Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights ...ˆ˜略财务在战略到执行中的作用 Design Strategy to Execution Kok Sau Ting EPM Solutions Manager, EPM APAC

Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

战略财务在战略到执行中的作用Design Strategy to ExecutionKok Sau Ting

EPM Solutions Manager, EPM APAC@ 28th August 2012

The following is intended to outline our general

product direction. It is intended for information

purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any

contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any

material, code, or functionality, and should not be

relied upon in making purchasing decisions.

The development, release, and timing of any

features or functionality described for Oracle’s

products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

Safe Harbor Statement


Takeaways

• Strategise and plan for profitable growth

• Manage risk from strategy to execution

• Close loop performance tracking to strategy

with action links

• Modernize systems and processes to reduce

costs and improve information delivery


How Confident Are You in Developing,

Executing and Managing Strategies?


Board of DirectorsSenior Management

Headcount Plans

FP&A

Annual Plan & Forecast

Revenue & Cost Models

Departmental Plans

TreasuryCorporate

Development

Long-Term Planning

• Complex spreadsheet models

• Spreadsheets are error prone

• Limited accounting integrity with no

overall financial impact

• Not involving business users

• Lack of integrated models make

scenario analysis cumbersome

• Limited consolidated view

• Long simulation times

• Business users plan not according to

target set

• Only KPIs dashboard without cause

and effect analysis

6

Most of Companies Are Still Relying on Conventional

Static Strategic Planning Practices

Vision

Data Collection & Assumption

Internal

(Resource)

External

(Industry,

Competitor, etc)

Model 1 Model 2 . . . . .Model

N

Scenario Simulation

Strategy

Management Judgment

& Experience

1

2

Overall Process for Strategic Management

Source: Oracle insight analysis.

3


KPIs Monitoring4

realign

7



Vision


Internal

(Resource)

External

(Industry,

Competitor, etc)


N

Scenario Simulation

Strategy

Management Judgment

& Experience

1

2



3


So, today’s tumultuous environment is either neglected or not

dynamically reflected in strategy and planning process

KPIs Monitoring4

realign

Conventional Practice

Fixed period for strategic

planning, such as 1 year

Use static, historical data

as well as assumption

about the change as the

fundamental information

for forecast

Limited, fixed model for

simulation

Strategic plan is relatively

fixed in certain period

(such as 1 year)

KPIs monitoring through

static dashboard

1

2

3

4

8



Vision


Internal

(Resource)

External

(Industry,

Competitor, etc)


N

Scenario Simulation

Strategy

Management Judgment

& Experience

1

2



3


So, today’s tumultuous environment is either neglected or not

dynamically reflected in strategy and planning process

KPIs Monitoring4

realign

Conventional Practice

Fixed period for strategic

planning, such as 1 year

Use static, historical data

as well as assumption

about the change as the

fundamental information

for forecast

Limited, fixed model for

simulation

Strategic plan is relatively

fixed in certain period

(such as 1 year)

KPIs monitoring through

static dashboard

1

2

3

4

Reality

Difficult to obtain accurate

external data (especially

difficult for competitors’ data,

even for historical information)

Significant uncertainty for

both internal & external

assumption

Short time for simulation

before business decision

A lot of different possible

scenarios

The alignment between

strategy & execution is not

enough

The dashboard merely

present “problems” does not

help with finding solutions

1

2

3

4

DSTE Critical Processes

• Inventory

• Financials

• Pricing

• Sales

• Fulfillment

• Service

Target Execute AnalyzePlan

External

Parameters

Monitor


Performance• Responses

• Leads

• Sales

• Costs

Con

sis

ten

t

Info

rma

tion

Marketing

Dashboard

Needs

& Reqs

Customer

InformationAnalytics

Integrated

Intelligence

Enterprise Integration

10g Data

Mining

Analytics

Sales

Dashboard

Performance

Management


Management Judgment & Experience


Run models for key initiatives, finalize LRP and set near term targets

Seed targets to annual operating plan

Start annual process

Update strategic plan with latest outcome and forecast

Evaluate resource and capital requirements

Long-term strategic plan

Annual budget / plan

Evaluate workforce and capital

Monthly / rolling

forecast

Monitor & Analyze

Performance

Update Strategic

Plan


Assess and Manage Risk

Update forecast with latest budget and actuals

Set and communicate targets

Monitor Performance against KPIs

Analyze results and cause of actions










Monthly / rolling

forecast

Monitor & Analyze

Performance

Update Strategic

Plan







Critical Components to Implement Strategic Planning Best Practices

Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 12

Predictive Modeling & Simulation

CorporateDevelopment

Value Management

Long-Term Financial Planning

Treasury Strategies

Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting

What-if Analysis

Plan


Strategic Planning Best PracticesFinancial impact of key business strategies

Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 13

Predictive Modeling & Simulation

Treasury Strategies

Value Management

Long-Term Financial Planning

CorporateDevelopment

Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting

What-if Analysis

Long-Term Planning

•Product initiatives

•Capital investments

•Cashflow & earnings

•Key Performance

Metrics

Corporate

Development

•Mergers & acquisitions

•Divestitures

•Joint-ventures

Value

Management•Corporate & BU Level

•Discounted Cash Flow

•EVA

•Multiples

Treasury

Strategies

•Capital structure

•Credit rating

•Debt covenants

Plan


Long-term Planning, Corporate Development

and Treasury in a Single Model

• Integrated financial

statements

• Project shareholder value

• Run unlimited scenarios

• Consolidate multiple

business combinations

• Evaluate strategic projects

• Simulate effects of M&A

• Debt Scheduling

• Optimize capital structure


Plan

Built-in Corporate Finance LogicAccounting Integrity and Modeling Speed

• Analyze Trail Feature

• Visualize model logic

• Consolidation Intelligence

• Complex entity structures

• “What-If” Analysis Toolkit

• Unlimited scenarios

• Goal-Seek

• Pre-built Reports, Ratios, and

Functionalities:

• Financial Statements

(BS,IS,CF, and Ratios)

• “Deal Period” Functionality

• Funding Options & Capital

Structure

• Drill-Down Functionality


Plan

Treasury Toolkit

• Calculates net cash

surplus or deficit from

multiple models and

scenarios

• Funding Options tool to

re-allocate surpluses and

fund deficits

• Debt scheduler

• User-defined reports to

monitor covenants, credit

ratings, and earnings per

share


Plan

Investment Analysis Tools

• Pre-built valuation logic

(NPV, IRR, etc.)

• Purchase accounting for

acquisitions

• Movable Deal Period

• Include/Exclude option

• Fiscal year-end conversion

• Divestiture logic


Plan

Quantify Risk and Uncertainty

• Only 3 possible outcomes

• Limited view of risk

• What are most important risk factors?

• What are the odds I’ll miss the target?

• Which outcome is most likely?

ConventionalSingle Point Scenarios

• Full range of outcomes

• Illustrate probability of outcomes

• Immediate visibility into inherent risk

• True risk analysis for financial models

AdvancedThinking in Ranges


Plan

Apply Monte Carlo Simulation To Measure

the Effects of Uncertainty

• Assign probability distributions to uncertain assumptions

• Run thousands of simulations

• Analyze range of outcomes and probabilities

• Assess model sensitivities


Plan

Financial Forecasting

• Gauge success potential for R&D projects

• Deal structuring

• Valuation of new product opportunities

• Sales forecasting

• Forecasting Marketing ROI

Portfolio Optimization• Financial analysis for compounds and portfolios • R&D portfolio management

Capacity Planning• Determine staffing needs based on the product pipeline

forecast • Supply chain management: determine safety stock

levels at international distribution centers • Production forecasts

Simulation and Modeling use cases

Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved

Plan

CapExp Decisions• Which country and projects to invest in• Acquisition evaluations• Acquisition/upgrade of equipment or software• Upgrade an existing production line or build new

Engineering / Quality• Developing and optimization of designs• Analyzing tolerance and reliability• Selecting optimal projects• Simulating processes when historical data is lacking

Simulation and Modeling use cases

Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved

Plan


Oracle's Integrated Enterprise Planning

INTEGRATED

ENTERPRISE

PLANNING

OPERATIONAL PLANNING

STRATEGIC PLANNING

Long-Range

Plan

Major

Investments

& Strategy

Treasury

Strategies

M&A and

Divestitures

Annual PlanDepartmental

BudgetsForecasting

Workforce,

Capital and

Projects etc.

Target

Setting










Monthly / rolling

forecast

Monitor & Analyze

Performance

Update Strategic

Plan







Target to Plan and ForecastShortens Planning Cycles and Improves Business

Predictability

• Centralized system

• Powerful workflow and

process management

• Robust data integration and

Audit Trail

• Leverages Essbase – powerful

reporting and analysis

• Align top-down and bottom-up

• Driver-based forecasting

• Involve business users

• Plans against Target - better

alignment of plans to strategy

24Copyright © 2012, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Execute

Predictive Analytics for advanced

forecasting

• Time Series

Forecasting

• Library of

Forecasting

Methods

• Sensitivity

Analysis

• Monte Carlo

Simulation


ExecutePlanExecute










Monthly / rolling

forecast

Monitor & Analyze

Performance

Update Strategic

Plan








Performance Monitoring and Management Collaborate, Manage, Align

Collaborate :

• Communicate vision and strategy

through graphic visualization

Define Responsiblity :

• Accountability for actions and initiatives

Assign Actions :

• Link objectives to actions supported by

KPIs

Benefits

– Closed loop performance management

– Provides timely, function- and role-

based KPI’s and alerts

– Enables decision making within

effective time window

Monitor &

Analyze


OSSM Offers

KPI Management

• Performance Tracking

– Against Target / Trending

– Threshold Assessment

• Ownership Definition

• Collaboration

– Threaded Discussions

– Related Documents

– Action Links

– Agents

– Drill to Analysis

– Watch Lists

Monitor &

Analyze


OSSM Offers

Strategy Management

• Graphic Visualizations of Strategy:

– Strategy Maps

– Strategy Trees

– Cause and Effect Maps

– Custom Visualizations

• Scorecards

• Collaboration– Threaded Discussions

– Related Documents

– Action Links

– Agents

Monitor &

Analyze


OSSM Offers

An Interactive, Collaborative Environment

• Dashboard integration– Embed scorecard visualizations

into dashboards to foster broadinteractive analyses

• KPI Agents – To monitor performance

even when you can’t

• KPI & Scorecard Actions– Align day-to-day decisions with your

corporate strategy

• Annotations & Overrides– Collaborate and document exceptions

to prevent future recurrences

Monitor &

Analyze


Strategy Artifacts present visibility and insight

into strategy performance

Better decisions, actions, control at all levels

Respond faster to opportunities and threats

Identify and replicate best practices

Key Benefits of Oracle Scorecard and Strategy

Management

• Insight

• Alignment

• Leverage


Gain a single, consistent view of enterprise

information across functions & data sources

Align strategy and execution across functions

Use guided analytics and best practice analytic

workflows to drive the best actions


Management

• Insight

• Alignment

• Leverage



Management

Do more with less - deploy BI more broadly

with fewer IT resources than custom-build

Accelerate time-to-value, lower TCO and risk

Increase the utility of existing data and

applications, including CRM and ERP

• Insight

• Alignment

• Leverage










Monthly / rolling

forecast

Monitor & Analyze

Performance

Update Strategic

Plan

Oracle Supports Huawei's DSTE Processes






CUSTOMER SUCCESS


Selection of Strategy Management Customers


Customers Success Stories

• Plan for IPO and simulation for new stores opening

• Reduce strategic planning cycle by 50% to 3 months


• Treasury Modeling for a Debt Refinancing

• Ran over 1200 alternative financing assumptions to communicate

with banks and amend loan agreement

• Scenario time reduced from 3 days to 10 minutes

• Reduced optimal facility utilization analysis from

months to weeks

• Made proactive decisions based on changing market

prices and environmental regulations

• Analysis of new product lines and acquisition targets integrated into

3-year plan

• Complete enterprise planning process with periodic updates of

budget and actual data for new iterations of the strategic plan


Oracle Supports Huawei's DSTE Processes

Greater insight into business performance

• Results versus plan for strategy

Closed loop performance management

• Timely, function- and role-based KPI’s and alerts; enables

decision making within effective time window

Integrated financial and operational planning

• Improves demand driven operations and profitability

Best in class risk managed financial strategic plan, budgeting,

modeling solution improves accuracy of plans

Target Execute AnalyzePlan Monitor


Performance• Responses

• Leads

• Sales

• Costs

Takeaways

• Strategise and plan for profitable growth

• Manage risk from strategy to execution

• Close loop performance tracking to strategy

with action links

• Modernize systems and processes to reduce

costs and improve information delivery
