고혁상 / 호주축산공사지사장Charlie Ko | Country Manager – KoreaDecember 2020

호주축산업공급및

글로벌무역현황Australian red meat supply

& global trade update

KOREA TRADE SEMINAR

호주축산업현황 Red meat market update

공급조건및예측 Supply conditions and forecast

소고기수출트렌드 Beef export trends

양고기수출트렌드 Sheepmeat export trends

지난 2년간호주는홍수, 가뭄, 산불…그리고최근광범위한강우량In the last two years Australia has witnessed floods, drought, fire and now widespread rainfall

사육두수재건을향한계절적인개선Improvement in season sparking herd and flock rebuild

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Mill

ion

hea

d

Australian sheep flock

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Mill

ion

hea

d

Australian cattle herd

Source: ABS, MLA forecast

코로나로인한유통망의어려움, 단무역은계속진행중COVID-19 has tested supply chains but trade has continued

소고기생산및수출 Beef production and exports

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

‘00

0 t

on

nes

cw

t

소고기생산

Source: ABS, MLA calculations

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

소고기수출

15%

1%

17%

1%

비육우생산증가세 Feedlots now playing greater role in production

생우수출

/ live Export

목초육가공

/ Grassfed Slaughter

곡물비

육가공/

Grainfed Slaughter

소출하량 Cattle turnoff

(2019-20)

Source: ABS, ALFA, MLA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Mill

ion

hea

d

분기별소도축량 Quarterly cattle slaughter

Grainfed cattle Grassfed cattle Grainfed % share (RHS)

양고기생산및수출 Sheepmeat production and exports

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

e2

02

1f

20

22

f2

02

3f

‘00

0 t

on

nes

cw

t

양고기생산 Sheepmeat production

램/ Lamb 머튼/Mutton

Source: ABS, MLA calculations

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

e2

02

1f

20

22

f2

02

3f

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

양고기수출 Sheepmeat exports

램/Lamb 머튼/Mutton

Red meat market update

Supply conditions and forecast

소고기수출동향 Beef export trends

Sheepmeat export trends

호주소고기수출 Australian beef exports

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

월별소고기수출 Monthly beef exports

2018 2019 2020 -40

-30

-20

-10

-

10

20

30

Jan

20

19

Ap

r 2

01

9

Jul 2

01

9

Oct

20

19

Jan

20

20

Ap

r 2

02

0

Jul 2

02

0

Oct

20

20

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

소고기수출; 연간변화

Beef exports: year-on-year change

Source: DAWE, MLA

주요호주소고기수출국 Major Australian beef exports

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Japan US China Korea Indonesia Taiwan Philippines Canada Vietnam SaudiArabia

Singapore UAE EU Malaysia Other

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

1월-10월수출누계; January-October beef exports

2018 2019 2020

Source: DAWE% reflect 2020 year-on-year change

-9%

-11%

-27%

-17%

-14% -18% -2% -6% -20% +5% -40% -8%

-5%

+68%

-5%

제한적인공급영향에따른수출Impact of tight supply on exports

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

*20

20

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

분류별호주소고기수출 Australian beef

exports by category

곡물/ Grainfed 목초/ Grassfed 가공육/ Manufacturing

Source: DAWE, MLA calculations*2020 is for the 12 months ending October 2020, primals include carcase trade2020년은 10월까지누계로정육기준 (도체포함)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

*20

20

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

분류별호주소고기한국수출 Australian

beef exports to Korea by category

곡물/Grainfed 목초/ Grassfed 가공육/ Manufacturing

forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

‘00

0 톤

수입육 Imported

국내산 Domestic

<출처: 농림부, 한국농촌경제연구원, KITA>

한국쇠고기시장 Korea beef Market

38

35

24

2019 시장점유율 Market share

한우 Hanwoo

미국 US

호주 Aus

뉴질랜드 NZ

기타 others

2

5

6

12

19

28 31

28

2934

37

33

3234

35

36

34

3732

29

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

냉동 냉장

호주산 국내수출 현황 (2020년은 10월누계)AUS beef export to Korea ; chilled/ Frozen, Grass/Grainfed(2020 ending Oct)

<unit: 1000 톤>

C: 23%F: 77%

5

10

8

1124

41 42

32

2734

38

31

3135

44 61

53

5754

47

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

목초 곡물<unit: ‘1000톤>

GR: 63%GF: 37%

<출처: 호주농림부>

국내호주산수입량및호주소고기쿼터량Korean imports and Safeguard of Australian beef

-

50

100

150

200

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

호주산수입량 / Imports of AUS beef 쿼터량/ Australian beef Quota

Source: IHS Markit, MLA *2020 import estimate based of annualised Jan-Oct data2020년은 10월까지누계

코로나영향에도…글로벌육류무역은강세Global meat trade at records levels despite COVID-19

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Mill

ion

to

nn

es s

wt

Year ending June

전체육류수출Exports to all markets*

Poultry Beef Pork Offal Sheepmeat Other

Source: IHS Markit*available IHS Markit export data coverage up to June 2020 includes: Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, EU (external trade and excluding the UK),Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Paraguay, Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, UnitedKingdom, United States and Uruguay. This is not an exhaustive list however it does include all the major global meat exporters.

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Mill

ion

to

nn

es s

wt

Year ending June

중국제외한전체육류수출 Exports to all

markets (excluding China)

Poultry Beef Pork Offal Sheepmeat Other China purchases

5.3%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019YTD*

2020YTD*

Ton

nes

sw

t

Brazil Argentina

Australia Uruguay

New Zealand US

중국소고기수입/ 호주중국수출현황China beef imports(annual, YTD) / Aus Export overview(monthly)

Sources: IHS Markit, China Customs. *YTD Jan-Oct.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Ton

nes

sw

t

Sheep and goat meat (chilled and frozen)

Beef (Chilled)

Beef (Frozen)

아프리카돼지열병으로부터회복세Recovery from African Swine Fever

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Mill

ion

to

nn

es c

we

중국돈육생산 China pork production

How quickly and how much can China’s

pork production recover?

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

중국육류수입으로국내 돈육부족분보충

China meat imports filling domestic pork shortfall

Source: USDA, IHS Markit

코로나로인한소고기수요는….글로벌경제그리고채널별영향 Global economy and channel impact from COVID-19 will weigh in on beef demand

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

World UnitedStates

EuroArea

Japan China India ASEAN MiddleEast &Central

Asia

Year

-on

-yea

r ch

ange

in r

eal G

DP

IMF 글로벌성장예측 global growth forecast

2019 2020e 2021f

Source: IMF, OpenTable (converted to 7-day rolling ave.)

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Year

-on

-yea

r ch

ange

in s

eate

d d

iner

s

외식업현황 Seated diners in foodservice (2020)

Australia Germany Mexico UK US

Red meat market update

Supply conditions and forecast

Beef export trends

양고기수출트렌드 Sheepmeat export trends

호주양고기수출 Australian sheepmeat exports

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

월별램수출 Monthly lamb exports

2018 2019 2020

Source: DAWE, MLA

-

5

10

15

20

25

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

‘00

0 t

on

nes

sw

t

월별머튼수출 Monthly mutton exports

2018 2019 2020

호주양고기주요수출국 Major Australian sheepmeat export markets

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

China US Malaysia UAE Qatar Korea EU Japan Other

주요수출국; 1-10월누계 Top Australian sheepmeat export

markets: January-October

2018 2019 2020

Source: DAWE

Manufacturing

Lamb shoulder

Lamb breast &

flap

Lamb rack

Lamb other

Mutton cuts

한국수출양고기부위별 by

Cuts

-22%

-13% -2%-10%

-25%

+6%

+3%

+13% +20%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

냉동/Frozen 냉장/Chilled

호주양고기(램) 한국수출및국내양고기시장점유율Australia Lamb Export to Korea / Domestic Imported sheepmeat Market share

호주/ AUS 뉴질랜드/NZ

Source: DAFF, MAF / 2020 자료는 10월까지누계, 2020 figure is ending Oct

95%

축산업현황 Red meat market update

공급조건및예측 Supply conditions and forecast

소고기수출트렌드 Beef export trends

양고기수출트렌드 Sheepmeat export trends

국내시장현황 Korea market update

코로나로인한도전과기회, Challenges, Opportunity

호주축산공사주요활동MLA Korea activity case study

양고기최근동향 Lamb recent trends in Korea

도전적과제; 소비환경…Challenges ; Consuming Environments

수입량감소Total Meat Import

Decreasing

외식시장소비지수하락

Food Service Index decline

경제성장률감소Decline GDP

유통업계구조조정

Restructure on Retail

기회; 코로나로인한국내소비시장변화Opportunity ; Domestic Consumption Changes with Covid 19 impacts

환율 Currency

1100

1150

1200

1250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2019년 2020년원/달러추이2019 vs 2020 KWN/USD monthly

2019 2020

Source; 통계청, 하나은행

•올 7월부터달러약세,원화강세

• From July, USD currency getting weaker to KWN.

•현재환율예측은 1050원대까지..• Forecest…down to 1,050 KNW/1 USD

•최근수입가격에도움이되는..• This helps industry on imports..

최근쿼터량소진...이후변화?

Nov-25

Oct-21

Oct-17

Oct-11

Oct-17

Nov-24

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

연도별쿼터소진Yearly Quota consumed date • 올해소진시점; 2020년 11월 24일

Safeguard triggered from 24th Nov 2020

• 12월중순이후고관세 ; 30%, 단1월1일부로새로운관세인하 18.6% From mid of Dec tariff triggered to 30%, but Next year down to 18.6%

• 2021년예상시점? 내년초시작시추가소진물량은?

Any forecast of 2021? Carryover Qty?

Source: KITA, Yes-FTA

국내시장현황 Korea market update

코로나로인한도전과기회, Challenges, Opportunity

호주축산공사주요활동MLA Korea activity case study

양고기최근동향 Lamb recent trends in Korea

안심프로모션 Tenderloin Promotion

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

안심한국수출량

Tenderloin exports to Korea

2019 2020

안심수요시장의새로운채널개발 New Market channel Developed홈쿡의새로운도전 Homecook challenges 수입량일시적인증가 Imports increased

목초육에대한평가개선 Improve of Grassfed consumer perception

안심프로모션 Tenderloin Promotion

구매 행태 변화비대면 시대, 온라인 구매Untact, On-line purchase

호주청정우를 집에서 더욱 쉽고, 다양하고, 즐겁게!

True Aussie Beef, More Accessible, More Diversified, More Enjoyable at Home!

호주청정우 쿡! COOK! 캠페인 Kuk! Cook! Campaign

집밥의 중요성Home-cook Prioity면역력, 건강, 영양

즐거움Enjoyable맛, 다양함

+

호주 청정 대자연의 가치깨끗, 안전, 건강, 품질

Australia Good Nature

2020 언론홍보 활동 Media Release

No. of Press Releases: 21No. of Press Releases pick up: 208No. of Media Articles pick up: 503PR Value: 126억원 (15mil. AUD)

국내시장현황 Korea market update

코로나로인한도전과기회, Challenges, Opportunity

호주축산공사주요행사MLA Korea activity case study

양고기최근동향 Lamb recent trends in Korea

양갈비캠핑트렌드 Lamb Shoulder Rack Camping Trends

양갈비캠핑트렌드(Lamb Rack Search trends)

0

25

50

75

100

20

16

-01

-01

20

16

-04

-01

20

16

-07

-01

20

16

-10

-01

20

17

-01

-01

20

17

-04

-01

20

17

-07

-01

20

17

-10

-01

20

18

-01

-01

20

18

-04

-01

20

18

-07

-01

20

18

-10

-01

20

19

-01

-01

20

19

-04

-01

20

19

-07

-01

20

19

-10

-01

20

20

-01

-01

20

20

-04

-01

20

20

-07

-01

20

20

-10

-01

검색어트렌드 Search

trends

Source : naver Bigdata

양고기행사 Lamb Promotion

국내시장현황 Korea market update

코로나로인한도전과기회, Challenges, Opportunity

호주축산공사주요행사MLA Korea activity case study

양고기최근동향 Lamb recent trends in Korea

감사합니다 Thank You