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A background paper – ICT and Low Carbon Growth in China - developed for DESC China by Simon Zadek, Maya Forstater, Kelly Yu and Jon Kornik presents a quantitative analysis of the impacts of ICT on low carbon growth in China, and includes insights with key Chinese and international policy and industrial research groups on the possible policy measures and initiatives that could secure the contribution of ICT to reducing China’s carbon footprint whilst promoting scientific development.The document upported discussion at the 2010 Summit on China’s ICT and Low Carbon Economy Development organised by the Ministry of Industry and Information, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection, held in Beijing on 17th December 2010.
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Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
3 December 2010
ICT and Low Carbon Growth in China
Dr Simon Zadek December 2010
Dr Simon Zadek 2010年12月
中国的ICT产业与�低碳经济增长
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Economic Growth 经济增长
• Sustaining economic growth • 可持续经济增长�
Carbon Emissions 二氧化碳排放
• Controlling carbon emissions • 控制二氧化碳排放�
The low carbon growth challenge 低碳增长面临的挑战�
• Can ICTs accelerate green transformation?
• ICT技术能否帮助实现绿色转型？�
What role for ICTs ?
ICT技术的作用？�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Interconnected challenges and opportuni;es 挑战与机会�
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排�
ICT sector value added
ICT产业经济产值增长�
ICT enabled compe;;veness
利用ICT技术提高竞争力�
ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部门碳排放�足迹�
Energy use and carbon emissions
能源消耗与二氧化碳排放�
Economic value added
经济产值增长�
Direct 直接
Indirect 间接
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 4
ICT sector to account for 7.2% of GDP by 2020
2020年ICT产业可创造7.2%的GDP�
4
Note: 2020 figure estimated based on current % of ICT value added/GDP in US Source: NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
… 2020 (E)
59,537
0 2008 (E)
5,000
60,000
10,000
XX % of GDP
2.2 2.3 2.6
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.0
4.2
7.2
Chinese ICT Sector Value Added (100M RMB)
中国ICT部门创造的增加值(1亿人民币)�
ICT sector value added
ICT部门经济产值增长�ICT enabled compe;;veness
利用ICT技术提高竞争力�
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT部門碳排放足迹
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Source: OECD Productivity Database, September 2005, www.oecd.org/statistics/productivity; World Bank Databank; team analysis
RMB of GDP per RMB of ICT investment in OECD countries
经合组织国家ICT产业投资创造的GDP Each RMB of increase in ICT asset base creates around RMB1.6 of GDP per year
ICT资产投资每增加1元每年可创造1.6元的GDP�
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compeNNveness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT部門碳排放足迹
美国�
英国�
瑞典�
西班牙�
葡萄牙�
新西兰�
荷兰�
意大利�
爱尔兰�
法国�
芬兰�
丹麦�
加拿大�
比利时�
奥地利�
澳大利亚�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 6
Source: Global Information Technology Report, 2009-2010, 2010 World Economic Forum; team analysis
China’s global Networked Readiness rank, max = 1; min = 133
中国网络就绪度全球排名, 最先排名 = 1; 最后排名 = 133�
China ranks lower globally in terms of enabling environment for ICT
中国ICT产业发展环境全球排名较低�
Infra 基础设施
Poli;cal& regulatory 政策与 法规
Market 市场
Gov‐ernment 政府
Business 商业
Ind‐ Ividual 个体
Gov‐ Ernment 政府
Business 商业
Ind‐ Ividual 个体
Total 总计
Environment 环境
Readiness 就绪度
Usage 利用
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compeNNveness
利用ICT技术提高竞争力 ICT enabled emission reduc;ons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT部門碳排放足迹
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 7
ICT value chain footprint ICT部門价值链碳排放足迹
• 2007 ICT footprint in China of 190 Mt CO2e in 2007 (2.4 % of China total).
• By 2020 footprint projected to reach 415 Mt (3 – 3.3% of China total)
• 中国ICT部门2007年的排放量为1.9亿吨二氧化碳当量（占全国排放总量的2.4%）�
• 2020年将增长到4.15亿吨（占全国排放总量的3 - 3.3%）�
Manufacturing
生产�
China’s ICT footprint growing from 190MtCO2 in 2007 to 415Mt by 2020
中国的ICT部门碳排放足迹将从2007年的1.9亿吨增长到2020年的4.15亿吨�
Use
使用�
Disposal/recycling
处理/回收�
Raw materials
原材料�
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compe;;veness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部门碳排放足迹�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 8
!
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2020 2005
40‐45%
中国总体碳排放强度�
吨二氧化碳当量/GDP（百万人民币）�
中国ICT部门碳排放强度�
吨二氧化碳当量/经济产值增长（百万人民币）
!
"#!!!
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%#!!!
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2020 2007
‐64%
Overall China emissions intensity tCO2e/RMBm GDP
China ICT sector emissions intensity tCO2e/RMBm value add PotenNal
reducNon in ICT carbon intensity of 64% from 2007 to 2020
2007-2020年，ICT部门碳排放强度有望降低64%�
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compe;;veness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部门碳排放足迹�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
China emissions intensity, tCO2e/RMBm GDP 中国的二氧化碳排放强度, 吨二氧化碳当量/GDP（百万人民币）
Emissions intensity target 减排目标
ICT contribution ICT部門对减排的贡献率
ICT enables emission reducNons of 1.4 – 1.7Gt CO2 by 2020, or 13‐18% of intensity reducNon target
2020年ICT部门将实现减排1.4 – 1.7总吨二氧化碳，相当于总量减排目标的 13-18%�
2020 2005
‐40‐45%
13‐18%
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compe;;veness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reducNons
利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排�ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部門碳排放足迹
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Main ICT potenNal in grids, buildings, motors and logisNcs
ICT技术在电网、建筑、电机及物流领域的减排潜力� Total
Dematerializa;on *
Smart Logis;cs *
Smart Motors *
Smart Buildings *
Smart Grids 481
1,536
Emission reductions from ICT enablement in China in 2020, MtCO2e
1,382 1,689
2020年中国利用ICT技术实现减排, 百万吨二氧化碳当量
合计
非物质化
智能物流
智能电机
智能建筑
智能电网
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compe;;veness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reducNons 利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT部門碳排放足迹
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Source: Smart 2020; Smart2020-US; Smart2020 – Germany; team analysis
Comparison of breakdown of ICT enablement potenNal across regions
不同地区利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排的潜力�Smart motors have a relaNvely higher potenNal in China than average and the US
在智能电机应用方面，中国比美国及世界平均水平的减排潜力更高�
ICT sector value added ICT部門经济产值增长
ICT enabled compe;;veness 利用ICT技术提高竞争力
ICT enabled emission reducNons
利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排 ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部門碳排放足迹
Smart buildings 智能建筑
100%
Smart logis;cs 智能物流
Smart grids
智能电网
Smart motors智能电机
Demate‐ rializa;on 非物质化
Germany 德国
14%
25%
36%
8%
US 美国
29%
30%
9%
World 世界
25%
23%
15%
7%
China 中国
21%
18%
19%
11%
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Summary in numbers 统计数据�
190Mt CO2 in 2007, falling 64% in
intensity by 2020
2007年二氧化碳排放量为1.9亿
吨，2020年将下降64%�
13‐18% of 2020 emissions intensity
target
2020年实现13-18%的减排目标�
Each RMB of ICT investment drives RMB1.6 of GDP per
year ICT产业每投资1元人民币每年可创造
1.6元GDP�
7.2% of GDP by 2020
2020年创造7.2%GDP�
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排�
ICT sector value added
ICTY部门经济产值增长�
ICT enabled compe;;veness
利用ICT技术提高竞争力�
ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部门碳排放�足迹�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
ICT impacts green transforma;on in four ways 利用ICT技术可通过4个途径实现绿色转型 �
Greening ICT sector
ICT部門 绿色转型
Green the economy
经济体�绿色转型�
Accelerate growth
加快增长�
New knowledge driven industry
新知识驱动 产业发展
ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
利用ICT技术实现二氧化碳减排�
ICT sector value added
ICT部门经济产值增长�
ICT enabled compe;;veness
利用ICT技术提高竞争力�
ICT sector carbon footprint
ICT部门碳排放足迹�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
• InformaNon and awareness about the poten;al for cost and energy savings.
• Capability to implement and integrate ICT enabled solu;ons.
• Capital cost of investments in ICT.
• Return on investment in ICT.
• Business models for new technologies.
• CoordinaNon of systemic transforma;ons of infrastructure.
What are the obstacles? 面临的主要障碍？�
• 关于成本节约和节能潜力的信息和意识不足。 �
• 综合利用ICT技术解决方案的能力不够。 �
• 缺乏对ICT部门的资本投资。�
• ICT部门投资回报率不高。�
• 缺乏利用新技术的商业模式。�
• 基础设施的系统转型缺乏协调机制。�
How can policy help to overcome these obstacles? 如何利用政策克服这些障碍?�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
Green procurement.
CreaNng protocols for measuring the emission savings from ICTs
IntegraNng ICT into overall strategy for industrial energy efficiency.
IntegraNng demand management soluNons into the smart grid.
ConNnue to develop a stronger ICT infrastructure.
Policies and partnerships 政策与伙伴关系�
绿色采购。�
制定衡量ICT技术减排能力的标准。�
在整体战略中采用ICT技术提高工业节能。�
在智能电网中采用需求管理方案。�
持续开发更强大的ICT基础设施。 �
Businesses Cities and regions National government
企业�城市及地区�国家政府�
How best to develop a policy roadmap? 如何制定有效的政策路线图?�
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
3 December 2010
Thank-you!
Dr Simon Zadek [email protected]
Dr Simon Zadek [email protected]
谢谢!�
