CURSUL 8

Convergena real i convergena nominal. Aderarea la zona euro

Aderarea la Uniunea Economic i Monetar (Zona euro) este condiionat de ndeplinirea a 5 criterii de convergen nominal.

Totui, aceste criterii tehnice nu garanteaz i succesul unei economii care decide s adopte moneda unic.

Fr progrese sustenabile n privina convergenei reale (anterioare acestei decizii), economia Romniei ar fi o ar periferic a zonei euro, iar beneficiile vor fi mai mici dect costurile adoptrii monedei unice.

Existena unei monede unice va amplifica procesul de integrare economic dintre economiile zonei euro i va avantaja economiile cele mai competitive ale uniunii monetare (Germania vs. PIGS).

Romnia a amnat recent inta de aderare la zona euro n 2015.

A. Convergena economic (real)

- fundamentele teoretice cursurile 6-7

Criterii de analiz ale convergenei economice/factori de influen

1. PIB pe locuitor (PPC)

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011)

Evoluia procesului de convergen a Romniei relativ la zona euro

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011)

Convergena veniturilor n rile ECE relativ la zona euro

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011), calcule personale

Ipoteza de convergen beta n cazul rilor ECE (1995-2010)

2. Productivitatea muncii

Productivitatea muncii (euro/lucrtor)

20042005200620072008200920102011

Bulgaria3.944.14.34.44.34.54.8

Romania4.44.64.95.25.65.35.3:

Latvia5.55.96.36.76.76.66.97.8

Lithuania7.57.78.28.78.88.38.79.2

Poland8.28.48.68.88.99.19.59.8

Estonia8.79.29.710.31010.310.910.8

Slovakia10.110.41111.812.111.812.312.6

Hungary10.210.711.111.111.31111.111.2

Czech Republic11.111.712.4131312.81313.1

Portugal15.415.615.816.116.116.116.416.5

Slovenia1718.219.320.120.118.919.520.2

Greece20.119.820.821.522.221.120.419.9

Spain27.727.928.128.528.729.43030.4

Germany39.439.941.3424240.941.742.3

Ireland43.944.144.745.845.848.149.951.8

3. Decalajele structurale

Indicele convergenei structurale, propus de Krugman, evideniaz distana structural dintre strucuturile sectoriale ale Romniei i zonei euro.

Indicele disimilaritii structurale RO/EA=

unde, sk reprezint ponderea sectorului k n valoarea adugat a Romniei i zonei euro. Indicele ia valoarea 0 (similaritate perfect) i 1 (divergen maxim). Indicele divergenei, propus de ctre Stattev i Raleva (2005) Divergence index=

Dac acest indice este zero, atunci exist aceeai structur a

economiei, relativ la economia de referin. Indicatorul asimetriei structurale, determinat ca deviaie standard a strucurii economice comparativ cu media zonei euro.

Structural Asymmetry Indicator =

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Divergena sectorial dintre Romnia i zona euro (NACE 6)


Divergena sectorial dintre Romnia i zona euro (NACE 31)Comparnd structurile sectoriale ale Romniei i zonei euro folosind clasificrile NACE 6 i NACE 31, rezult c ocurile care vor influena cele dou economii vor deveni mai degrab asimetrice, ceea ce va mri costurile renunrii la moneda naional.4. Gradul de integrare comercial cu zona euro

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)Integrarea comercial dintre Romnia i UE-27

Cei mai importani parteneri comerciali ai Romniei din zona euro (n primele zece economii partenere comercial)200420072010

Pondere n total exporturiPondere n total importuriPondere n total exporturiPondere n total importuriPondere n total exporturiPondere n total importuri

Italia

21.2%Italia

17.2%Italia

17.1%Germania

17.2%Germania

18,3%Germania

16,8%

Germania

15%Germania

14.9%Germania

16.9%Italia

12,7%Italia

13,9%Italia

11,6%

Frana

8.5%Frana

7.1%Frana

7.7%Frana

6.3%Frana

8,4%Frana

6%

Olanda

3.2%Austria

3.5%Austria

2.6%Austria

4,8%Spania

3,1%Austria

4,1%

Austria

3.1%Spania

2.3%Olanda

3,6%Olanda

2,8%Olanda

3,5%

TotalTotalTotal

51%42.7%46.6%44.6%46.5%42%


Ponderea exporturilor rilor ECE ctre zona euro

5. Divergenele dintre structurile comerciale


Divergena structurii comerului dintre Romnia i zona euro


Coninutul tehnologic al exporturilor Romniei ctre UE-27


Ponderea exporturilor mediu/high-tech n exporturile totale ctre UE-27


Coninutul tehnologic al importurilor Romniei din UE-276. Investiiile strine directe

Proporia rilor din nucleul zonei euro n stocul de capital al economiilor ECE (2009)BelgiumGermanyFranceItalyNetherlandsAustriaLuxemburg

Bulgaria1%6%2%1%18%18%4%

Czech Republic4%14%7%1%30%13%7%

Hungary3%22%5%-7%18%13%7%

Poland3%16%11%4%18%4%9%

Romania2%13%9%5%22%18%1%

Slovenia3%5%7%6%5%49%2%

Slovakia3%13%4%5%27%16%4%

B. Convergena nominal

Tratatul de la Maastricht - cinci criterii pe care statele membre trebuie s le respecte pentru a se putea altura UEM i a adopta moneda euro.

1. Rata medie a inflaiei - maxim +1,5 pp peste media celor mai performani 3 membri ai UE2. Rata dobnzii nominale pe termen lung - maxim +2 pp peste media celor mai performani 3 membri ai UE din perspectiva stabilitii preurilor3. Deficitul bugetar - maxim 3% din PIB;

4. Ponderea datoriei publice n PIB - maxim 60%;

5. Marjele de fluctuaie ale cursului de schimb - +/-15% n ERM II, (cel puin 2 ani), fa de o rat de paritate central.

CUM S-AU CALCULAT CRITERIILE DE CONVERGEN NOMINAL? (studiu de caz)

1. Criteriul ratei inflaiei

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

European Union 2.22.1222.22.22.33.712.13.1

Belgium2.41.61.51.92.52.31.84.502.33.5

Bulgaria7.45.82.36.167.47.6122.533.4

Czech Republic4.51.4-0.12.61.62.136.30.61.22.1

Denmark2.32.420.91.71.91.73.61.12.22.7

Germany1.91.411.81.91.82.32.80.21.22.5

Estonia5.63.61.434.14.46.710.60.22.75.1

Ireland44.742.32.22.72.93.1-1.7-1.61.2

Greece3.73.93.433.53.334.21.34.73.1

Spain2.83.63.13.13.43.62.84.1-0.223.1

France1.81.92.22.31.91.91.63.20.11.72.3

Italy2.32.62.82.32.22.223.50.81.62.9

Cyprus22.841.922.22.24.40.22.63.5

Latvia2.522.96.26.96.610.115.33.3-1.24.2

Lithuania1.60.3-1.11.22.73.85.811.14.21.24.1

Luxembourg2.42.12.53.23.832.74.102.83.7

Hungary9.15.24.76.83.547.9644.73.9

Malta2.52.61.92.72.52.60.74.71.822.5

Netherlands5.13.92.21.41.51.71.62.210.92.5

Austria2.31.71.322.11.72.23.20.41.73.6

Poland5.31.90.73.62.21.32.64.242.73.9

Portugal4.43.73.32.52.132.42.7-0.91.43.6

Romania34.522.515.311.99.16.64.97.95.66.15.8

Slovenia8.67.55.73.72.52.53.85.50.92.12.1

Slovakia7.23.58.47.52.84.31.93.90.90.74.1

Finland2.721.30.10.81.31.63.91.61.73.3

Sweden2.71.92.310.81.51.73.31.91.91.4

United Kingdom1.21.31.41.32.12.32.33.62.23.34.5

Rata anual a inflaiei inta de inflaie

Rata dobnzii

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

EU (27 countries):54.924.234.383.74.034.564.544.133.824.3

Belgium5.595.134.994.184.153.433.814.334.423.93.464.23

Bulgaria:::6.455.363.874.184.545.387.226.015.36

Czech Republic:6.314.884.124.823.543.84.34.634.843.883.71

Denmark5.645.085.064.314.33.43.814.294.283.592.932.73

Germany5.264.84.784.074.043.353.764.223.983.222.742.61

Ireland5.515.015.014.134.083.333.764.314.535.235.749.6

Greece6.15.35.124.274.263.594.074.54.85.179.0915.8

Spain5.535.124.964.124.13.393.784.314.373.984.255.44

France5.394.944.864.134.13.413.84.34.233.653.123.32

Italy5.585.195.034.254.263.564.054.494.684.314.045.42

Cyprus:7.625.74.745.85.164.134.484.64.64.65.79

Latvia:7.575.414.94.863.884.135.286.4312.410.35.91

Lithuania:8.156.065.324.53.74.084.555.61145.575.16

Luxembourg5.524.864.73.322.842.413.34.464.614.233.172.92

Hungary:7.957.096.828.196.67.126.748.249.127.287.64

Malta:6.195.825.044.694.564.324.724.814.544.194.49

Netherlands5.44.964.894.124.13.373.784.294.233.692.992.99

Austria5.565.084.964.144.133.393.84.34.363.943.233.32

Poland:10.77.365.786.95.225.235.486.076.125.785.96

Portugal5.595.165.014.184.143.443.914.424.524.215.410.2

Romania::::::7.237.137.79.697.347.29

Slovenia::8.726.44.683.813.854.534.614.383.834.97

Slovakia:8.046.944.995.033.524.414.494.724.713.874.45

Finland5.485.044.984.134.113.353.784.294.293.743.013.01

Sweden5.375.115.34.644.423.383.74.173.893.252.892.61

United Kingdom5.335.014.914.584.934.464.375.064.53.363.362.87

CDS - prima de asigurare pe care un creditor trebuie s o plteasc unui ter pentru ca, n cazul n care debitorul intr n incapacitate de plat, s i poat recupera integral suma plasat.

Deficitul bugetar

ESA952002200320042005200620072008200920102011

EU (27 countries)-2.6-3.2-2.9-2.5-1.5-0.9-2.4-6.9-6.5-4.4

Belgium-0.1-0.1-0.1-2.50.4-0.1-1-5.5-3.8-3.7

Bulgaria-1.2-0.41.911.91.21.7-4.3-3.1-2

Czech Republic-6.5-6.7-2.8-3.2-2.4-0.7-2.2-5.8-4.8-3.3

Denmark0.40.12.15.25.24.83.2-2.7-2.5-1.8

Germany-3.8-4.2-3.8-3.3-1.60.2-0.1-3.1-4.1-0.8

Estonia0.31.71.61.62.52.4-2.9-20.21.1

Ireland-0.40.41.41.72.90.1-7.4-13.9-30.9-13.4

Greece-4.8-5.6-7.5-5.2-5.7-6.5-9.8-15.6-10.7-9.4

Spain-0.2-0.3-0.11.32.41.9-4.5-11.2-9.7-9.4

France-3.1-4.1-3.6-2.9-2.3-2.7-3.3-7.5-7.1-5.2

Italy-3.1-3.6-3.5-4.4-3.4-1.6-2.7-5.4-4.5-3.9

Cyprus-4.4-6.6-4.1-2.4-1.23.50.9-6.1-5.3-6.3

Latvia-2.3-1.6-1-0.4-0.5-0.4-4.2-9.8-8.1-3.4

Lithuania-1.9-1.3-1.5-0.5-0.4-1-3.3-9.4-7.2-5.5

Luxembourg2.10.5-1.101.43.73.2-0.8-0.8-0.3

Hungary-9-7.3-6.5-7.9-9.4-5.1-3.7-4.6-4.44.3

Malta-5.8-9.2-4.7-2.9-2.8-2.3-4.6-3.9-3.6-2.7

Netherlands-2.1-3.1-1.7-0.30.50.20.5-5.6-5.1-4.5

Austria-0.7-1.5-4.4-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.9-4.1-4.5-2.5

Poland-5-6.2-5.4-4.1-3.6-1.9-3.7-7.4-7.9-5

Portugal-3.4-3.7-4-6.5-4.6-3.1-3.6-10.2-9.8-4.4

Romania-2-1.5-1.2-1.2-2.2-2.9-5.7-9-6.8-5.5

Slovenia-2.4-2.7-2.3-1.5-1.40-1.9-6-5.7-6.4

Slovakia-8.2-2.8-2.4-2.8-3.2-1.8-2.1-8-7.7-4.9

Finland4.22.62.52.94.25.34.4-2.5-2.5-0.6

Sweden-1.3-10.62.22.33.62.2-0.70.30.4

United Kingdom-2.1-3.4-3.5-3.4-2.7-2.8-5.1-11.5-10.2-7.8

Eurostat utilizeaza metoda ESA, in vreme ce FMI foloseste metoda cash. In cazul standardului ESA de pilda, garantiile de stat se adauga la deficit, iar deficitul calculat astfel este mai mare decat cel obtinut prin calculul folosit de FMI.

Standardul ESA95 are ca principale diferent fata de metodologia cash inregistrarea veniturilor si cheltuielilor in sistem accrual (pe baza de angajamente, nu de plati efective precum in sistemul cash).Datoria public

1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

EU (27 countries)65.861.96160.561.962.362.861.65962.274.68082.5

Belgium11410810710398.49492888489.295.795.597.8

Bulgaria77.672.56652.444.43727.521.617.213.714.616.216.3

Czech Republic15.817.823.927.128.628.928.428.327.928.734.237.840.8

Denmark58.152.449.649.547.245.137.832.127.133.440.642.946.6

Germany61.360.259.160.764.466.268.56865.266.874.582.580.5

Estonia6.55.14.85.75.654.64.43.74.57.26.76.1

Ireland4735.135.23230.729.527.324.625.144.564.992.2106

Greece9410310410297.498.6100106107113130148171

Spain62.459.455.652.648.846.343.239.736.340.253.961.569.3

France58.957.356.958.862.964.966.463.764.268.279.282.386

Italy113109108105104103106106103106116119121

Cyprus59.359.661.265.169.770.969.464.758.848.958.561.371.1

Latvia12.512.414.113.614.71512.510.7919.836.744.542.2

Lithuania22.723.62322.22119.318.317.916.815.529.337.938.5

Luxembourg6.46.26.36.36.16.36.16.76.714.415.319.218.3

Hungary60.856.152.755.958.659.561.765.9677379.881.881.4

Malta57.154.960.559.167.671.769.76461.96267.668.370.9

Netherlands61.153.850.750.55252.451.847.445.358.560.863.165.5

Austria66.866.266.866.265.364.764.262.360.263.869.27272.4

Poland39.636.837.642.247.145.747.147.74547.150.954.856.4

Portugal51.450.753.856.859.461.967.769.468.471.783.293.5108

Romania21.722.525.724.921.518.715.812.412.813.423.630.533.4

Slovenia24.126.326.527.827.227.326.726.423.1223538.646.9

Slovakia47.850.348.943.442.441.534.230.529.627.935.64143.3

Finland45.743.842.541.544.544.441.739.635.233.943.548.649

Sweden64.353.954.752.551.750.350.445.340.238.842.639.538.4

United Kingdom43.74137.737.739.14142.243.344.252.367.879.485

Cursul de schimb

_1365445943.unknown

_1365446553.unknown

_1365444885.unknown

Documents

CURSUL 8