C HI U T 6 THNG CUI 2015

TR LI 2 VN CHNH

1. Thu nhp doanh nghip

2. Cc lung tin

1. Kinh t v m, nhn t tch cc

2. Kinh t v m, nhn t nguy c

3. Kt qu kinh doanh doanh nghip thi gian qua

4. Mc nh gi th trng VN so vi th gii

5. Khuyn ngh c phiu

V M

Nhn t tch cc

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

T

ng

tr

n

g s

o v

i

c

ng

k

Tng trng GDP

2012

2013

2014

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

T

ng

tr

n

g s

o v

i

c

ng

k

Tng trng GDP

2012

2013

2014

2015

TNG TRNG GDP

TNG TRNG GDP

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

GDP Nng, lm nghip v thu sn

Cng nghip v

xy dng

Dch v

Tng trng GDP theo khu vc kinh t

6T2013

6T2014

6T2015

TNG TRNG DOANH THU BN L

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Tng trng Doanh thu bn l thc ly k

2013

2014

2015

CPI

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

T1/11 T1/12 T1/13 T1/14 T1/15

CPI/cng k nm trc

TN DNG TNG TRNG TR LI

5.26%

6.37%

2.03%

4.58%5.09%

6.28%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Tng trng huy ng

Tng phng tin thanh ton

Tng trng tn dng

Tng trng huy ng, tng phng tin thanh ton v tn dng

T6/14

T6/15

D TR NGOI HI CAO, CC TNG TH TT

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

D tr ngoi hi (T USD)

PMI

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Jun/12 Dec/12 Jun/13 Dec/13 Jun/14 Dec/14 Jun/15

Ch s PMI ngnh sn xut Vit Nam(50 = khng thay i so vi thng trc)

T9-2013

V M

Nhn t nguy c

THM HT THNG MI

-20,000

-16,000

-12,000

-8,000

-4,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

Xut nhp khu (Tr USD)

Xut khu (Tr USD)

Nhp khu (Tr USD)

XK-NK

THM HT THNG MI

(5,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

XK-NK ly k, theo s liu hng thng GSO (Tr USD)

2015

2014

TH TRNG TIN T

20,400

20,600

20,800

21,000

21,200

21,400

21,600

21,800

22,000

T3/12 T3/13 T3/14 T3/15

Din bin t gi

BQ lin NH

TT t do

TIM N NGUY C TNG LI SUT

2.0%

6.0%

10.0%

14.0%T1/1

0

T1/1

1

T1/1

2

T1/1

3

T1/1

4

T1/1

5

Yield tri phiu chnh ph cc k hn

2 nm

5 nm

10 nm

NGUY C LM PHT CHI PH Y

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

Tng trng gi tng nhm hng ha

Lng thc

Thc phm

n ung ngoi g

Hng n & dv n ung

ung thuc l

May mc, giy dp, m nn

Nh & VLXD

Thit b & ng dng g

Thuc & dch v y t

Giao thng

Bu chnh vin thng

Gio dc

Vn ha, gii tr, du lch

dng & dch v khc

TNG KT PHN V M

V m

GDP

Doanh thubn l

CPI

Tn dng

D tr ngoihi

PMI

TPP

Thm ht TM

T gi

Li sut

Chi ph uvo

KQKD DOANH NGHIP

Xc nhn li din bin

v m

KQKD

14%17%

-7%

21%

7%

26%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Doanh thu Li gp Chi Ph Tichnh

Chi ph BnHng

Chi ph qun l

Li nhun sau thu

Bin ng kt qu kinh doanh 2014 vs 2013

KQKD

8%5%

29%

19%

9%

-1%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Doanh thu thun

Li nhun gp

Chi ph tichnh

Chi ph bnhng

Chi ph qun l

Li nhun sau thu

Bin ng kt qu kinh doanh qu 1/2015

Chng khon VN

T/R?

2012 2013 2014 2015

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

HOP LY

RE

RAT RE

DAT

RAT DAT

PEHSX (13.9300, 14.0400, 13.9300, 14.0400, +0.31000)

LCH S P/E HSX

P/E HSX so vi CC TH TRNG KHC

0

5

10

15

20

25 P/E

01/01/14

20/06/14

31/12/14

0

5

10

15

20

25 P/E

01/01/14

20/06/14

31/12/14

07/07/15

TM L

v

HNH NG

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulUindex, Dindex

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000Moving Average (13,822.15), Moving Average (7,406.08)(Dindex)

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

x10000 5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

x10000

Volume (167,953,856)(VNINDEX)

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

Rational

Fear

Loathing

Greed

#FormulaError#269, Moving Average (50.8829)(UDIndex)

GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015

Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t )

GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015

Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t ) Share out VNM ETF_phi (triu)

GIAO DCH NH U T NC NGOI

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015

Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t )

GIAO DCH NTNN vs VNINDEX

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

01/07/2014 04/09/2014 06/11/2014 12/01/2015 24/03/2015 01/06/2015

Ly k mua rng Khi ngoi 1 nm qua (t ) VNINDEX_phi

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

y/y=16%

Dinh cao nhat co the dat

cua VNIndex dot nay = 685

Khi do P/E HSX = 15.3

VNINDEX (618.750, 633.730, 618.650, 625.220, +8.78998)

KH NNG LEO DC VNINDEX

KHUYN NGH

U T

L THUYT CHU K

L THUYT CHU K

Mc tng/gim nhm c phiu trong tng thi k.

TNG TRNG NHM NGNH 6 THNG QUA

-55.0%

-35.0%

-15.0%

5.0%

25.0%

45.0%

65.0%

Dc

h v

lu t

r &

gi

i tr

SX D

c

phm

CN

TT -

Truy

n t

hng

SX N

ng L

m

Ng

SX N

ha -

Ho c

ht

SX T

hu

sn

SX H

ng g

ia d

ng

DV C

huy

n m

n -

KH

&

SX T

n t

hp

Ti

n ch

cng c

ng

Khai khong

SX C

ao s

u

SX T

hi

t b i

n -

i

n

Vn t

i

Xy

dng

SX V

t

liu x

y

dng

Bt

ng s

n

Bo h

im

Thng m

i

SX T

hc

phm

-

SX C

k

h

Chng k

hon

Ngn h

ng

So vi thng trc So vi u nm

CP QUAN TM THEO L THUYT CHU K

Sector Ticker Sector Ticker Sector Ticker

Financials

VIC

Consumer Discretionary

(tiu dngkhng thit

yu)

FPT

Industrial Sector

HT1

HAG MWG BCC

KBC PET TTF

ITA TCM HPG

SSI TNG HSG

HCM HHS VCG

VND TMT CTD

KLS SVC HBC

BVH DQC CII

BIC

Technology Sector

ELC HUT

BMI CMG

PVI GLT

VCB ITD

CTG

BID

STB

MBB

EIB

ACB

CP QUAN TM THEO ROOM NGOI

NGH NH 60

T l s hu nc ngoi ti cng ty ichng ph thuc vo (i) iu c quct m Vit Nam l thnh vin, (ii) Phplut v u t lin quan, hoc (iii) Nukhng thuc cc trng hp trn th tl s hu l KHNG HN CH trtrng hp iu l cng ty quy nhkhc.

Hin vn cha c thng t hng dn

TC NG CA NGH NH 60

K vng tng gi ngn hn chonhng c phiu c ni room.

CP QUAN TM THEO ROOM NGOI

M%Roomcn li

REE 0.00%

PVI 0.00%

GMD 0.00%

BMP 0.00%

KDH 0.00%

NLG 0.00%

ST8 0.00%

PCG 0.00%

SAV 0.00%

ACB 0.00%

VNM 0.00%

MBB 0.00%

M%Roomcn li

MWG 0.00%

FPT 0.00%

DHG 0.00%

CTD 0.00%

VNS 0.00%

HCM 0.00%

FCN 0.00%

TCM 0.00%

IMP 0.00%

EVE 0.00%

DMC 0.00%

VSC 0.00%

M%Roomcn li

BBC 0.02%

PNJ 0.03%

ASP 0.08%

SII 0.08%

JVC 0.09%

TCR 0.21%

CTG 0.39%

NVT 0.42%

RIC 0.51%

PNC 0.57%

TDH 0.90%

*Cc c phiu c %Room nc ngoi cn li di 1%.

CP THA L THUYT CHU K V ROOM

ACB

CTG

MBB

HCM

PVI

TCM

FPT

MWG

CTD

VHC

FMC

TCM

VSC

CP QUAN TM THEO DT TP TRUNG QU 2

Tiu ch sng lc:

- Ma v: T trng doanh thu v/hoc li nhun qu 2 ng gp cao

trong c nm (trung bnh giai on 2011-2014).

- Thanh khon khng qu thp.

- Hot ng kinh doanh: n nh hoc k vng tng trng.

STT M NgnhMav

KLGD TB 1 thng

+/- % DTT

+/- % LNST

T l TH/KH

1 DHP Thit b in 47% 22,534 127.4% -12.6% 25%

2 HJS Thy in 32% 12,485 36.4% 87.4% 18%

3 DHA VLXD & Ni tht 28% 58,428 18.1% 695.0% 32%

4 DRC Lp xe 27% 47,691 13.0% 2.1% 25%

5 HSG Thp & Sn phm thp 26% 196,248 30.3% 70.4% 19%

* Ma v: T trng doanh thu/li nhun qu 2 trn c nm (trung bnh t nm 2011-2014).

* +/-% DTT, +/-% LNST: Tng trng doanh thu thun v Li nhun rng Q1/2015 so vi cng k nm trc

* T l TH/KH: Li nhun rng Q1/2015 so vi k hoch c nm.

CP U T LU DI

Ngoi nhng c phiu m chng ti phn tch v tip tc duy tr

khuyn ngh tch cc nh DHC, CVT, GDT, LSS, chng ti gii thiu mt

c phiu mi, c phiu VHL ca Cng ty Viglacera H Long

VHL:

- Cng ty sn xut gch ngi nung ln nht trn sn

- Hng li nh ngnh xy dng ang tng trng tt

- C li th quy m ln v ngun nguyn liu di do

- a vo nh my gch clinker mi trong 2015

- C cu sn phm ang thay i theo hng nng sn phm c bin

li nhun cao.

(Bo co y v VHL s c VFS Research gi n qu nh u t trong

vi ngy ti).

THANK YOUHunh Ngc ThngTrng Phng Phn tch u tthuong.huynh@vfs.com.vn

Nguyn Vn TinChuyn vin Phn tch Cao cptien.nguyen@vfs.com.vn

Nguyn Ngc ThnhChuyn vin Phn tch k thutthanh.nguyen@vfs.com.vn

Phan Minh cChuyn vin Phn tch Cao cpduc.phan@vfs.com.vn

Nguyn Trnh Ngc ThyChuyn vin Phn tchthuy.nguyentn@vfs.com.vn