Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica

EURO LM - Case studiesEURO LM - Case studies

Langen, 8th March 2006

LT.Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Maj. Alessandro Fuccello

CONTENT

1th Case-study: Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005)

2nd Case-study: Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (21 October 2005)

3rd Case-study: Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis ( 23 February 2006) over Jonian Sea

Confluence lines

Cold Front

FI by jet

1st Case-study Confluence Lines situation

(3 October 2005)

Confluence lines

Confluence lines

FI by jet

Comma

Interpretation of precipitations(EURO-LM Model)

Based on Conceptual Models

Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

Low rainfall overestimationEURO-LM locates well FI by jet

High precipitation overestimationdue to orographic effect. Model dynamic is good

Strong convection line produces heavy rain well forecsted in intensity but not so in the spaceDynamics very good (Cold Front and pre-frontal Confluence Lines )

HRV VIS at 07 utc

HRV VIS at 12 utc HRV VIS at 15 utc

2nd case - study

Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)

(21 October 2005)

21 OCTOBER 00 UTC Num. FC: Wind and pressure distribution

T+12 T+15 T+18

Interpretation of precipitationsBased on Conceptual Models

MCSs

Rainfall overstimation Dynamics good (MCS) but evolution and path were wrong

Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

Tropopause anomaly

Cyclogenesis

over

Jonian Sea

33rd rd case - study (23 February 2006) case - study (23 February 2006)

Heavy rain

Forecasted

Over

Mid-adriatic Area,

Calabria and Eastern Sicily

22 February 2006 – EURO LM

23 February 2006 – EURO LM

Rainfall

Observed

Over

Mid-adriatic Area

(good estimation)

Calabria and Eastern Sicily

(over-estimation)

CONCLUSIONS

•Test case – studies discussed indicate good performances in EURO LM and LAMI precipitation forecasts related to dynamic synoptic patterns.

• Problems arise in case of rainfall due to Mesoscale convective activity, mainly in the location of precipitation area.

•Conceptual models seem to be promising for the interpretation and for the discussion of the results obtained by LM.

Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica

QUESTIONS ?

PLEASE, CONTACT

LT.Col Teodoro LA ROCCA larocca@meteoam.it Maj. Alessandro FUCCELO fuccello@meteoam.it

T.Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Magg. Alessandro Fuccello