Bc Xuc Tien Xuat Khau-25052010

BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 1

Bnquyn CcXctinthngmi(VIETRADE) 20LThngKit,HNi Tel:84.4.39347628Fax:84.4.39348142 Email:[email protected] Website:http://www.vietrade.gov.vn Bo co cthchinvis phi hp ca nhmnghin cu thuc Trung tm Nghin cu chnh sch v pht trin (DEPOCEN) gm: NguynNgcAnh,NguyncNht,TrnThanhThy,NguynThTng Anh,LThanhThy,PhmThMHnh,TrnThKiuMinh,NguynTh MinhTh,NguynHngQun.

2 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

CcXctinthngmi(VIETRADE) www.vietrade.gov.vn

BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010 NHXUTBNLAONGXHI



MC LC

LI M U ...................................................................................................................................... 7 PHN I: GII THIU V PHNG PHP 9

1. Mc ch v ngha.......................................................................................................................... 9 2. Phm vi v ni dung nghin cu ....................................................................................................... 11 3. Phng php nghin cu ................................................................................................................ 11PHN II: PHN TCH TNG QUT TNH HNH XUT KHU CA VIT NAM TRONG GIAI ON 2008 2009 15

1. Tng quan v hot ng xut khu cc nm 2008, 2009v nh hng xut khu nm 2010 ................................................................................................... 15

1.1 Tnh hnh cc mt hng xut khu ch lc: kim ngch v th trng .............................................. 16 1.2 Nhu cu th gii v nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam:c hi xut khu v pht trin th trng ................................................................................ 23

1.2.1 Xu hng nhu cu ca th gii trong giai on 2008-2009.......................................................23 1.2.2 Nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam...............................................................................................24 1.3 Cnh tranh v cc ro cn thng mi .................................................................................... 26 1.4 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam vcc Hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc ............................................................ 30

1.4.1 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam 2008-2009........................................................30 1.4.2 Cc hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc.........................................................33 1.5 nh gi xu hng hng ha xut khu .................................................................................. 35 1.6 nh gi xu hng th trng xut khu ................................................................................. 36Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 5

1.6.1 nh gi tnh hnh xut khu ca Vit Namvo mt s th trng chnh (s dng m hnh trng lc).........................................................36

1.6.2 So snh gia tim nng v thc t xut khu ca Vit Nam vi tng th trng .......................39 2. nh gi nng lc doanh nghip xut khu v cc nhn t quyt nh nng cao nng lc cnh tranh............... 41 2.1 Nng lc sn xut xut khu (border-in) ................................................................................. 42 2.2 Nng lc tip cn th trng th gii (border-out) ..................................................................... 44 2.3 Li th so snh v nng lc cnh tranh ca doanh nghip xut khu:Cc yu t quyt nh thnh cng trong cnh tranh................................................................... 48

2.4 Tc ng ca vic gia nhp WTO v cc khu vc mu dch t do (FTA)i vi mt s ngnh hng xut khu v doanh nghip xut khu ................................................ 53 2.4.1 Tc ng tch cc.........................................................................................................................53 2.4.2 Tc ng tiu cc ........................................................................................................................58 PHN III: D BO V CC KHUYN NGH 61

1. D bo chung v xu hng th trng xut khu ................................................................................... 611.1 Tiu dng ca khi OECD st gim .......................................................................................... 61 1.2 S tri dy ca cc th trng Chu ....................................................................................... 63

2. D bo v tng kim ngch v tc tng trng 2010 ........................................................................... 65 3. D bo v xu hng sn phm v th trng xut khu c th cho giai on 2010-2011 ................................ 67 4. D bo v kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam n nm 2020 .................................................................. 73 5. Cc khuyn ngh thay i cn thit v chnh sch nhm nng cao nng lc xut khu ................................... 75 5.1 Khuyn ngh v cc chnh sch ca Nh nc ........................................................................... 76 5.2 Khuyn ngh v chnh sch xc tin xut khu .......................................................................... 76 5.3 Khuyn ngh v hng ha xut khu v th trng mc tiu ........................................................ 79 5.4 Khuyn ngh v vic tham gia chui gi tr ton cu (Global value chain) ....................................... 80 5.5 Khuyn ngh chng trnh hnh ng .................................................................................... 80PH LC 1: M T M HNH TRNG LC ............................................................................................ 85 PH LC 2: M T PHNG PHP D BO TRUNG BNH TRT ........................................................... 87 PH LC 3: KT QU KHO ST DOANH NGHIP BAN U.................................................................... 89 TI LIU THAM KHO....................................................................................................................... 93


LI M U

Giai on 20 nm i mi va qua, tnh t nm 1988 n nm 2008, nhdubctinyntngvtngtrngxutkhucaVitNamcv kimngchvkhilnghnghacngnhccumthngxutkhu.Tl kimngchxutkhutrntngGDPcaVitNamtngt30%vouthp k 1990 ln n 70% vo nm 2008. Tc tng trng kim ngch xut khu trungbnhtrongtongiaionnykhong19%/nmcngviccumthng cthayitheohngtngttrnghmlnggitrcngnghipva dnghasnphmtrongtngngnhhngxutkhuchlc.Mcdqutrnh thayinydinravitccnkhimtnnhnggpphnquantrng trongvicgivnghotngxutkhuvnnhkinhtcaVitNamtrong thigianqua,cbittrongnm2009khicuckhnghongkinhttoncu tc ng trc tip n hng lot cc th trng xut khu quan trng ca ncta. Bn cnh nhng thnh tu n tng t c, hot ng xut khu caVitNamtrongnm2009cngbclnhngyuimctnhchtchin lc bt buc chng ta phi c nhng quyt sch t nn mng cho pht trinxutkhubnvngtronggiaionphttrinkinht20112020.Nhng yuimnytntitrongmtthigiandinhngkhngcchng giiquyttngcbngccchnhschphhpvngbtbntrong,cng vi nhng nh hng t cc bin ng mi trong xu hng pht trin ca thngmiquct,tchngtatrcslachnhoctiptcconng nhhinnayviktqunhntinlhiuqucautsnxutchoxut khucxuhnggimdnhocphitmravhinthchanhngnhnt thnhcngnhm: (1)thayiccu hnghavthtrngxutkhuph hpvichinlcvtrnhphttrinkinht,(2)nngcaogitrgiatng


chosnphm,v(3)xydngnntngbnvngchosnxutxutkhuda trn kh nng cnh tranh ca doanh nghip v trnh cng ngh v nng sutlaong. Trong bi cnh , vi chc nng tham vn v thc hin chnh sch thngmitronglnhvcxctinthngmivphttrinxutkhu,btu tnm2009,CcXctinthngmi(BCngThng)tchcthchinBo coxctinxutkhuthngninvimcchxemxt,nhgihotng xut khu tng nm v xut nhng khuyn ngh chnh sch v bin php thchincthvtrunghn,trongkhungthigian23nm.Bococngc thccoilngunthngtinthamkhophcvcngtcxydngviu chnh chin lc xut khu quc gia cho thp k 20112020 v cc n pht trinxutkhu5nmtronggiaionny. CcXctinthngmixinchnthnhcmnTrungtmNghincu chnh sch v pht trin (DEPOCEN) phi hp thc hin bo co ny. Chngticngxinghinhnvnhgicaokinnggpcaccchuyn giaquctvtrongnccaDnVIE/61/94HtrXctinthngmiv PhttrinxutkhutiVitNamvphngphplunvcutrc,nidung caboco. Hotngxctinthngmibaogmnhiulnhvc,tuynhintrong khunkhbocony,chngtichcptihotngxctinxutkhu. Trong ln xut bn u tin ny, chc chn bo co cn nhng khim khuytvhnchkhngthtrnhkhivhnhthc,cutrcvnidung.V vy,CcXctinthngmirtmongnhncnhngkinnggpv phnbincaccchuyngiavngnghipchtlngcabocotrong nhngnmtingycngnngcao,nggpthitthcvocngtcthamvn xydngchnhschthngmicaBCngThngvxutccbinphp trin khai chnh sch kp thi v thc tin nhm p ng yu cu pht trin ngycngcaocatnc.

THNGHICctrngCcXctinthngmi


PHN I

GII THIU V PHNG PHP1. MC CH V NGHA Sgiatngmnhmcatoncuhokinhtvtdohothngmii hiccqucgiaphicchinlchinhpphhpvonnkinhtthgiiv khuvc.HinhpvonnkinhtthgiichophpVitNamtndngc thtrngthgiitoln,thuhtcvn,nmbtccngngh,kthut vqunltintin,tngbctomtingcngnhnctrnhphhp vinhucuphttrincngnghiphini.Trongnhngnmgny,mc hinhpcannkinhtVitNamvonnkinhtthgiingycngtr nn su sc. c bit, nm 2007, Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin ca T chc Thng mi Th gii, nm 2008 v 2009, cng vi vic hi nhp a phng, VitNammphnvkktcchipnhthngmitdosongphng vinhiuqucgiavvnglnhthtrongkhuvcvtrnthgii. Trong sut qu trnh hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii, xut khu (XK) caVitNamngmtvaitrngycngquantrngtrongnnkinhtquc dn.Theos liuthngk,tlkimngchxutkhutrnGDPtnglin tc t mc khong 30% t u nhng nm 1990 ln ti 70% vo nm 2008 (XemBiu1). Hinhpsuhnvonnkinhtthgiicngngnghavivicnn kinhtVitNamsphthucnhiuhnvonnkinhtthgii,ctheomt tch cc v tiu cc. Khng hong kinh t th gii 20082009 c tc ng


khngnhnnnkinhtcaVitNam,cbitlivikhuvcxutkhu. Biu1chothytrongnm2009kimngchXKcaVitNamgimstso vinhngnmtrc.TheosliucaTngccHiquan,kimngchxut khunm2009caVitNamcht56,58tUSD,gim9,3%sovinm2008. Do,VitNamcnxydngmtchinlcymnhphttrinxutkhu hnghophhpvitnhhnhvnhucucathtrngthgii.Trongbi cnhny,CcXctinthngmiphihpvinhmnghincuthucTrung tmNghincuChnhschvPhttrin(DEPOCEN)xydngBocoXc tinxutkhu20092010.BIU 1: T l kim ngch xut khu tnh trn GDP ca Vit Nam (1990-2009)T l kim ngch xut khu tnh trn GDP (%)

100 80 60 40 20 019 9 19 0 9 19 1 92 19 9 19 3 9 19 4 95 19 9 19 6 97 19 9 19 8 99 20 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 03 20 0 20 4 05 20 0 20 6 0 20 7 08 20 09Vit Nam

Ngun: Marketlineinfo: http://www.marketlineinfo.com

Mc tiu ca bo co l a ra nhng phn tch nhn nh v tnh hnh xutkhucaVitNamtrongnhngnmgnytmranhhngcho nhngnmtiptheo,ngthicngaranhngkhuynnghchnhsch nngcaonnglcxutkhu. p ng mc tiu , bo co c xy dng thnh ba phn chnh: (i) PhntchtngquttnhhnhxutnhpkhucaVitNamtrongccnm2008, 2009 v nh hng nm 2010; (ii) D bo kh nng xut nhp khu ca Vit Namgiaion20102011;v(iii)Cckhuynnghvchnhschnhmnng caonnglcxutkhucaVitNam.


2. PHM VI V NI DUNG NGHIN CU Nm2008v2009lnhngnmmnnkinhtthgiicngnhkinht VitNamtriquanhiubinng.Vicphntchcngnhdboxutkhu caVitNamchcchnsgprtnhiukhkhn.Mtphnldoyutbt nhgnlinvimitrngkinhtvmquct,vdnhngitakhng th bit mt cch chc chn l khi no nhng nn kinh t ln ca th gii s thot ra khi khng hong. Nhng l do quan trng hn l khi khng hong xyrasdntinhngv,nhngthayivmtcutrccannkinht thgii;iunykhinchoccthamscannkinhtthayi.Vvyvics dngccs liutrong qukhc lng tham s dngchomc chd bo,khimccthamsthayi,lmtcngvicytnhmohimvrt dmcsailm.Do,trongphmvinghincucabocony,nhmnghin cutptrungvonhnnhvphntchnhngxuhngthngmiln v ang din ra trong nn kinh t th gii song song vi phn tch kh nng xutkhucaVitNam.Mcdbocokthpccphngphpthngk d bo vi kin ca cc chuyn gia thng mi nhiu nm kinh nghim ti VitNam(doanhnghipxutkhu)vtithtrngnhpkhu(cquani dinthngmiVitNamtincngoi),nhngnhnitrn,trongmt mitrngytnhbtnhnhhinnay,ccconsclngnhvy,ch nnsdngthamkho. Ngoiphnmu,bococxydngthnhhaiphnchnh.PhnII: Phntchtng quttnhhnhxutkhu caVitNam tronggiai on2008 2009; v Phn III: D bo v cc khuyn ngh. Trong phn II, bn cnh phn phntchtngquttnhhnhxutkhutronggiaion20082009,bococn isuvophntchcth10ngnhhngxutkhuminhncaVitNamv nhng th trng xut khu ln cho tng ngnh hng. Ngoi ra, trong phn ny, bo co cng cp n nng lc cung ng ca cc doanh nghip xut khuVitNam.TrongphnIII,bocoaranhngdbovtnhhnhth trng th gii trong 2 nm ti, tm nhn n nm 2015 da trn nhng tnh toncanhmchuyngia,bngtnghpkincquanidinthngmi VitNamtincngoivnghincucaccnhkinhtncngoi. 3. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU thc hin yu cu nghin cu ca bo co, nhm chuyn gia s dng kt hp mt s cc phng php nghin cu t tng quan ti liu, xy dngmhnh,tinhnhiutrathca,nphntchvdbo.Qutrnh nghincucchialmbagiaionnhsau:Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 11

GIAI ON I: Thu thp thng tin,baogm(i)Gpgcccnbqunlxctin thng mi, cc chuyn gia, doanh nghip ngnh hng; (ii) Xc nh cc i tngsckhost,ngnhhngvmthngkhost,cctiuchthng tincnthuthptngng;(iii)Tphpvtngquancctiliu,nghincu trc v nng lc, thc trng v d bo xut khu ca Vit Nam vi cc ngnhhnglinquan;cctiliunghincutrcvthtrngthgii vi cc ngnh hng tng ng. Bo co nghin cu cng s dng cc khi nimccctchcnhNgnhngthgii(WB),Dinnkinhtth gii, Qu tin t quc t (IMF), Trung tm thng mi quc t (ITC) a ra nh b ch s h tr xut khu, ch s tp trung thng mi, b ch s v thngmiqucgia GIAI ON II: Thng nht phng php iu tra v phng php d bo c c mt ci nhn tng quan t nhiu pha, nhm chuyn gia xc nhcnphithuthpthngtinvccchthcnghincukhcnhaumi phncabivit.Cth,phntngquanvhotngxutkhucaVitNam cthchinthngquanghincutibn.Sliucsdngtrongphn nylsliucthuthptccbngnhcngnhccnhgiclpca cctchckinhtncngoinhNgnhngthgii,Trungtmthngmi quct phnhaicabivitphntchvnnglccadoanhnghipxutkhu vcchthcnngcaonnglccnhtranh,nhmchuyngiakthps dngphngphpthuthpsliuscpsdngkincaccchuyngia ti cc c quan i din thng mi Vit Nam nc ngoi v cc doanh nghipxutkhuVitNamcngvisdngccsliuthcp,cbitl bocoktqukhostnnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghipxutkhuVit NamdoTngccThngktinhnhnm2008. Trongphndbo,nhmchuyngiasdngphngphpmhnhcn cvosliukimngchxutkhucaVitNamtrong14nmt19952008. Ngoi ra, nhm chuyn gia cng tham kho cc d bo m cc t chc nc ngoi nh s dng kt qu nghin cu t trang web http://www.marketlineinfo.comngiccthcnhiugctipcnkhc nhauividbovtnhhnhxutkhucaVitNamtrongthigianti. GIAI ON III: B sung s liu, xy dng m hnh v d bo Trn c s thng nht v phng php nghin cu giai on II, nhm chuyngiatinhnhthuthpbsungsliu.Ccsliuthcpcthuthp


tccboco,ttrangwebvsliuthngkcaccb,ngnhvcctchc quctnhIMF,WB,ITCSliuscpcthuthpvtnghpcnc voktquccphiuiutracgiticccquanidinthngmica VitNamHoaK,NhtBn,TrungQucvccdoanhnghipxutkhu VitNam. MhnhdbochotnhhnhxutkhucaVitNamnm2010cla chn trn c s ba phng php ca trung bnh trt l phng php trung bnh trt gin n, trung bnh trt c tnh n sai lch tuyt i ca kim ngch xutkhuquaccnm vtrungbnhtrt tnh nsai lchtngi cakimngchxutkhuquaccnm.Phngphptrungbnhtrtctnh nsailchtuyticakimngchxutkhuquaccnmlphngphpc lchchunnhnhtclachnaradbochokimngchxut khunm2010caVitNamvoccthtrngchnhnhHoaK,NhtBn, Chuu



PHN II

PHN TCH TNG QUT TNH HNH XUT KHU CA VIT NAM TRONG GIAI ON 2008 20091. TNG QUAN V HOT NG XUT KHU CC NM 2008, 2009 V NH HNG XUT KHU NM 2010 Trong giai on 19862008, Vit Nam lin tc t mc tng trng kim ngchxutkhumccao(trungbnhkhong19%/nm),caohnmctrung bnhtrongkhuvcvtrnthgii(XemBiu2).TheosliucaTngcc Thngk,nm2008,kimngchxutkhucaVitNamt62,7tlaM (tng29,1%sovinm2007),tlxutkhutrnGDPlntitrn70%.1Tuy nhin,cngtheonhgicaTngccThngk,mcdtctngtrng kimngchhnghoxutkhunm2008sovinm2007khntng,nhng nu loi tr tr gi ti xut khu st, thp, vng v yu t tng gi ca 8 mt hngchyu(duth,than,go,cph,caosu,httiu,htiu,ch)th kimngchhnghoxutkhuchtng13,5%.2

1 2

VietnamCountryAnalysisReportIndepthPESTLEInsights,August2009

Tuynhin,mtimnglul,mcdkimngchxutkhutmctngtrngcaonhngVitNamvn trongtnhtrngnhpsiu.Tnhcnm2008,nhpsiul18tUSD,tng26,8%sovimcnhpsiunm2007v bng28,8%tngkimngchhnghoxutkhu.


Ngc li vi nm 2008, bc tranh kinh t ni chung v xut khu ni ringcaVitNamtrongnm2009cphnmm.Donhhngnngn cacuckhnghongkinhthinnay,kimngchxutkhunm2009cht 56,58tUSD,vimctngtrngm(gim9,7%)sovinm2008.Sgimst nymtphndotcngkhchquancuckhnghonghinnay,mtphn khcldochnhsccnhtranhhngxutkhucaVitNam.BIU 2: Kim ngch xut khu Vit Nam v tc tng ca kim ngch xut khu giai on 1990-2009

Tc tng kim ngch xut khu (%)

Kim ngch xut khu (Triu USD)

80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

s

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

Kim ngch Tc tng

19 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 9 20 9 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 09

Ngun: Marketlineinfo: http://www.marketlineinfo.com

1.1 Tnh hnh cc mt hng xut khu ch lc: kim ngch v th trng Theo k hoch nm 2008, xut khu s t kim ngch 58,6 t USD, tng 22% sovi nm2007.Trn thct, xut khunm2008 tkimngch62,7 t USD,vt4,7tUSDsovikhoch ra.Tuynhin,hotngxutkhu nm 2009 khng nh kt qu t c ca cc nm trc. Tnh n ht thng12nm2009,tngkimngchxutkhucaVitNamt56,58tUSD, gim9,7%sovicngknmtrc,khngtmctiuratrongKhoch phttrinkinhtxhinm2009vikimngchxutkhul71tUSD.Bng1 chothyditcngcakhnghongkinht,phnlnccngnhhngxut khu u b nh hng, th hin qua kim ngch xut khu gim tng i nhiusovicngknm2008(duthgim40%;dtmaygim1,3%;giydp gim15,8%;gogim8%;ggim10%).


Ngoi tc ng trc tip ca khng hong kinh t dn ti nhu cu st gim, mt s mt hng xut khu ch lc gp kh khn do phi i mt vi nhngrocnthngmimidoccncarahnchnhpkhutrong tnh hnh nn kinh t ca h ang gp kh khn. Mt iu nhn thy l cc hnh vi bo h thng mi ngy cng tinh vi, nht l ti cc th trng xut khulncaVitNam.BNG 1: Kim ngch xut khu hng ho ca Vit Nam nm 2009Gi tr xut khu 2008 (t USD) Tng gi tr xut khu Du th Dt may Giy dp Thy sn Go G v sn phm g Cao su C ph in t, my tnh v linh kin My mc thit b v dng c ph tng 62,685 10,357 9,120 4,768 4,510 2,894 2,829 1,603 2,111 2,638 1,860 Gi tr xut khu 2009 (t USD) 56,584 6,210 9,004 4,015 4,207 2,662 2,550 1,199 1,710 2,774 2,028 Gi tr xut khu 2009 so vi 2008 (%) 90,3 60 98,7 84,2 93,3 92 90,1 74,8 81 105,1 109,1

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k (2009)

Mtiuhinnhinlngoivictngslngxutkhuthvictnggi trxutkhucnphthucmtphnvogithgiivnhngthtrngxut khu ln. Do khi nhng th trng ny c bin ng th kim ngch xut khubnhhng.Tuynhin,sstgimkimngchxutkhukhngchn thun l do cc kh khn khch quan m ng thi cng cho thy sc cnh tranh ca cc mt hng xut khu cn hn ch, nng lc cnh tranh ca cc doanhnghipchacao.DoVitNamhinhpvonnkinhtthgiivit cchlmtnnkinhtnh,ctrnhphttrinthp,phnlnccmthng xutkhu umi ch dng li dng th, s ch, gia cng nn t gi tr gia tng (go, c ph, giy da, du th). Do kinh t Vit Nam s chu nhiu bin ng trc din bin bt li ca nnkinh t thgii.Ccmthngxut


khuchaadng,phongph,slngccmthngxutkhumickim ngch ln, tc tng trng nhanhchanhiu.Xutkhu chyudavo khaithclithsosnhsncmchakhaithcclithcnhtranhthng quavicxydngccngnhcngnghipcmilinktchtchvinhau hnhthnhchuigitrgiatngxutkhuln.Khngnhngth,VitNamvn chatndngtritlichtvicgianhpWTO,cchipnhthngmi songphngvkhuvckktgiaVitNamvccitckhaithcht timnngcaccthtrnglnnhHoaK,EU,TrungQuc CuckhnghongkinhttoncunratquIVnm2008tcng mnh ti hot ng xut khu ca Vit Nam. Trong nhng thng cui nm 2009,nnkinhtthgiibtucduhiuphchi,ccmthngxut khuchlccaVitNamtngnhvlngxutkhunhngdogitrn thtrngthgiithphnsovigitrckhnghongnnkimngchxut khugimrrt. Diyltngquanvtnhhnhxutkhuca10mthngxutkhu chlccaVitNamtrong2nm20082009(10mthngtkimngchxut khucaonhttrong2nm20082009). Du th TheosliucaTngccThngk,nm2008,xutkhuduthcaVit Namtkimngch10,3tUSD,tng21%sovikimngchnm2007.Tnhn htnm2009,xutkhuduthtkimngch6,21tUSD,gimti40%kim ngchxutkhusovinm2008.Ccthtrngchnhnhpkhuduthca VitNamlAustralia,Singapore,Malaysia,HoaKvTrungQuc.Dokhng hong kinh t, gi du th trn th gii lin tc gim mnh. Nu vo thng 7 nm2008giduvokhong147USD/thngthnthng10nm2009gi duchvokhongtrndi70USD/thng.Dovickimngchxutkhu duthcanctatrongnm2009gimgnmtnasovinmtrcliu hontoncthdonc.Mtnguynnhnkhcdntisgimstca kimngchduthxutkhuldothchinmctiugimxutkhuduth ra nc ngoi ca Nh nc trong Chin lc pht trin xut khu giai on 20012010. Dt may TngkimngchxutkhuhngdtmaycaVitNamnm2008t9,12 t USD, tng 18% so vi nm 2007. Tnh n ht nm 2009, kim ngch xut18 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

khu hng dt may t khong 9 t USD, dn u v mt gi tr xut khu trong s cc mt hng xut khu ch lc, tuy nhin so vi nm 2008 gim 1,3%.Ccthtrngnhpkhudtmaychnhcancta:HoaK,EU,Nht Bn,iLoan,Canada. Cthnhnthy,nhhngcakhnghongkinhtnxutkhumt hngdtmaylkhngln,mtphnldodtmaythucnhmccmthng phcvtiudngmangtnhthityu.ylmthngccutnhycmi vithunhpngitiudng,dokhithunhpcangitiudngthayi, lngcuvmthngnythayikhngngk.Mtthunlikhctrnth trngdtmayxutkhuhinnaylTrungQuc,ithcnhtranhchnhca VitNam,angcxuhnggimdnsthamgiatrongcclnhvcxutkhu cgitrgiatngthptptrungngunlcsnxutvoccmthngcgi trgiatngcaohn,dophnnogimbttnhkhclitcacnhtranhtrn thtrngdtmayxutkhumVitNamhinanglmtchthtchcc. TheomtnghincugnycaVinKhoahcXhiVitNam,ngnhdt maybtunhnlicnhngxutkhuvislngngk.Doc thkvnglsangnm2010,dtmaycthtcmctngtrngbng mctngtrngcanhngnmtrckhnghong. Giy dp TngkimngchxutkhugiydpVitNamtrongnm2008t4,767t USD,tng20%sovinm2007,trongkhinm2009t4,015tUSD,gim15,8% sovinmtrc.ThtrngxutkhuchyucamthnggiydplEUv HoaK.Tinhngthtrngny,hnggiydpxutkhucaVitNamcnh tranhvimthngcngloixutkhutccncBraxin,n,Campuchia, Banladesh. Tng t nh ngnh dt may, ngnh giy dp xut khu ca Vit Namkhng b nh hng qunng n bi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii. TheobocominhtcaBCngThng,nhiudoanhnghiptrongnc k c n hng sn xut n nh vi sn lng tng ng nm trc v pngckhong7080%nnglcsnxuthinc.Thmch,mtsdoanh nghipcnlmvotnhtrngthiunhncngpngnhucusnxutcc nhngxutkhu.CcdoanhnghipsnxutVitNam(trongncvlin doanh)ulnhngnvcungcplntrongccchuicungcpdagiyca cc thng hiu ln v uy tn nh Nike, Adidas, Puma. Thay v nhng nh hngkhnghong,snxutdagiyVitNamangchunhngtcngtiu cc ca cc hng ro k thutnh thuchng bn phgi.V d in hnh l xuthintnhtrngnhiuitccangnhdchchuynnhmysnxut


giysangCampuchiavncnyangchngthuquanuiGSPca EUvkhngchuthuchngbnphgigiycmda.3 Thy sn Nm 2008, tng kim ngch xut khu hng thy sn ca Vit Nam tng 18%sovinm2007,t4,5tUSD.Tngkimngchxutkhuthysnnm 2009 t 4,207 t USD, gim 6,7% so vi nm 2008. Cc bn hng ln trong ngnhthysncaVitNamlEU,NhtBn,HoaKvHnQuc. HoaKl th trngnhpkhuthysn lnth hai caVitNam,sau NhtBn.XutkhuthysnvoHoaKtrongthigianquakhnggimm ngclicncxuhngtng(mcdthtrngHoaKchunhhngrt nng n ca cuc khng hong) l do thy sn cng l mt hng c cu t co gintheothunhp,dotchutcngcassuythoikinht. Go Theo s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, trong nm 2008, xut khu go ca VitNamtngsovinm2007t4,6triutn(tng3,3%)vikimngchl2,8 tUSD(tng99%,tnhtheogiFOB).Nm2009,tngkimngchxutkhugo caVitNamt2,662tUSD,gim6,7%sovinm2008.Ccthtrngxut khugolncaVitNamhinnaylPhilippin,Indonesia,CubavIraq.c bit,trongnmnay,tnglnggoxutkhucaVitNamsangChuPhiv Trungngtngmnh. G v sn phm g Sau cc thng suy gim lin tip v gi tr xut khu, n thng 7 nm 2009,thtrnggvsnphmgcduhiuphchi.Tnhnhtnm 2009,mthngnytkimngchxutkhu2,55tUSD,gim10%sovicng knm2008.HoaK,EUvNhtBnvnl3nhnhpkhuglnnht caVitNam.Sdkimngchxutkhugbinngmnhhnkimngch ccngnhdtmay,goldoglmthngtmangtnhthityu.Mthng nyccukhnhycmtheothunhp,docththynhhngcacuc khng hong ti chnh n ngnh l r nt hn n cc ngnh c cu t nhy cm theo thu nhp. V l , s phc hi ca ngnh s din ra chm hn cc ngnhktrn.

3

Bocotmtthotngngnhcngnghipvthngmithng11v11thngnm2009caBCngThng


Cao su Nm2008,xutkhucaosucaVitNamt645nghntn,tngng vi1,6tUSD.Xutkhumthngnynm2009t1,199tUSD,gim25,2% sovicngknm2008.Theodoncaccnhkinhthc,gictrnth trngcao su ni ringv nhm thtrngnguyn liuth ni chung s hi phctrckhikinhttoncuhiphc,dohotngcaccquuctrn thtrngkhn(futuremarket)ivinguynliuth. C ph KimngchxutkhucphcaVitNamnm2009,t1,71tUSD,gim 19%sovicngknm2008.CcncnhpkhuchnhcacphVitNaml c,Italia,TyBanNha,B,c,HoaKithcnhtranhlnnhtcaVit NamlBraxin,ColombiavIndonesia.Xtvgitr,kimngchxutkhucph VitNamtnm2001nnaytngtrungbnhkhong30%/nm.cbitlsau khigianhpWTO,kimngchxutkhucphcaVitNamtngti53%(theo thngkcaHiphiCphCacaoVitNamVICOFA),VitNamtrongnhiu nmlinlmttrongccncxutkhucphhnguthgii. in t, my tnh v linh kin Xutkhumthngint,mytnhvlinhkincaVitNamnm2009 t kim ngch 2,774 t USD, tng 5,1% so vi nm 2008. Phn u n nm 2010,kimngchxutkhumthngnyst5tUSD.Ccthtrngnhp khunhmhngint,mytnhvlinhkincaVitNaml:HoaK,Nht Bn,ThiLan,TrungQuc,Singapore,HLan... int,mytnhvlinhkinlmthngctimnngphttrin,hahn manglikimngchxutkhulnchoVitNam,mtphnldotrongnhngnm gnylnsngutncngoivolnhvcin,intvsnxutlinh kinmytnhVitNamtngmnhvinhiudnln,emlinguncungdi dochoxutkhupngnhucukhnglvmthngintvlinhkin mytnhcathgiivimcnhpkhucao(khong500tUSDnm2007). My mc, thit b v dng c ph tng Nm2009,xutkhumthngmymcthitbvdngcphtngt 2,028tUSD,tng9,1%sovinm2008.Songsongvivicxutkhumymc thitb,VitNamcnglncnhpkhunhiumthngnyphcvcho snxuttrongnc.Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 21

BNG 2: Kim ngch xut khu phn theo th trng v mt hng ch lc ca tng th trngTh trng Nm 2008 Mt hng ch lc Da giy EU Hng dt may Hi sn Du th ASEAN Go My tnh v ph kin my tnh Hng dt may Hoa K Da giy g Du th Nht Bn Hi sn Hng dt may Cao su Trung Quc Than Du th Kim ngch (nghn USD) 2.508.276 1.703.627 1.149.207 2.824.388 1.524.966 731.637 5.105.740 1.075.130 1.063.990 2.177.391 830.154 820.056 1.056.988 742.844 603.530 Nm 2009 Mt hng ch lc Da giy Hng dt may Hi sn Du th Go My tnh v ph kin my tnh Hng dt may g Da giy Hng dt may Hi sn Dy in v dy cp in Than Cao su Sn v cc sn phm t sn Kim ngch (nghn USD) 1.710.649 1.442.029 959.455 2.209.413 1.227.565 586.884 4.994.915 1.100.183 1.038.826 954.075 760.725 63.9502 935.843 856.712 506.104 7,24% 10,72% 13,62% 11,02% 18,93% 19,89% 16,26% 13,62% 17,31% 15,08% T trng trong tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam (%) Nm 2008 Nm 2009

Ngun: Tnh ton ca nhm nghin cu da trn s liu ca Tng cc Thng k v Tng cc Hi quan

iunglulmcdHoaKvNhtBnlccthtrngxutkhu chnhcaVitNam,nhngxutkhucaVitNamvohaithtrngnycn rtkhimtnsovinhucunhpkhucah.Nm2008,xutkhucaVit Nam vo Hoa K v Nht Bn ch chim ln lt 0,65% v 0,92% tng kim ngchnhpkhucahaincny.TrgihngxutkhucaVitNamsang TrungQuc,qucgiangdnnhtthgii,cngcht4,53tUSD,chim 7,2%tngtrgihngxutkhucncnm2008. Bncnh,sliuthngknm2009chothysstgimngkkim ngchxutkhusangnhngthtrngchlc.Kimngchhnghoxutkhu sangthtrngHoaKt11,3tUSD,gim4%sovicngknm2008;tip22 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

nlEUt8,7tUSD,gim22%;ASEANt7,9tUSD,gim27%;Nht Bnt6,3tUSD,gim34%4.Trongkhi,thng12/2008,VitNamvNht Bn,sau9phinmphnktnm2005,kkthipnhitckinht JVEPAmthipnhtdohathngmi,dchv,bohutvkhuyn khch thng mi in t gia Vit Nam v Nht Bn. Tuy nhin, iu ny cngkhngcuvncsgimsttrongtrgihngxutkhuVitNam sangNhtBn,khiNhtBnangtrongthiksuythoikinht.Nhngcon strongnm2009lichothykimngchxutkhucaVitNamsangNht Bnstgimmnhnhttrongccthtrngxutkhuchnh. Kim ngch xut khu nm 2009 gim 9,7% so vi nm 2008, c th c giithchdonhhngcakhnghongkinhtlmchogicccmthng xutkhugimtrongkhislngxutkhuvntng.Cth,mtsmthng xut khu ch lc tng v lng xut khu nhng do gi trn th trng th giithpnnkimngchnm2009gim,tronggotng32,8%vlngv gim7,8%vkimngch;cphtng16,8%vlng,gim17,3%vkimngch; duthtng8%vlng,gim43%vkimngch;thantng7,1%vlng, gim19,4%vkimngch(GSO,2009). Tuynhin,mttrongnhngnguynnhnquantrngdntitngtrng m trongkim ngch xut khu Vit Nam nm2009 lvic tptrungln hot ngxutkhucaVitNamvomtsthtrngnhtnhtrongkhinhng th trng ny u b nh hng nng n ca suy thoi kinh t th gii (kim ngchxutkhucaVitNamsang20thtrnglnnhttkhong85%tng kimngchxutkhu5;chtnhringxutkhusang3thtrngchnhHoaK, NhtBn,EUchim60%kimngchxutkhucaVitNam)6. 1.2 Nhu cu th gii v nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam: c hi xut khu v pht trin th trng 1.2.1 Xu hng nhu cu ca th gii trong giai on 2008-2009 Giaion20082009,dobnhhngcacuckhnghongkinhtton cu,nhucunhpkhucathgiigimhnsovinm2007.Tuynhin, nhng mt hng xut khu mi nhn ca Vit Nam vn l nhng mt hng xutkhutimnngtrnthtrngthgii,cthnh sau:Nhm hng nng lng(duthvthan)vncthtrngxutkhulndonguncunghn4 5 6

TngccThngk,Bocotnhhnhkinhtxhinm2009vsliutTngccHiquan Theotnhtontsliuthngksbnm2008caTngccthngk Vietnam:CountryAnalysisReportIndepthPESTLEInsights,August2009


hp v nhu cu s dng nng lng ngy cng tng trn th gii. Nhm hng nng,lm,thyhisncngcthtrngxutkhulnvcbit,yhuht lnhngthtrngtruynthng,ckimngchnhpkhulnnhNhtBn, Hoa K Ring vi nhm hng cng nghip ch bin, y l nhm quan trng nht,chimttrngtrn70%tngkimngchxutkhu.Dtmay,giydp,sn phmg,nhavdycpinlnhngmthngcccthtrngnhp khunhiunht.Ngoira,mtsmthngnhtixch,vali,d,snphm t cao su, sn phm t gang thp hay tu thuyn cc loi u l nhng mt hng c nhu cu nhp khu cao trong nm 2009, mc trn 30%; Ring mt hngtuthuynlnhntminicnhgilmthngctctng trngnhanhtrongccuhngxutkhucaVitNam. 1.2.2 Nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu a ti nhng bin ng v s lng,kimngch,ccuthtrngxutkhutrongxuhngxutkhuchung ca Vit Nam. Nhng bin ng ny cho thy s thay i v mt lng xut khutrcbicnhkhkhnchungcannkinhttoncu,ngthicng cho thy phn no nng lc cnh tranh xt trn gc nhn quc gia trong xut khucaVitNamcnnhiuhnch. Khnghongkinhtnrattyustcngntnhhnhtraoihng hagiaccnctrnthgii,tuynhintcngnhthnovvimc rasaoscnphthucvonilchaysckhngcatngnnkinht v mc hi nhp ca nn kinh t trong nn kinh t ton cu. c s nhgiy,tondinxttrngcqucgiavnnglcxutkhuca Vit Nam, bn cnh mt ci nhn ngn hn vi cc thng tin cp nht, cn c mtcinhnbaoquthntrongmtkhongthigiandixcnhc vtrcaVitNamttrongtngquanviccqucgiaxutkhukhctrong khuvcvtrnthgii.Trongphnny,nhmnghincudatrnbChs thngmi(TradePerformanceIndex)caTrungtmThngmiquct(ITC InternationalTradeCenter)aramtsnhgivkhnngxutkhu caVitNam.McdbChsnychtnhtonsliutnm2002nnm 2006, song k t nm 2006 n nay, c th thy c cu nn kinh t Vit Nam khngthayinhiu,cngnghsnxutcngchacsthayiln,do chsnyvncnnguyngitrkinhttrongthiimhinti. Bng 3 di y tng hp cc ch s phn nh hot ng xut khu ca mtsqucgia,trongcVitNam,theotnhtoncaTrungtmThng miQuct(InternationalTradeCenterITC).Bng3nychothysthayi24 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

vkhnngxutkhuca5ncChu,trongcVitNamtrongkhong thigian5nm(20022006).NibtnhttrongbnglTrungQucviccch s rt n tng v thc trng xut khu, vi gi tr xut khu tng 3 ln ch trongvng5nm,ttrngtrongxutkhutoncucaTrungQuc(8,0831%) gp23,4lnttrngcaVitNam(0,3461%).Mcdvy,VitNamcnglmt trongsnhngncctcphttrinxutkhunhanhtrnthgii,t26% theo gi tr xut khu v 9% theo lng xut khu tnh trong nm 2006 (theo tnhtoncaITC).BNG 3. Ch s hot ng thng mi (TPI) ca mt s quc gia v vng lnh thQuc gia/ vng lnh th T trng trong xut khu ton cu (%) Tng trng trong gi tr xut khu (%) Tng trng trong lng xut khu (%) 2002 2006 21 2 8 2 9 S lng cc nh xut khu ln trong nc c gi tr xut khu t 100.000 USD tr ln 2002 4.495 3.041 2.925 2.923 1.578 2006 4.644 3.397 3.281 2.941 2.107 T trng ca gi tr 3 mt hng xut khu ln nht trong tng gi tr xut khu (%) 2002 8,9 22,9 12,4 21,5 28,1 2006 11 17,7 12,2 22,8 28,1

Gi tr xut khu (Nghn USD) 2002 2006 968.935.601 160.669.231 130.580.046 100.798.616 41.484.709

2002 5,1191 1,4788 1,0708 0,8987 0,2627

2006 8,0831 1,3403 1,0893 0,8409 0,3461

2002 -

2006 31 14 18 15 26

Trung Quc Malaysia Thi Lan Indonexia Vit Nam

325.595.970 95.058.291 68.107.865 57.158.717 16.706.053

Ngun: Trade Performance HS: Exports and Imports of all industries 2006, Trade Competitiveness Map, International Trade Center (ITC)

Tuynhin,cnggingnhTrungQuc,VitNamangphiimtvi mtthctlccmthngxutkhuclngxutkhuln,songgitrxut khucnchacao.Cthnusosnhviccnctrongkhuvc,chnghn nhMaylaysia,ththytuylngxutkhucancnychtng2%nhng to ra 14% tng trng trong gi tr xut khu; hay 8% gia tng v lngxutkhucaThiLantngngvivictnggitrxutkhunc nyti18%.Chcnlmmtphptnhkhngin,viginhMalaysiat cmctngtrngvlngxutkhu9%thvinnglcxutkhuhin ticancny,mctngtrngvgitrxutkhucthtngti63%trong khi i vi Vit Nam, thc t 9% gia tng trong lng xut khu ch tng ngvi26%giatngtronggitrxutkhu.iunychothymtsnc ngaytrongkhuvccnhngtinbhnhnsoviVitNamtrongvicto ragitrgiatngchohngxutkhu. Slngccnhxutkhulntrongnccgitrxutkhuhnghat 100.000 USD tr ln cng c ci thin r rt, cho thy kh nng xut khu cngnhvthngycngccithincaccdoanhnghipxutkhuVit Nam. iu ny c th d dng nhn thy v khi c trong tay mt lng hng


ha c gi tr ln, ngi xut khu t nhiu s c sc nh hng ti th trngvnhiungixutkhucscmnhthtrnghplislemli thmnhchoncxutkhu.Cnlurng,tuyslngccnhxutkhu lncaVitNamccithin,nhngyvnlconskhkhimtnv cnphicmrnghnna. Chsvttrngcagitr3mthngxutkhulnnhttrongtnggi trxutkhucnglmtchscnhiunghakinht.Ttrngnycngln cngchngttmquantrngca3mthngnytigitrxutkhucaquc gia.Trong5nclachnnghincu,ttrngnyVitNamllnnht (28,1%), cho thy i vi Vit Nam, 3 mt hng xut khu ch lc c vai tr quantrnghnctrongvictoragitrxutkhu,nhngngthicngcho thysphthuccaVitNamvo3mthngnyllnnht.Do,khic bin ng ca 3 mt hng ny trn th trng th gii, Vit Nam s l nc trongs5ncnghincuchunhhngnngnnhtcasbinng.Do ngoicctntivgitrgiatngthptronghngxutkhu,vslng hnchccnhxutkhuln,thvnphiadngccuhngxutkhu cngcncsquantmthchng. 1.3 Cnh tranh v cc ro cn thng mi iphvikhnghongkinhttrongncdostgimtngcugy ra,nm2009lnmmccncpdngnhiuhngroivithngmi quct.Vicpdngcchngrothngmimtphnldochnghabo h, ng thi mt phn cng l m bo chnh sch phc hi kinh t ca tngnc.7Tuynhin,nunhttcccncupdngchnhschboh nythnguycslrtnghimtrngchonnkinhtthgiinichung.Mc dchotithiimhinnaycthnhnnhrngchnghabohvcbn s khng quay tr li, nhng hng lot cc nc v ang p dng nhiu hngroboh,kchngrokthutlnhngrophikthut. Nhng hng ro thng mi hin ang c cc nc p dng c kh nnggythithilnvludinxutkhucaVitNam.Cchngrony cpdngrtadngvhnhthcnh:ccdngthubsung,hnngch, cc bin php phng v thng mi (bin php chng bn ph gi, chng tr cp,tv)...Nhngrocnthngminyangcnguycgiatngticcth

http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/vitinfo.com.vn/Cacnuoccanhtranhxaydungraocanthuongmai moi/2426495.epi ; http://dddn.com.vn/20090508104321713cat134/raocannguyhiem.htm ; http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/Cacraocanthuongmaicantrophuchoikinhte/20097/10753.vnplus7


trng xut khu ca Vit Nam8. Cc hng ro ny c th lm gim ng k hiuqucanhngnlctmkim,mrngthtrngvnngcaonnglc cnhtranhcahngxutkhucaVitNamtrongthigianquavkhintrin vngxutkhutrnnbpbnh.Vvy,viciphvvtquanhngro cnnytrthnhcngviccpbchvcbitquantrngivisnxut, xutkhucaVitNamhinticngnhtrongtnglai. Ngoira,nhngkhkhngpphitqutrnhcnhtranhquctcng lmttrongnhngthchthclnmVitNamphiimtkhithamgiavo thngmiquct.Cnhtranhdinrattccccp:hngha,doanh nghip, quc gia. Cc sn phm ca doanh nghip khng ch gp s cnh tranhthtrngncngoi,mngaycthtrngtrongnc,cbitl khiVitNammcathtrng,gimthunhpkhu,xabtrcpCnh tranh s cn khc lit hn i vi chng ta khi m nng lc cnh tranh cn yu. Trn cp doanh nghip, kh nng cnh tranh l tng hp cc yu t bn trong ln bn ngoi: l kh nng ca doanh nghip v qun l, sn xut,tipth,vtrnhcngngh,nnglccacngnhnphhpvinhu cuviukinbnngoi. Cc doanh nghip ang phi i mt vi nhng quy nh v thc thi quynshutrtu,tunthccquynhvnhnmcvxutxhngha, bo h quyn shutr tu.Mc dcc hng ro phithu quan cct gimivimtsmthngvmtsthtrng,nhhnngchxutkhu hng dt may vo th trng Hoa K v EU..., nhng cc doanh nghip Vit Namvnphiimtvicchngrokthutmingycngtinhvihntheo cc quy nh ring ca mt s nc. Cc chuyn gia kinh t nhn nh rng trongkhkhn,ccnnkinhtuangcxuhngtngcngccrocn thng mi. Ngn hng Th gii cng b, t Hi ngh thng nh G20 vo thng11/2008chonnay,ccncthucG20pdng47binphphn chthngmi. Khnghongkinhtkhinccrocnthngmicdnglnngy cng nhiu hn ch hng nhp khu. iu ny buc cc doanh nghip trong nc phi n lc v mi mt thch ng vi nhng quy nh mi khtkhehn. Diylmtsquynhmi,angvspchiulc,trongnm2008, 2009v2010mtsthtrngxutkhucaVitNam. http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/vitinfo.com.vn/Cacnuoccanhtranhxaydungraocanthuongmai moi/2426495.epi;http://dddn.com.vn/20090508104321713cat134/raocannguyhiem.htm;8


a. Th trng Hoa K Thng12/2009,mtlutmicaHoaKcbanhnhvthcthi,buc cclhngcdatrnnhpkhusphichuskimtrabiBanThanhtrav An ton thc phm (FSIS). Theo t chc ny, cc quy nh kim tra s nh nghacdatrnvphmvibaotrmcaccquynhscpdngvic schbincdatrn,trongstnhncciukinnuivvnchuync ncschbin.olutNngnghipHoaK2008(FarmBill2008)dkin chiulctngy112010snhhnglnnvicxutkhuctravcba sacaVitNam.Trcht,nuctra,cbasaVitNambnhnghalil catfishthslitngqunlcaolutny(theoFarmBill2002ctra,c basacaVitNamkhngphilcatfishtngichungcdatrn,mthuc dngpangasius). Th hai, trong lut c mt iu khon gi l chnh sch tng ng, c nghalccqucgiaxutkhucdatrnvothtrngHoaKphipngcc iu kin tng ng vi Hoa K v lut php, nng lc thc hin lut, kim sot nng lc sn xut... Do vy, trong trng hp B Nng nghip Hoa K (USDA)chorngcngnghipnuivchbinctra,cbasacaVitNamkhng tngngviiukincaHoaKthchcchnctracaVitNamsbcm xutvoHoaK,lchakbthanhtra,gimstlintccaUSDA. NgnhxutkhugcaVitNamvoHoaKcngsbnhhng nghimtrngbiolutLaceysaichiulctngy2252008.T1 42009lthiimbtbucnptkhaivittcccgiaodchthngmilin quannthcvtvccsnphmtthcvt.LutLaceybucnhnhpkhu khaibochititivitngloisnphm,chnghntnkhoahccathc vt(theogingvloi),gitrnhpkhu,khilngthcvt,tncaqucgia mthcvtcthuhoch(cthkhcvincxutxthnhphm).Quy nhnysnhhnglnnccnhxutkhugVitNam. TheoybanAntonsnphmtiudngHoaK(CPSC),lutmivan tonsnphmnhpkhuvoHoaKcthngquaktngy1482008. Theo,ttcccsnphmdtmayxutkhuvothtrngHoaKstun th theo nhngquynhmichnhthcchiulct thng2/2009.yban ny s tng cng gim st nghim ngt hn na cc quy nh an ton sn phmnh:tnhdchycavi,cmtuyticcsnphmcdythtvng ctrno,cbitlotrem.Mcphtiviccnhnhpkhuhngdt maycaHoaKkhiviphmcngstnglnn15triuUSD.Trcymc phtnytialvitriuUSD.28 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Hngmaymcvgiydpdnhchotremcngcnhngquynhmi, vlngchtrongsnphmvtrongsnbngoicasnphmhinnayl 600ppm,nhngbtutngy14/9/2009lngchtrongsnbngoicasn phmchcn90ppmvlngchtrongsnphmchcn300ppm9. b. Th trng EU T ngy 112010, Quy nh s 1005/2008 ngy 2992008 ca Lin hip Chuu(EC)vthitlpmththngkimsotnhmphngnga,ngnchn v xa b cc hot ng khai thc, nh bt thy sn bt hp php (illegal, unreportedandunregulatedfishingIUU)chiulc.Quynhnyyucu ttccclhnghisnkhaithcphicchngnhntntukhaithc,vng bin khai thc..., nu thiu s khng c php nhp vo EU. y l yu cu kh p ng c trong thi gian cn li ca nm 2009, khi EU l th trng nhpkhuthysnlnnhtcaVitNam.Ccchuyngiathngminhn nh,chnhschnycthtrthnhmthngrophithuquanivithy snVitNam10. Cng ti th trng EU, ni ti hng may mc xanh l ni ti cc sn phmpngccctiuchunsinhthiquynh,antonvsckhoi vingisdngvkhnggynhimmitrngtrongsnxut.Nunh tnhtrngtrnxyraivihngdtmaycaTrungQuc,thttyus xyraivingnhdtmaycaVitNamvccncChukhc.Nhvy, trongcuccnhtranhquytlitsaukhihnngchdtmaycdbvtiu chunEcofriendlycEUpdng,throcnthngmixanhlmt thchthc,trngilnivittcccncxutkhuhngdtmayvoth trngny,trongcVitNam. c. Th trng Canada CquanidinthngmiVitNamtiCanadacngkhuyncocc doanhnghipxutkhusangthtrngnycnlutunthnhngquinh trongLutDnnhnvqungcohngdtmayvLutThuhiquan.Ngoi ra,chtliusidngtrongqunotremcntunthquynhvchy. C quan i din thng mi Vit Nam ti Canada cng cho bit, nh xut khuvnhnhpkhuthnggiaodchdatrncsmuhng,dovycc mu hng cn phi tun th ng quy nh v tiu chun ca Canada v an ton,bn,trnglng,chtliu,chtlng.9

http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/Cacraocanthuongmaicantrophuchoikinhte/20097/10753.vnplus http://www.tuoitrevhn.com/?act=news&cat=64&sub=64&id=34904

10


d. Th trng Nht Bn Khngpdngnhiurocnthngminhccthtrngkhc,nhng Nht Bn cng c nhiu quy nh v hng ha nhp khu, bao gm: nhng hng ha b cm nhp khu, nhng hng ha cn giy php nhp khu v nhnghnghachnngchnhpkhu.Trongnhngquynhny,quynh vnhpkhucvsnphmlmtclmttrongnhngquynhnghim ngtnht.MtsloicbcmnhpkhucnmtsloictntrongCng cvthngmiqucttrongvicbunbnccloingthcvtcnguy ctuytchng(CITES)phinhpkhutheohnngch.Nhngquynhny nh hng rt nhiu n xut khu ca Vit Nam v thy hi sn l mt mt hngxutkhuminhncaVitNamvNhtBnlmttrongbanhnhp khuthyhisnlnnhtcaVitNam. e. Th trng Braxin Gny,ccdoanhnghipcaBraxinlntingcnhbovsthamgia qunhanhvothtrngBraxinvkhuvcNamMcaccqucgiaChu, lmchothphncaBraxingimstngk.Nm2008,ChnhphBraxin thc hin iu tra chng bn ph gi i vi nhiu nhm, mt hng Trung Quc.Hinti,Braxinpthuchngbnphgiivinhiumthngca TrungQucvscntiptcduytrthm6thngna,trongcgiydp (mthnggnnhxutkhuchlcsangthtrngBraxincaVitNam).Do vy,khngloitrvicBraxinsiutrachngbnphgiivihngho VitNamnichung(nhtlvisnphmgiydp). 1.4 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam v cc Hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc 1.4.1 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam 2008-2009 C th ni chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam trong 2 nm 20082009chunhhngcanhngnhhngchinlctrongnpht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 20062010 (B Thng mi 2006). Mc tiu tngqutcannylphttrinxutkhuvitctngtrngcaovbn vng,lmnglcthcytngtrngGDP.ymnhsnxutvxutkhucc mthngclithcnhtranh,ngthitchccphttrinccmthngkhcctim nng thnh nhng mt hng xut khu ch lc mi, theo hng nng cao hiu qu xutkhu.Chuyndchccuxutkhutheohngymnhxutkhunhngmt hngcgitrgiatngcao;tngsnphmchbin,chto,snphmchmlng cngnghvchtxmcao,gimdnttrnghngxutkhuth.Cngtheon


ny,tctngtrngkimngchxutkhuhnghabnhqunhngnms tmc16,5%mtnmvnnm2010kimngchxutkhustkhong 70tUSD,tctngtrngkimngchxutkhudchvbnhqunst 16,3%mtnm. Trong nm 2009, do nh hng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh v suy thoikinhttoncu,tnhhnhsnxuttrongncgpnhiukhkhn,mc tiu tng trng ca tng kim ngch xut khu c iu chnh t 18% xungcn13%.Vimctiutng13%,tngkimngchxutkhunm2009cn t71tUSD.Trongnm2009,nhmhngclithsosnhtngicaoca Vit Nam hin nay l nnglmthu sn cn t t nht l 16,5 t USD kim ngchxutkhu,tnghn2tUSDsovinm2008.Nhmhngcngnghip ch bin, b phn ang ng gp hn 56% tng kim ngch xut khu ca c nc,kim ngchcanhmnynm2009cnt tnhtl 37,5tUSD, tng thm4,5tUSDsovinm2008.Trongkhi,mthngkhongsnckim ngchlnnhtlunaylduththnm2009sphictgimkhilngxut khudnhphnngkchoNhmyLcduDungQut.Kimngchxut khuduthnm2009cthgimgn4tUSDsovinm2008.npht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 20062010 cng nh cc k hoch pht trin xut khu cc nm 2008, 2009 u xc nh, cc th trng ch lc vn l th trng Chu (Nht Bn, ASEAN, Trung Quc, Hn Quc, i Loan, Hng Kng),Chuu(chyulEU),BcM(HoaK,Canada)vchuidng (Australia). Ngoi ra, tip tc khai thc, thm nhp mt s th trng truyn thnghocthtrngminhNga,Trungng,MLatinhvChuPhi.BNG 4. C cu th trng xut khu (%)Th trng Chu ASEAN Trung Quc Nht Bn Chu u EU-25 Chu M Hoa K Chu Phi Chu i Dng C cu nm 2008 44,5 16,2 7,2 13,6 18,3 16 20,6 18,9 1,9 6,7 Tng kim ngch bnh qun 2006 - 2010 14,1 12,0 14,5 9,2 18,9 15,0 19,4 19,0 23,3 15,7 C cu nm 2010 (D kin) 45,5 11,5 10,7 12,4 22,0 20,5 24,0 23,1 2,8 7,7

Ngun: n pht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 2006-2010 v s liu thng k ca B Cng Thng 2009


Cc ch th tham gia xut khu Cngvinhhngchungltiptcthuhtsthamgiamnhmu tcakhuvcdoanhnghipcvnutncngoinngcaonnglc snxutvchuyngiaocngnghchoccngnhsnxuthnghoxutkhu trongnc,khuvcdoanhnghipcvnutncngoistiptcnng dnttrngnggptrongkimngchxutkhucaVitNamtronggiaion 20062010.Dkin,nnm2010khuvcdoanhnghipcvnutnc ngoisnggpkhong67%,khuvcdoanhnghip100%vnuttrong ncnggp33%trongtngkimngchxutkhucacnc.BNG 5. T trng xut khu tnh theo khu vc kinh tGiai on 2006-2010 KN (triu USD) 264.497 T trng (%) 100

Nm 2008 Ni dung KN (triu USD) Tng XK hng ho Doanh nghip 100% vn trong nc Doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi 52.254 T trng (%) 100

Nm 2009 KN (triu USD) 60.148 T trng (%) 100

Nm 2010 KN (triu USD) 69.298

T trng (%) 100

18.288

35,0

20.330

33,8

22.868

33,0

95.483

36,1

33.966

65,0%

39.818

66,2

46.430

67,0

196.014

63,9

Ngun: n pht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 2006-2010.

Theo cch phn loi ca Tng cc Thng k, ch th xut khu ca Vit Namcchiathnhhainhm,baogmkhuvckinhttrongncvkhu vccvnutncngoi.Quanstchothy,sauhn20nmtinhnhi mi,khuvccvnutncngoingycngnggpvaitrquantrng vo hot ng xut khu ca t nc. Chnh ph cng dnh nhiu u i nhmkhuynkhchccdoanhnghipcvnutncngoithamgiaxut khu. T nm 1998, cc doanh nghip FDI c xut khu nhng hng ho khngctronggiyphput.Nhngthayitrongnglichnhsch gp phn lm tng hiu qu xut khu ca khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi.Thctnhngnmquachothytlccdoanhnghipcvnut


ncngoithamgiaxutkhungycngnhiu 11.Nm2004,tlxutkhu trungbnhtrongccdoanhnghipFDIngnhgiydp,maymcvintln ltl98,9%,82,2%v68,5%.cbittnm2004nnay,khuvcnyu nggptrn50%kimngchxutkhu,trthnhmtnglcchnhchotng trngxutkhuniringvtngtrngkinhtnichung.Cth,nm2008, khuvccvnutncngoinggp34,5tUSDtrongkimngch xutkhu,chim55,1%(nm2007:57,2%;nm2006:57,9%).Nm2009,khuvc nytiptcnggp29,9USDchokimngchxutkhu,chim52,7%.Nghin cutsliucaTngccThngkchothy,ktnm2004tinay,khuvc kinhtcvnutncngoilintcxutsiu,trongkhikhuvckinht trongnclintcnhpsiu.Cth,nm2008,khuvckinhtcvnut ncngoixutsiu6,63tUSD,khuvckinhttrongncnhpsiu24,66t USD. Nm2009, nhp siucakhuvckinhttrongnc xpx 10,73t USD,trongkhikhuvckinhtcvnutncngoitiptcxutsiu5,03 tUSD. 1.4.2 Cc hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc Trongnhngnmqua,VitNamthchinchnhschmcavhi nhp su hn vi nn kinh t th gii, th hin thng qua vic Vit Nam gia nhpnhiutchcthngmisongphngvaphng,vangm phnnhiuhipnhthngmi,kchipnhthngmitdo. Nm2007lnmVitNamchnhthctrthnhthnhvincaTchc ThngmiThgii(WTO),mtmcquantrngnhdutintrnhmca v hi nhp. Sau khi gia nhp WTO, c bit l trong nm 2008 v 2009, Vit Namtchccymnhhnnaqutrnhhinhpvtdohathngmi, thhinquavicmphn,kkt,phchunmtlotcchipnhtrongv ngoikhiASEAN. Trongnm2008,vitcchlmtthnhvincaHiphiccqucgia ng Nam (ASEAN), Vit Nam cng cc nc thnh vin khc hon thnh m phn k kt cc tho thun hp tc trong ni b khi ASEAN. CcHipnhtrongnibkhiny(Hp1)cccncASEANbtu kkttthng12/2008vsthcschiulckhittcccncASEAN kktvhonttthtcphduyttrongnc.

11

NghincucaGiosTrnVnTh,ihcWasedaTokyo2004


Hp 1. Cc Hip nh ni b khi ASEAN m Vit Nam tham gia trong nm 2008- Hip nh thng mi hng ha ASEAN (ATIGA) thay th Hip nh CEPT/AFTA (1992) v d kin c hiu lc vo cui nm 2009; - Hip nh u t ton din ASEAN (ACIA) thay th cho Hip nh khu vc u t ASEAN (AIA) v Hip nh v xc tin v bo h u t ASEAN. - Gi cam kt th 7 trong khun kh Hip nh khung ca ASEAN v dch v (AFAS).

- Mt s tho thun hp tc, cng nhn ln nhau trong lnh vc y t, xy dng. Cngtrongnm2008,cccucmphnhipnhthngmitdogia ASEANviccitcngoikhictrinkhai.CthlASEANhon thnhmphnkkt3hipnhlnvi4itcquantrnglNhtBn, n,AustraliavNiuDiln.ylnhngHipnhFTAtondin,trngi vinidungrngvphctp,iuchnhnhiulnhvcnhthngmihng ha,dchv,ut,muasmchnhph,hiquan,shutrtucbit, sangnm2009,Australia,NiuDilnvncngnhnVitNamlnn kinhtthtrng.ycnglmtthnhcnglntronghotngkinhti ngoinm2008.Ngoira,ASEANcngktthcmphnHipnhu tASEANTrungQucvHipnhutASEANHnQuc.Hp 2. Cc hip nh Thng mi t do ASEAN k vi cc i tc trong nm 2008- Hip nh i tc kinh t ton din ASEAN - Nht Bn (AJCEP) (k kt ngy 1/4/2008 v c hiu lc t 1/12/2008) - Hip nh thnh lp Khu vc thng mi t do ASEAN vi Australia v Niu Diln (AANZFTA);

- Hip nh Thng mi hng ha ASEAN- n (AIFTA); Nm2008,VitNamcnghonttmphnHipnhitckinht VitNamNhtBnsaugn2nmmphn,honttchuicungnggitr giaVitNam,NhtBnvccncASEANkhc.Theo,NhtBnmca th trng nng sn cho Vit Nam mc cao so vi cc nc ASEAN khc. Trong hon cnh xut khu ang gp kh khn, vic c c Hip nh FTA viNhtBnlmtnlcln,khngnhngmrachimichohngxut khucaVit Nam, m cn bo mcho hngxutkhuVit Namkhng b kmcnhtranhsoviccnccFTAsongphngviNhtBnnhThi Lan,Indonesia,MalaysiavPhillipines.


1.5 nh gi xu hng hng ha xut khu Nhcpphntrn,nguynnhntrctiplmsuygimxutkhu trongnm2009ldonhucuthgiigim.Mtnguynnhnnalginhiu mthngxutkhucaVitNamcnggimmnhtrongnm2009.Nnkinh tVitNamthamgiavothtrngthgiivitcchmtncctrnh cngnghchaphttrin,bivy,hngxutkhucachngtachyulgo, ch,cph,giyda,duthCuvnhngmthngnythngtcogin, nndoanhthubnhngthngbinngcngchiutheogi.Gihngha VitNamtrongnm2009gimcthgiithchbimtsnguynnhnsau: - Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu khin nhiu nc lm vo suy thoi kinh t, nhiu ngi lm vo cnh tht nghip, thu nhp ca cc h gia nhbgimst.Bivy,khnngchitrvssnlngchitrcangi dnccncnhpkhuhngVitNamcngbgimtheo,khinchogi hngVitNamthphndkin. - NhngmthngnngsncaVitNamthngcchtlngkmng uvthphnsoviccnckhctrnthgii,dovicsdngnhiu thuctrsu,phnbnhahc,kotheogihnghabgimxungthp hnsovigitrnthtrngthgii.Vd,chVitNamchbnc vi gi 1.100 USD/ tn, trong khi gi ch nguyn liu th bnh qun trn thgiil2.200USD/tn). - HinnayVitNamvncnncthangcngnghthpsovikhuvcv thgii,dovyccmthngchlcvnchlnhngmthngnngsn vnhngmthngth,chaquachbin.Nhngmthngnychus nh hng ca hin tng gi cnh ko nn trong iu kin suy thoi kinhthinnay,khimcgichungtrnthtrngthgiisuygim,gi hngxutkhucaVitNamchunhhngnngn. Bi vy, mc d xut khu nhiu mt hng tng nu xt v lng xut khu(gotng34,1%,cphtng14,4%,htiutng6,0%),tuynhindothc tgigimmnhnnkimngchxutkhuvnstgim(trgigoxutkhu bng92,2%cngknm2008,cph:80,3%;htiu:86,9%). Nh vy, vic khng t ch tiu tng trng mt phn do nhng l do khchquanemlinhngmtphndonhngnguynnhnchquantni tinnkinhtVitNam.Bivy,vntrachoVitNamlphinngcao trnh cng ngh, cht lng sn phm, cng nh a ra nhng bin php


nhmchuyndchccumthngxutkhucthphntnrirotrong trnghpgixutkhugimnhhinnay.Xutkhukhngbnhhng lnsovixutkhucaccnckhcldoduytrmcgithp.iunych cnghanhtthitronggiaionkhnghongngnhn.Khikhnghong ko di hoc phc hi th vic duy tr xut khu nh hin nay s ngy cng gimdnvedasphttrinbnvngcatonxhi. 1.6 nh gi xu hng th trng xut khu 1.6.1 nh gi tnh hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam vo mt s th trng chnh (s dng m hnh trng lc) Nhm mc ch nh gi kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam chu nh hngcanhngnhntno,nhmnghincusdngmhnhtrnglc12. Mhnhnynhgiccnhntcthnhhngnhthnotilungxut khugiahaincitc.Ccnhntcthnhhngtilungxutkhu baogm:quymthtrng(dnscahaincitc),quymkinht(GDP cahaincitc)vkhongcchalgiahainc(khinimtngng khongcchgiahaivtth,khongcchnycngxathlchpdncngyu v ngc li). Ngoi ra, m hnh nghin cu ny tnh n c nhng tc ng cahipnhthngmihocnhnguithngmivngbingii giaVitNamvccncitc.Mhnhsdngsliuvkimngchxut khucaVitNamvi8ncvkhuvckinhtnh:HoaK,EU,ASEAN, TrungQuc,n,HnQuc,NhtBnvAustraliatrongccnmt1995ti 2008(14nm). Cch thc chn s liu:ngunsliucsdngtrongboconycly tthngkcacctchcquctnh:Qytintthgii(IMF),Ngnhng thgii(WB)nhsau: Thunhpbnhqunungicsdnglthunhpdanhngha dothunhpthctcaccncccungcptiIMFsdngmc gigctheoccnmkhngngnht.S liuvthunhpbnhqun ungicthuthptheoccnmtnm1995tinm2008. Khongcchalcsdnglkhongcchalctnhn quymdns,tngthchinltnhkhongcchthaithnhph cdnslnnhtcahainc.12

MhnhtrnglccgiithiulnutinbiTinbergen(1962)vLinnemann(1966)


Nhvy,mhnhnyxuthin3nhmyutnhhngnlungxut khutVitNamtincitc: NhmyutnhhngticungbaogmGDPcancxutkhu. Chsnycdonlscgitrdng,thhinmiquanh cng chiu ca GDP nc xut khu v kim ngch xut khu ca VitNam. Nhm yu t nh hng ti cu bao gm GDP v dn s nc nhp khu. GDP ca nc nhp khu tng th hin kh nng sn xut ca qucgia tngv nh hng ca iu nyti kim ngch xutkhu caVitNamscthdinratheohaichiuhng.Mtl,GDPnc nhp khu tng gy kh khn cho vic xm nhp ca hng ha Vit NamdohnghaVitNamsphicnhtranhkhclithnvihng hasnxuttincnhpkhu.Hail,GDPcancnhpkhutng th hin kh nng chi tr ca ngi dn nc nhp khu tng v vi hnghathngthngthiunythhincuthtrngnhpkhu stngvltnhiungmngchoxutkhucaVitNam.Dn scancnhpkhuthhinquymcathtrng,dboscmi linhthunchiutikimngchxutkhucaVitNam. Nhmyuthpdnhaycntrbaogmchnhschthngmica Vit Nam, c th trong m hnh ny l vic Vit Nam c hip nh thng mi song phng vi nc i tc hay khng. Nhn t ny cdonlctcngcngchiutikimngchxutkhuca VitNam.Ngoira,nhntvkhongcchalgiahaiqucgia, nh hng ti cc ph vn chuyn gia hai quc gia (thng kh thayi)slmthnchchokimngchxutkhucaVitNamti ncitc,donchsclinquantikhongcchalsc gitrm. Kt qu phn tch Ch s R2 t mc 92,47% th hin tnh chnh xc ca m hnh trng lngtronggiithchvquanhthngmisongphnggiahainci tc(cthlktquphntchphnnhstti92,47%sovithct),ngayc chsR2ciuchnh,ctnhnnhhngxucavicanhiubin vomhnhcngtcmcrtcaol90,86%.Nhvy,mhnhchokt qu c tnh cht thng k v n phn nh c khong hn 90% thc t bin ng v kim ngch xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam trong 14 nm (19952008).Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 37

Hnna,ttcccchslinquanticcbingiithchuctnhchtthng kmctrn99%13. KtquphntchkhngnhvaitrquantrngcaGDPcaVitNam cngnhGDPcaccncitcivikimngchxutkhucaVitNam. GDP ca c Vit Nam v nc i tc u c nh hng cng chiu ti kim ngchxutkhucaVitNamvccchsnyctnhchtthngk.Hnna chsnyltngilnvnutnhGDPcaVitNamvncitctng 1% th kim ngch xut khu tng 1,2%. iu ny c th l gii v pha cung, GDPVitNamtnglnthtnggitrhnghavdchvctoratrong lnhthncxutkhutngln.Vphacu,quymkinhtcancnhp khu(GDPncitc)thhinkhnngchitrcathtrngcngnhloi hnghamthtrngmongmunsdng,doncngctcngln tikimngchxutkhuhnghacaVitNam. Nhmyuthpdnhaycntrcquantmtrongmhnhnybao gmkhongcchalgiaVitNamvincitc,vicVitNamchip nhthngmisongphngvcchungngbingiiviccncitc haykhngcktquphhpviktqudon.ChsvvicVitNam chipnhthngmivincitccngnhchsvvicVitNamc chung ng bin gii vi nc v khu vc i tc cng c nh hng cng chiu ti kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam. Hip nh thng mi song phnghayccuitrongnhpkhuhnghacaVitNamlmtnhnt cbitquantrngvncngthhinchiphcaqutrnhxutkhu.Bingi vvicVitNamcchungngbingiivincitccngcnhhng lntikimngchxutkhucaVitNam. Mhnhcngchoktqutrichiugiakhongcchalgiahainc vkimngchxutkhucaVitNam.ylmtchsphhpvidon vkhongcchalthhinchiphvnchuyncahngha. Mt iu c bit chng ta nhn thy y l nh hng tri chiu ca quy m dn s (dn s nc i tc i vi kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam). y l mt ch s c th ni l tri ngc vi d on v logic thng thngbidnstlthunviquymthtrng(tngcuthtrng,dn stngdntitngculnhnvdbovquanhcngchiutikimngch xutkhu).Ktqunycthclgiidigckhnngcungngsn phmxutkhucaVitNamcnhnchvchatndngcchims tngvtngcuncitcmangli.13

KtqucamhnhtrnglcvhpsgiithchvmhnhtrnglcctrnhbytrongPhlc1


1.6.2 So snh gia tim nng v thc t xut khu ca Vit Nam vi tng th trng Ch s Tp trung thng mi (Trade Intensity) c tnh ton bng t s giathphnxutkhu(exportshare)cancxutkhu(thesourceregion) tincnhpkhu(thedestination)vthphnxutkhucacthgiiti ncnhpkhu. Tij=(xij/Xit)/(xwj/Xwt)

Trongxij vxwj lxutkhucancivcatonthgiinncj; XitvXwtltngkimngchxutkhucancjvcatonthgii. Chsnycsdngxcnhliuncxutkhuicxutkhu nhiu vo nc nhp khu j hn mc xut khu trung bnh ca th gii vo nc nhp khu j hay khng. Cc gi tr ca Trade Intensity s nm trong khong(0;+).Gitrnylnhn1schothyxutkhucancitincj lnhnmcxutkhutrungbnhcatonthgiivoncj.BNG 6. Ch s Tp trung thng mi (Trade Inte nsity) gia Vit Nam v cc i tc thng mi chnh trong khu vc Chu -Thi Bnh Dng (n v tnh: ln)Nc Trung Quc n Nht Bn Hn Quc Hoa K 2001 2,52 0,39 3,11 1,39 0,35 2002 2,08 0,47 3,18 1,42 0,84 2003 1,8 0,21 3,31 1,22 1,21 2004 1,97 0,38 3,34 1,13 1,25 2005 1,7 0,28 3,17 0,96 1,1 2006 1,7 0,29 2,89 0,95 1,3 2007 1,34 0,24 2,89 1,31 1,62

Ngun: United Nation-Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) http://www.unescap.org/tid/aptiad/index_trdi1_fm.aspx)

Theo tnh ton ca Lin hip quc, xut khu ca Vit Nam vo Trung Quccaohnxutkhucatonthgiivoncny.Tuynhin,chsny gimtkhong2lnxungti1,34lnnm2007,chothymctptrung thngmicaVitNamvoTrungQuccxuhnggim,chcaohnmt chtsovimcchungcacthgiivoncny. XutkhucaVitNamvonthphnmcxutkhutrungbnhca tonthgiivoncny.Cth,chsTptrungthngmi(TradeIntensity) caVitNamntrongnhngnmgnychtkhong0,3

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Bc Xuc Tien Xuat Khau-25052010