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German Government’s Scenario to Supply 80% of
Power Consumption by Renewable Energy in 2050
Dr. Kurt Rohrig
Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie
und Energiesystemtechnik Systemanalyse und
Technikbewertung
advancing wind energy and energy system technology
Wind energy
Photovoltaics
Bio energy
Electricity grids
Hydro power
Marine energies
Fraunhofer IWES: Institute Profile
Research spectrum:
Wind energy from material development to grid optimization
Energy system technology for all renewables
Foundation: 2009
Personal: approx. 500
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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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W e l t
b e
v ö l k
e r u
n g
[ M
i l l i a
r d e
n ]
W
e l t e
n e
r g i e
b e
d a
r f [
]
1 0 k
W h
1 3
C O
- K
o n
z e n
t r a
t i o
n [
p p
m ]
2
CO
Atmosphere
-Concentration in the
Global Population
Global Energy Demand
Global Growth of Population, Energy Demand, CO2 -Concentration
2
Global Situation and Future Trends
March 2012: 394 ppm
Necessary Reductions
Source: PIK 2007
Challenge of Climate Protection
Business-as-usual
Climate Protection
Transformation of Electricity Sector
Gross Electricity Generation from RES and Consumption in Germany up to 2050
- Szenario 2011 A -
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
Str
om
erze
ugu
ng
ern
euer
bar
e E
ner
gie
n, T
Wh
/a
WasserWindOnshore
WindOffshore
Biomasse,biog. Abfälle
Fotovoltaik Geothermie EuropäischerVerbund
SZEN11/ STR-2030; 7.10.11
103
37
235
490
351
Electricity generation by technology in Scenario 2011 A
Definition of Scenarios 2011 / Scenario analyses
Scenario 2011 A: meeting all objectives of the energy concept of the federal government,
including 25% reduction of energy consumption (based on end-use energy, 2008) ; CO2
reduction by 2050: 80%; share of E-mobility to car traffic by 2050: 50%; breakthrough of
hydrogen vehicles and related infrastructure development.
Scenario 2011 B: as Scenario A, but no breakthrough of hydrogen in transport, but production
and use of synthetic methane in the transport sector and accordingly construction of new
capacity to produce the required additional renewable electricity.
Scenario 2011 C: as Scenario A, but no breakthrough of hydrogen in transport, but full
coverage of the car transport services by electric drives (full electric vehicles and serial hybrids).
Outlook: Scenario 2011 THG95: reaching the upper limit of the target range for the reduction
of greenhouse gases in the energy concept (95%) by 2060. ? Additional use of electricity and
hydrogen as chemical energy storage devices for reconversion and required for full supply of
renewable heat and transport sectors.
2011 Scenario A ': as Scenario A, only a lower power consumption reduction of around 15% by
2050 (final energy consumption, based on 2008)
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 20600
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400
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800
1000
Str
om
erz
eu
gu
ng e
rneu
erb
are
En
erg
ien
, TW
h/a
Szen A
Szen A'
Szen B
Szen C
Szen THG95
SZEN11/ STR-VGL; 24.11.11
Bandwidth of growth of RES electricity production in Scenarios 2011
17%
Full supply by RES in
all Sectors (RES electricity
as „main primary energy “)
41%
IWES-Simulation Tool SimEE
Results: Grid development scenario 2011 A
Germany Deutschland
North Dänemark Nord, Finnland,
Norwegen, Schweden
Dk-W Dänemark West
BeNeLux Belgien, Luxemburg,
Niederlande
Iberia Portugal, Spanien
Alps Schweiz, Österreich,
Liechtenstein
France Frankreich
Italy Italien
East Polen, Tschechische
Republik, Slowakei
UK&IE Großbritannien, Irland
North
Africa
Algerien, Marokko,
Tunesien
2050
HVDC-transport capacity
in Germany: 29 GW
2030
HVDC-transport capacity
in Germany: 9 GW
Effects of RES production – Scenario A 2020
Monat
Leis
tung [
GW
]
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Residuallast
Volllaststunden [h]
Le
istu
ng
[G
W]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Residuallast - Export
Export
Import
Tag/Monat
Le
istu
ng [G
W]
25/09 25/09 26/09 27/09 28/09 29/09 30/09 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Import/Export
Monat
Le
istu
ng
[G
W]
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Residuallast
Volllaststunden [h]
Le
istu
ng
[G
W]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100Residuallast - Export
Export
Import
Tag/Monat
Le
istu
ng [G
W]
25/09 25/09 26/09 27/09 28/09 29/09 30/09 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 Geothermie Holz-/Müll-HKW Wasserkraft Onshore-Wind Offshore-Wind Photovoltaik Last Import/Export
Effects of RES production – Scenario A 2050
Demand side management – Scenario A 2050
Tag/Monat
Le
istu
ng [G
W]
25/09 25/09 26/09 27/09 28/09 29/09 30/09 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen
Volllaststunden [h]L
eis
tun
g [G
W]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80residuale Last
DSM-Haushalt
Klimatisierung
E-Kfz
Wärmepumpen
Demand side management – Scenario C 2050
Tag/Monat
Le
istu
ng [G
W]
25/09 25/09 26/09 27/09 28/09 29/09 30/09 01/10 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
residuale Last DSM-Haushalt Klimatisierung E-Kfz Wärmepumpen
Volllaststunden [h]Le
istu
ng [G
W]
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80residuale Last
DSM-Haushalt
Klimatisierung
E-Kfz
Wärmepumpen
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80000
0.001
Volllaststunden [h]
Hä
ufig
ke
itsd
ich
te
Kernkraft (n = 6)
Braunkohle (n = 22)
Steinkohle (n = 40)
Erdgas GuD (n = 34)
Erdgas GT (n = 39)
PSWTurb
KWK (n = 77)
BHKW
Biogas
Full Load Hours [h]
Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 2020
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80000
0.001
Volllaststunden [h]
Hä
ufig
ke
itsd
ich
te
Braunkohle (n = 22)
Steinkohle (n = 23)
Erdgas GuD (n = 27)
Erdgas GT (n = 43)
PSWTurb
KWK (n = 80)
BHKW
Biogas
Full Load Hours [h]
Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80000
0.001
Volllaststunden [h]
Hä
ufig
ke
itsd
ich
te
Braunkohle (n = 3)
Steinkohle (n = 4)
Erdgas GuD (n = 21)
Erdgas GT (n = 41)
PSWTurb
KWK (n = 43)
BHKW
Biogas
Full Load Hours [h]
Frequency Distribution of Power Plants 2050
Kombikraftwerk 1
Demonstration of load
coverage (1/10000)
Only by RES in
combination with storage
Kombikraftwerk 2
Demonstration of grid stability
supported only by RES
Deutscher
Klimaschutzpreis
2009
- frequency
-volage
-black start
Das Regenerative Kombikraftwerk II
Security of supply – frequency and voltage control
Renewable Model Region Harz
Renewable Power Plant Harz
Generation Controlable
Loads Storage
Device Control
Market Information
North Sea Offshore Grid and Storage Alliance
Roadmap Energiewende System Transformation Power Sector 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Grid Expansion Germany.
Grid Coupling Electricity-Gas
Flexible Generation
Flexible Demand
Pump Storage
Batteries, CAES
Power-to-Gas
Grid Expansion Europe
Research, Development, Demonstration, Monitoring
Grid
s
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
Sto
rag
e
Quelle: IWES, 2011
Thank You for Your Attention !
Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Bremerhaven und Kassel
advancing wind energy and energy system technology
Research Spectrum:
• Wind Energy from Materials to Grid Operation
• Energy Systems Technology for RES
Kurt Rohrig
Deputy Director
