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Tnh hung do Nguyn Xun Thnh, ging vin Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright bin son. Cc nghin cu tnhhung ca Chng trnh Ging dy Fulbright c s dng lm ti liu cho tho lun trn lp hc, ch khng phi a rakhuyn ngh chnh sch.

Bn quyn 2011 Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

28/07/2011

N G U Y N X U N T H N H

1

Xy dng ngn lu t do ca d n trn c s thit lp cc bng sau trn Excel:

Ch s gi

Ngn lu chi u t

Lch n vay Doanh thu ph giao thng v chi ph vn hnh, bo tr, duy tu Ngn lu d n

2

Tnh WACC ca d n trn c s d n c ti tr mt phn bng h tr ngn sch vi chi ph vn0% v phn cn li bng vn vay ODA.

Hy tnh NPV, IRR trn quan im tng u t v h s an ton tr n (DSCR) ca d n.

3

Da trn kt qu tnh ton cu 2, anh/ch c kt lun g v tnh kh thi ti chnh v kh nng tr nca d n?

Hy thit lp ngn lu trn quan im ngn sch. Nu chi ph vn ngn sch (theo gi danh ngha)bng 10% th NPV ca ngn sch bng bao nhiu?

i vi ngun h tr t ngn sch, VEC xut rng 60% hng mc chi ph xy dng c h tr t

ngn sch thay v 40% nh trong m hnh c s. VEC cng ngh iu chnh khon vay ODA nhsau: thi gian n hn n gc c tng ln 10 nm (t 2011 n 2020), sau n gc c tr u trong20 nm. Tnh kh thi ti chnh, kh nng tr n v gnh nng ngn sch ca d n theo i nh thno?

Nu l lnh o VEC th anh/ch c xut g (khc vi xut trn) m bo d n kh thi v mtti chnh v c kh nng tr n? Hy trnh by kt qu tnh ton c th v gii thch y .

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Hy phn tch nhy NPV v IRR ca d n theo quan im tng u t khi tt c cc hng mc chiph u t trong Bng 1 tng ln 10%, 20% v 30% so vi m hnh c s. Tm gi tr chuyn i(switching value) ca t l tng chi ph u t. Da vo kt qu nhy ny, anh ch rt ra kt lun g?

Hng mc chi ph xy dng theo gi 2011 (trong Bng 1) c phn phi tam gic vi yu v bng 965,475triu USD, gi tr ln nht bng 1158,570 triu USD v gi tr nh nht bng 868,928 triu USD.

Hng mc chi ph n b gii ta theo gi 2011 (trong Bng 1) cng c phn phi tam gic vi yu vbng 226,485 triu USD, gi tr ln nht bng 317,079 triu USD v gi tr nh nht bng 169,864 triuUSD.

Tt c cc gi tr d bo lng xe trong Bng 4 (tr nhng c gi tr bng 0 hay bng 70000) u cphn phi chun vi gi tr k vng bng gi tr trong m hnh c s v lch chun bng 10% gi trk vng).

Hy chy m phng NPV d n theo quan im tng u t. Da vo kt qu m phng ny, anh chrt ra kt lun g?

D n b chm tin 1 nm nh bng di y.

Tin thc hin u t (theo % chi ph theo gi 2011)2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Xy dng 0,0% 5,5% 20,0% 32,6% 37,2% 4,6%n b v gii ta 50,0% 50,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%

Thit b cho VEC 50,0% 50,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%R ph bom mn 50,0% 50,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0%Dch v t vn 5,3% 12,9% 22,4% 22,4% 22,4% 14,7%Thit b ng cao tc 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 30,0% 70,0%Qun l 20,0% 20,0% 20,0% 20,0% 10,0% 10,0%

Nm 2018, d n mi i vo hot ng. VEC vn s c thu ph trong 30 nm t 2018 n 2047. Lchgii ngn n vay s phi thay i cho thch hp, nhng s nm n hn v k hn tr n vn khng i.Lu lng xe on IC7IC8 nm 2047 bng 67.542 PCU. Mi thng s khc vn nh trong kch bn cs.

Hy tnh NPV, IRR trn quan im tng u t v h s an ton tr n (DSCR) ca d n. Tnh kh thi

ti chnh v kh nng tr n ca d n thay i i nh th no.