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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Part IX: Macroeconomics in a Global Economy
28. Macroeconomics and International Trade
29. Open Economy Macroeconomics
1 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeconomics
2017.9.6.
2 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
1 Exchange Rates
2 The Foreign Exchange Market
3 The Real Exchange Rate and Exports
4 GDP in the Open Economy
5 匯率政策與外匯存底
3 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Q: How did George Soros make $1 billion?
4 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which
one country’s currency can be exchanged for
the currency of another country.
• In a flexible exchange rate system, the nominal
exchange rate is determined by supply and
demand in the foreign exchange market.
• Fixed or managed exchange rates are controlled
by the government.
5 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The real exchange rate is the ratio of the prices
(for example, all converted to dollars) of a
basket of goods and services in two countries
and thus influences net exports from one
country to the other.
• A decline in net exports reduces labor demand
and GDP and might cause unemployment.
6 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
29.1 Exchange Rates
• Many countries have their own currencies for
use in economic transactions.
7 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Nominal Exchange Rates• The nominal exchange rate is the price of one (domestic)
country’s currency in units of another (foreign)
country’s currency:
e =Units of foreign currency
1 Unit of domestic currency
2016/4/21: 6.4790 YuanU.S.dollar , 32.2960 NT dollar
U.S. dollar
• When a nominal exchange rate rises, we say that the
domestic currency is appreciating.
• When a nominal exchange rate falls, we say that the
domestic currency is depreciating.
8 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The nominal exchange rate can be rewritten as the price
of another (foreign) country’s currency in units of one
(domestic) country’s currency.
1
e=
Units of domestic currency
1 Unit of foreign currency
2016/4/21: 0.0154U.S.dollarYuan , 0.030U.S. dollar
NT dollar
Exhibit 29.1 The Nominal Exchange Rates e and 1/e on January 2, 2014
• There is a nominal exchange rate for each currency pair.
9 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• Should Walmart’s purchase toys from a Chinese or a U.S.
manufacturer?
• Walmart needs to decide whether a toy sold by a Chinese
manufacturer at a unit price of 20 yuan is less expensive
by a competing U.S. manufacturer at a unit price of $5.
• On January 2, 2014, the yuan-dollar exchange rate was
6.05, so the dollar price of the Chinese-manufactured toy
was
Dollar cost = Yuan cost×Dollars
Yuan
= Yuan cost×1
e
= 20×1
6.05= $3.31 < $5.00
10 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Flexible, Managed, and Fixed Exchange Rates
A country can adopt one of the following:
• Flexible (floating) exchange rate: The
government does not intervene in the foreign
exchange market.
• Fixed exchange rate: The government fixes a
value and intervenes to maintain that value.
• Managed exchange rate: A system between the
flexible and fixed exchange rates.
11 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.2 Yuan-Dollar and Euro-Dollar Exchange Ratesfrom 1999 to January 2014
12 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
29.2 The Foreign
Exchange Market
• The foreign exchange market is the global financial
market in which currencies are traded and nominal
exchange rates are determined.
• The foreign exchange market can be analyzed using the
supply and demand model.
• The price is the exchange rate e (e.g. yuan per dollar).
• The quantity is the amount of dollars traded in the
foreign exchange market.
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The demand curve represents traders who are
trying to buy dollars in the foreign exchange
market with Chinese yuan.• Question: Who is part of the demand curve?
• Air China buying a U.S. Boeing Dreamliner• Apple buying parts from Chinese Foxconn• Chinese government buying U.S. treasury bonds• U.S. investor buying Chinese Alibaba stock
14 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Question: Who is part of the demand curve?
O Air China buying a U.S. Boeing Dreamliner
X Apple buying parts from Chinese Foxconn
O Chinese government buying U.S. treasury
bonds
X U.S. investor buying Chinese Alibaba stock
15 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.3 Panel (a) The Foreign Exchange Market Undera Flexible Exchange Rate Regime
• e ↑, U.S. appreciates, demand for U.S goods ↓⇒
quantity demanded for dollars ↓16 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The supply curve represents traders who are
trying to obtain Chinese yuan by selling dollars
in the foreign exchange market.• Question: Who is part of the supply curve?
• Air China buying a U.S. Boeing Dreamliner• Apple buying parts from Chinese Foxconn• Chinese government buying U.S. treasury bonds• U.S. investor buying Chinese Alibaba stock
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Question: Who is part of the supply curve?
X Air China buying a U.S. Boeing Dreamliner
O Apple buying parts from Chinese Foxconn
X Chinese government buying U.S. treasury
bonds
O U.S. investor buying Chinese Alibaba stock
18 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.3 Panel (b) The Foreign Exchange Market Undera Flexible Exchange Rate Regime
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.3 Panel (c) The Foreign Exchange Market Undera Flexible Exchange Rate Regime
• Under a flexible exchange rate regime, the equilibrium
exchange market is the exchange rate that equates the
quantity supplied and the quantity demanded.20 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• Question: What happens to the yuan-dollar exchange
rate if Air China unexpectedly faces a higher demand for
air travel in China? Air China would need more aircraft.
Exhibit 29.4 The Foreign Exchange Market After a Rightward Shiftin the Dollar Demand Curve
21 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
How Do Governments Intervene in the
Foreign Exchange Market• Under a managed or fixed exchange rate regime, the
government announces a target, or “pegged” exchange.
• Chinese authorities have historically chosen an exchange
rate that makes the yuan substantially undervalued
relative to the dollar.
• This means that the dollar is overvalued relative to the
dollar.
• The government must be prepared to sell or buy its
currency whenever the pegged exchange rate ePegged is
above or below the equilibrium exchange rate e∗.
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.5 The Foreign Exchange Market Under a Pegged Exchange Rate ThatOvervalues the Dollar Relative to the Yuan
• Chinese authorities would need to soak up the excess
supply of dollars by buying dollars and selling yuan.• Between 1990 and 2013, the Chinese central bank
increased its holding of foreign reserves from about $30
billion to more than $3,800 billion.23 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Defending an Overvalued Exchange Rate• Defending an undervalued yuan appears feasible because
the Chinese central bank has the right to print as many
units of yuan as it wants.
• However, it is not easy to defend an exchange rate when
your currency is overvalued such as Mexican peso.
• Why would the Mexican government want the peso to be
overvalued and the dollar to be undervalued?
• Reduce the amount of pay-back in pesos for debt
borrowed in dollars.• Pay less for imports and keep prices and inflation
low.• A fall in the value of a currency is often perceived as
a failure of government policies.
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.6 The Foreign Exchange Market Under a Pegged Exchange Rate ThatUndervalues the Dollar Relative to the Peso
• The Mexican authorities need to use their pre-existing
dollar reserves to keep selling dollars to sustained an
overvalued pesos.
• What happens whey they run out of the dollar reserves?
25 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Fixed Exchange Rates and Corruption• At the pegged exchange rate with undervalued dollars
and overvalued local currency, the supply of dollars falls
short of the demand for dollars, some of the demand for
dollars will not be met by the government.
• The government will pick and choose who gets to sell the
local currency at the price undervalues dollars.
• In Venezuela in 2009, the official exchange rate was 2.15
bolivares to the dollar, but the black market rate was
roughly 5 bolivares to the dollar.
• Many government maintain overvalued exchange rates
as a way of rewarding friends, cronies, and themselves.
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Q: How did George Soros make $1 billion?
27 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• Data: Exchange rate and reserves data for the United
Kingdom from 1991 to 1992.
• From 1990 to 1992, the British pound had an exchange
rate that was pegged against the German mark.
• In the summer of 1992, changing market forces put
pressure on the British pound to depreciate.
• During the summer of 1992, the British government
spent about $24 billion of foreign currency reserves to
defend the pegged rate.
• The British authorities were running low on foreign
currency reserves when a new wave of pound sales hit
the market on September 16, 1992.
• At the end of that day (Black Wednesday), the British
authorities gave up trying to prop up its currency and
accepted a sharp depreciation.28 / 62
Chapter 29
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Macroeco-
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Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
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The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
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存底
Exhibit 29.7 The Mark-Pound Exchange Rate (Marks per Pound) fromJanuary 1991 to December 1992
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Chapter 29
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Macroeco-
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Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• Question: How did George Soros make $1 billion?• Answer: George Soros bet against the British pound just
before the depreciation of the pound. How did he do it?• Throughout 1992, Soros borrowed $10 billion worth of
pounds to buy German marks.• Soros’s pound sales and mark purchases accelerated the
pace of the British government’s reserves losses.• On Black Wednesday, the British pound depreciated by
12%, so Soros’s marks were worth more in terms of
pounds.• Soros paid off his pound debt and had $1 billion left in
profits.• By selling foreign currency reserves that would
subsequently appreciate against the pound, the British
government ended up with trading losses of
approximately $6 billion worth of pounds.30 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
29.3 The Real Exchange
Rate and ExportsFrom the Nominal to the Real Exchange Rate• The actually crucial exchange rate for the
macroeconomy and for trade is real exchange rate.• U.S. importers like Walmart compare the cost of a good
from China and from the United States in the same
currency: Dollar price of U.S. toy
Dollar price of Chinese toy
=Dollar price of U.S. toy
(Yuan price of Chinese toy)× 1e
=Dollar price of U.S. toy× e
Yuan price of Chinese toy31 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The real exchange rate for the United States is
the ratio of the dollar price of a basket of goods
and services in the United States divided by the
dollar price of the same basket of goods and
services in a foreign country:
E =Dollar price of U.S. toy
Dollar price of Chinese toy
=Dollar price of U.S. toy× e
Yuan price of Chinese toy
32 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Co-Movement Between Nominal and Real Exchange Rates
• Does real exchange rate follow nominal exchange rate?
Exhibit 29.8 The Nominal and the Real Pound-Dollar Exchange Rates from 1950 to 2010
• The real exchange rate fell from 1950 to 1966, when the
nominal exchange rate was fixed.
• After 1967, the real and nominal exchange rates moved
together, although the real exchange rate keeps falling
further behind. 33 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
The Real Exchange Rate and Net Exports• Question: What happens to U.S. exports to China and
Chinese exports to the United States when the real
exchange rate goes up?
• Question: What happens to U.S. exports to China and
Chinese exports to the United States when the real
exchange rate goes down?
Exhibit 29.9 The Relationship Between the Real Exchange Rate and Trade Flows
34 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Exhibit 29.10 The Real Exchange Rate (E) and Net Exports
Net exports = Exports− Imports
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
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Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
29.4 GDP in the Open
Economy• Analyze the macroeconomic implications of changes in
the real exchange rate. Focus on an appreciation of the
real exchange rate.• National income accounting identity:
Y = C + I + G + X − M
• The appreciation of the real exchange rate reduces net
exports and causes a decline in GDP.• Suppose that the dollar appreciates and net exports
decline. The foreign demand for U.S. products— say,
machine tools— declines because U.S. goods become
more expensive.36 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
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Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• The decline in demand for machine tools implied that
machine-tool producers will shift their labor demand to
the left.• The leftward shift of labor demand will translate into
lower employment and a new pool of unemployment
workers.
Exhibit 29.12 Employment Falls When the Real Exchange Rate Appreciates37 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Why Have Chinese Authorities Kept the Yuan Undervalued?
• Answer: A weaker yuan leads to an overvalued
yuan-dollar real exchange rate E .
• An increase in E leads to a trade deficit in the United
States and therefore a trade surplus in China.
Exhibit 29.11 U.S. Trade Balance with China 1999 to 2013
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
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Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Net Exports• Question: Can U.S. monetary policy respond to the
appreciation of the real exchange rate?• Answer: The U.S. Fed can pursue an expansionary
monetary policy to decrease the real exchange rate. How?• An expansionary monetary policy lowers U.S. interest
rates.• Chinese investors reduce their holdings of U.S. assets,
which decreases the demand for U.S. dollars in the
foreign exchange market.• This will cause the nominal yuan-dollar exchange rate
(e) and real exchange rate E to fall and thus U.S. net
exports to increase.• Contractionary monetary policy will have the opposite
impact.
39 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
Revisiting Black Wednesday• Question: What is the implication for the depreciation
of the pound on Black Wednesday?
E =UK prices× eGerman prices
• The sharp depreciation of the pound led to a decline in
the pound’s real exchange rate, an expansion of British
net exports, and a corresponding increase in economic
activity.
• The British economy did no well after Black Wednesday,
growing on average at 3.6% per year during the next 3
years, that some commentators switched to calling the
day that Soros broke the pound “White Wednesday.”
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GDP in the
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The Costs of Fixed Exchange Ratese
Exhibit 29.13 Real GDP Set to 100 in 2007
• Many economists believe that the greater severity and
duration of the economic crises in Europe has in part
been due to the inability of European exchange rates to
adjust.
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Chapter 29
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Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
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匯率政策與外匯
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• By using the same currency, the euro, all the European
economies are pegging their exchange rates to each other.
• When the exchange rate can change, countries can
devalue their currencies and thus increase their net
exports, stimulating the economy.
• Compounding this problem, there is the mismatch
between the needs of different European economies.
• In 2013, German real GDP was 5.9% above its 2007
pre-crisis level.
• The aggregate real GDP of Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, and Spain, was 7.2% lower in 2013 than it was
in 2007.
42 / 62
Chapter 29
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The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
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存底
2011.4.20, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
43 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
2012.4.19, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
44 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
2014.3.20, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
45 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
2015.4.30, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
46 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
2016.4.21, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
47 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
2017.5.18, The Economist
外匯存底的累積
48 / 62
Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
中央銀行總裁彭淮南 1998.2.25—49 / 62
Chapter 29
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Exchange Rates
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Exchange
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Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
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存底
• 什麼是外匯存底?• 外匯存底世界排名第三 (吳聰敏 2003.7.)
• 國家財富分為兩大類:• 廠房,住宅與機器設備。
• 國外資產。
• 國外資產有些是民間持有,其餘是央行持有,外匯存
底指的是央行所持有的國外資產。
• 央行可以印新台幣到市場上買進外匯。 買的多,外匯
存底就多。 買得少,或者賣出外匯,外匯存底就少。• 外匯存底增加多,只表示央行收行收購很多外匯,把
民間企業賺進的外匯移轉到央行手中。 如果央行不
買外匯,這些外匯資產不會消失,只是歸民間所有。• 央行為什麼要大量買進外匯?
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Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
平均每人國富與平均每人GDP為 2000年之統計數字,單位為 2000年美元。
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
央行為什麼要大量買進外匯?
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
匯率制度:
• 相對於台灣央行,美國、日本和歐元區的中央銀
行目前已經很少直接干預外匯市場,這些國家的
匯率制度稱為浮動匯率制度 (floating exchange
rate system,又稱為flexible exchange rate
system)。
• 相對而言,台灣在1980年代中期以前採取固定
匯率制度(fixed exchage rate system),在央行的
管制或干預下,新台幣兌美元匯率維持固定值。
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
• 根據官方說法,台灣央行目前係執行「動態穩
定」之匯率政策:
新台幣匯率制度為 「管理式浮動匯率制」
(managed floating exchange rate system),原則
上係由外匯市場供需決定匯率水準。惟匯市若
有季節性或不正常干擾因素(如熱錢的大量進
出),本行將適時調節,以維持外匯市場的秩序。
(中央銀行年報, 2006)
• 央行進一步說明,動態穩定是指將匯率控制在均
衡水準附近,以避免出現過度波動。
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
外匯存底與定期存單占GDP比例
• 大約從2000年開始,央行持續買入大量外匯;為了控制準
備貨幣數量,央行發行定期存單(Certificates of Deposits,
簡稱CDs)以回收新台幣,此稱為沖銷(sterilization)。
• 此一政策與1985-87年間相同。
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Chapter 29
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Macroeco-
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Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
中央銀行損益表
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
中央銀行損益表
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
央行盈餘佔歲入比例
• 「央行盈餘」為占財政收入比例, 「國內外利率差異」為美
國10公債之殖利率(yield to maturity)減去台灣商業本票
利率, 91-180天期。
• 殖利率是指擁有債券至到期日為止,每年可獲得之收益
率。 2000年以後國內外利率為何有顯著差異?
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
貨幣政策與利率
• 2001年開始,台灣央行採取寬鬆貨幣政策之後,隔夜拆款
利率相對而言都低於美國的聯邦基金利率(Federal funds
rate)。
• 「隔夜拆款利率」 和 「聯邦基金利率」 均為金融同業相互調
借資金所需支付的借貸利率。
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Chapter 29
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Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
貶值政策之影響:
2000年以來,台灣的貨幣政策是阻升台幣加低利率
政策。
• 台幣貶值政策對出口商有利,對消費者與進口商
不利。
• 貶值政策讓出口商缺乏產業升值的動機。
• 貶值政策終將招致貿易對手國的報復政策。
• 貶值政策使本國出口占GDP之比例持續上升,
使得本國景氣易受國外景氣影響。
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Chapter 29
Open Economy
Macroeco-
nomics
Outline
Exchange Rates
The Foreign
Exchange
Market
The Real
Exchange Rate
and Exports
GDP in the
Open Economy
匯率政策與外匯
存底
貶值政策之影響:
• 長期低利率政策使大量資金流入房地產與股票
市場,可能造成泡沫。
• 低利率政策造成財富重分配,債務人得利,債權
人不利。
• 央行大量買匯,再加上低利率政策,創造大量「央
行盈餘」,其效果等於是對存款人課稅。
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