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东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
2012 11 7
1
2
2008 2009
15-64
2010
20 90
21 10
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
(%) 15-64 (%) 15-64 ( )
1990 21.06 66.74 7.63
2010 11.90 74.47 9.99
2011 11.93 74.43 10.03
2012(E) 12.00 74.40 10.07
2013(E) 11.95 74.35 10.11
2015(E) 11.80 74.00 10.16
S1480510120016
010-66554042
010-66554044
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p1
东兴
证券
P2
DONGXING SECURITIES
1 ..................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 1 .............................................................................................................................. 4
1.2 ...................................................................................................................... 4
2 ............................................................................................................................. 9
2.1 .............................................................................................. 9
2.2 2012 GDP ............................................................................................ 10
3 ........................................................................................................................... 13
3.1 ................................................................................................................ 13
3.2 ................................................................................................................ 14
4 ........................................................................................................................... 16
4.1 ................................................................................................................ 16
4.2 ................................................................................................................ 18
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p2
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P3
1 CPI ................................................................................................................................................................. 6
2 ......................................................................................................................................... 9
3 % ....................................................................................................................................... 12
4 / .................................................................................. 17
5 / .................................................................................. 17
6 ....................................................................................................................... 20
1 1 ........................................................................................ 4
2 1979 .......................................................................................... 5
3 1968 .......................................................................................... 5
4 1993-1994 ............................................................................................................. 6
5 2004 ................................................................................................................................... 7
6 ................................................................................................................................. 8
7 ,% ...................................................................................................................................... 10
8 ( ) ,% ............................................................................................................................................... 10
9 ( / / / ) ,% ................................................................................................................ 11
10 / / ,% ...................................................................................................................... 11
11 ,% ............................................................................................................................................ 11
12 % ............................................................................................................................................. 11
13 2012-2015 15-64 % ................................................................................................................. 13
14 2012-2015 15-64 % ................................................................................................................. 13
15 - ................................................................................................................................... 14
16 2010/11 % ................................................................................................................. 14
17 ............................................................................................................................................. 15
18 ............................................................................................................................................. 15
19 ............................................................................................................................................. 15
20 ,% ............................................................................................................................ 15
21 ................................................................................................................. 16
% .................................................................................................................................. 16
% .................................................................................................................................. 16
24 ......................................................................................................................................... 18
25 ......................................................................................................................................... 18
26 ................................................................................................................................. 19
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p3
东兴
证券
P4
DONGXING SECURITIES
1
1 2009
2009 12 11
2010 2010 3 30
1.1 1
1 3 4
1 1
Wind
1.2
1
1
2010 1
1.2.1
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p4
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P5
2 1979
CEIC
1
3 1968
CEIC
/
1993-1994
1996
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p5
东兴
证券
P6
DONGXING SECURITIES
4 1993-1994
M2 2010 2012
1 CPI
CEIC
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p6
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P7
1
1.2.2
2004
2010 5 2004
2004
2004
2004
5 2004
/
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p7
东兴
证券
P8
DONGXING SECURITIES
6
Becker1965
Linder 1970 The Harried Lesiuer Calss
1973 2003
1973-1982 1983
2010
2007 74.3%
71.6% 76% 76.4% 2007
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p8
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P9
2008 3.5 2003-2008
4008 2009
7
1 2
2009 2010
2
2.1
7 18
1
2
2007
188-300
80-120
2
2009 3
2012 10
(Fast Retailing) G.U
20-30% 50%
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p9
东兴
证券
P10
DONGXING SECURITIES
NEC 2006 11 22 NEC
2005 12 9
2.5g
2012 3
2011 4 19
2012 3 229 86 60%
2008 7 31 18 36
7 4
2011 2 22
2012 4 27 B2C
2011 12
2011 12 5
DHL 2011 6 29
100% DHL
2.2 2012 GDP
2008-2012 90000
1001-2000 2008 62.64% 2012
7.34% 2001-4000 29.46% 68.24%
2008 2156 2012 3422
12.64% 2010 26.00%
7 ,% 8 ( ) ,%
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p10
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P11
9 ( / / / ) ,% 10 / / ,%
/ / / / / 2008-2012
2008 1764 2246 2953
2012 3057 3560 4047 14.93%
12.69% 8.41% 2011
26.28% 23.10 / / 2010
16.42%
2008 4913 7448
11.01% 2011 14.95%
11 ,% 12 %
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p11
东兴
证券
P12
DONGXING SECURITIES
2012
2012 GDP
1 2001-4000
4001-6000
2 2008-2012 12.60%
14.93%
3
3 %
2009 2010 2011 2012
-0.85 26.00 12.81 12.61 12.64
( ) 9.54 13.43 26.28 10.45 14.93
( / / / ) -1.84 17.40 23.10 11.74 12.60
/ / -1.58 16.42 11.50 7.28 8.41
9.48 12.79 14.95 6.81 11.01
GDP 8.55 17.78 17.45 9.00 13.19
GDP 9.20 10.40 9.20 8.70 9.38
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p12
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P13
3
3.1
15-64
2010
1 20 80 2012
2012 11.93% 12.00%
80 21 15-64
1990 66.74% 2011 74.43%
2 2012 [15 64] 1997
2012
2011 2012 74.40% 2013 74.35%
1 80 1987
2010 /
2 65
3
13 2012-2015 15-64 % 14 2012-2015 15-64 %
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p13
东兴
证券
P14
DONGXING SECURITIES
3.2
1
2011
21.24% GDP 17.45%
2009-2011 2009 36.75%
37.25%
15 - 16 2010/11 %
2 16-24 1.0
25-34 2009 35-44 2010
45 16-24
3
2009
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p14
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P15
1
2008-2012
2 1999 1998-2010
510.48% /
17 18
19 20 ,%
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p15
东兴
证券
P16
DONGXING SECURITIES
4
4.1
21
% %
1990s 2000s 2010s ?
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p16
东兴
证券
DONGXING SECURITIES
P17
1991-1995 595.59%
515.87%
1998
2001-2005 154.65% 135.08% 143.62%
135
4 /
/
0.1913 0.0121 0.0052 0.0044 0.7871 0.0153
0.8077 0.0496 0.0246 0.0172 0.1008 0.4922
0.4026 0.1369 0.1233 0.0621 0.2752 0.4973
0.7912 0.0474 0.0429 0.0283 0.0903 0.5245
0.6096 0.1019 0.0858 0.0276 0.1752 0.5815
0.8032 0.0540 0.0430 0.0187 0.0811 0.6664
0.7510 0.0660 0.0596 0.0246 0.0988 0.6673
0.7098 0.0848 0.0495 0.0313 0.1246 0.6803
0.7694 0.0784 0.0440 0.0169 0.0913 0.8581
0.7371 0.0855 0.0612 0.0174 0.0988 0.8653
2007 135*135
5 /
/
0.2067 0.1775 0.0845 0.0101 0.5212 0.3404
0.3304 0.0888 0.0357 0.3111 0.2340 0.3793
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p17
东兴
证券
P18
DONGXING SECURITIES
0.5333 0.1072 0.0555 0.0654 0.2386 0.4491
0.1662 0.0906 0.1282 0.4338 0.1812 0.4999
0.4786 0.1728 0.0279 0.0225 0.2982 0.5797
0.6780 0.0984 0.0350 0.0737 0.1148 0.8576
0.5971 0.0930 0.0472 0.1747 0.0882 1.0545
0.4300 0.2869 0.0558 0.0595 0.1676 1.7116
0.6551 0.1755 0.0323 0.0502 0.0870 2.0181
0.5346 0.2765 0.0115 0.0476 0.1297 2.1325
0.6078 0.2102 0.0299 0.0536 0.0984 2.1353
2007 135*135
4.2
(w) (L)
(2005) 2002
1.25 lnw 2.69 2.69 lnw
24 25
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p18
东兴
证券
P22
DONGXING SECURITIES
300
6
15
5 15
-5 +5
5
300
6
5
-5 +5
5
东兴证券版权所有发送给外送报告地址.巨灵:[email protected] p22
