Dnv Prewiev Maritime

7/31/2019 Dnv Prewiev Maritime

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TO2020 :maritime technology uptake

Mature an e ergi g cono ies i l be m increasingly

dissimilar i t rms f em g aph and de lopment as

the worl o ulati n appr ches .5 illi in total by

0. world t more reso ce e lifestyles

and incre ed po ul tion, d man for r ti e transport

is bound to gr . e worl flee il t e to expand,

but dem wi ary a ng r g o s nd hip types.

As the industr fac r r to offer moresustainabl r ort so u on , s ps with improved

ntal, saf y an u i y performance will

TECHNOLOGY UPT KE:

be needed. T l r m e focus on developing

an m l ntin n i t chnical and operational

utio , i ntion to achieving greater

erf a ce and energy efficiency.


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CONTENTS

The low energy ship 30

Which technological developments in materials

science, drag reduction, and propulsion will contri-

bute towards the development of new low energy

ship concepts needed in 2020?

The green-fuelled ship 32

Environmental regulations and rising bunker oil prices

could make natural gas and biofuel blends viablesolutions. But what about wind and nuclear as possible

energy sources for shipping?

The electric ship 34

Hybrid electric ship concepts, incorporating many types

of renewable energy sources, will be implemented on

specialised ships. Will cold ironing, marine fuel cells, and

high temperature superconductors also take off?

The digital ship 36

E-navigation solutions will be widely used to enhance

safety and to optimise operations with respect tosecurity, economy, and environmental performance. But

which are the key technologies?

The Arctic ship 38

With the prospect of ice-free summers in the Arctic,

ship traffic in that region is set to increase. Which novel

systems and software, not to mention new types of

vessels, will Arctic shipping demand?

The virtual ship 40

Advanced, model-based techniques for assessing

technical and economic performance of a ship from

a lifecycle perspective enable better management of

the complexity and uncertainties related to design.

How can these be achieved?


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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE30 MARITIME

AIR BUBBLE LUBRICATION AIR CAVITY SYSTEMS

Visualisation of an installed air-bubble injection system.Source: DNV

Illustration of the P-MAXair cavity ship by STENA.Source: STENA

AIR BUBBLE LUBRICATIONAlthough the wave-makingresistance of ships can be minimisedby careful hull design, friction dragis more important for large, slowspeed, commercial ships.

Air bubble lubrication systems arebased on the powered injectionof air beneath the ship. Severalsmall holes on the hulls bottomare used for injection of micro airbubbles into the flow stream. Byinterfering with the generation ofvortices, the transition to the highlydissipative turbulent flow regime,

which typically occurs around thehull, is delayed. Friction drag isreduced due to the lower frictionforces associated with laminar flow,compared with turbulent flow.

Uncertainties in the physicalmechanisms, and the scaling andtechnical feasibility of this system,need to be solved by 2020. Inparticular, the potentially negativeinteractions of the dispersedbubbles with the propeller must beeliminated.

AIR CAVITY SYSTEMS

The injection of air beneath aships hull can have an alternativeembodiment, but one that alsoresults in friction drag forces beingdecreased.

In air cavity systems, largeindentations are opened on thehulls bottom. Compressed air ispumped in to fill the void spaceand establish a continuous aircavity. The steel-seawater interfaceis thus replaced by a more slippery

air-seawater interface, effectively

reducing the hulls wetted surfaceand thereby the friction forces. Adecrease in fuel consumption ofaround 10 % is possible. As air willinevitably escape from the cavity, ithas to be continuously replaced.

Negative side-effects include thegeneration of a destabilizing freesurface under the hull. Energy willbe lost, both by the formation ofgravity waves on this free surfaceand by dispersion of bubbles into

the propeller inflow.

INTRODUCTIONThe main triggers for innovation are market forces, technologicaladvances, safety considerations, and regulatory changes. Presently,rising fuel prices, market uncertainties, intense competition,climate change, and societal pressures for greening are driving theintroduction of new technologies and concepts into the world fleettowards 2020. Multifunctional ship types and/or technologicaladvances in drag reduction, propulsion, and materials herald newship concepts. These are not necessarily new ship types, but offerinnovative solutions to newly posed problems in ship design.

Novel technologies and demanding objectives regarding emissions,efficiency, strength, and speed or cargo flexibility, necessitateholistic designs and use of risk-based methods. In order to managethe complexity and risk inherent in new solutions, large-scaledemonstrators are needed, as well as advanced, model-basedtechniques.

the low energy ship

attacking energy lossesHIGH BUNKER COSTS, new market realities, the cross-

industrial focus on the environment, along with stricter

regulations regarding emissions and ballast water,

will result in radical changes in ships. Technological

developments in materials science, drag reduction,

propulsion, and energy efficiency, will provide the

basis for the key specifications of new ship concepts.

The applicability of different, new concepts needs to

be considered for each ship type, based on technical

and economic assessment. New concepts could play

important roles for all vessel types.

10-20%drag reduction is possible

with air injection systemsby 2020.


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HYBRID MATERIALS HYBRID PROPULSORS

Composite sandwich construction made of GLARE-skinsand honeycomb core. Source: NASA

A multi-component Azipod installation.Source: ABB

BALL

ASTW

ATER

FREE

SHIPS

HYBRID

PROPUL

SORS

HYBRID

MATERIALS

AIRCAVITY

SYSTEM

S

AIRBU

BBLE

LUBRICATION

Learning fromthe aviation industry -

hybrid materialswill save weight and energy.

TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE IN EACH SCENARIO

HYBRID MATERIALSReducing the weight of a ships hullcan decrease emissions and savefuel. Lightweight materials are usedin smaller vessels and secondarystructures, e.g. fibre reinforcedplastics, aluminium, and titanium.

Hybrid materials can be formedfrom multiple layers of metal sheetsand piles of polymer compositelaminates. Fibre-metal laminatescombine the qualities of metals(high impact resistance, durability,flexible manufacturing) with thoseof composites (high strength and

stiffness to weight ratio, good

resistance to fatigue and corrosion).The metal layers can be of eitheraluminium or steel plates, whereasthe polymer core can be reinforcedwith carbon or glass fibres. Theapplication of these materialsin the aeronautical industry andin specialised ships provides anopening for introducing thesematerials into shipping. However,widespread adoption by 2020is unlikely. The main obstaclesinclude high costs, manufacturingand recycling challenges, and fireresistance issues.

HYBRID PROPULSORS

The high efficiency of the screwpropeller is restricted to one designspeed, large blades, 2-stroke dieselengines, and direct drive propulsion.

Hybrid propulsion concepts consistof combinations of shaft propellers,pods, and efficiency enhancingdevices, such as pre- and post-swirlfins. Hydrodynamic optimisationcan enable efficient arrangementsof a contra-rotating pod propellerbehind a main controllable pitch

propeller, and of a feathering centre-

line propeller with steerable sidepods. These systems capitaliseon the hydrodynamic advantagesof their components, while alsoextending the range of efficientoperation by utilising the optimumengine load.

Although design and manufacture ofhybrid propulsors are expensive, thistechnology is expected to providefuel savings up to 10 %, dependingon utilisation and ship types, e.g.

container or multipurpose ships.

BALLAST WATER FREE SHIPSBallast water ensures sufficient draft, strength, and stability whenships sail unloaded. However, when ballast water is dischargeduntreated, the marine ecosystem may be threatened with theintroduction of invasive species contained in the ballast water.

A trapezoidal hull with a transversely raked bottom can maintainsufficient stability and draft when unloaded, without requiringballast water. In order to achieve the displacement of standarddesigns, the breadth and length are increased. The bow and sternare now critical for regulating trim under all load states. Such shipsincorporate more steel, both due to their larger size and also toobtain sufficient strength under partial load conditions. Hybrids,with two small ballast tanks to aid the adjustment of trim, seempreferable.

Even after 2020, ships that do not use ballast water will be moreexpensive to build and have various construction challenges.Competing solutions include onboard treatment of ballast waterand in-port receiving facilities.


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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE32

INTRODUCTIONImpending stricter environmental regulations that require thatthe emission levels of SOx, NOx, particulates are reduced, andprobably CO

2also, are pushing the maritime industry towards

using cleaner energy sources. Increases in bunker oil prices willprobably accelerate this transition.

Abatement technologies, such as exhaust gas recirculation,scrubbers, or catalytic reduction, can meet some of theseregulations, but typically CO

2emissions are increased. Alternatively,

LNG, biofuel blends, or more radical energy sources, like windor nuclear, could be exploited. The implementation of thesenew technologies could face significant technical and economicchallenges, and the time frame ranges from a few years for LNG,to decades for nuclear.

Large-scale demonstration projects, as well as model studies, areneeded to evaluate performance, and to ease implementation intothe fleet.

the green-fuelled ship

the beginning of the end of traditional fuelWITH SEA-TRANSPORT facing increasingly strict

environmental regulations, and with rising bunker

oil prices, natural gas, and renewables are being

considered as alternative energy sources. LNG, biofuel

blends, or more radical energy sources like wind or

nuclear, all have the potential to be exploited.

Adoption of LNG fuelling by a considerable share of

ships in short-sea shipping is expected over the next

decade, especially in Emissions Control Areas (ECAs).

NATURAL GASA switch to natural gas couldvirtually eliminate emissions of SOxand particulate matter, and NOxemissions could be reduced by 90 %in gas-fuelled, lean-burn, 4-strokeengines. Such engines are suitablefor cruise ships, smaller cargo andservice ships, and also for auxiliarypower. However, for slow speed,2-stroke engines that are typicalof larger commercial ships, NOxreductions are more modest.

Although natural gas combustioncan reduce CO

2emissions by up to

25 % compared with bunker oil,emissions of unburned methanerepresent a problem. Methane is21 times more potent greenhousegas (GHG) than CO

2. Depending

on engine type, the change in CO2-

equivalent emissions range froma reduction of 20 % up to a netincrease.

Engines fuelled by natural gas arewidely used for power generationand transport on land. One

challenge for shipping is that LNGtanks typically require 2 to 3 timesmore space than a diesel tank.Since natural gas must be storedeither liquefied or compressed,these storage tanks are alsomore expensive. Based on recentexperience, the new-build costof LNG-fuelled ships is about1020 % higher than for equivalentdiesel-fuelled ships.

Although LNG bunkering infra-structure is currently very limited, asignificant increase in the number

of bunkering terminals is expectedby 2020, especially within ECAs.Strict regulations on NOx and SOxemissions, combined with a morecompetitive gas price, will drive theuptake of gas as a marine fuel. It isanticipated that within 10 years aconsiderable share of new ships willhave natural gas fuelling, particularlyin short-sea shipping. It might alsobe expected that, in the comingyears, some ships are retrofitted torun on LNG.

MARITIME

SHIP EMISSIONS FUEL PRICES

It is anticipated that

within 10 yearsa considerable share ofnew ships will have naturalgas fuelling.

Indicative emission reduction potential from the use ofnatural gas in the fleet (Baltic). Source: IEA

Projected natural gas and crude oil prices in US$ (2008) permillion Btu. Source: EIA


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NUCLEAR

BIOFUEL

S

KITE

SNA

TURA

LGAS

KITES NUCLEAR

BIOFUELS

Biofuel is a renewable energy sourcewith the potential of considerabledecrease in lifecycle CO

2emissions.

In operation, SOx and particulatematter emissions are also reduced,while NOx emissions slightlyincrease. In principle, existing dieselengines can run on biofuel blends.The most promising biofuels forships are biodiesel and crude plantoil. Biodiesel is most suitable forreplacing marine distillate, andplant oil is suitable for replacing

residual fuels. There are, however,

various unresolved problems. Theseinclude fuel instability, corrosion,susceptibility to microbial growth,adverse effects on piping andinstrumentation, and poor cold flowproperties. Although these technicalchallenges could be resolved by2020, widespread use of biofuelin shipping will depend on price,other incentives, and availability insufficient volumes. Breakthroughsin production methods and newregulations could have a significant

impact.

Biofuels are

biodegradable- spills into the marineenvironment may haveless impact.

SkySails installation on a cargo ship. Compact nuclear power plant design also useable for maritime propulsion.Source: Hyperion Power


NUCLEARNuclear power plants have no GHG emissions during operationand are especially well suited for ships with slowly varying powerdemands. Although several hundred nuclear-powered navy vesselsexist, few nuclear-powered merchant ships have been built.Commercial nuclear ships would have to run on low enricheduranium. Land-based prototypes offer a compact reactor(comparable to large marine diesel engines), with power outputin the range of 25 MW.Fuel lifetime of around 10+ years at a priceof US$ 2 mil/MW is indicated.

The extensive requirements for testing and qualifying thistechnology suggest that it will not be commercially available forcivilian shipping by 2020. Government involvement could howeveraccelerate the uptake process.

The main barriers to nuclear shipping relate to uncontrolledproliferation of nuclear material, decommissioning and storageof radioactive waste, the significant investment costs and societalacceptance.

KITESKites are smaller installations andprovide a thrust force directly fromthe wind. The system consists ofthe kite, control lines with a controlnode, a Hawser connection to theforecastle, a winch, and the bridgecontrol system.

Commercial kites currently rangefrom 160 to more than 300 m andcan substitute a propulsion powerof up to 2000 kW depending onthe wind conditions and ship'sspeed. They fly at between 100 and420m high, at wind speeds of 3

to 8 Beaufort scale. The automatic

control system actively steers andstabilizes the kite, optimising itsperformance. The relative ease ofkite installation for wind propulsionmay result in ship retrofits within thenext 10 years.

Kite operation entails few additionaltasks for the crew. Conflicts withcargo handling equipment couldarise.


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TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE34

the electric ship

the Prius of the seasBY 2020, a hybrid electric ship could contain diesel-

electric configurations, marine fuel cells, battery

packages, solar panels or retractable wind turbines,

and compact superconducting motors. Introducing the

electric ship concepts can improve the ships overall

efficiency and enable incorporation of many types

of renewable energy sources. The large number of

embedded components will increase system complexity,

and require carefully design, performance monitoring

and power management. Hybrid concepts will be

introduced first into specialised ship segments, such as

offshore supply vessels and ferries.

INTRODUCTIONThe use of hybrid powering systems in marine applications has thepotential to offer more efficient and environmentally friendly shippower plants. These powering systems require design, operation,and control of energy production, and conversion in an integratedmanner. The ship machinery will evolve into a more complexsystem, with a wide range of different energy conversion andstorage sub-systems.

The equipment constellation will depend upon the operationalprofile of each ship, even more than it does today. Supplyvessels and ferries with high fluctuations in power demand arethe most suitable candidates for hybrid powering systems. Theimplementation of these new technologies could face significantchallenges, and model-based assessment techniques are importantfor evaluating both technical and economic performance, and forensuring safe operation.

HYBRID SHIPSPower generation works best whenoperating at a single, definedcondition, and fluctuations in powerdemand or supply reduce efficiency.Switching to electric propulsion andpowering will offer more flexibilityat higher efficiency, as multiplepower sources can be included.

The hybrid electric ship of 2020might contain a mix of conventionaland superconducting motors andgenerators, fuel cells, and batteries.This concept easily integrates powerfrom alternative renewable sources,

e.g. solar panels or retractable windturbines. Performance monitoring,power management, and re-dundancy will be key elements.These concepts will be applied toservice, passenger, and small cargoships by 2020. For large cargo ships,they may only be used in auxiliarypower generation.

The high complexity of such asystem will require maintenancestrategies, control of grid stability,improved space utilisation, andweight minimisation.

MARITIME

HYBRID SHIP MARINE FUEL CELLS

Battery power:

either 400 kW at 1 hror 4MW at 6 min.

Layout of a hybrid engine room. A 20 kW solid oxide fuel cell running on methanol.Source: Wrtsil

MARINE FUEL CELLS

In order to increase efficiency inpower production, alternatives tocombustion have to be considered.

Fuel cells convert chemical energydirectly to electricity, at a theoreticalefficiency of up to 80 % (hydrogen),through a series of electrochemicalreactions. They can be fuelled bynatural gas, bio-gas, methanol,ethanol, diesel, or hydrogen. LNGfuel cells emit up to 50 % less CO

2

per kW than diesel engines. Dueto the establishment of Emissions

Control Areas (ECAs), installation

of LNG fuel cells will be favoured.Currently, a marine fuel cellprototype delivers power in therange of 0.3 MW. Initially, fuel cellswill provide auxiliary power, e.g.hotel loads. Ultimately they willprovide supplementary propulsionpower in hybrid electric ships. Themain barriers against uptake arecost, weight, size, lifetime, and slowresponse to load variations. Duringthe next decade fully commercialmarine fuel cells will becomeavailable.


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BATTERIESThe use of multiple electrical powersources in vessels with frequentload changes, and the requirementto operate at optimum efficiency,requires appropriate power storage.

Batteries are one way to addressnetwork power disturbancesand overall balancing, resultingin smooth and uninterruptedoperation. Batteries can storesurplus energy when available, andprovide supply at peak demands.For instance, battery power cancompensate when fuel cells cannot

fulfil fast load changes. Batterystorage enables dual-fuel generators

to run closer to optimal loads,avoiding fast load changes andadditional ship emissions. In 2020,a battery pack of 0.4 MWh, 4 MWpeak load, could weigh 2-4 tonnesand occupy approximately 1 m.

Limited availability of rare earthmetals, e.g. Li, performancedegradation, and prolongedcharging times are the main barriersagainst widespread adoption.

It is expected that nano-technologymay play an important role achieving

a break-through in battery storage.

HIGH

TEMPERATURE

SUPERC

ONDU

CTORS

COLD

IRONIN

G

MARINEF

UELC

ELLS

HYBRID

SHIPS

Hybrid systems will

require increasedfocus on safety andcompetence for crew.

COLD IRONING HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS

Conceptual layout of ship to shore power connection.Source: Pawanexh Kohli

In 2009, the worlds first 36.5 MW HTS ship propulsionmotor was successfully tested for the US army.

BATTERIES

COLD IRONINGAbout 5 % of the world fleets annual fuel oil is consumed in ports.As ports are often located in highly populated areas, emissionsfrom ships contribute to local environmental and health problems.

By replacing onboard generated electricity with shore electricitysupply, cold ironing, the detrimental health and environmentaleffects from emissions of SO

X, NO

Xand particles are reduced.

Furthermore, CO2

emissions might also be decreased, dependingon the availability of cleaner onshore power plants. Towards 2020,a standardised plug-in-connection, for use between ships and theshore electrical grid, will become available, both for existing shipsand for new-builds. This connection will convert electricity to theappropriate voltage and frequency for the ship.

The main challenge will be availability of sufficient grid capacity in

larger ports and the lack of infrastructure in smaller ones.

HIGH-TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS

Electrical resistance results in energylosses from components such asgenerators, motors, transformers,and transmission lines.

High-temperature superconductors(HTS) have zero electrical resistance(at -160 C) and could enablesignificant reductions in the size ofmotors and generators as HTS wiresallow 150 times more current thansimilar-sized copper wires. Storage

of energy in HTS coils is anotherapplication. However, using thesematerials requires cryogenic cooling,by, for example, liquid nitrogen,and special thermal shielding; themain risk is failure of cryogeniccooling, resulting in loss of superconductivity. Redundancy will be amajor issue in designing ships thatuse HTS technology.



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the digital ship

navigation made easyE-NAVIGATION TECHNOLOGIES are being adopted by

the front runners in shipping, and by 2020 the majority

of the fleet will have followed. They combine accurate

position data, weather and surveillance data, onboard

and remote sensor data, ship specific characteristics,

and response models. E-Navigation technologies could

prevent accidents and optimise secure, economic, and

environmental performance. Onboard electronic charts

will become the unifying platform on the digital ship,

integrating and visualising information from other

applications related to areas such as security and

navigation risks, port entry, and weather routing.

INTRODUCTIONFrom a ship perspective, e-Navigation refers to the ability toaccess, integrate, process, and present locally and remotelyacquired maritime information onboard, and to transmit keysensor information to shore or to other ships. Key technologiesrelate to navigation (e.g. electronic charts, radar, sonar), conditionmonitoring (e.g. hull stress sensors), vessel tracking (e.g. AIS, LRIT),satellite imagery and communications, and computer software. Insum, these elements provide decision support to, for example, theship master.

While some e-Navigation technologies are presently in use by frontrunners in shipping, by 2020 the majority of the fleet will havefollowed. e-Navigation encompasses all aspects of ship operation;from safe navigation, including avoiding extreme weather events,

to minimising fuel consumption and emissions and reducingmaintenance costs, as well as effective ship-port communicationfor optimised port entry and cargo handling. Harmonised data areprocessed by computer models and presented in an integratedformat useful for decision-making, onboard and onshore. Thus awide range of stakeholders are able to benefit. Most e-Navigationdevelopment is focussed towards onboard applications. However,onshore facilities can provide more computing power and additionalexpertise, which can complement and augment onboard systems.

Such systems can also provide support to decision makers onshore,such as the ship owner or port authorities, who also requiresupport tools, e.g. for effective monitoring of fleets. By 2020,systems based on AIS, LRIT, and other satellite services, will enableglobal monitoring and tracking capabilities. This could serve as abasis for a range of support applications. Full benefits may requirehigh data transmission rates, possibly limiting use in remote areas.

ELECTRONIC CHARTS NAVIGATIONAL CONSOLE

ECDIS integrated into the bridge navigation systems willbecome standard for all larger ships.

Electronic Charts charts will act as a platform for additionalgeographical information sevices.

ECDISShip grounding accidents arerecurring events that causeconsiderable material damages, andeven fatalities and harmful oil spills.

The Electronic Chart Display andInformation System (ECDIS), usingElectronic Navigation Charts (ENC),reduces grounding probability byabout 30 %. New IMO regulationsrequire that ECDIS is implementedthroughout most of the fleet by2020. ECDIS will function as aplatform for other support systems,such as advanced weather routing,

piracy detection, sea ice awareness,and floating objects alerts. ThusECDIS is a key e-Navigationtechnology. However, by couplingto non-navigation systems, itspotential benefits could extend wellbeyond safe navigation, to itemssuch as port scheduling and customsclearance systems. Competencein mastering the new technologywill be essential, and users mustbe conscious of the dangers ofinformation overload and alarmblindness.

ADVANCED WEATHER ROUTING

Traditionally, weather routing hasmainly focussed on safe navigation,avoiding bad weather. However,weather routing could also optimisefuel consumption (about 10 %savings), time of arrival, crew andpassenger comfort, or hull fatigue.The preferred route will be providedby a risk-based approach and willdepend on the selected optimisationobjective, ship characteristics,and variations in wind, waves,and currents. Warning criteria forextreme weather events, including

rogue waves, are needed, and

also consideration of the effects ofclimate change.

Towards 2020, the accuracy andspatial-temporal resolution of met-ocean real-time and forecast datais expected to have improved,along with data collection fromremote and onboard sensors.Response models for sea-keepingand resistance in waves will becustomised to individual ships androutes. This will be achieved byutilizing real-time and historical data

with self-learning algorithms.


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AIS:Automatic Identification System

LRIT:Long Range Identification and Tracking

SHIP-PO

RTSYNC

HRONISA

TION

TECHNO

LOGY

PIRACYDETE

CTION

ANDDETERREN

CE

ADVA

NCED

WEATH

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ROUTING

ECDIS

PIRACY DETECTION AND DETERRENCE SHIP DELAYS

Global number of attempted and committed piracy attacks.Source: IMO

Port congestion in average days of delay.Source: Globalports.co.uk

SHIP-PORT SYNCHRONISATION TECHNOLOGYShipping contracts typically require vessels to steam at utmostdespatch, i.e. at top speed, between ports, regardless ofthe availability of berths at the destination port. This leadsto unnecessarily high fuel consumption and emissions, andcontributes to port congestion, as vessels rush to their destinationonly to have to lie at anchor for days.

By 2020, berth planning algorithms, using satellite tracking andweather routing, will be integrated into ship-port communicationsystems. This will facilitate synchronisation and generate berthingschedules that maximise the terminals throughput at minimaltranshipment cost, while minimising vessels dwelling and fuelconsumption.

As ships tend to be more vulnerable in waiting situations close

to shore, reduced time in port will also enhance ship safety andsecurity.

PIRACY DETECTION AND DETERRENCEHigh insurance premiums reflect thelikelihood of armed robbery, piracy,and terrorism to seafarers and ships.These threats are not expected tosubside over the next decade.

Successful threat mitigation requiresearly detection and effective,remotely-controlled deterrents (e.g.water, sound, electric shock).

Commercial, high performanceradars already have 4 times therange of standard navigationalradars. They can detect dingy-sized

objects over a distance of up to 4 nm

(nautical miles), and this will haveincreased to 10 nm by 2020. Real-time data from radars, sonars, andcameras, together with long-rangesatellite data, will be processed byan onboard warning system. Duringthe next decade, it is expected thatprivate service providers will offerpiracy warnings via satellite, whichare integrated with the onboardsystem.

In response, pirates will try to adapttheir attack strategy.



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ICE LOAD MONITORING

When navigating in ice-coveredwaters, the captain must be ableto judge when the ice load hasreached a level that exceeds thelocal strength of the ships hull.

The ice load monitoring system onthe bridge should indicate whenextreme loading occurs. Ice loadingis continuously measured by acouple of 100s of strain gauges thatare affixed to selected frames in thebow region of the vessel. The signalsmeasured will then be benchmarked

against the known safety limits

of the frames. The safety limitshave been calculated, based onthe vessel-specific, finite-elementmodel. This system relies on correctsensor positioning, calibrationand detection of malfunctioningsensors, and the quality of thebenchmarking.

It is expected that over the nextdecade, such systems will bedeployed on many Arctic vesselsproviding advice on when to slowdown or when to select another

route in order to avoid ship damage.

INTRODUCTIONClimate models predict a significant decrease in Arctic summer icecover over the next ten years. Less ice provides new opportunitiesfor shipping, leading to more intense and rapid development ofArctic-related technologies. Increased demand for seaborne tradein the Arctic will lead to the introduction of larger vessels thatrequire novel icebreaking services.

Many technologies that are commonly used in more temperateareas, such as conventional lifeboats may not work in the Arcticenvironment.

Crews with little experience in Arctic navigation need supportsystems for decision making, and require training to be able tonavigate safely and effectively in Arctic waters. Increased demandfor seaborne trade in the Arctic will lead to the introduction oflarger vessels that require novel icebreaking services.

OBLIQUE ICE BREAKER

Sideways advancing breaks a wider channel than a traditional icebreaker of same size. Source: Arctic Technology Inc.

SHIP SPEED SIMULATION

Variation of the simulated ship speed in floe ice field.Source: ICETRANS

NOVEL ICEBREAKERSThe bow shoulder areas of anescorted vessel that is wider thanthe icebreaker, are exposed tounbroken ice, leading to increasedice resistance.

Wider channels can be broken byicebreakers with an oblique hullform that is especially designed forsideways icebreaking. Sidewaysoperation is achieved by usingseveral 360 rotating azimuthingpropulsors. Such an icebreakerwould operate bow first when

escorting smaller vessels, andsideways for wider vessels. Thisdesign would allow an icebreakerwith a 20 m beam to open achannel up to 40 m wide. Thiswould enable a single icebreaker toescort wider vessels, which to daterequire two traditional icebreakers.Tests indicate that when in obliqueoperation mode, the speed is lessthan half the normal speed. Over thenext decade, this novel icebreakingconcept is expected to be widelyadopted for Arctic operations.

the arctic ship

exploiting new opportunities in the northOVER THE NEXT decade, shrinking amounts of summer

sea ice, along with higher prices of hydrocarbons and

greater exploitation of raw materials, will result in an

increase in Arctic ship traffic. This will lead to faster

development of Arctic-related technologies, such as

ice route optimisation software, hull load monitoring

systems, and introduction of new icebreaking concepts.

Inexperienced crews will be prepared for ice navigation

by using ice training simulators. As conventional

lifeboats or liferafts are not designed for safe

evacuation in Arctic ice conditions, new amphibious

types of evacuation vessels will be brought into service.

The Arctic ocean could be largely

ice free in summerwithin a decade.


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ARCTIC EVACUATION VESSELSConventional lifeboats or liferaftsare not designed for safe evacuationunder Arctic ice conditions.

Ice strengthened and winterizedlifeboats are needed to travel overice formations, like ice ridges, and totransit in open water. By 2020, suchvessels will use the Archimedesscrew concept for movement. Twolarge, screw-like, floating pontoonswill be located along either side

of the vessel. Design challengesinclude the material of the pontoonsand their connections, as they willhave to tolerate high impact loadsat extreme temperatures.

Evacuation vessels on board Arcticships will have to be included in thegeneral winterization of the ship,e.g. protected from icing and withpreheating of their engines.

ICEN

AVIG

ATIONTR

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SIMUL

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ICER

OUTIN

GSOFTW

ARE

ARCTIC

EVACUA

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VESSEL

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NOVELI

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NOVEL EVACUATION VESSELS IN ICE ICE MANOEUVRING SIMULATOR

Evacuation vessels advances in water and on ice using Archimedesscrew for propulsion. Photo: Sveinung Lset.

Maneoeuvring simulator can provide realistic training experience forice navigators. Source: Ship Manouever Simulator in Trondheim

ICE ROUTING SOFTWARE

Ships without icebreaker escortwill have to find their own routesthrough the ice that will keep theirfuel consumption and travel time toa minimum.

By 2020, ice routing software willtake into account information onprevailing ice conditions, basedon satellite images, weatherobservations, ice charts, andweather and ice model forecasts.

Ice conditions, such as level ice,

brash ice channel, floe ice field,

and ice ridge field, will be simulatedstochastically for the area of theroute selected initially. The modelwill then compute the resultingice resistance, speed, and transittime, also taking into account theship characteristics. The navigatorwill set the preferred optimizationcriteria, such as speed, transit time,fuel economy, or emissions, for bestroute selection.

Ice routing may also suggest thesafer routes through ice.

480 container transit voyagesacross the Arctic around 2030?

Source: DNV, Position Paper 04-2010


ICE NAVIGATION TRAINING SIMULATORA growing number of ships in Arctic areas will have navigatorswith little or no ice experience. Effective training methods formastering navigation in ice are needed.

Training simulators offer an environment in which the navigatorcan train for ship operations in varying conditions of simulated ice,darkness, snow, fog, and icing. The ship response to navigatorsactions is computed in real-time, based on the shipice interactionand propulsion models, together with the effects from chosenweather conditions.

The navigators will learn to recognize different ice types and toavoid heavy ice features, such as ice ridges and multi-year ice.Training for specific ship operations, such as station keeping inice or ice management, can be performed in the simulator. The

challenge will be to model ship behaviour realistically for alldifferent types of ice conditions.


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INTEGRATED SHIP DESIGN TOOLSThe complexity of future designsand the risks involved will acceleratethe adoption of advanced modellingmethods and tools, thereby enablingthe development and assessment ofnew hull designs, propulsors, andmachinery systems. This designapproach will be based on versatilesoftware environments, includingmulti-objective optimisation algo-rithms.

Mathematical methods, objectives,constraints, and analysis suiteswill be entirely controlled by the

designer on a case-specific basis.The calculations involved willutilise module-based tools for eachsubsystem of the ship, e.g. for themachinery components or the hullshape. The different modules willbe linked through an integrateddesign platform. In order to ensuretimely evaluations, the software willdevise multi-scale, multi-physics,and multi-resolution models of thepertinent physics.

The definition of performance will bemulti-dimensional. The integrateddesign tools in place by 2020 willsupport the distributed, parallelised,

and coordinated execution of thevarious design tasks by takingfull advantage of multi-processorarchitectures and the internetinfrastructure. The uptake in thedesign and optimisation of morecomplex, specialised, and costlyships, such as passenger and servicevessels, will be higher.

The major risks that will befaced in the use of integrateddesign tools towards 2020 willbe their considerable complexityand the need for expert users.

Additional risks, related to softwareintegration, data management,and communication, can also beexpected.

One crucial factor is accessto reliable data on design,performance, and cost of thedifferent technology options. Mostof these data may be collected fromend-user applications, model-basedapproaches, and large-scale testing.Tighter interactions betweenship-owners, yards, componentmanufacturers, and classificationsocieties will be essential.

INTRODUCTIONShip designers always strive to combine different objectives, suchas cargo capacity, optimal speed, fuel efficiency, and safety, whilealso being constrained by rules and regulations. New designsface further challenges from an increasing number of new andupcoming regulations, governing areas such as ballast water, airemissions, and new emission control areas. Volatility in energyprices, business concerns over market uncertainty, and extremeweather conditions all contribute to the complexity of futuredesigns.

Advanced modeling methods are emerging in response to thenew design challenges. In order to manage the complexity andrisk inherent in innovative solutions, there is a drive towardsuse of advanced, model-based techniques for assessing novelconcepts and technologies with respect to technical and economicperformance from a lifecycle perspective.

the virtual ship

new ways of designing shipsMODERN SHIP DESIGN requires careful consideration

of technical uncertainties, market specificities, future

energy prices, existing and upcoming regulations, and

anticipated climate change. These factors pose greater

challenges for handling uncertainty and for managing

risk.

Advanced modelling methods and tools for the

development and assessment of new hull designs,

propulsors, and complex machinery systems are an

enabling technology for addressing these risks.

COST BENEFIT OF ABATEMENT MEASURES MODEL BASED HULL DESIGN

Average marginal abatement cost and CO2

reduction potential for the world fleetin 2030. Baseline: 1.53 bill tons/year. Source: DNV

Coupling of CAD and CFD for ship design.

The right designmay save up to 20% fuel expenses- at zero cost.

Source: DNV, Position Paper 05-2010


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GLOBAL DIVERSITY

GREEN WEALTH

LOCAL FIRST

FUELLED BY CARBON

LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

41

MODEL-BASED HULL DESIGN

Traditional hull design optimisationis usually limited to still-waterconditions, design cargo loads,and design speed conditions. Thisapproach can result in ships beingbuilt that have poor performanceunder off-design conditions.

In 2020, hull design tools willseamlessly integrate computer-aidedengineering components, i.e. CAD,CFD, & FEM, with multi-objectiveoptimisation. The definition ofperformance will be generalised

to include resistance, efficiency,

sea-keeping, manoeuverability,strength, etc. The inclusion of dragreducing or propulsive efficiencyenhancing devices increases theneed for computational tools ofhigh predictive power. In 2020,ships will be designed with realisticoperation profiles to produce robusthulls that perform adequately undera wide range of external conditions.

The major challenge is to implementthese tools in a way that is bothflexible and computationally

efficient.

LARG

E-SCALE

DEM

ONSTRATO

RS

MODEL

-BASED

HULL

DESIGN

MODEL

-BASED

MACHINERY

DESIGN

INTE

GRATED

SHIP

DESIGNTO

OLS

VIRTUAL ENGINE ROOM LARGE SCALE DEMONSTRATORS

Model based ship machinery design. Ongoing large scale demonstration for marine fuel cells (Viking Lady).


LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATORSIn order to remain abreast of the complexities and risks in shippingin 2020, a faster and safer path from idea creation to the actuallaunch of novel products is required. The use of advancedmodelling tools will be the first step. To gain confidence and bringinnovative technologies forwards to commercialisation, laboratorytests and large-scale demonstration projects are necessary.

Showcase projects have the ability to validate theoretical models,identify and address safety challenges, qualify technologies, andeliminate perception biases. Modelling tools and experimentalprojects will complement each other by defining the specificationsfor testing and scale-up with greater accuracy. Large-scaledemonstrators can only be established jointly, between developingorganisations and end-user shipping companies.

Sharing the investment and risks among the major stakeholderswill accelerate innovation and technology adoption.

MODEL-BASED SHIP MACHINERY DESIGNEmerging powering systems, likefuel cell, batteries, and renewableauxiliary sources, will result in morecomplex configurations. Traditionaldesigns focus on improvingefficiency via the optimisation ofindividual components.

With todays maturity of equipmenttechnology, new approaches willneed to be adopted that considermachinery and energy conversionfrom an integrated systemsperspective.

By 2020, modular computer toolswill be available to model, simulate,and optimise the operation ofmachinery systems under realisticoperational profiles. By building asystem from libraries of equipmentmodels, the same tools will beused to perform optimal design,condition monitoring, andperformance optimisation, as wellas safety and reliability analyses. Thelack of experts and data reliabilityare the major risks that these toolswill face towards 2020.

CAD: Computer Aided DesignCFD: Computational Fluid DynamicsFEM: Finite Element Method


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TECHNOLOGY UPT KE:

il, gas, and coal will co tinue t d minate the energy

mix, coverin 79 % o f lobal e er y supply by 2020.

lobal ener co sumpt n ncre se by 19 % over the

n , dri en prim ril b on OECD countries.

N nologi s ll e f re be concentrated on

improvin ef cien an r u in environmental impact,

in relation bo to ra o an to power generation.

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