Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
3 Types of DSM Potential Achievable Program Technical Economic Naturally Occurring Technical – complete penetration of measures analyzed in applications where deemed technically feasible from an engineering perspective. Economic – technical potential of measures that are cost-effective when compared to supply-side alternatives Achievable Program – subset of economic potential captured with specific program funding and measure incentive levels (Incorporates real-world customer behavior) Naturally Occurring – the amount of reduction estimated to occur as a result of normal market forces, that is, in the absence of any utility programs
Citation preview
Experience you can trust.
Californial Industrial Energy Efficiency PotentialCALMAC/MAESTRO MeetingSan Francisco, CAJuly 27, 2006
Fred [email protected]
2
Acknowledgements Key study contributors: KEMA, LBNL, Quantum
Consulting Study funded through the California public goods
charge for energy efficiency Managed for the CPUC by PG&E Review and input from the California IOUs
– PG&E
– SCE
– SCG
– SDG&E
3
Types of DSM Potential
Achievable Program
Technical
Economic
Naturally Occurring
Technical – complete penetration of measures analyzed in applications where deemed technically feasible from an engineering perspective.
Economic – technical potential of measures that are cost-effective when compared to supply-side alternatives
Achievable Program – subset of economic potential captured with specific program funding and measure incentive levels (Incorporates real-world customer behavior)
Naturally Occurring – the amount of reduction estimated to occur as a result of normal market forces, that is, in the absence of any utility programs
4
Estimating DSM Potential
Building DataEnd Use Saturation
End Use ConsumptionLoadshapes
Building ft2, # Homes
Building DataEnd Use Saturation
End Use ConsumptionLoadshapes
Building ft2, # Homes
Measure DataCosts
SavingsCurrent Saturation
Measure DataCosts
SavingsCurrent Saturation
Program Data and
Adoption Inputs
Economic Potential
Economic Potential
TechnicalPotentialTechnicalPotential
NaturallyOccurring Efficiency
NaturallyOccurring Efficiency
Model InputsModel Inputs
Sc en ar io sEconomic Data
Avoided CostsRates
Discount/Inflation Rate
Economic DataAvoided Costs
RatesDiscount/Inflation Rate
Program PotentialProgram Potential
(Achievable)
5
Key Inputs Measure data
– Costs, savings, applicability, saturation– Source: LBNL-process measures, KEMA-lighting/HVAC
Industrial energy consumption data– Electricity and natural gas use by end use and industry– Utility billing data, MECS, Program evaluations
Economic data– Avoided costs, energy rates, discount rates, inflation rate– CPUC avoided cost study, CEC rate forecast, current California
assumptions
Utility program data– Budgets, accomplishments, goals– California utilities
6
Measures
Process HVAC LightingHE equipment HE chillers/DX T8-EBControls Controls CFLsO&M Tune-ups ControlsSystem optimization Window filmEfficient processes Insulation OtherASDs Heat exchangers Power recoveryProper sizing ENERGY STARLoad control TransformersInsulationHeat recovery
7
Baseline Energy Consumption
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Food
Textiles,Apprel
Lumber,Furniture
Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber,Plastics
Stone,Clay,Glass
Prim Metals
Fab Metals
Ind Mach
Electronics
Transp Equip
Instruments
Misc.
GWh
0 500 1,000 1,500
Food
Textiles,Apprel
Lumber,Furniture
Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber,Plastics
Stone,Clay,Glass
Prim Metals
Fab Metals
Ind Mach
Electronics
Transp Equip
Instruments
Misc.
Million ThermsNote: ~ 50% of Petroleum use is as feedstocks
Electricity Natural Gas
8
Baseline Energy Consumption
Proc Heat11%
Proc Cool8%
Pumps15%
Fans8%
Comp Air9%
Proc Drives21%
Proc Other2%
HVAC11%
Lighting10%
Other5%
Boiler40%
Proc Heat46%
Other Process Use
2%
HVAC7%
Other5%
Excludes gas used for feedstocks
Electricity Natural Gas
9
Estimated Technical and Economic Potential
FuelTechnicalPotential
% ofBase Use
EconomicPotential
% ofBase Use
Electricity
GWh 5,485 17% 4,973 15%
MW 755 16% 657 14%
Natural Gas
Mth 469 13% 468 13%
10
Technical and Economic Potential
2,411
2,762
311
2,200
2,495
278
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
PG&E SCE SDG&E
GW
h
TechnicalEconomic
11
Technical and Economic Potential
328
381
46
287
330
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
PG&E SCE SDG&E
Peak
MW
Technical
Economic
12
Technical and Economic Potential
211229
29
211229
29
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
PG&E SCG SDG&E
Mill
ions
of T
herm
s pe
r Yea
r
TechnicalEconomic
13
Technical and Economic PotentialElectricity Natural Gas
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Compressed Air
Fans
Pumps
Drives
Heating
Refrigeration
Cooling
Lighting
Other
GWh per Year
TechnicalEconomic
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Boilers
HVAC
Process Heat
Millions of Therms
TechnicalEconomic
14
Electricity Supply Curve
O&M cost savings are not included.
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
$0.50
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Savings Potential as a % of Base Energy Use
Leve
lized
$/k
Wh
Save
d
15
Natural Gas Supply Curve
O&M cost savings are not included.
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Savings Potential as a % of Base Gas Use
Leve
lized
$ p
er T
herm
Sav
ed
16
Program Funding Scenarios
*Incentives are not paid on equipment maintenance measures.
Program Budget Components % of Measure Funding Scenario Administration Marketing Incentives Total Cost Paid*
Electricity Base Achievable $5.2 $12.7 $16.1 $34.0 20%-60% Advanced Achievable $7.5 $14.3 $30.1 $51.9 45%-90%
Maximum Achievable $7.1 $15.9 $54.4 $77.4 100% Natural Gas Base Achievable $1.3 $1.7 $2.1 $5.1 50%-70% Advanced Achievable $3.9 $3.2 $6.8 $14.0 75%-85% Maximum Achievable $8.6 $5.7 $14.9 $29.3 100%
Average Expenditures Over the 2005-2016 Analysis Period in Millions of $ per Year
17
Achievable Electricity Potential
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cum
ulat
ive
GW
h/ Y
ear S
avin
gs
Maximum Achievable
Advanced Achievable
Base Achievable
Naturally Occurring
18
Achievable Electricity Potential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cum
ulat
ive
MW
Sav
ings
Maximum AchievableAdvanced AchievableBase AchievableNaturally Occurring
19
Achievable Natural Gas Potential
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cum
ulat
ive
Mth
/Yea
r Sav
ings
Maximum Achievable
Advanced Achievable
Base Achievable
Naturally Occurring
20
Potential Savings by Utility
Electricity Natural Gas
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
GWh per Year
EconomicMaximum AchievableAdvanced AchievableBase Achievable
0 50 100 150 200 250
PG&E
SCG
SDG&E
Mth per Year
EconomicMaximum AchievableAdvanced AchievableBase Achievable
Cumulative net savings: 2005-2016
21
Potential Savings by Industry GroupCumulative net savings: 2005-2016
Electricity Natural Gas
0 100 200 300 400 500
Food
Textiles,Apparel
Lumber,Furniture
Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber,Plastics
Stone,Clay,Glass
Prim Metals
Fab Metals
Ind Mach
Electronics
Transp Equip
Instruments
Misc.
GWh per Year
Maximum AchievableAdvanced AchievableBase Achievable
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Food
Textiles,Apparel
Lumber,Furniture
Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber,Plastics
Stone,Clay,Glass
Prim Metals
Fab Metals
Ind Mach
Electronics
Transp Equip
Instruments
Misc.
Mth per Year
Maximum AchievableAdvanced AchievableBase Achievable
22
Potential Savings by End UseCumulative net savings: 2005-2016
Electricity Natural Gas
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Compressed Air
Fans
Pumps
Drives
Heating
Refrigeration
Space Cooling
Lighting
Other
GWh per Year
Maximum Achievable
Advanced Achievable
Base Achievable
0 50 100 150
Boilers
HVAC
Process Heat
Mth per Year
Maximum Achievable
Advanced Achievable
Base Achievable
23
Key Measures
Electricity Measures% Base
Achievable Natural Gas Measures% Base
Achievable Pumps - System Optimization 24.2% Improved boiler insulation 35.0% T8 Lighting 12.8% Load control - boilers 26.3% Pumps - Controls 7.5% Process Controls & Mgmt – proc heat 24.0% Compressed Air - System Optimization 7.0% Maintain boilers 4.2% CFLs 5.2% Fouling control - proc heating 3.7% Pumps - ASD (100+ hp) 4.7% Improved process control - boilers 2.8% Optimization - Refrigeration 3.5% Automatic steam trap monitoring 1.4% Fans - System Optimization 2.9% Water treatment - boilers 1.2% Comp Air - ASD (100+ hp) 2.7% Process integration - proc heat 0.5% Compressed Air-O&M 2.4% Heat Recovery - proc heat 0.2% Pumps - O&M 2.3% Efficient burners - proc heat 0.1% Fans - ASD (100+ hp) 2.2% Optimize furnace operations – proc heat 0.1% Compressed Air- Sizing 1.6% Improve ceiling insulation - HVAC 0.1% Fans - Controls 1.4% EMS installation - HVAC 0.07% Pumps - Motor practices-1 (100+ HP) 1.3% EMS optimization – HVAC 0.07%
Top 15 Total 81.9% Top 15 Total 99.7%
24
Electric Cost - Benefit
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
Pres
ent V
alue
in $
Bill
ions
Total Benefits
Participant Costs
Program Incentives
Program Admin and Marketing
Base Achievable Maximum Achievable
Net Benefits:$0.9 Billion
Net Benefits:$1.3 Billion
Advanced Achievable
Net Benefits:$1.1 Billion
Cumulative: 2005-2016
Value of benefits and costs over life of measures, nominal discount rate = 8 percent, inflation rate = 3 percent.
25
Natural Gas Cost - BenefitCumulative: 2005-2016
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8Pr
esen
t Val
ue in
$ B
illio
ns
Total Benefits
Participant Costs
Program Incentives
Program Admin and Marketing
Base Achievable Maximum Achievable
Net Benefits:$0.4 Billion
Net Benefits:$1.3 Billion
Net Benefits:$0.9 Billion
Advanced Achievable
Value of benefits and costs over life of measures, nominal discount rate = 8 percent, inflation rate = 3 percent.
26
Summary of Net Achievable Potential Results
Electricity Natural Gas
Result Base
Achievable Advanced Achievable
Maximum Achievable
Base Achievable
Advanced Achievable
Maximum Achievable
Program Costs (Mil.) $317 $493 $770 $48 $126 $275
Participant Costs (Mil.) $285 $305 $247 $24 $48 $61
Avoided Cost Benefits (Mil.) $1,523 $1,946 $2,353 $497 $1,027 $1,608
Net Benefits (Mil.) $921 $1,149 $1,336 $426 $853 $1,271
Net Savings 1,706 GWh/Yr 2,284 GWh/Yr 2,748 GWh/Yr 47 Mth/Yr 122 Mth/Yr 192 Mth/Yr
216 MW 301 MW 378 MW
Program TRC Ratio 2.5 2.4 2.3 7.0 5.9 4.8
Cumulative: 2005-2016
Value of benefits and costs over life of measures, nominal discount rate = 8 percent, inflation rate = 3 percent.
27
Summary and Conclusions Over the 2005-2016 period:
– Achievable electric potential: 5% - 8% of base usage– Achievable gas potential: 1% - 5% of base usage
Maximum achievable savings are 60% higher than base achievable savings for electricity and 300% higher than base savings for natural gas– Considerable uncertainty in Maximum achievable estimates, especially for
natural gas savings
Improved process controls, system optimization, and operation and maintenance measures are key components of potential savings.– These measures are more difficult to implement than typical efficiency
measures and customer adoption questions contribute to forecast uncertainty.
28
Report
The full report is available at the CALMAC website(www.calmac.org)
– Main Report:http://www.calmac.org/publications/Industrial_Potential_Vol_1_Main_Report_KEMA.pdf
– Appendiceshttp://www.calmac.org/publications/Industrial_Potential_Vol_2_Appendixes_KEMA.pdf
