DESC: ICT Enablement of Low Carbon Cities

Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

3 December 2010

ICT Enablement of Low

Carbon Cities

Jon Kornik

December 2010

Jon Kornik

2010年12月

利用ICT技术创建低碳城市

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/


Executive summary执行摘要

• China’s cities account for

the majority of China’s

emissions and are expected

to see strong continued

growth in coming decades

• ICT can help unlock growth

potential

• ICT can also play a major role

in enabling emission

reductions across the

economy and particularly in

cities

中国碳排放中城市排放占主体，未来几十年还将持续增长

利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势头

利用ICT技术还可实现整个经济体尤其是城市地区的减排



Cities account for most of the world’s GHG emissions全球温室气体排放中城市排放占主体

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2009; Kamal-Chaoui, Lamia and Alexis Robert (eds.) (2009), “Competitive Cities and Climate Change”,

OECD, Regional Development Working Papers N° 2, 2009, OECD publishing, © OECD; C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group; team analysis

% attributable to cities

% 城市排放贡献率

44

50

8060

8060

World population

世界人口

China population

中国人口

Energy consumption

能源消费

Global GHG emissions

全球温室气体排放



Most emissions in cities from buildings and transport城市排放主要来自建筑及交通部门

•In New York City approximately 75% of landfill gas is captured and utilized. For the purposes of this analysis, it has been

assumed that all of this methane is released into the atmosphere to make it more comparable with China

• 纽约市约有75%的废气被回收利用。在本报告分析中假设这一部分废气被排放到大气中，这样可以方便与中国的数据相比较。Source: Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions, April 2007

数据来源：纽约市温室气体排放清单，2007年4月

Case Study: New York City

Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Percent

Street lights

街道照明

Vehicles

车辆

Buildings

建筑物

Industrial

工业

Institutional

机构

Commercial

商业

Residential

居住区

Buildings (mainly energy)

建筑物 (主要为能源消耗)

Waste*

废物Transport

交通

Municipality

市政

案例研究：纽约温室气体排放源, 百分比



China’s cities will play an even greater role in the future中国城市在未来排放趋势中的作用将日趋重要

Source: Guardian Datastore, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/aug/18/percentage-population-living-cities, last visited December 14, 2010;

UNDP/Renmin World Development Report China

China’s urban population, % of total

中国城市人口数量，占人口总数百分比

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 2020 (E)

2030 (E)

20101980 1990 2000

• 53% by 2020 and 60% by 2030

• 2020年将占53%，2030年约60%

• 350 million more people by 2020

• 2020年城市人口总数将达3.5亿

• 50,000 new high rise buildings

and 170 mass transit systems

• 需要新建5万座高层建筑和170套公共运输系统

• Low carbon design to avoid lock-

in

• 需用采用低碳设计防止锁定效应


http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/aug/18/percentage-population-living-cities








Executive summary执行总结

• China’s cities account for the

majority of China’s emissions

and are expected to see

strong continued growth in

coming decades


potential





cities

• 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体，未来几十年还将持续增长

• 利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势头

• 利用ICT技术还可实现整个经济体尤其是城市地区的减排



ICT value add will contribute 7.2% to GDP by 20202020年ICT产业将创造7.2%的GDP

Note: 2020 figure estimated based on current % of ICT value added/GDP in US

Source: NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009

China ICT added value, 100M RMB

中国ICT产业创造的价值, 1亿人民币

11,459

9,948

8,155

6,701

5,193

3,5442,7152,372

60,000

5,000

10,000

02007 2020 (E)

59,537

…2008 (E)200620052004200320022001

XX% of GDP

占GDP百分比

2.2 2.32.6

3.2

3.6

3.9

4.0

4.2

7.2



China lags developed countries in Networked Readiness中国在网络就绪度方面落后于发达国家

Source: Global Information Technology Report, 2009-2010, 2010 World Economic Forum; team analysis

Networked Readiness Index score

网络就绪度指数

4.65

5.65

3.87

4.31

3.60

2.92

2.68

2.57

4.72

3.65

3.41

3.12

China中国

USA美国

India印度

Sweden瑞典

Trinidad & Tobago特立尼达及多巴哥

Malaysia马来西亚

Suriname苏里南

Bolivia玻利维亚

Lesotho莱索托

Chad乍得

• Enabling environment

• 应用环境

• Stakeholder

enablement

• 利益相关者普及程度

• Stakeholder usage

• 利益相关者使用情况

Score includes:

指标包括: High高

Upper middle中等偏上

Lower middle中等偏下

Low低



ICT drives growth, especially in emerging economiesICT产业可驱动经济增长，尤其是在新兴经济体国家

Source: World Bank, “Information and Communications for Development”, 2009 from Qiang, Christine, “Telecommunications and Economic

Growth”, unpublished paper, World Bank, 2008

% increase in economic growth per 10% increase in penetration

技术投入每增加10%可产生的经济产值增长百分比

0.43

0.73

0.60

0.81 0.77

1.121.21

1.38

Fixed

固定Mobile

移动Internet

互联网Broadband

宽带

High income countries

高收入国家

Low and middle income countries

中低收入国家



Executive summary执行总结





coming decades


potential

• ICT can also play a major

role in enabling emission



cities






ICT-enabled emission reductions from five areas利用5种ICT技术实现减排

Source: Smart2020; team analysis

SMARTgrids

• Reduce T&D losses

• 减少输配电损失

• Reduce consumption

through user info

• 通过掌握用户信息降低耗电

• Integration of

renewables

• 综合利用再生能源

• Efficient generation of

power, combined heat

and power

• 提高发电效率，利用热电联产

SMART buildings

• Improved building design for

energy efficiency

• 提高建筑节能设计

• Reduced building space

through design

• 建筑空间节约设计

• Building MS 建材

• HVAC automation

• HVAC自动化

• Lighting automation

• 照明自动化

• Ventilation on demand 通风

• Intelligent commissioning

• 智能调试

• Benchmarking and building

recommissioning

• 基准化和建筑再调试

• Voltage optimization 电压优化

SMART motors

• Optimization of

variable speed motor

systems

• 可变速电机系统优化

• ICT driven automation

in key industrial

processes

• 利用ICT技术实现关键工艺自动化

SMART logistics

• Optimization of logistics

network

• 物流网络优化

• Intermodal shift 水陆联运

• Reduction in inventory

• 减少库存

• Optimization of truck

itinerary 汽车运输路线优化

• Eco-driving 环保驾驶

• Maximization of ship load

factor 运输荷载因子最大化

• Optimization of ship

operations 装运操作优化

• Minimization of packaging

减少包装

• Optimize truck route

planning

• 汽车运输路线设计优化

Demate-rialization

• E-commerce

• 电子商务

• E-paper

• 电子文档

• Video-conferencing

• 视频会议

• Telecommuting

• 电子通信

智能电网智能建筑智能电机智能物流非物质化



ICT could enable 1.4-1.7 Gt CO2e reductions by 20202020年ICT技术可帮助实现减排1.4-1.7总吨二氧化碳


167

274

286

328

481

1,536

Emission reductions from ICT enablement in China in 2020, MtCO2e

2020年利用ICT技术实现减排能力, 百万吨二氧化碳当量

1,382 1,689

Smart Grids

智能电网

Smart Buildings

智能建筑

Smart Motors

智能电机

Smart Logistics

智能物流

Dematerialization

非物质化

Total

合计



Smart buildings could reduce 2020 emissions by 328Mt2020年智能建筑可实现减排3.28亿吨二氧化碳


Emission reductions from Smart Buildings, 100% = 328MtCO2e

智能建筑减排能力, 100% = 3.28亿吨二氧化碳当量

49%

14%

13%

7%

7%

4%3% 2%

1%

Improved building design for energy efficiency

Building management systems

Voltage optimization

HVAC automation

Reduced space through building design

Benchmarking and building commissioning

Lighting automation

提高建筑节能设计

建筑管理系统

电压优化

HVAC自动化

建筑空间节约设计

基准化和建筑调试

照明自动化

49%

14%

13%

7%

7%

4%3% 2%

1%




HVAC automation



Lighting automation

49%

14%

13%

7%

7%

4%3% 2%

1%




HVAC automation



Lighting automation

Improved building design for

energy efficiency



HVAC automation

Reduced space through

building design

Benchmarking and building

commissioning

Lighting automation



38%

21%

17%

10%

9%

4% 1%

Eco-driving

Optimization of logistics networkOptimization of truck delivery planningReduction in inventory

Minimization of packaging

Road congestion avoidance

Intermodal shift

Maximization of ship load factor

Optimization of ship operations

Smart logistics could reduce 2020 emissions by 274Mt2020年智能物流可实现减排2.74亿吨二氧化碳


Emission reductions from Smart Logistics, 100% = 274MtCO2e

智能物流减排能力, 100% = 2.74亿吨二氧化碳当量

49%

14%

13%

7%

7%

4%3% 2%

1%




HVAC automation



Lighting automation

Eco-driving

Optimization of logistics

network

Reduction in inventory


Maximization of ship load

factor

38%

21%

17%

10%

9%

4% 1%

Eco-driving




Intermodal shift



Optimization of truck delivery

planning


Intermodal shift

Optimization of ship

operations

49%

14%

13%

7%

7%

4%3% 2%

1%




HVAC automation



Lighting automation

环保驾驶

物流网络优化

减少库存

减少包装

运输荷载因子优化

38%

21%

17%

10%

9%

4% 1%

Eco-driving




Intermodal shift



汽车运输路线设计优化

避免交通拥堵

水陆联运

装运操作优化



ICT can contribute 13-18% of emission intensity target利用ICT技术可帮助实现13-18%的强度减排目标

Assumes constant exchange rate over time of RMB6.83/USD

Source: CEIC Database; “China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 – Scenario Analysis of Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions” – by Energy

Research Institute of NDRC; Smart2020, team analysis

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20202005

-40%

40% intensity reduction

tCO2e/RMBm GDP

45% intensity reduction

tCO2e/RMBm GDP

15.2 –18.5%

China emissions intensity target trajectory

中国的强度减排目标

ICT contribution to intensity reduction

ICT技术对强度减排的贡献率

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20202005

-45%

13.5 –16.5%

40% 强度减排

吨二氧化碳/GDP（百万人民币）

45% 强度减排




ICT sector emissions decrease faster than economyICT部门在整个经济体中减排速度最快

China emissions intensity

tCO2e/RMBm GDP

ICT emissions intensity

tCO2e/RMBm value add

Overall China economy

中国经济体

China ICT sector

中国ICT部门

中国的排放强度


ICT部门排放强度

吨二氧化碳/经济产值增长（百万人民币）

Note: Exchange rate of 6.831 USD/RMB

Source: CEIC Database; “China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 – Scenario Analysis of Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions” – by Energy

Research Institute of NDRC; Smart2020, NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009; team analysis

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20202005

40-45%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20202007

-64%



Conclusion结论





coming decades


potential





cities






3 December 2010

Thank-you!

Jon Kornikwww.zadek.net

Jon Kornikwww.zadek.net

谢谢!


http://www.zadek.net/

http://www.zadek.net/

Documents

DESC: ICT Enablement of Low Carbon Cities