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BACKGROUND GUIDE VMUN 2018 Disarmament and International Security Committee

Disarmament and International Security Committee GUIDE VMUN 2018 Disarmament and International Security Committee Vancouver Model United Nations The 17th Annual Session | January 19

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Page 1: Disarmament and International Security Committee GUIDE VMUN 2018 Disarmament and International Security Committee Vancouver Model United Nations The 17th Annual Session | January 19

B A C K G R O U N D G U I D E

V M U N 2 0 1 8

Disarmament and International Security Committee

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Vancouver Model United Nations The 17th Annual Session | January 19 - 21, 2018

Dear Delegates, My name is Sean Lee, and I am pleased to be serving as your director for the Disarmament and International Security Committee at VMUN 2018. I am currently a grade 12 student at St. George’s School, and have been deeply immersed in Model United Nations ever since I attended my first conference, VMUN 2013, during which I was a delegate in this very committee! I would first like to commend all of you for choosing to sign up for VMUN. I can promise you that the weekend will be a valuable experience if you take initiative; whether you improve your speaking skills, learn more about international relations, or meet new friends, I encourage all of you to try and gain something from the conference. The two topics we will be discussing in this committee are: Tension and Conflict in Post-Soviet States and Preventing the Weaponization of Space. Both of these topics require sufficient research and understanding of the various perspectives and priorities of different countries, as delegates will come into this committee seeking distinct solutions. These issues are currently near the forefront of international concerns, and are at the root of several critical socio-political controversies. Delegates will have to be diplomatic and cooperative in order to come to favourable resolutions to the topics at hand. DISEC is a large committee, and as a result, you will have a chance to interact with many other delegates during committee sessions. I highly encourage all of you to take advantage of this opportunity and be proactive throughout the conference. I assure you that it will make your experience much more enjoyable and meaningful. On behalf of the dais, I wish you the best of luck in your research and preparation for the conference. If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to email us. We look forward to meeting you all in January! Sincerely, Sean Lee DISEC Director

Ken Hong Secretary-General

Callum Shepard Chief of Staff

Jerry Jiao

Director-General

Andrew Wei Director of Logistics

Jadine Ngan USG General Assemblies

Eric Zhang

USG Specialized Agencies

Dillon Ramlochun USG Conference

Angelina Zhang

USG Delegate Affairs

Jerry Xu USG Delegate Affairs

Alan Chen

USG Finance

Meghna Lohia USG IT

Page 3: Disarmament and International Security Committee GUIDE VMUN 2018 Disarmament and International Security Committee Vancouver Model United Nations The 17th Annual Session | January 19

Position Paper Policy

What is a Position Paper? A position paper is a brief overview of a country’s stance on the topics being discussed by a particular committee. Though there is no specific format the position paper must follow, it should include a description of your positions your country holds on the issues on the agenda, relevant actions that your country has taken, and potential solutions that your country would support. At Vancouver Model United Nations, delegates should write a position paper for each of the committee’s topics. Each position paper should not exceed one page, and should all be combined into a single document per delegate.

Formatting Position papers should: — Include the name of the delegate, his/her country, and the committee — Be in a standard font (e.g. Times New Roman) with a 12-point font size and 1-inch document margins — Not include illustrations, diagrams, decorations, national symbols, watermarks, or page borders — Include citations and a bibliography, in any format, giving due credit to the sources used in research (not included in the 1-page limit) Due Dates and Submission Procedure Position papers for this committee are highly recommended. To be eligible for an award, you must submit a position paper. The submission deadline is January 7th, 2018. Once your position paper is complete, please save the file as your last name, your first name and send it as an attachment in an email, to your committee’s email address, with the subject heading as your last name, your first name — Position Paper. Please do not add any other attachments to the email or write anything else in the body. Both your position papers should be combined into a single PDF or Word document file; position papers submitted in another format will not be accepted. The email address for this committee is [email protected].

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Tension and Conflict in Post-Soviet States .................................................................................. 6

Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 6

Timeline ................................................................................................................................................... 6

Historical Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 7

Background of the Cold War............................................................................................................................7

Arms Race ...........................................................................................................................................................8

End of the Cold War and its Implications ......................................................................................................8

Past UN/ International Involvement ................................................................................................... 9

United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia ................................................................................................9

North Atlantic Treaty Organization ................................................................................................................9

Current Situation .................................................................................................................................. 10

Separatist Conflicts and Ethnic Tensions .................................................................................................... 10

Power Struggle in Eastern Europe ................................................................................................................ 10

Possible Solutions and Controversies ................................................................................................ 11

Economic Assistance ...................................................................................................................................... 11

Pursuing Political Reform .............................................................................................................................. 11

Appeasing Hostility between NATO and Russia ........................................................................................ 11

Bloc Positions ........................................................................................................................................ 12

Russian Federation and Allies ....................................................................................................................... 12

NATO and Allied States ................................................................................................................................. 12

Post-Soviet States ............................................................................................................................................ 12

Discussion Questions ........................................................................................................................... 12

Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 13

Preventing the Weaponization of Space ..................................................................................... 15

Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 15

Timeline ................................................................................................................................................. 15

Historical Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 16

Past UN/International Involvement .................................................................................................. 17

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Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) ..................................................................................................... 17

Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) ..................................................................................................................... 18

Outer Space Treaty ......................................................................................................................................... 18

Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) .................................................................. 18

Current Situation .................................................................................................................................. 18

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) .................................................................................................. 19

Military Satellites ............................................................................................................................................. 19

Anti Satellite Weapons (ASAT) .................................................................................................................... 19

Possible Solutions and Controversies ................................................................................................ 20

Revising International Regulations............................................................................................................... 20

Confidence-Building Measures ..................................................................................................................... 20

Defining Key Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 20

Bloc Positions ........................................................................................................................................ 20

The United States of America........................................................................................................................ 20

China................................................................................................................................................................. 21

Russian Federation .......................................................................................................................................... 21

European Union .............................................................................................................................................. 21

Other Nations with Developed Space Programs ........................................................................................ 21

Nations without Space Technologies ........................................................................................................... 21

Discussion Questions ........................................................................................................................... 22

Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 23

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Tension and Conflict in Post-Soviet States

Overview

Although the international community is no more than three decades removed from the Cold War, the beginning of a similar conflict has emerged as a realistic possibility. With recent conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine, along with substantial political and military tension in the Baltic Region, it seems that more focused and direct attention towards Russia and its foreign policy towards its neighbours in the West is more important than ever. Thus, member states of the Disarmament and International Security Committee are now tasked with mediating any current conflicts in the region, while also formulating a sustainable framework for long-term peace.

Timeline

March 12, 1947 — President Harry Truman of the United States announces the Truman Doctrine, a policy that provided political, military, and economic aid to democratic nations under threat from authoritarian powers.1

June 3, 1948 — The United States enacts the Marshall Plan, with the purpose of assisting economic recovery in Western Europe through direct financial aid.2

April 4, 1949 — Several European and North American nations establish the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance against Soviet aggression.3

July 27, 1953 — The United Nations, North Korea, and China sign an armistice, bringing the Korean War to a close at a stalemate.4

October 16-28, 1962 — After an American spy plane discovers nuclear missile sites being built by the Soviet Union in Cuba, the United States establishes a naval blockade around the island.5 The Soviets dismantle the weapon site in exchange for a pledge from the United States not to invade Cuba. 6

April 30, 1975 — The North Vietnamese Army captures Saigon, marking the end of the Vietnam War. Vietnam is eventually unified under Communist control.7

December 2-3, 1989 — The governments of the United States and Soviet Union announce the end of the Cold War.8

December 26, 1991 — The Supreme Soviet recognizes the dissolution of the Soviet Union.9

1 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/truman-doctrine 2 http://marshallfoundation.org/marshall/the-marshall-plan/history-marshall-plan/ 3 http://nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/declassified_139339.htm 4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/worldwars/coldwar/korea_hickey_01.shtml 5 https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx 6 Ibid. 7 http://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war 8 http://www.ushistory.org/us/59e.asp 9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union

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August 2008 — Russia, accusing Georgia of aggression against South Ossetia, launches a large scale invasion of Georgia before agreeing to a ceasefire.10 Since then, the ceasefire has been violated multiple times and the conflict remains unresolved.

March 18, 2014 — Russia annexes Crimea after the territory voted to join Russia, in a referendum that was deemed illegal and unjust by Ukraine and the United Nations.11

September 2015 — Russia enters the Syrian Civil War after an official request by the Syrian government for military help against rebel and jihadist groups.12

July 9, 2016 — NATO officially approves the deployment of four multinational battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter any potential Russian threat to the region.13

Historical Analysis

In order to comprehend and contextualize the status quo in Post-Soviet states, it is imperative to have a foundational understanding of the historical events that shaped the current political state of affairs in the region. Specifically, knowledge of and insight into the Cold War are key to understanding Russia’s current foreign policy towards its Western neighbours.

Background of the Cold War The unconditional surrender of the Axis powers in 1945 quashed the immediate threat of international war and violence; however, the end of the Second World War also initiated the unravelling of the already unstable wartime alliance between the United States and the Soviet Union. The previous decades had already laid the foundation for both of the aforementioned nations to develop as global superpowers, and due to ideological differences and a struggle for power and influence in Europe, a period of unprecedented geopolitical tensions ensued that defined the following decades.14

While there is no concrete date for the beginning of the Cold War, it is generally agreed upon that the conflict began in 1947-1948, when the United States enacted the Marshall Plan to extend its influence in Western Europe, while the Soviet Union supported Communist Regimes in a number of Eastern European states.15 Eventually, the involved actors separated into two distinct blocs: the Western Bloc, led by the United States and Great Britain, and the Eastern Bloc, consisting of the Soviet Union and its satellite states. The two blocs had stark ideological differences, and the Cold War was essentially the period in which these two blocs maintained a competitive political and economic rivalry.

Having recently experienced the destruction of World War II, neither of the blocs actively pursued a full-scale physical war. Thus, the Cold War can be best characterized as a period of extreme hostility and tension. However,

10 http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/03/13/519471110/along-a-shifting-border-georgia-and-russia-maintain-an-uneasy-peace 11 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18287223 12 http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/russia-iran-turkey-game-syria-170126131318559.html 13 http://estonianworld.com/security/nato-approves-the-deployment-of-four-battalions-to-the-baltics-and-poland/ 14 https://www.britannica.com/event/Cold-War 15 Ibid.

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this rivalry did lead to several proxy wars fought between the United States and the Soviet Union. Most notable were the Korean and Vietnam Wars, both of which resulted in massive casualties and devastation.16

Arms Race Another key aspect of the Cold War was the technological side of the conflict. The United States had already developed a working atomic bomb by the end of World War II, and the Soviet Union followed almost immediately, conducting its first successful weapons test based on the American design in 1949.17 This brought an end to America’s monopoly of atomic weaponry, and sparked what was essentially a nuclear arms race between the two nations, both of which were investing massive sums of resources into developing their nuclear arsenals.

This arms race reached its height in 1962, when the United States discovered that the Soviet Union was positioning nuclear missiles in communist Cuba.18 In response, the U.S. established a military blockade around the island, demonstrating its willingness to use military force if necessary.

At this point, a nuclear war seemed within the realm of possibility. Many anticipated that the world was at the brink of destruction, and tensions were at an all time high. However, an agreement was eventually reached, with the Soviet Union agreeing to dismantle its missiles and the U.S. promising not to invade Cuba.19 Both parties emerged from the conflict with a better understanding of the dangers of risking nuclear war, and as a result, further avoided that dangerous possibility for the rest of the war.

End of the Cold War and its Implications The Cold War began to subside in the 1980s, primarily due to the administration of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. When Gorbachev rose to power in 1985, the U.S.S.R was in a period of economic stagnation; to stimulate the economy, Gorbachev introduced glasnost (open discussion) and perestroika (restructuring).20 The result of these policies was a democratization of the Soviet political system and a drastic increase of individual freedoms, which led to the exposure of government corruption, eventually culminating with the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.21

It was during this time that Communism in Eastern Europe significantly weakened, and communist regimes in the region were quickly overthrown and replaced with comparatively liberal and democratic governments. In the summer of 1989, Tadeusz Mazowiecki was elected Prime Minister of Poland, becoming the first non-Communist Prime Minister in Eastern Europe.22 The fall of the Berlin Wall in the same year was the most apparent symbol of Communism’s downfall, and the event sparked further democratization in nations such as Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Romania.23

The collapse of the Soviet Union also signified the formation of fifteen independent Post-Soviet States, located on the southern and western borders of modern-day Russia. With the exception of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia,

16 http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/cold-war-history 17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_atomic_bomb_project 18 http://www.atomcentral.com/the-cold-war.aspx 19 Ibid. 20 http://www.coldwar.org/articles/80s/glasnostandperestroika.asp 21 http://www.belfercenter.org/publication/gorbachev-and-end-cold-war 22 https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tadeusz-Mazowiecki 23 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/fall-of-communism

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most Post-Soviet States have been struggling to maintain political freedom and healthy democracies.24 In addition, separatist conflicts have been at the forefront of many of these nations’ concerns; for instance, Abkhazia, with the assistance of Russian troops, declared independence from Georgia after a war in 2008.25 In general, it can be said that most Post-Soviet States have experienced a substantial amount of internal political turmoil since the fall of the Soviet Union. It is crucial to remember this when analyzing the current state of affairs in these nations.

Past UN/International Involvement

The existing discord within Post-Soviet States such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Albania has materialized into a number of violent conflicts in recent years, naturally causing the issue of security in Post-Soviet States to be a major concern for the United Nations. As with any major international conflict, the United Nations has responded to previous disputes in the region in several ways.

Possibly the most tangible of the United Nations’ work in Post-Soviet States is the efforts by the UN offices in individual nations. These offices assist with economic development, social protection, environmental preservation, and other facets of the countries’ development and policies. These offices have also contributed to post-war relief situations; for instance, the United Nations in Ukraine has supported Ukraine by providing humanitarian aid, assisting with government reform, and contributing to general rehabilitation in the region.26

United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia Arguably the nation that has experienced the most tumultuous history of all the Post-Soviet States, the Republic of Georgia has undergone multiple wars since its creation. In order to institute a successful peace process in the area, the Security Council’s Resolution 858, established the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) in 1993 to verify compliance with the ceasefire agreement.27 The mandate of the UNOMIG was later expanded as violence continued, but the program eventually came to an end in 2009 due to a lack of consensus among Security Council members on a mandate extension.28

North Atlantic Treaty Organization Considering that Russia has made its expansionist desires apparent through its recent violent involvement in countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, one of the more pertinent areas of concern for NATO at the moment is the Baltic States, where citizens and their respective governments fear a potential Russian invasion. The apprehension present in the Baltic States is justified, taking into account the violent conflict that occurred in Crimea only 3 years ago, along with the fact that there have recently been “signs of an intensifying Moscow-led information campaign” in Lithuania.29 Although NATO claims that seeks a more constructive relationship with Russia, the situation at hand is concerning enough that NATO has deployed a military brigade to the Baltic

24 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/09/-sp-profiles-post-soviet-states 25 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18175030 26 http://www.un.org.ua/en/country-team-in-ukraine 27 http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/unomig/background.html 28 Ibid. 29 http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-propaganda-in-lithuania-attack-on-the-baltics-2017-4

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States and Poland, with each battalion consisting of approximately 1000 soldiers.30 NATO also recently established a brigade in Romania after it became a Russian target for hosting part of a NATO anti-missile shield.31

Current Situation

The status quo in Post-Soviet States is quite layered and messy; ideally, the historical analysis should serve to assist understanding of the current situation. While this is a genuinely multifaceted topic, it can be largely divided into two areas to evaluate and analyze: the conflicts and tensions occurring within Post-Soviet States and the greater power struggle and competition to expand spheres of influence between the Russian Federation and NATO.

Separatist Conflicts and Ethnic Tensions One of the greatest challenges that Post-Soviet States have been combatting ever since their inception is the issue of separatism. Not only was the collapse of the Soviet Union abrupt, but it was also met with strong opposition from those who supported the Soviet system. In fact, a poll conducted by the Levada Center in 2016 showed that a slim majority of Russians would support a revival of the Soviet Union.32 The continued prevalence of Soviet nostalgia, combined with the ethnic tensions that have existed in Eastern Europe for centuries, have caused a substantial amount of hostility between various groups within Post-Soviet States.

As a result of the recent conflicts that have happened in several Post-Soviet States due to separatist movements, terrorist groups, or the Russian military, there currently exist several declared states that are recognized on different levels. Examples include Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, all of which are self-declared states that are not fully recognized by the international community. The issue is that these areas are, for the most part, extremely volatile and unstable regions without a sustainable governing mechanism. The existence of these states not only heightens any political and military tensions in neighbouring nations, but also poses as a significant security threat. For instance, the Donetsk People’s Republic, while it receives humanitarian and military backing from Russia, is designated as a terrorist organization by the Ukrainian government.33 As such, the ambiguous status of these groups is another complication that must be addressed.

In addition to solving the issue of frozen conflict zones (an area in which armed conflict is absent, but no peace treaty or framework has resolved the conflict) in Eastern Europe, the international community must also be wary of existing ethnic hostilities in the region that have the potential to develop into legitimate threats. In fact, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was able to occur because of the division between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea.34 Ethnic tensions in Post-Soviet States are highly sensitive and pertinent facets of this topic that cannot be ignored.

Power Struggle in Eastern Europe Potentially the most dangerous development in Post-Soviet States is NATO’s military response to the actions of the Russian government and military. Many Eastern European nations are caught in an awkward limbo, with

30 https://euobserver.com/foreign/135681 31 Ibid. 32 https://www.rbth.com/politics_and_society/2016/11/04/why-more-than-half-of-russians-miss-the-soviet-union_643655 33 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26387353 34 Ibid.

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Russia to the East and a plethora of liberal democracies to the West. Ever since the Post-Soviet States gained independence only a few decades ago, the general trend for most of these nations has been towards more democratic governments. This trend is most evident in the free and liberal democracies in the Baltics. On the other hand, it is impossible to ignore the influence that Russia has had on many of these nations; countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Armenia are not only close allies of, but also are economically dependent on Russia.35

It is important to note that it is in Russia’s best interests to have influence over its neighbouring states. This is why Russia backs certain separatist groups that promote Russian nationalism. This is also the reason why groups such as NATO are now taking active stances against Russian efforts to expand its influence further west. While the ‘Western bloc’ has not seriously intervened with most of the conflicts that have transpired in Post-Soviet States since the Cold War, a potential Russian invasion of some of the more democratic Eastern European nations, such as Latvia or Lithuania, could trigger a particularly dangerous conflict. Thus, it is absolutely imperative to create a sustainable framework of governance in Post-Soviet States to avoid future discord and to ensure security and sovereignty in Post-Soviet States.

Possible Solutions and Controversies

Economic Assistance Since their independence, most Post-Soviet States have been affected by corruption and dictatorial administrations, not to mention wars, protests, and revolutions that have thrown their respective political realities into tumult. One of the primary causes of such political hardship is the economic struggle of the vast majority of these nations. With some exceptions, Post-Soviet States haven’t fared very well in terms of developing their economies. Nations such as Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are characterized by high rates of poverty and unemployment.36 In order to sustain themselves, many citizens are forced to find work in Russia, which then benefits from a high number of migrant workers. Assisting economic growth so that these nations can establish economic independence and stability may be the first step in reaching political independence and stability. The challenge with this solution is finding a method to effectively foster long-term economic growth, as opposed to directly injecting money into the nation, which would only be a temporary solution.

Pursuing Political Reform The majority of Post-Soviet States are run by corrupt administrations; mitigating this through an international treaty or agreement, or even sanctions, would open up opportunities for greater and more efficient international cooperation and transparency. Increasing political freedom in Post-Soviet States would also serve as a long-term solution for many of their domestic political issues. However, political reform would be difficult to achieve without infringing on sovereignty, and the democratization of more Post-Soviet States would most likely agitate Russia and cause more friction.

Appeasing Hostility between NATO and Russia Currently, NATO troops are positioned very close to Russian borders, while Russia is looking to expand its influence into Eastern Europe. This kind of military tension is unsustainable, and thus negotiation and compromise are required to placate the current situation. This may include withdrawing NATO forces from

35 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/09/-sp-profiles-post-soviet-states 36 Ibid.

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their current positions in Poland and the Baltics, or encouraging Russia to cease its military activity or halt its support for militant groups or self-declared states around Eastern Europe.

Bloc Positions

Russian Federation and Allies The primary objective of this bloc is for Russia to gain more influence in Post-Soviet States. Russia wishes to push back on Western intervention in Eastern Europe, and continue to consolidate and expand its power in the area. Specifically, democratization of Post-Soviet States is something Russia wishes to avoid. Furthermore, Russia has demonstrated that it is willing to take relatively aggressive measures to achieve its goals. The worst case scenario for this bloc would be for the United States and NATO to establish their values in even more Post-Soviet States.

NATO and Allied States These states are greatly concerned by Russia’s aggressive actions and apparent expansionist foreign policy. The primary objective of these countries is to dissolve any potential conflicts in Post-Soviet Europe without Russia increasing its political influence in the region. Thus, strategic negotiation and willingness to compromise are critical for this bloc. In addition, these nations should seek to find ways to achieve long-term economic and political development in Post-Soviet States. For the Western bloc, the ideal resolution would include some kind of impetus or incentive for democratization.

Post-Soviet States These countries are in the centre of the current conflict. Although the specific foreign policies of these nations may very well differ greatly, the most important objective of all is to maintain security and sovereignty. Therefore, these nations must be active in making sure that negotiations are conducted smoothly. Furthermore, these nations wish to minimize any foreign military intervention or peacekeeping missions in their countries unless absolutely necessary.

Discussion Questions

1. Is it necessary for NATO to maintain a military presence in Post-Soviet States?

2. What would be the most effective way to resolve ethnic conflicts within Post-Soviet States?

3. Given the unique history and geography of Post-Soviet States, how can these nations achieve greater independence and autonomy?

4. Is it worthwhile to attempt to stimulate economic growth in struggling Post-Soviet States?

5. How can the committee maintain peace and security in Post-Soviet States when Russia has such a seemingly radical foreign policy?

6. What are some ways for both sides to compromise, given the current circumstances?

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Tadeusz Mazowiecki. (n.d.). Retrieved August 01, 2017, from https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tadeusz-Mazowiecki

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The Truman Doctrine, 1947. (n.d.). Retrieved August 01, 2017, from https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/truman-doctrine

Thousands of Nato soldiers go to Baltic states, Romania. (n.d.). Retrieved July 30, 2017, from https://euobserver.com/foreign/135681

UNOMIG: United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia - Background. (n.d.). Retrieved August 04, 2017, from http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/unomig/background.html

Vietnam WAr. (n.d.). Retrieved August 02, 2017, from http://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war

Woody, C. (2017, April 03). Baltic states think Russia is laying the groundwork for looming 'kinetic operations'. Retrieved August 04, 2017, from http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-propaganda-in-lithuania-attack-on-the-baltics-2017-4

Yegorov, O. (2016, November 04). Why more than half of Russians miss the Soviet Union. Retrieved August 04, 2017, from https://www.rbth.com/politics_and_society/2016/11/04/why-more-than-half-of-russians-miss-the-soviet-union_643655

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Preventing the Weaponization of Space

Overview

As limited as mankind’s understanding of outer space is, it is also growing at an unprecedented rate. While the rapid technological developments that are allowing scientists to explore further into the cosmos have many positive implications, they also muddle many of the existing international agreements and laws regarding outer space; in other words, the international community must be mindful of, and consider renewing, the current framework regarding space security.

What makes outer space a particularly complex issue to deal with is that nobody truly understands the full extent of it and nations cannot claim sovereignty over or occupy parts of space. Although the international community has established a number of regulations and guidelines preventing the utilization of weapons in space, the weakness of these policies lies in the fact that they lag behind scientific progress. As such, it is imperative that the world address the drawbacks of status quo policies.

This topic is a highly pertinent issue that ties in seamlessly with many of today’s relevant issues, including space exploration, global security, international policy, and the potential drawbacks of technological development. Delegates will be able to engage with a topic that has serious and tangible implications for international security: an arms race in outer space may not be out of reach if the issue is not dealt with properly. Finally, it is important to note that this topic is one that requires a high level of cooperation and communication between delegates in order to come up with the most effective resolution.

Timeline

June 5, 1927 — The Verein für Raumschiffart (Vfr, Society for Space Travel) is founded.37

October 3, 1942 — Germany conducts its first successful V-2 rocket test; the V-2 rocket was the world’s first long-range guided ballistic missile.38

October 4, 1957 — The Soviet Union successfully launches Sputnik I, the world’s first artificial satellite.39

January 31, 1958 — The United States successfully launches Explorer I, America’s first artificial satellite.40

July 29, 1958 — The United States Congress passes the National Aeronautics and Space Act, creating the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).41

December 13, 1958 — The General Assembly establishes the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.42

37 http://pioneersofflight.si.edu/content/verein-f%C3%BCr-raumschiffahrt-vfr-society-space-travel 38 http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-conducts-first-successful-v-2-rocket-test 39 https://history.nasa.gov/sputnik/ 40 https://www.space.com/17825-explorer-1.html 41 https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ogc/about/space_act1.html 42 http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/aboutus/history/index.html

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December 12, 1959 — The General Assembly establishes the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) as an ad hoc committee.43

August 5, 1963 — The Partial Test Ban Treaty is signed, prohibiting the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere and outer space.44

January 27, 1967 — The Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America sign the Outer Space Treaty, which effectively made space weapons unlawful.45

January 11, 2007 — China conducts an anti-satellite missile test, destroying a weather-watching satellite that had been orbiting Earth since 1999.46

February 21, 2008 — The United States Navy destroys malfunctioning U.S. spy satellite USA-193.47

Historical Analysis

The first tangible foundations of space exploration were laid in the First World War, during which international military powers had been developing and using solid fuel rockets as weapons. Following the war, at the Treaty of Versailles, Germany was banned from conducting any further solid fuel rocket research. In 1927, the Verein für Raumschiffart (Vfr, Society for Space Travel) was founded in Germany, and in 1930, the group began to experiment with liquid-fuel rockets.48 After several successful developments, several members of the society joined the military to assist with its rocket research, eventually leading to the creation of the infamous V-2 missile in 1942.49 The V-2 missile made its debut on the battlefield in 1944, during a devastating German rocket attack on London.50

Following the end of the Second World War, the bulk of progress regarding space technology can be attributed to the United States and the Soviet Union, both of which spent significant sums of money to establish dominance in outer space. One of the major events that sparked this ‘space race’ was the Soviet Union’s successful launch of Sputnik I, the world’s first artificial satellite.51 The following year, the United States launched a satellite of its own, the Explorer I, and in the 1960s, both nations began to use reconnaissance satellites to monitor each other’s military installations. Although the United Nations had established the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs to ensure the pacific use of space, the ambiguity of the resolution allowed for both sides to continue reconnaissance, which further increased tensions.

The Space Race essentially lasted throughout the rest of the Cold War, and a number of notable developments occurred during that time frame. One of the most important was the introduction of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which was revolutionary due to its ability to strike any target on Earth in a matter of minutes.52

43 http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/index.html 44 http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/nuclear-test-ban-treaty 45 http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html 46 https://www.space.com/3415-china-anti-satellite-test-worrisome-debris-cloud-circles-earth.html 47 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon 48 Supra note 1 49 Ibid. 50 http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140905-the-nazis-space-age-rocket 51 Supra note 3 52 https://www.nps.gov/mimi/learn/historyculture/intercontinental-ballistic-missiles.htm

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Due to the threats posed by the newly developed weapons, the United States launched a series of programs intended to protect the nation from Soviet ICBMs and gain space supremacy, such as the Nike-Zeus Program, Project Defender, the Sentinel Program, the Safeguard Program, and the Strategic Defensive Initiative.53 Likewise, the Soviet Union also made several efforts to outdo the United States; most notably, the R-360RB Fractional Orbital Bombardment System and Polyus orbital weapons system had potential to carry out successful attacks on the United States if not for international treaties that forced the Soviet Union to phase out the weapons.54

In 1991, the Cold War came to a close, signalling the end of the Soviet Union and the space race. However, space research continued to progress at a quick rate, leading to the enhancements of pre-existing space technologies and the introduction of new ones. Specifically, Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and military communication systems have added further layers of complexity to the current state of space militarization. Another crucial post-Cold War development was the increased number of nations getting seriously involved in outer space. In the past couple of decades, countries such as France, Italy, China, India, and Japan have launched military satellites into space, creating a much broader array of international competition for space supremacy compared to the space race that took place during the Cold War.

Past UN/International Involvement

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) were negotiations between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War, aimed at limiting the manufacture and possession of nuclear weapons.55 The two official treaties that resulted from these negotiations were called SALT I and SALT II, signed in 1972 and 1979 respectively.56 The first series of SALT negotiations produced two critical sets of agreements: the Treaty on Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Systems and the interim SALT agreement, both of which were signed by American president Richard Nixon and Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev.57 The ABM treaty placed strict limitations on the number of missile-launching sites and interceptor missiles for both parties, while the interim SALT agreement served to freeze the number of strategic ballistic missile launchers on both sides for five years in order to provide time for further negotiations.58

The second round of SALT negotiations opened in late 1972 and lasted for the next seven years, with the SALT II treaty signed in Vienna on June 17th, 1979. The treaty restricted the quantity of and placed a variety of other limitations on both nations’ nuclear forces.59 However, the U.S. Senate never ended up ratifying the treaty after President Carter removed it from consideration due to the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan on December 25th, 1979.60

53 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militarisation_of_space 54 Ibid. 55 https://www.britannica.com/event/Strategic-Arms-Limitation-Talks 56 Ibid. 57 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/salt 58 https://www.state.gov/t/isn/4795.htm 59 Ibid. 60 http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/carter-and-brezhnev-sign-the-salt-ii-treaty

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Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) The Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT), signed in 1963 by the governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, prohibited all test-detonations of nuclear weapons except for those occurring underground.61 Thus, the PTBT effectively banned nuclear weapon tests in outer space, and was seen by many as an attempt to slow the ongoing nuclear arms race. Since 1963, 123 other states have signed this treaty, essentially making the PTBT part of the international standard regarding space weaponization.62

Outer Space Treaty The Outer Space Treaty, after originally being considered by the Legal subcommittee of the United Nations in 1966, was opened for signature by the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union in January of 1967, and entered into force in October of the same year.63 The 1967 Outer Space Treaty is still highly relevant to the space weaponization because it outlines the basic framework on international space law. The following is a brief summary of some of the key principles addressed in the treaty: the exploration and use of space shall be carried out for the mutual benefit of all countries, space is free for exploration and use by all states and should not be subject to national claims of sovereignty, and states cannot place weapons of mass destruction in outer space.64 It is also important to note that the Outer Space Treaty does not necessarily deter the weaponization of space, as it only prohibits weapons of mass destruction in orbit, and not any other kind of weapon. As such, while the Outer Space Treaty can be used as a useful reference point when researching international space laws and regulations, it is not to be seen as a direct deterrence to space weaponization.

Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) The General Assembly of the United Nations established the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 1959 to “govern the exploration and use of space for the benefit of all humanity.”65 The work that the COPUOS undertakes includes “reviewing international cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space, studying space-related activities that could be undertaken by the United Nations, encouraging space research programmes, and studying legal problems arising from the exploration of outer space.”66 The COPUOS operates with two subsidiary bodies, the Scientific and Technological Subcommittee and Legal Subcommittee, both of which were established in 1961.67 The workings of the COPUOS could be helpful for research into the United Nations’ stance and actions regarding space weaponization.

Current Situation

Outer space has now been militarized for decades, and many of the world’s stronger militaries now regularly use space technologies, such as satellites, for communication, surveillance, and a variety of other intelligence purposes. The international community has now focused its attention on preventing the weaponization of space, which refers to the deployment of weapons in outer space with the intention of attacking space or ground targets,

61 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Nuclear_Test_Ban_Treaty 62 Ibid. 63 Supra note 45 64 Ibid. 65 Supra note 43 66 Ibid. 67 Ibid.

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or terrestrial weapons intended to attack space targets.68 This section will describe some of the relevant space technologies and weapons that shape the status quo, along with the related actions of several key nations.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) First introduced in the 1950s, the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) now plays a pivotal role in the s. The ICBM, primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery, is particularly pertinent because of its ability to be launched from and directed at either Earth or space; furthermore, recent enhancements of the ICBM have enabled it to strike its targets with increasing precision and speed.69 Therefore, the ICBM is capable of destroying any satellite currently in orbit. In addition, there is no existing technology in the world that can effectively stop ICBM attacks yet, making the weapon a serious threat.70 Nations in possession of ICBMs include Russia, India, the United States, China, France and Israel, as well as North Korea, which successfully launched its first ICBM in the summer of 2017 after years of failure. ICBMs, especially when in the possession of politically unstable nations such as North Korea, can be legitimate security threats, and thus efforts should be made to limit these weapons, much like what the SALT I treaty aimed to do.

Military Satellites Military satellites are essentially the foundation of most space-related military activities, and are also usually at the center of discussion regarding space weaponization. These satellites have a variety of uses, including reconnaissance, navigation, communication, and early warning of aerial attacks. Military satellites were fundamental for the militarization of space, and could very well also be the impetus for the weaponization of space. This is because satellites are at the core of military intelligence and communication, and therefore, in the event of a space war, they would arguably be the most valuable tool. In addition, satellites can also be weaponized, and with further scientific progress, a war between satellites may be possible. For these reasons, it is imperative that regulations regarding military satellites be revisited and renewed.

Another key facet of space weaponization is the military exploitation of Global Positioning Systems (GPS), which are satellite navigation systems that can determine three-dimensional positions and provide nanosecond precise time anywhere on Earth.71 The GPS system was designed and is now controlled by the United States, meaning that the U.S. has the ability to direct highly effective bombing raids through the use of GPS. Russia, China, and India, and the European Union now also have their own similar satellite navigation systems.

Anti Satellite Weapons (ASAT) Anti Satellite Weapons (ASATs) are space weapons designed specifically to attack and destroy satellites, and thus are especially significant in the status quo, in which military satellites are so crucial to any kind of military activity relating to space. In the last decade, the United States, China, and the Russian Federation have all conducted ASAT tests, inciting concerning levels of tension between these global superpowers.72 Specifically, U.S. - China relations are at risk of being soured, since the current American narrative regarding China’s ASAT tests is that China is planning for space warfare.73

68 https://medium.com/law-and-policy/space-law-revisited-the-militarization-of-outer-space-d65df7359515 69 http://www.businessinsider.com/intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-science-2017-7 70 Ibid. 71 https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/scan/communications/policy/GPS.html 72 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/war-in-space-may-be-closer-than-ever/ 73 http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/how-china-is-weaponizing-outer-space/

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The risks of ASATs actually being used are serious; the worst-case scenario would be an unintended nuclear exchange, an outcome that all countries should be trying to avoid.74 Effective communication between involved parties is integral to dissolving the current tensions around ASAT tests so that these tensions do not result in military conflict.

Possible Solutions and Controversies

Compromise regarding national space arsenals or defense systems will play a crucial part in negotiations, which means that delegates should ideally try to identify their policies and priorities during their research.

Revising International Regulations While previous international agreements have been fairly effective in establishing a solid framework for space exploration and use, some also have certain loopholes and flaws that can be exploited. In addition, many of these treaties were signed during the Cold War, and space technologies have progressed significantly since then. For instance, when China destroyed one of its weather satellites in 2007 with an Anti-Satellite Weapon, it was deemed that the missiles did not come under the definition of “weapons of mass destruction”, and thus did not violate the Outer Space Treaty.75 Efforts to exploit the current regulations and arguments over definitions and terms will only increase in the future; therefore, a viable starting solution would be to review and look to revise the outdated or ineffective regulations that are currently in place.

Confidence-Building Measures The first step in establishing peace in outer space is increasing transparency between nations. When countries conduct weapons test, or launch objects into space without notifying the rest of the world beforehand, misunderstandings and hostility are bound to follow. Currently, the United Nations Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space keeps track of satellites, probes, landers, and other spacecraft being launched into Earth’s orbit.76 A potential solution could be to demand more specific information from countries regarding space launches, to maximize the effectiveness of the current system. This method, if carried out successfully, would establish a more transparent and safe environment for countries to operate in space.

Defining Key Terms One of the most common controversies regarding international space law has been the ambiguous definition of terms such as “pacific use” and even “outer space”. To mitigate this problem, the committee could explore the option of redefining some of these terms to have clearer boundaries and be more applicable to the present day.

Bloc Positions

The United States of America Ever since the invention of modern space technology, the United States has been the most successful and progressive nation in this field. Currently, the United States possesses more military satellites and space arms than any other nation in the world. However, the gap is closing quickly as countries such as China, Russia, and India progress in the development and research of their space technologies. Thus, the United States is wary of

74 http://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/the-united-states-china-and-anti-satellite-weapons 75 https://thewire.in/104087/outer-space-treaty-fit-for-modern-age/ 76 http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/spaceobjectregister/index.html

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these nations advancing to the point at which the U.S. space program is no longer clearly the best in the world. In addition, the United States does not necessarily look favourably upon further limitations and regulations in terms of developing, possessing, and using space arms and satellites. In 2015, the United States opposed China and Russia’s proposed treaty to ban arms in outer space.77

China China has seen substantial developments in its space capabilities in the Post-Cold War era, and now possesses advanced technologies such as ICBMs and ASATs. China wishes to continue its progress in its space militarization efforts and develop its programs. Also, one of China’s main goals is to limit the United States’ power and influence in space; the two nations are essentially locked in a de-facto arms race as of now.

Russian Federation Although the Soviet space program essentially became defunct with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is still one of the world’s leaders in space technology. Russia, much like the United States and China, has militarized space, and possesses a substantial space arsenal. As is with China, Russia sees the United States as its main rival and threat, and will be looking to curb American influence in space as well as question controversial American decisions and actions regarding space militarization.

European Union Although the European Union countries generally do not possess space arsenals comparable to those of the United States, they are still active in space and have significant interest and influence in the international decisions made regarding space weaponization. While these nations do recognize the economic and military importance of space militarization, they also advocate for a more refined code of conduct to maintain safety and peace in space. It is also worth noting that these nations are allied with the United States and would support the USA in the case of any disagreements. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany are the nations in this bloc that are the most active in space and have the most substantial space arsenals.

Other Nations with Developed Space Programs In addition to the aforementioned traditional superpowers, there are a number of other nations that have satellite launch capability, substantial space intelligence, and in some cases, nuclear arsenals. These nations include India, Japan, Israel, and Canada. Although these nations have varying foreign policies, they all desire a level of freedom to continue to develop their space programs.

Nations without Space Technologies Most of the developing world currently lacks the space capabilities of the previously mentioned blocs; however, these countries are no less relevant to the topic. These nations are highly concerned about the potential harms of the weaponization of space, and thus would be supportive of tighter regulations or a ban on space weapons and technologies. Preventing an arms race in space is the highest priority for these nations because of the security threats associated with the possibility.

77 http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/2/inside-the-ring-us-opposes-china-russia-space-arms/

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Discussion Questions

1. Does your nation have a space program?

2. Should there be a ban on conventional space armaments?

3. Should individual nations have more freedom to do what they wish in space, or is it an international body’s responsibility to oversee all actions regarding space?

4. Has your nation signed the Outer Space Treaty? Why or why not?

5. In international space law, how should the following terms be defined? ‘Pacific use’, ‘outer space’, ‘weapons of mass destruction’.

6. If a new treaty were to be constructed, which new set of rules or regulations, if any, would your nation seek to include?

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