Exhaustiveness of National Accounts, NOE and informal sector of Armenia Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011

Exhaustiveness of National Accounts, Exhaustiveness of National Accounts,

NOE and informal sector of ArmeniaNOE and informal sector of Armenia

Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011

ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆNATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RANATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RA

Agenda item 6d

Structure of presentationStructure of presentation

Brief overview of National Accounts in ArmeniaBrief overview of National Accounts in Armenia

Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDP Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDP

Measuring the contribution of the informal sector (IS) to the totalMeasuring the contribution of the informal sector (IS) to the total

economy, Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430) economy, Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430) • Presentation of IS GVA estimates/shares by industry.Presentation of IS GVA estimates/shares by industry.

• Which activities noted high contribution of informal sector (in Which activities noted high contribution of informal sector (in proportion to total) GVA? proportion to total) GVA?

• The characteristics of these industries that could explain why IS The characteristics of these industries that could explain why IS contribution is high. contribution is high.

• Description of the IS labor productivities in each industry. Description of the IS labor productivities in each industry. Comparison with the labor productivity in the formal sector.Comparison with the labor productivity in the formal sector.

• Characteristics of informal sector enterprises.Characteristics of informal sector enterprises.

Implementation of Eurostat Tabular approach to ExhaustivenessImplementation of Eurostat Tabular approach to Exhaustiveness

of GDPof GDP 2

National accounts of Armenia are compiled in National accounts of Armenia are compiled in accordance with the fundamental concepts, accordance with the fundamental concepts, categories, accounts’ conception of SNA 1993. categories, accounts’ conception of SNA 1993. Simultaneously, the implementation of the ESA 95 Simultaneously, the implementation of the ESA 95 continues.continues.

Since 1990 the ANNUAL accounts are availableSince 1990 the ANNUAL accounts are available

Since 1992 the QUARTERLY accounts are availableSince 1992 the QUARTERLY accounts are availableGDP is compiled by three methodsGDP is compiled by three methods::

-production (according to NACE - Rev.1.1), annual and quarterly-production (according to NACE - Rev.1.1), annual and quarterly ((current and constant pricescurrent and constant prices, s, sseasonally adjusted)seasonally adjusted)

-expenditure, annual and quarterly (current and constant prices, -expenditure, annual and quarterly (current and constant prices, seasonally adjusted)seasonally adjusted)

-income (only for annual data, -income (only for annual data, current pricescurrent prices))

BRIEF OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN BRIEF OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN ARMENIAARMENIA

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Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDPin Armenia’s GDP

According to the conceptual framework of Measuring According to the conceptual framework of Measuring the Non-Observed Economy the Non-Observed Economy – Handbook, ILO, IMF, – Handbook, ILO, IMF, CIS ISC, 2002CIS ISC, 2002

GDP includes an estimate of Non-observed economy GDP includes an estimate of Non-observed economy (NOE) since 1994. (NOE) since 1994.

NOE in Armenia’s GDP includes:NOE in Armenia’s GDP includes: - underground production, - underground production, - deficiencies in the basic data collection system- deficiencies in the basic data collection system - informal sector production and - informal sector production and - production of households for own final use.- production of households for own final use.Illegal production is out of GDP estimate.Illegal production is out of GDP estimate.

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Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDPin Armenia’s GDP

Estimations are based on following data sources:Estimations are based on following data sources: -employment data (formal employment reported by -employment data (formal employment reported by companies)companies) -labour force survey (total employment received from-labour force survey (total employment received from households)households) -ILCS -ILCS -special one-off sample surveys (construction, -special one-off sample surveys (construction, education,education, healthcare, trade, NPISH) healthcare, trade, NPISH) -other indirect methods-other indirect methods

Special round of surveys focused on informal activities Special round of surveys focused on informal activities was held during1997-1998: was held during1997-1998: -small size enterprises-small size enterprises- labor force survey - labor force survey - survey of self-employed- survey of self-employed

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20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009

GDPGDP 27,327,3 27,427,4 26,326,3 25,025,0 24,824,8

A,B A,B AgricultureAgriculture 24,124,1 24,724,7 22,522,5 22,322,3 22,122,1

D D Manufacturing Manufacturing 42,742,7 41,841,8 38,538,5 36,036,0 49,749,7

E E ElectricityElectricity 0,00,0 0,00,0 0,00,0 5,25,2 7,47,4

F F Construction Construction 36,336,3 38,038,0 41,441,4 38,438,4 36,336,3

G G TradeTrade 55,355,3 53,553,5 49,449,4 49,249,2 45,845,8

H H Hotels and restaurants Hotels and restaurants 5,55,5 17,017,0 8,08,0 6,46,4 21,121,1

I I Transport Transport 11,211,2 9,19,1 8,08,0 10,010,0 13,813,8

K K Real estate, rentingReal estate, renting 20,520,5 16,916,9 17,217,2 13,913,9 11,511,5

M M Education Education 6,56,5 7,07,0 7,47,4 7,07,0 7,07,0

N N Health Health 56,056,0 50,950,9 49,949,9 31,631,6 44,744,7

O O Other services Other services 43,043,0 34,934,9 31,431,4 25,925,9 26,126,1

Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDP by industries,in Armenia’s GDP by industries,

%%

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Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDP by industries,in Armenia’s GDP by industries,

%%

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MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL ECONOMY Informal Sector Survey, ADB ECONOMY Informal Sector Survey, ADB

(RETA 6430)-2009(RETA 6430)-2009

IS According to the Delhi GroupIS According to the Delhi Group

The Delhi Group (Expert Group on IS set up by UNSD) The Delhi Group (Expert Group on IS set up by UNSD) proposed the following criteria to identify the IS:proposed the following criteria to identify the IS:

• Legal organization (unincorporated enterprises)Legal organization (unincorporated enterprises)• No complete set of accountsNo complete set of accounts• With at least some market outputWith at least some market output• Employment size (less then 5Employment size (less then 5))

For statistical and SNA purposes, the IS is defined in terms ofFor statistical and SNA purposes, the IS is defined in terms ofenterprise (producing unit). Thus, measuring its contributionenterprise (producing unit). Thus, measuring its contributionto GDP is made more explicit. It is defined as part ofto GDP is made more explicit. It is defined as part ofhousehold unincorporated enterprises and a subsector of thehousehold unincorporated enterprises and a subsector of thenational accounts.national accounts.

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(RETA 6430)-2009(RETA 6430)-2009

NSS RA applied mixed survey approach in 2009 through the ADBNSS RA applied mixed survey approach in 2009 through the ADB

Regional Technical Assistance (RETA) 6430: Measuring theRegional Technical Assistance (RETA) 6430: Measuring the

Informal Sector. It had two phases: Informal Sector. It had two phases:

11. Expanded Labor and Employment module of the Integrated. Expanded Labor and Employment module of the Integrated

Living Conditions Survey (ILCS), with additional questions Living Conditions Survey (ILCS), with additional questions

- identifying household unincorporated enterprises with at- identifying household unincorporated enterprises with at

least some market production (HUEMs), least some market production (HUEMs),

- distinguishing informal employment from formal employment, - distinguishing informal employment from formal employment,

- the extent of social protection mechanisms. - the extent of social protection mechanisms.

2. the Informal Sector Survey, covered 624 PSUs. The sampling 2. the Informal Sector Survey, covered 624 PSUs. The sampling

frame constituted the list of HUEMs identified in phase 1. A total offrame constituted the list of HUEMs identified in phase 1. A total of

548 HUEMs were included in the ISS. 548 HUEMs were included in the ISS.

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Structure of ISS Questionnaire in ArmeniaStructure of ISS Questionnaire in Armenia


(RETA 6430)-2009(RETA 6430)-2009

Section ASection A Organization of BusinessOrganization of Business

Section BSection B Employment and CompensationEmployment and Compensation

Section CSection C Production and SaleProduction and Sale

Section DSection D Expenditures on Raw Materials and StockExpenditures on Raw Materials and Stock

Section ESection E Capital ExpendituresCapital Expenditures

Section FSection F Credit InformationCredit Information

Section GSection G Other InformationOther Information

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(RETA 6430)-2009(RETA 6430)-2009ISS QuestionnaireISS Questionnaire DescriptionDescription NA componentsNA components

Section B, Employment Section B, Employment

and Compensation and Compensation – – gathers information on the incomes paid from gathers information on the incomes paid from

the production and other components of GVA the production and other components of GVA

under the income approachunder the income approach

Income approach – Income approach –

compensation and compensation and

operating surplusoperating surplus

Section C, Production, Section C, Production,

Inventory and Sale Inventory and Sale – – information include sales, revenues, information include sales, revenues,

inventories and own consumption of the inventories and own consumption of the

enterprise from production, either in agriculture enterprise from production, either in agriculture

or non-agriculture enterprises.or non-agriculture enterprises.

Production Production

approach – output approach – output

Section D, Section D,

Expenditures on Raw Expenditures on Raw

Materials and Stock Materials and Stock

– – data gathered are on expenditures on inputs to data gathered are on expenditures on inputs to

production incurred by the enterprise, either in production incurred by the enterprise, either in

agriculture or non-agriculture enterprises.agriculture or non-agriculture enterprises.

Production Production

approach – approach –

intermediate input intermediate input

Section E, Capital Section E, Capital

Expenditures Expenditures – – consists of items on the types and costs of consists of items on the types and costs of

fixed capital purchases / sold by the enterprise.fixed capital purchases / sold by the enterprise.other variables – other variables –

gross fixed capital gross fixed capital

formationformation

Change in inventories Change in inventories - gathers estimates of changes in inventories of - gathers estimates of changes in inventories of

outputoutputOther variables - Other variables -

InventoriesInventories

Activity fluctuations Activity fluctuations

during last 12 months during last 12 months - records the sales trend of the business which - records the sales trend of the business which

can be utilized to approximate the annual level can be utilized to approximate the annual level

of production and verify degree of activities of production and verify degree of activities

Annualization of Annualization of

GVA estimatesGVA estimates

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Informal sector GVA by industries Informal sector GVA by industries

Share in total GVA of industry,

%

Share in informal

sector total GVA

TOTAL GVA 11.2 100.0

A,BAgriculture, hunting and forestry, fishing 22.4 36.2

C Mining and quarrying 0.0 0.0D Manufacturing 5.0 4.3E Electricity, gas and water supply 0.0 0.0F Construction 15.4 26.6

GWholesale and retail trade, repairs, etc. 14.8 18.6

H Hotels and restaurants 0.0 0.0

ITransport, storage, and communications 3.7 2.9

J Financial intermediation 0.0 0.0

KReal estate, renting, and business activities 8.7 4.2

LPublic administration and defense, social security 0.0 0.0

M Education 7.0 2.5N Health and social work 4.9 1.8

OOther community, social and personal services 16.6 3.012

Informal sector GVA by Informal sector GVA by industriesindustries

TradeTrade: : - average share in GDP 2002-2008 – about 11.0%, average share in GDP 2002-2008 – about 11.0%,

2009 – 12.7%, 2010 - 13.0%2009 – 12.7%, 2010 - 13.0%

- influenced by large imports of goods, which influenced by large imports of goods, which

comprised about 38-39% in GDP of recent yearscomprised about 38-39% in GDP of recent years

- many informal small trade points (boutiques) mainly many informal small trade points (boutiques) mainly

in rural areasin rural areas

Other community, social and personal servicesOther community, social and personal services::- includes Recreational, cultural, sport, sewage and includes Recreational, cultural, sport, sewage and

refuse disposal and other personal services,refuse disposal and other personal services,

- share in GDP is small – 1.8% in 2009 and 2010share in GDP is small – 1.8% in 2009 and 2010

- informal production mainly in personal services like informal production mainly in personal services like

hairdressinghairdressing

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Informal Sector GVA by urbanity in Informal Sector GVA by urbanity in ArmeniaArmenia

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Agriculture and non-agriculture GVA Agriculture and non-agriculture GVA in the Formal and Informal sectorsin the Formal and Informal sectors

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Labor productivityLabor productivity

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Type of premises where business Type of premises where business activities are conductedactivities are conducted

LocationLocation Proportion (%)Proportion (%)Farm or individual agriculture / subsidiary plotFarm or individual agriculture / subsidiary plot 84.2584.25

Home or workplace of the clientHome or workplace of the client 4.344.34

Transport vehicleTransport vehicle 2.602.60

At home with no special work spaceAt home with no special work space 2.252.25

Market, bazaar stall, trade fairMarket, bazaar stall, trade fair 1.941.94

At home with work space inside / attached to the At home with work space inside / attached to the homehome 1.201.20

Street, pavement or highway with fixed postStreet, pavement or highway with fixed post 1.111.11

No fixed location (e.g., mobile, door-to-door, street No fixed location (e.g., mobile, door-to-door, street w/o fixed postw/o fixed post 0.750.75

Construction siteConstruction site 0.590.59

Business premise with fixed location independent Business premise with fixed location independent from homefrom home 0.380.38

Employer's homeEmployer's home 0.210.21

OthersOthers 0.380.38

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Average Employment of IS Average Employment of IS Enterprises by IndustryEnterprises by Industry

IndustryIndustry WorkersWorkers Paid Paid WorkersWorkers

Agriculture, hunting and forestry, fishingAgriculture, hunting and forestry, fishing 2.32.3 1.11.1

ManufacturingManufacturing 1.91.9 1.01.0

ConstructionConstruction 1.21.2 1.11.1

Wholesale and Retail TradeWholesale and Retail Trade 1.31.3 1.11.1

Transport and CommunicationTransport and Communication 1.31.3 1.01.0

Real Estate, Renting Real Estate, Renting 1.01.0 1.01.0

EducationEducation 1.01.0 1.01.0

Health and Social WorkHealth and Social Work 1.01.0 1.01.0

Other Service ActivitiesOther Service Activities 1.251.25 1.11.1

Max of workers - 6, paid workers - 5: in Agriculture.Max of workers - 6, paid workers - 5: in Agriculture.

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Reason for choosing the business Reason for choosing the business activityactivity

ReasonReason %%

Family traditionFamily tradition 41.841.8

More stable returns than other products / servicesMore stable returns than other products / services 12.212.2

It is the profession that I knowIt is the profession that I know 7.67.6

It gives better income / higher profits than other products or It gives better income / higher profits than other products or servicesservices 5.95.9


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Source of Financing of IS enterprisesSource of Financing of IS enterprises

SourceSource Proportion (%)Proportion (%)

Private bankPrivate bank 77.777.7

Private money lender / pawnshopPrivate money lender / pawnshop 12.812.8

Relative / neighbor / friendsRelative / neighbor / friends 11.211.2

CooperativeCooperative 1.31.3

Employer / landlordEmployer / landlord 0.00.0


ReasonReason for not availing of any loan to finance business for not availing of any loan to finance business activityactivity- High interest rate for loans – 52.1%,High interest rate for loans – 52.1%,- Burdensome requirements – 30.8%,Burdensome requirements – 30.8%,- Other source of income – 16.7%.Other source of income – 16.7%.

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Implementation of Eurostat Tabular Implementation of Eurostat Tabular

approach approach

to Exhaustiveness of GDPto Exhaustiveness of GDP

Current TWINNING project from January 2011 to Current TWINNING project from January 2011 to

January 2013 with Statistics of Denmark as the core January 2013 with Statistics of Denmark as the core

partner includes also project component for partner includes also project component for

Exhaustiveness of GDP with aim to introduce Eurostat Exhaustiveness of GDP with aim to introduce Eurostat

Tabular approach to Exhaustiveness into practice. Tabular approach to Exhaustiveness into practice.

Table 1A is already completed for all industries and 7 Table 1A is already completed for all industries and 7

types of non-exhaustiveness and draft Table 2A is types of non-exhaustiveness and draft Table 2A is

completed for one industry.completed for one industry.

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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆNATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RANATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RA

Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011

Documents

Exhaustiveness of National Accounts, NOE and informal sector of Armenia Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011