Epi 7010 Intro 2011-2

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    Epidemiology 7010

    Epidemiology 7010Class 1 Part 2

    Fall 2011

    1

    Wednesday, August 17, 2011

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    Todays plan

    History and discussion

    2

    Hippocrates Jenner Graunt Snow Hi!

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    For if one knows all these things well, or at least the

    greater part of them, he cannot miss knowing, when he

    comes into a strange city, either the diseases peculiar tothe place, or the particular nature of common diseases,

    so that he will not be in doubt as to the treatment of

    the diseases, or commit mistakes, as is likely to be the

    case provided one had not previously considered thesematters. And in particular, as the season and the year

    advances, he can tell what epidemic diseases will attack

    the city, either in summer or in winter, and what each

    individual will be in danger of experiencing from the

    change of regimen.

    --Hippocrates. On Airs, Waters, and Places. 400 B.C.E.

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    Edward Jenner 1796

    Jenner was a surgeon, but more importantly,

    he was a good observer.

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    dawgsports.com

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    6Cowpox

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    7Sarah Nelmes handWednesday, August 17, 2011

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    http://blog.ozkizil.com/

    Blossom

    Wednesday, August 17, 2011

    http://blog.ozkizil.com/http://blog.ozkizil.com/
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    Wednesday, August 17, 2011

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    A popular saying among doctors

    during the enlightenment was,

    Dont think, try.

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    From kealyj's photostream,

    downloaded from flickr, 2010

    Jenners

    Temple of

    Vaccinia

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    John Snow

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    "The experiment, too, was on the grandest scale.

    No fewer than three hundred thousand people of

    both sexes, of every age and occupation, and of

    every rank and station, from gentlefolks down to

    the very poor, were divided into two groups

    without their choice, and, in most cases, without

    their knowledge; one group being supplied with

    water containing the sewage of London, and,

    amongst it, whatever might have come from the

    cholera patients, the other group having water

    quite free from such impurity." - Snow, 1855,p. 75.

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    Grand Experiment

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    Natural Experiment

    Definition: The epidemiologist does not

    manipulate a risk factor but rather observes the

    changes in an outcome as the result of a

    naturally occurring situation.

    Q: What are some characteristics of a good

    experiment?