Presentation of Joaquim Seabrafor the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"Apresentação de Joaquim Bento Ferreira realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle "Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/ 11 e 12 de novembro de 2009 Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5
- 1.
EnergyandGHGemissionbalances:CTBEsproposalJoaquimE.A.SeabraNIPE/[email protected]
November11,2009
2. Agenda Introduc=on/context Objec=ve EthanolLCA:anoverview
CTBEsprogram Summary 3. Agenda Introduc=on/context Objec=ve
EthanolLCA:anoverview CTBEsprogram Summary 4. IntroducGon/context
Shorttermproblemsrelatedtoenergysupply: Oilproduc=onclosetopeak;
NecessitytoreduceGHGemissions; Bioenergyispartofthesolu=on;
Todaysugarcaneethanolcanmi=gatemorethan80%
ofgreenhousegases(GHG)emissionswithrespectto petroleumgasoline;
Forthefuture,improvementsareforeseen,withthe
implementa=onofnewtechnologiesintheethanol produc=onchain;
Weneedpropertoolstoevaluatetechnology
alterna=vesandleadRD&Deortstowardsthe
improvementofethanolsustainability. 5. Agenda Introduc=on/context
Objec=ve EthanolLCA:anoverview CTBEsprogram Summary 6. ObjecGve
Theobjec=veofthisprogramisthecon=nuous
improvementintheevalua=onoftheGHGemissionsin
thesugarcaneethanollifecycleand,consequently,the
sameregardingtheavoidedemissionswithrespectto
thecorrespondinggasolinelifecycle.Bycon=nuous
improvementitismeanttheincreasingaccuracyofthe
analysiswithrespecttotheBraziliancondi=onsof
produc=onandtheexpandingscopeoftheevaluated alterna=ves.
UsetheLCAmethodologytoiden=fythetechnology
op=ons,inthecurrentandprospec=vescenarios,that
couldbenetenvironmentalsustainability(energy
balanceandGHGemissions)ofsugarcaneethanol. 7. Agenda
Introduc=on/context Objec=ve EthanolLCA:anoverview CTBEsprogram
Summary 8. SugarcaneethanolLCA:anoverview MacedoandSeabra(2008):
2006:44mills(~100Mtc/year)ofBrazilianCS
RegiondatafromCTCMutualControl.
2020ElectricityScenario:trashrecovery(40%)
andsurpluspowerproduc=onwithintegrated
commercial,steambasedcycle(CESTsystem).
2020EthanolScenario:trashrecoveryand
ethanolproduc=onfrombiochemicalconversion
ofsurplusbiomassinahypothe=calsystem integratedtothemill. 9.
Scenarios 10. Scope Sugarcaneproduc=onandprocessing,andethanol
distribu=on.
Carbonuxesduetofossilfuelu=liza=oninagriculture,industryandethanoldistribu=on;inalltheprocessinputs;alsoinequipmentandbuildingsproduc=onandmaintenance.
GHGuxesnotrelatedwiththeuseoffossilfuels;mainlyN2Oandmethane:trashburning,N2OsoilemissionsfromNfer=lizerandresidues(includings=llage,ltercake,trash).
GHGemissionsduetolandusechange.
GHGemissionsmi=ga=on:ethanolandsurpluselectricitysubs=tu=onforgasolineorconven=onalelectricity.
11. EnergyowsinethanolproducGon(MJ/tcane) 12.
LifecycleGHGemissions(kgCO2eq/m3anhydrous) 13.
SensiGvityanalysis(2006) 14.
Avoidedemissions(tCO2eq/m3hydrousoranhydrous)Note: substitution
criterion for co-products; no LUC effects 15.
GHGemissionsmiGgaGonwithrespecttogasoline:allocaGonorcoproductscredits
16. Directeectsoflandusechangefor ethanol
19842002:11.8to12.5Mm3/yearnoLUCforethanol. 17.
Directeectsoflandusechange
Caneexpansionsince2002wasoverpasturelands
(mainlyextensive,degradedpastures)andannual crops:
Datasource:satelliteimages(LandsateandCBERS),CONABsurvey(MAPA/DCAA),IBGEdataandpreliminaryIEARIMAdatafornewunits(Nassaretal.,2008;CONAB,2008;ICONE,2008).
Thisfactinaddi=ontocroppingprac=cesinthenew
areas(mechanicalharves=ngofunburnedcane;semi
perennialcrop;highlevelofresidues)indicatesthat
landusechangeoccurswithoutsoilcarbonemissions.
Inmanycases,thelandusechangemayincrease carbonstocks. 18.
DirecteectsoflandusechangeExpansionincludesonlyaverysmallfrac=onoflandswithhighsoilcarbonstocks,
andsomedegradedpasturelands,leadingtoincreasedcarbonstocks. 19.
INDIRECTeectsoflandusechangeIntheBraziliancontext,mostscenarios(basedonInternal
Demandplussomehypothesesforexports)indicateatotal
of~60Mm3ethanolin2020,or36Mm3morethanin
2008.Suchexpansioncorrespondstoarela=velysmall
requirementfornewcaneareas(~5Mha),whichmustbe
consideredcombinedwithprobablereleaseofareasdueto
theprogressiveincreaseofpastureproduc=vi=es.Within
Braziliansoilandclimatelimita=ons,thestrictapplica=on
oftheenvironmentallegisla=onforthenewunits,andthe
rela=velysmallareasneeded,theexpansionofsugarcane
un=l2020isnotexpectedtocontributetoILUCGHG emissions. 20.
Otheranalyses CARB(CA_GREET+GTAP) Database.
Oceantankersbackhaultrip. LUC:46gCO2e/MJ 21. Otheranalyses 22.
Otheranalysis USEPA(FAPRI+GREET) Verycomprehensiveanalysis
Database. Timeframe. Oceantankersbackhaultrip.
Electricitycreditsevalua=on. 23. Otheranalyses 24.
LCAmethodologicalaspects Databasequality; Scopeoftheanalysis;
Coproducts: Alloca=on(mass,energy,marketvalue,other); Subs=tu=on.
LUCandILUC; Bioreneries. 25.
LCAmodels/approachSource:Delucchi(2009) 26.
DefaultssuitabilityMeasuredvs.IPCCEsGmatedN2OEmissions(Corn)Source:Hamield(2009)
27. InuenceofcoproductsSource:Wangetal.(2009) 28.
ToolsforILUCanalysis(?)Source:Babcock(2009) 29. Agenda
Introduc=on/context Objec=ve EthanolLCA:anoverview CTBEsprogram
Summary 30. CTBEsproposalonGHGemissionsanalysis
Databaseconsolida=on: Sugarcaneproduc=onandprocessing;
Advancedtechnologies;
Na=onalparametersforLCAstudies(fer=lizers,electricity,fossilfuels,etc.);
ExperimentalresultsonCH4andN2Oemissionsinsugarcaneproduc=onchain;
AboveandbelowgroundCarbonstocksfordierentcrops(andna=vevegeta=on).
LCAstudiesforfossilfuelsandbiodieselinBrazil;
Workoncurrentmodelstoevaluatelanduse change(e.g.,BLUMICONE); 31.
CTBEsproposalonGHGemissionsanalysis EthanolLCAstudies:
Welltowheelsanalysis;
Focusonenergybalance(fossilvsrenewable)andGHGemissions;
Twoandthreeregressionlevels; UseofGREETmodeldefaultsintheshortterm;
Developmentofdedicatedspreadsheetsforanalyses; Methodologyanalysis:
Coproductscredits; Systemboundaries; LUCandILUCanalysis;
GHGemissionsmi=ga=on. 32. Agenda Introduc=on/context Objec=ve
EthanolLCA:anoverview CTBEsprogram Summary 33. Project
GHGemissionsalongthelifecycleofethanolproducedfrom
sugarcaneandavoidedemissionsregardinggasolineAc=onGHGemissionbalancesshouldbedoneregularlyAims(synthesis)
EnhancementoftheGHGbalances,considering:(a)moreaccurateparametersand(b)changesintheproduc=onprocess(tendenciesandtechnologydisrup=on)CTBEsroleBalancesshouldbedonebyanexpertofCTBEonregularbasisPartnerships
CTBEisopenfordiscussionAtleastoneresearchgroupabroadshouldbepartnerAvailabilityofinforma=on
DatabasisshouldbeorganizedinordertobepubliclyavailableDissemina=on
PapersshouldbepublishedathighleveljournalsAoendanceatconferencesandworkshopsResultstobeachieved
Compileddatabaseon:sugarcaneproduc=onandprocessing;aperoneyearfer=lizersproduc=onanddistribu=on;fossilfuelsproduc=onanddistribu=on(preliminaryresults).Analysisofdierentalloca=onmethodologiesforcoproductsevalua=on,consideringdierentcoproducts(sugar,yeasts,lysine,bagasse,electricity,etc.)EthanolLCAstudiesconsideringtheadop=onofdierentcommercialtechnologiesintheethanolfuelchain(e.g.,coproduc=onofbiodieselandethanol(Barralcoolexperience)).
34. Thankyou [email protected]
