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eqspertis azri

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daviT bataSvili

rogor axorcielebs TurqeTi Tavis axal geostrategias:

monaxazi

eqspertis azri

daviT bataSvili

rogor axorcielebs TurqeTi Tavis axal geostrategias: monaxazi

2017

85

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2017 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-27-172-4

TurqeTis marcxma pirvel msoflio omSi daasrula sau kuneebis manZilze damkvidrebuli misi, rogorc aqtiuri sa erTaSoriso moTamaSis, roli. Semdgom aTwleulebSi Turqe-Tis strategiis mizani metwilad iyo sakuTari usafrTxoebis dacva. 1974 wlis kviprosis omis msgavsi izolirebuli epi-zodebi ar warmoadgenda TurqeTis Tanmimdevrul mcdelobas gavlena sakuTar sazRvrebs gareT gaevrcelebina.

civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg am mxriv cvlilebebi da-iw yo. amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis da sabWoTa kavSiris pa -eq robis dasasrulma gazarda TurqeTis strategiuli SesaZ-leblobebi, maT Soris, axlo aRmosavleTSi. amasTanave, sab-WoTa kavSiris da iugoslaviis daSlam ankaras saSualeba mis ca kavSiri daemyarebina axlad Seqmnil Tu aRdgenil sa-xel mwifoebTan. TurqeTi am SesaZleblobis gamosayeneblad mzad iyo _ mas hqonda ufro modernizebuli saxelmwifo da uf ro Zlieri ekonomika, vidre wina istoriul periodebSi. im droisTvis, roca 2002 wels samarTlianobisa da ganviTarebis partia (AKP) xelisuflebaSi movida, TurqeTis axleburi sa-ga reo politika ukve warmoadgenda eqspertebis aqtiu ri gan-sjis sagans.1

AKP-is mmarTvelobis dros TurqeTis sagareo strate-gia ufro mizanmimarTuli gaxda. mis konceptualur formu-lirebaSi mniSvnelovani roli ekuTvnis ahmeT davuToRlus, romelic iyo premier-ministr rejep taip erdoRanis mTavari mrCeveli 2003-2009 wlebSi, xolo Semdeg _ sagareo saqmeTa ministri (2009-2014) da premier-ministri (2014-2016).

davuToRlu iSviaTi magaliTia akademiuri strategi-uli moazrovnisa, romelsac SesaZlebloba mieca sakuTari ideebis ganxorcieleba saxelmwifo politikaSi ecada. Tavis cnobil wignSi „strategiuli siRrme: TurqeTis saerTaSori-so pozicia“ (2001) davuToRlu amtkicebs, rom TurqeTi unda gaxdes geopolitikuri centri, rogoric warsulSi iyo, da gaavrcelos sakuTari gavlena mis garSemo arsebul regioneb-Si, maT Soris, axlo aRmosavleTSi, balkaneTsa da kavkasiaSi da zogadad islamur samyaroSi. AKP-is mTavrobis pirobebSi TurqeTi swored amis miRwevas cdilobs.

TurqeTis axali geostrategiuli koncefcia misi li-derebis ritorikaSic aisaxa. 2013 wels davuToRlum Tqva,

rom TurqeTi „isev daakavSirebs saraevos damaskosTan, ben-Razis erzurumTan da baTumTan“. man daamata, rom `SeiZleba isini sxvadasxva qveynidan Candnen, magram 110 wlis win ie-meni da skopie erTi qveynis nawilebi iyvnen iseve, rogorc erzurumi da benRazi~.2 2014 wlis martSi erdoRanma adgi-lobrivi arCevnebis Semdeg gamosvlisas madloba gadauxada mxardamWerebs ara mxolod TurqeTSi, aramed aseve egviptesa da pales tinaSi, agreTve „Zmebs balkaneTSi, bosniaSi, make-doniaSi, kosovoSi…~3 2014 wlis 10 agvistos saprezidento arCevnebSi gamarjvebis Semdeg warmoTqmul sityvaSi er-doRanma Tqva: „dRes gaimarjva ara mxolod TurqeTma, ara-med aseve islamabadma, erbilma, beiruTma, saraevom, skopiem, hamam, homsma, ramalam, Razam, ierusalimma~.4

TurqeTis geostrategiuli xedva da ambiciebi ar Semoifargleba mxolod politikuri ritorikiT. es xedva da ambiciebi praqtikuli sagareo politikis saxiTac xorciel-deba, risi konkretul magaliTebsac qvemoT ganvixilavT. es moicavs mraval moqmedebas, romelic dakavSirebulia didi resursebis xarjvasTan da, zog SemTxvevaSi, seriozul riskebTan.

unda aRiniSnos, rom 2016 wlis maisSi davuToRlus wasvlam premier-ministris postidan da, savaraudod, aqti-uri politikidanac ar iqonia raime mniSvnelovani gavlena Turqul sagareo strategiaze. kursi dasaxulia, yovel SemT-xvevaSi, AKP-is xelisuflebisTvis da misi ZiriTadi arsi aRa-raa damokidebuli konkretul individebze.

siriuli morevi

TurqeTis axali geostrategiis yvelaze TvalsaCino magaliTia siria. imis miuxedavad, Tu ramdenad warmatebu-lia am qveyanaSi Turquli politika, faqtia, rom sakuTari sazRvrebis gareT Tanamedrove TurqeTi swored siriaSi moq-medebs yvelaze aqtiurad.

2011 wlamde TurqeTis politika levantis* regionSi xorcieldeboda SedarebiT rbili meTodebiT. am politikis

* levantis regionSi igulisxmeba Tanamedrove siriis, libanis, israelis, iordaniisa da palestinis teritoria.

mniSvnelovani magaliTi iyo ankaris mier siriasTan, libanTan da iordaniasTan 2010 wels gaformebuli SeTanxmeba Tavisu-fali vaWrobis da mgzavrobis zonis Seqmnis Sesaxeb.5 im dros TurqeTi, sxva mezobeli qveynebis garda, asadis xelisufle-basTanac aviTarebda urTierTobebs.

mas Semdeg, rac 2011 wels siriaSi ajanyeba daiwyo, TurqeTma radikalurad Secvala Tavisi midgoma. man siriaSi Tavisi miznebis misaRwevad xisti Zalis meTodebis gamoyeneba daiwyo, kerZod, reJimis winaaRmdeg mebrZoli meamboxeebis mxar dasaWerad politikuri da sadazvervo Zalisxmevas mimar-Ta.

asadis reJimi, romelic warmoadgens Siizmis „monaTe-save“ alaviTebis religiur jgufs, iyo (da kvlavac aris) ira-nis mokavSire. savaraudod, siriasTan TurqeTis veraviTari diplomatiuri, ekonomikuri da rbili Zalis kavSirebi am re-a lobas ver Secvlidnen. magram Tuki siriaSi Zalaufleba ga-davidoda sunitebis xelSi, romlebic am qveynis mosaxleobis umravlesobas Seadgenen da metwilad asadis winaaRmdeg ari-an, viTareba Zirfesvianad Seicvleboda. aseT SemTxvevaSi si-riaSi TurqeTis Zlieri da grZelvadiani gavlenis damyareba realisturi gaxdeboda.

Sesabamisad, ankaram fsoni imaze dado, rom asadis re-Jimi ver gauZlebda sirielTa umravlesobis winaaRmdegobas da daecemoda. TurqeTi mTlianad dadga meamboxeTa mxares, riTac gamoricxa momavalSi asadis reJimis partniorobis yovelgvari SesaZlebloba. Tumca iranis da ruseTis mier asa-dis mxardaWeram da meamboxeTa gaxleCvam, damaskos reJims ga-darCenis SesaZlebloba misca. ufro metic, siriis saxelmwi-fos moSlasTan erTad TurqeTi ori axali problemis winaSe dadga. erTi iyo qurTebis mier teritoriis mopoveba siriis CrdiloeTSi da Crdilo-aRmosavleTSi, meore _ TurqeTis sazRvarTan daeSis (e.w. „islamuri saxelmwifos“) Camoyali-beba.

mas Semdeg, rac qurTebis mier daeSis damarcxebam TurqeTis sazRvarze faqtobrivad damoukidebeli siri-uli qurTistanis Camoyalibebis perspeqtiva gaaCina, ankaram gadawyvita siriaSi politikuri da sadazvervo RonisZiebebi-dan ufro xist moqmedebebze gadasuliyo. 2016 wlis agvistoSi

TurqeTma daiwyo samxedro operacia CrdiloeT siriaSi. qvei-Ti Zalis umetes nawils Seadgendnen TurqeTis mxardaWeris mqone sirieli meamboxeebi, Tumca specdaniSnulebis, satanko, saartilerio da sahaero Zalebi ekuTvnoda TurqeTis jars.

TurqeTma miaRwia am samxedro operaciis uSualo mizans _ ar dauSva sirieli qurTebis dasavluri anklavis SeerTeba qurTul kontrols daqvemdebarebul ZiriTad teri-toriasTan; aseve _ am operaciis Sedegad CrdiloeT siriaSi Seiqmna da arsebobs Turquli kontrolis zona.

miuxedavad yvelafrisa, TurqeTis mdgomareoba siri-aSi sakmaod rTulia. sirieli qurTebi am droisTvis akont-roleben siriis mniSvnelovan nawils, xolo maTi mTavari politikuri Zala _ demokratiuli kavSiris partia (PYD) _ daaxloebulia qurTistanis muSaTa partiis (PKK) meamboxeeb-Tan, romlebic TurqeTis mTavrobis winaaRmdeg partizanul oms awarmoeben. am viTarebis Secvlis erTaderTi praqtikuli SesaZlebloba ankarisTvis aris pirdapiri samxedro Seteva siriel qurTebze. 2017 wlis maisis mdgomareobiT aseTi nabi-jis gadadgmis saSualebas ar miscemen amerikelebi, romlebic qurTebTan erTad daeSis sawinaaRmdego operacias awarmoe-ben. im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu aSS aRar dauWers mxars siriel qurTebs, TurqeTisTvis rTuli da sisxliani iqneba maT wina-aRmdeg masStaburi samxedro moqmedebebis warmoeba.

amasTanave, asadis reJimi kvlavac ankaris mteria, xolo sirieli meamboxeebi 2017 wlis maisisTvis umZimes mdgo-mareobaSi arian. CrdiloeT siriaSi Turquli kontrolis zonis sazRvarze TurqeTis mier mxardaWerili meamboxeebi ruseTis mier mxardaWerili asadis Zalebis pirispir dganan. gaurkvevelia rogor ganviTardeba es viTareba momavalSi.

am etapze ver gaamarTla TurqeTis CarTvam siriis movlenebSi. nacvlad sunituri mTavrobisa, romelic ankaras siriaSi gavlenis gazrdis SesaZleblobas miscemda, TurqeTs samxreT sazRvarze urTulesi problema aqvs, romlis gadaW-ris gzebic jerjerobiT bundovania.

amave dros, TurqeTma siriaSi aCvena, rom Tuki aucileb-lad an momgebianad miiCnevs, mzad aris ganaxorcielos Tamami samxedro da sadazvervo moqmedebebi sakuTari sazRvrebis gareT.

erayi: qurTuli partniori da mosulis sakiTxi

imis gamo, rom erayis mosaxleobis umetesobas Sii-te bi Seadgenen, mocemul periodSi am qveyanas ufro axlo ur Ti erToba eqneba iranTan, vidre TurqeTTan. es exeba baR-dadis mTavrobas da SiitebiT dasaxlebul regionebs qvey-nis samxreTsa da centrSi, xolo CrdiloeTSi, mis sxvadasxva nawilSi, umravlesobas Seadgenen arabi sunitebi da qurTebi da swored iq cdilobs TurqeTi gavlenis mopovebas.

erayis qurTistani dRes faqtobrivad aris damoukide-beli warmonaqmni, romelsac baRdadTan mxolod nominaluri konfederaciuli urTierToba akavSirebs. is aseve aris an-karis axlo partniori. TurqeTsa da erayis qurTistans So-ris urTierToba daiwyo 1991 wlis sparseTis yuris omis Sem-dgom wlebSi, rodesac TurqeTi Caeria am qurTul regionSi mimdinare samoqalaqo omSi qurTistanis demokratiuli par-tiis (KDP) mxares. dRes regions swored es partia marTavs. TurqeTi aseve atarebda samxedro operaciebs PKK-is qurTi meamboxeebis winaaRmdeg, romlebic TurqeTidan eraySi gada-diodnen. KDP-sTan ankaris TanamSromlobis Sedegad, 1990-ian wlebSi erayis qurTistanSi mudmivi Turquli samxedro ba-zebi Seiqmna.6

ankaras da erayeli qurTebis xelmZRvanelobas poli-tikuri da ekonomikuri TanamSromloba akavSirebs. misi erT-erTi nawilia navTobis eqsporti erayis qurTistanidan TurqeTis teritoriis gavliT, baRdadis mTavrobis mkafiod gamoxatuli nebis winaaRmdeg.

mas Semdeg, rac 2014 wels daeSma daipyro CrdiloeT erayis sunitebiT dasaxlebuli nawili, maT Soris, am regio-nis mTavari qalaqi mosuli, cxadi gaxda, rom adre Tu gvian moxdeboda am teritoriis jihadistebisgan ganTavisufleba. TurqeTma gadawyvita, rom am procesSi CarTuli unda yofi-li yo, raTa mosulis regionis daeSisgan ganTavisuflebis Semdeg iq gavlena moepovebina.

Turqma samxedroebma daafuZnes baza baSiqaSi _ daax-loebiT 15 kilometrSi mosulis Crdilo-aRmosavleTiT, sa-dac wvrTnidnen erayel qurT mebrZolebs da adgilobrivi suniti arabebis SeiaraRebul jgufebs.7 Turqebi maT aseve mxars uWerdnen daeSis winaaRmdeg brZolaSi.8

erayis centraluri mTavrobis mier gamoTqmulma pro-testma qveynis teritoriaze Turquli jaris yofnis winaaRm-deg Sedegi ar gamoiRo,9 miuxedavad baRdadis gancxadebebisa, rom Turqi jariskacebis eraySi yofnam SeiZleba „regionuli omi“ gamoiwvios.10

Turqi jariskacebis erayidan gayvanasTan dakavSirebiT am qveynis premier-ministris haider al-abadis moTxovnebze TurqeTis prezidentis erdoRanis pasuxi iyo: „Sen ar xar Cems doneze, Sen ar xar Cemi Tanaswori, Sen ar gaqvs igive xarisxi, rac me.“ man aseve Tqva, rom ankara ar aniWebs aravi-Tar mniSvnelobas „wivil-kivils eraySi“. amis garda, erdo-Ranma ganacxada, rom mosulis daeSisgan ganTavisuflebis Semdeg „mand unda iyvnen mxolod suniti arabebi, Turqmenebi da qurTebi~.11 TurqeTis premier-ministrma binali ildirim-ma ganacxada, rom TurqeTi „magidasTan iqneboda“ mosulis daeSisgan ganTavisuflebis operaciaSi da amis ignorirebis mcde loba „didi Secdoma“ iqneboda.12

saboloo jamSi, 2016 wlis Semodgomaze dawyebul mo-sulis ganTavisuflebis operaciaSi ZiriTadi roli baRda-dis mTavrobis Zalebs aqvT. 2017 wlis maisis mdgomareobiT gaurkvevelia, ramdenad moaxerxebs TurqeTi gavlenis mopo-vebas mosulis regionSi daeSis saboloo marcxis Semdeg. Tumca, imis miuxedavad, rogor gadawydeba mosulis sakiTxi, am regionSi TurqeTis aqtiuroba cxadad aCvenebs, rom misi Tamami qmedebebi siriaSi mxolod izolirebuli SemTxveva ar aris.

levantis samxreTi

levantis samxreT nawilSi ankaris politika ufro rbilia, vidre siriasa da eraySi.

am regionSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani aqtori, romelic ankaris mxardaWeriT sargeblobs, aris hamasi. es organizacia, romelic amJamad Razis seqtors akontrolebs, dakavSirebu-lia „muslimTa saZmos“ saerTaSoriso qselTan. Tavad „saZmo“ warmoadgens erTi ideologiuri mimarTulebis mqone da mra-val sunitur qveyanaSi arsebuli politikuri organizaciebis krebuls. TurqeTis mmarTveli partia AKP „muslimTa saZmos-Tan“ aris daaxloebuli.

siriis omamde hamasis mTavari partniori iyo irani, rasac ganapirobebda israelis saxiT saerTo mtris yola. Tumca, siriis omSi Zlieria religiuri dapirispirebis ele-menti. hamasi aris sunituri organizacia da misi mxardamWere-bic sunitebi arian, xolo irani aris Siituri saxelmwifo, romelic siriaSi sunit meamboxeebs ebrZvis. aman hamasisTvis gaarTula iranTan mokavSireoba.

am viTarebam TurqeTs RazaSi gavlenis gazrdis SesaZ-lebloba Seuqmna. TurqeTma „misca TavSesafari hamasis wev-rebs, romlebmac miiRes am qveyanaSi Sexvedrebis gamarTvis sa Sualeba da aseve pirdapiri kavSiri TurqeTis mTavrobas-Tan.”13

am politikuri kontaqtebis garda, TurqeTi Razis seq-torSi aviTarebs ekonomikur kavSirebs da zrdis humanitarul daxmarebas. rogorc Cans, ankaram gamoiyena israelTan bolo dros gaumjobesebuli urTierTobebi am mxriv SeRavaTiani uflebebis mosapoveblad. 2015 wlis 26 dekembers TurqeTis sabaJosa da vaWrobis ministrma bulent tufenkCim ganacxada, rom „israelTan molaparakebis Sedegad Turquli saqoneli Razis seqtorSi dabrkolebis gareSe Seva“ da rom „mTeli hu-manitaruli daxmareba Razis seqtorSi Seva Turquli orga-nizaciebis meSveobiT manamde, vidre Razis blokada moixs-neba.“14

Razis garda, TurqeTisTvis interess danarCeni pales-tinac warmoadgens. mas aqvs „Turquli arasamTavrobo orga-nizaciebis qseli da mzardi investiciebi dasavleT sanapir-oze,“15 maT Soris, iseTi proeqtebi, rogorc jeninis indus-triuli zonaa, romelmac, arsebuli monacemebis mixedviT,15 aTasi adamiani daasaqma.16 TurqeTi iCens gansakuTrebul in-teress ierusalimis mimarT. am qalaqis palestinur nawilSi is iordaniis gavlenas upirispirdeba.17

libanSi TurqeTis gavlena SezRudulia, Tumca man „moipova garkveuli kulturuli gavlena libanel sunitebSi da TurqmenebSi sxvadasxva socialuri, kulturuli da eko-nomikuri daxmarebis meSveobiT.“18

siriisa da erayisgan gansxvavebiT, RazaSi, dasav-leT sanapiroze da libanSi SezRudulia TurqeTis rogorc strategiuli interesebi, ise praqtikuli SesaZleblobebi. Sesabamisad, iq ankara xist Zalas ar iyenebs. am etapze mainc

levantis samxreTSi Turquli geostrategiis ZiriTadi ins-trumentebia investiciebi da rbili Zala.

amave dros, dReisTvis TurqeTma ukve Caanacvla eg-vipte, rogorc mTavari ucxouri sunituri Zala Razis seq-torSi. is aseve dasavleT sanapiroze zrdis Tavis gavlenas iordaniis xarjze.

CrdiloeT afrika da „muslimTa saZmo“

AKP-is xelisuflebis kavSirma „muslimTa saZmosTan“ Zalian didi gavlena iqonia TurqeTis politikaze CrdiloeT afrikaSi. amis TvalsaCino magaliTia egvipte.

rodesac 2011 wels egvipteSi momxdari revoluciis Semdeg egvipturi „muslimTa saZmo“ xelisuflebaSi movida, TurqeTis strategiuli perspeqtivebi Zalian kargad gamoiyu-reboda. „saZmos“ warmomadgeneli prezidentis mohamed mor-sis mTavroba TurqeTTan daaxloebuli iyo. amis Sedegad, TurqeTis geopolitikur banakSi aRmoCnda axlo aRmosavleT-Si yvelaze didi mosaxleobis, erT-erTi uZlieresi jarisa da mniSvnelovani sagareo gavlenis mqone qveyana. morsis mmar-Tve lobis dros TurqeTis mier egviptis mxardaWeris erT-er-Ti nawili iyo erTi miliardi dolaris odenobis krediti.19

es viTareba didxans ver gagrZelda. mas Semdeg, rac morsis xistad konservatiul Sida politikas mosaxleobis uzarmazari saprotesto aqciebi daupirispirda, egviptis samxedro elitam 2013 wlis 3 ivliss igi xelisuflebas Camo-aSora. saudis arabeTma, romelic upirispirdeba region-Si „muslimTa saZmos“ gavlenas, maSinve mxari dauWira axal mmarTvel reJims general abdel fatah el-sisis xelmZRvane-lobiT.

TurqeTis reaqcia egvipteSi momxdar gadatrialebaze Zalian mZafri iyo, man el-sisis xelisufleba aralegitimu-rad gamoacxada. egviptis mTavroba, Tavis mxriv, akritikebda TurqeTs „muslimTa saZmos“ mxardaWerisTvis. am dapirispi-rebis Sedegad egviptem 2013 wlis noemberSi qveynidan gaaZeva TurqeTis elCi da Tavadac gamoiwvia Tavisi elCi ankaridan.20 mas Semdeg Turqul-egvipturi urTierTobebi dapirispi-rebis reJimSi rCeba. or mxares Soris daZabulobas damate-

biT amZafrebs egviptis uaryofiTi damokidebuleba RazaSi Turquli gavlenis zrdis mimarT.21

libiaSi TurqeTi aseve uWers mxars „muslimTa saZmos“ saerTaSoriso qselTan afilirebul politikur Zalebs, ro-goricaa samarTlianobis da aRmSeneblobis partia (JCP).22

kadafis reJimis dacemis Semdeg, libiaSi mimdinare Sida samxedro konfliqtis fonze, axlo aRmosavleTis ramdenime saxelmwifo or banakSi gadanawilda da libiaSi gavlenis Tvis erTmaneTTan arapirdapiri brZola gaaCaRa. erTi mxridan TurqeTma da katarma mxari dauWires „saZmosTan“ afilire-bul Zalebs, romlebic ZiriTadad libiis dasavleTSi arian dabanakebuli. maTTan dapirispirebul da metwilad qveynis aRmosavleTSi damkvidrebul mxares mxardaWera egviptem, arabTa gaerTianebulma saamiroebma da saudis arabeTma aR-mouCines.

amJamad libiaSi kvlavac grZeldeba qaosuri samxedro konfliqti. gaurkvevelia, rodis SeZlebs es qveyana gaer-Tianebas, rodis eyoleba qmediTi mTavroba da rogori iqneba im droisTvis libiaSi Sida politikuri balansi.

ankaras aseve aqvs kavSiri23 tunisis aRorZinebis par-tiasTan, romelic warmoadgens am qveyanaSi „muslimTa saZ-mos“ adgilobriv variants. Tumca es kavSiri aris Turquli sagareo politikis bevrad ufro „rbili“ versia, vidre misi bolo wlebis midgoma egvipteSi an libiaSi.

samxreTis zRvebSi

me-16 saukuneSi osmaleTis imperias hqonda Zlieri poziciebi indoeTis okeaneSi, sadac is portugalias epaeqre-boda. dRevandel xelaxla gaZlierebul TurqeTs, rogorc Cans, surs isev damkvidrdes am okeanis misadgomebTan.

TurqeTis mTavari strategiuli dasayrdeni siria-erayis samxreTiT aris katari. es mcire zomis, magram mdidari da ambiciuri saxelmwifo TurqeTis mokavSirea da ankarasTan erTad moqmedebs rogorc siriis da libiis omebSi, ise sxva geopolitikur sakiTxebSi. maTi urTierToba gansakuTrebiT ganviTarda „arabuli gazafxulis“ Semdeg da Sedegad moitana 2014 wlis dekemberSi dadebuli xelSekruleba, romliTac

TurqeTma katarSi Tavisi samxedroebis ganlagebis ufleba miiRo.24

TurqeTis saxmeleTo jaris, flotis da specdan-iSnulebis Zalebis warmomadgenlebi katarSi 2015 wlis oqtomber Si ganTavsdnen. imave wlis dekemberSi TurqeTma da katarma xeli moaweres xelSekrulebaTa pakets, romlis nawili iyo SeTanxmeba 2 miliardi dolaris Rirebulebis sam-xed ro SeiaraRebis TurqeTidan katarSi eqsportis Sesaxeb.25 mudmivi Turquli samxedro baza katarSi 2016 wlis aprilSi Seiqmna. am qveyanaSi TurqeTis elCma ahmeT demirokma ganacxa-da, rom bazaze ganlagdeboda saxmeleTo, sahaero, sazRvao da specdaniSnulebis Zalebi.26

2017 wlis maisis mdgomareobiT, arsebobs kataris dedaqalaq dohaSi erToblivi taqtikuri Stabis Seqmnis da bazaze 500-600 samxedro mosamsaxuris ganTavsebis gegmebi.27

aSS-is, britaneTis da safrangeTis Semdeg TurqeTi aris meoTxe qveyana, romelsac ara aqvs gasasvleli sparse-Tis yureze, magram iq aqvs samxedro baza. marTalia, naklebad savaraudoa, rom katarSi ganlagebuli Turqi samxedroebi uaxloes momavalSi aRmoCndebian CarTuli raime samxedro moqmedebaSi, es samxedro pozicia sparseTis yureSi da, ufro farTo gagebiT, indoeTis okeanis regionSi SeiZleba mniSv-nelovani aRmoCndes TurqeTis grZelvadiani geostrategi-uli interesebisTvis.

katari ar aris indoeTis okeanis regionis erTaderTi qveyana, sadac Turqi samxedroebi ganlagdnen. 2010 wlidan TurqeTi samxedro daxmarebas uwevs somalis mTavrobas. 2015 wlis ianvarSi ankaram da mogadiSum xeli moaweres samxedro TanamSromlobis xelSekrulebas, xolo erTi wlis Semdeg erT-erTma Turqma diplomatma ilaparaka somaleli jaris-kacebis wvrTnis mizniT mogadiSuSi Turquli samxedro bazis Seqmnis gegmebze.28 2016 wlis seqtembrisTvis TurqeTma daas-rula am bazis aRWurva da iq 200 Turqi samxedros ganTavseba hqonda dagegmili.29

dabruneba balkaneTSi

balkaneTi kidev erTi regionia, sadac ankara Tavisi gavlenis gazrdas cdilobs. es Zalisxmeva warmoadgens poli-tikuri kavSirebis ganviTarebis da rbili Zalis gamoyenebis kombinacias.

Turquli rbili Zalis safuZvelia osmaleTis imperiis istoriuli memkvidreoba, romlis mimarT balkaneTis zogi qveynis mosaxleobis garkveuli nawili dadebiTadaa ganwyo-bili. rogorc mklevari alida vraCiCi aRniSnavs saerTa-Soriso da usafrTxoebis saqmeTa germanuli institutisTvis daweril kvlevaSi, „TurqeTma Tanmimdevrulad ganaxorciela Zalisxmeva regionSi konkretuli struqturebis Sesaqmnelad. TurqeTis religiuri da kulturuli institutebis qselebs noyieri niadagi daxvda dasavleT balkaneTis bevr nawilSi~.30

TurqeTis Zalisxmeva ZiriTadad mimarTulia „bosniis da hercegovinis, kosovos, albaneTis, makedoniis metwilad muslimur nawilebze“ da sanjakis regionze31 serbeTis samxreT-dasavleTSi da montenegros Crdilo-aRmosavleTSi, aseve Turqul eTnikur umciresobaze bulgareTSi. es Zalisx-meva xorcieldeba Tamamad da Riad. is Seicavs iseT Jestebs, rogorc ahmeT davuToRlus 2009 wels bosniaSi vizitisas ga-keTebuli gancxadeba: `balkaneTis osmaluri saukuneebi iyo warmatebis istoria. amJamad Cven es xelaxla unda aRmovaCi-noT~. man aseve xazi gausva, rom „TurqeTi dabrunda~.32

faqtebi aCvenebs, rom xsenebul Zalisxmevas nawilob-riv mainc moaqvs Sedegi. magaliTisTvis, `2015 wlis noem-berSi erdoRanis mxardamWerebi regionis nawilebidan, sadac muslimebi umravlesobas Seadgenen quCaSi gamovidnen samar-Tlianobisa da ganviTarebis partiis (AKP) saarCevno gamar-jvebis aRsaniSnavad. aseulobiT kosovoeli samxreTul qalaq prizrenSi, makedoniis albanelebi skopiesa da tetovoSi da bosnielebi saraevoSi monawileobdnen am zeimSi“, xolo „mon-tenegroSi bosnielTa partiam, romelic mmarTveli koali-ciis umcrosi wevria, ganacxada, rom es gamarjveba TurqeTs saSualebas miscemda uzrunvelyos balkaneTSi mSvidoba da usafrTxoeba“.33

bosniaSi TurqeTis mmarTvel AKP-s `aqvs kargi urTi-erToba bosniis mTavrobaSi Semaval zog partiasTan, gansa-kuTrebiT _ demokratiuli moqmedebis partiasTan”.34 Turquli rbili Zala bosniaSi aseve aqtiurad muSaobs. 2017 wlis ian-varSi TurqeTis ganaTlebis ministris moadgilem orhan er-demma ganacxada, rom Turquli ena 80-ze met bosniur skolaSi iswavleba.35 amasTan, `Turquli aRdgeniTi programebi, sagan-

manaTleblo programebi da satelevizio serialebi [bosniaSi] xels uwyoben osmaleTis imperiis memkvidris mimarT adami-anTa azrebis pozitiur ganviTarebas~.36 2011 wels bosniis ma-Sindelma liderma baqir izeTbegoviCma gamoTqva mosazreba, rom momavalSi TurqeTi gaxdeboda mizidulobis centri.37

2013 wlis oqtomberSi kosovoSi vizitisas maSin jer kidev premier-ministrma erdoRanma ganacxada: `Cven, yvelani, vekuTvniT saerTo istorias, saerTo kulturas, saerTo civilizacias; Cven varT Zmebi am struqturaSi. ar dagaviwy-deT, TurqeTi aris kosovo, kosovo aris TurqeTi“, riTac ganarisxa serbi politikosebi.38 TurqeTi aris kosovoSi yvelaze didi investori da subsidirebs „mraval proeqts, maT Soris religiur skolebs da meCeTebis rekonstruqcias“. amave dros, ankaram „gamoxata interesi moipovos kontroli kosovoSi aSS-is samxedro bazaze, mas Semdeg, rac mas aSS-is Zalebi datoveben”.39

ankara isev rbili Zalis gamoyenebiT cdilobs gavlena moaxdinos kosovoSi istoriul narativebze. kosovos gana-Tlebis ministrma rame bujam Tqva, rom `TurqeTis ganaT-lebis ministrma moiTxova skolis saxelmZRvaneloebsa da sxva istoriul literaturaSi osmaluri periodis interpre-taciis gadaxedva, raTa imperia naklebad negatiurad iyos asaxuli... TurqeTis moTxovniT, kosovos ganaTlebis sferos TanamSromlebi cvlidnen istoriul saxelmZRvaneloebs os-maleTis imperiis aRweris Sesarbileblad~.40

makedoniaSi eTnikur albanelTa axal politikur par-tia „besas“, arsebuli informaciis mixedviT, mxars uWers an-kara.41 amave dros, TurqeTi cdilobs urTierToba daamyaros ara mxolod makedoniis albanelebTan, aramed mTlianad am qveyanasTan. `wlebis manZilze TurqeTma miawoda makedonias didi raodenobis samxedro aRWurviloba da gamarTa mra-vali treningi da kursi oficrebisa da serJantebisTvis~.42 TurqeTma „moipova mniSvnelovani keTilganwyoba makedoniaSi, rogorc politikur liderebSi, ise mosaxleobaSi, am qveynis damoukideblobis adreuli da mudmivi mxardaWerisTvis, da misi konstituciiT gansazRvruli saxelwodebis aRiarebis-Tvis“.43

albaneTSi TurqeTis gavlena SedarebiT sustia, imis miuxedavad, rom isic Sedis ankaris interesTa sferoSi. or qveyanas Soris aris garkveuli samxedro TanamSromloba, xolo Turqul samxedro xomaldebs aqvT albaneTis dure-sis portis gamoyenebis ufleba. amave dros, TurqeTis rbili Zala albaneTSi, rogorc Cans, ufro sustia, vidre bosniaSi an, Tundac, albanelebiT dasaxlebul kosovoSi. rodesac al-baneTSi daiwyo laparaki, rom TurqeTs surda am qveynis sa-xel mZRvaneloebSi imave tipis cvlilebebi Sesuliyo, rogorc kosovoSi, albanuri sazogadoebis nawili amas aRSfoTebiT Sexvda.44

TurqeTi urTierTobebs amyarebs aseve proTurqul um-ciresobebTan _ eTnikur TurqebTan bulgareTSi45 da bosni-elebTan sanjakis46 istoriul provinciaSi (romelic dRes serbeTsa da montenegroSi mdebareobs).

derefani kavkasiaSi

samxreTi kavkasia TurqeTisTvis strategiulad mniSv-nelovania satranzito derefnis gamo, romelic gadis saqarT-velosa da azerbaijanze da romelsac aqvs potenciali gaxdes evropisa da aziis mniSvnelovani damakavSirebeli rgoli. ukve moqmedi da dagegmili milsadenebi da rkinigza am regionidan TurqeTSi gadadis, ris Sedegadac es ukanasknelic warmoad-gens am derefnis nawils. satranzito derefnis warmatebuli ganviTareba gazrdida TurqeTis simdidres da strategiul wonas.

evropisa da aziis dakavSirebis perspeqtivis garda, samxreT kavkasiis derefani TurqeTsa da centralur aziasac akavSirebs. TurqeTs aqvs ambicia gavlena hqondes centralur aziaSi, Tumca misi konkurenti saxelmwifoebis, ruseTis da iranis, geografiuli mdebareoba mxolod erT „Tavisufal“ gzas tovebs TurqeTsa da centralur azias Soris _ saqarT-velos, azerbaijanisa da kaspiis zRvis gavliT.

TurqeTs aqvs megobruli urTierTobebi saqarTvelos-Tan, xolo misma partniorobam azerbaijanTan samxedro alian-sis donesac miaRwia. SeTanxmeba strategiuli partniorobis da ormxrivi mxardaWeris Sesaxeb, romelic am orma qveyanam

2010 wlis agvistoSi gaaforma, TurqeTs da azerbaijans aval-debulebs maTgan romelimes winaaRmdeg samxedro Tavdasxmis SemTxvevaSi erTmaneTs mxari dauWiron „yvela SesaZleblobis gamoyenebiT“.47

ankara Tanmimdevrulad uWers mxars azerbaijans yarabaRis konfliqtSi. garda diplomatiuri mxardaWerisa, ankaras gacemuli aqvs faqtobrivi usafrTxoebis garantiebi48 azerbaijanis mowyvladi naxiCevanis regionisTvis, romelic qveynis ZiriTadi nawilisgan gancalkevebulia somxeTis teri-toriiT.

* * *

TurqeTis axali energiuli sagareo politika ar Semoifargleba mxolod samezobloTi. Cveni naSromis farg-lebs gareT rCeba TurqeTis interesebi centralur aziaSi, politikuri ritorika CineTis sinZianis regionSi mcxovrebi uiRurebis mxardasaWerad, urTierToba avRaneTTan da pakis-tanTan, kavSirebis ganviTareba afrikis da laTinuri ameri-kis qveynebTan da Tanamedrove msoflioSi TurqeTis mxridan sakuTari interesebis gatarebis Zalisxmevis sxva gamovline-bebi.

rogor unda gavigoT TurqeTis strategia

didi saxelmwifos (great power) sakvanZo maxasiaTebeli aris misi Zalisxmeva Camoayalibos sakuTari realoba, garkveu-li saxis wesrigi, romlis centrSic Tavad es saxelmwifoa. geografiulad amgvari wesrigi SeiZleba moicavdes mxo lod erT regions, rogorc iyo, magaliTad, avstria-ungreTis SemTxvevaSi, an mTel msoflios, rogorc iyo britaneTis im-periis da dResac aris amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis Sem-TxvevaSi. Tumca geografiuli masStabis miuxedavad, amgvari saxelmwifos qcevis ganmsazRvrel komponents warmoadgens Za lis xmeva, rom msoflios romeliRac nawilis organizeba ise moaxdinos, rogorc Tavad miiCnevs saWirod.

imisTvis, rom kargad gavigoT TurqeTis sagareo poli-tika, unda gaviazroT kardinaluri gansxvaveba Tanamedrove saqarTvelos da Tanamedrove TurqeTis msoflmxedvelobebs

Soris: saqarTvelos surs iyos im realobis nawili, romelic amerikis SeerTebulma Statebma da evropulma saxelmwifoeb-ma Seqmnes meore msoflio omSi da civ omSi gamarjvebis Sem-deg. swored es aris namdvili arsi imisa, rasac Cven oficial-urad vuwodebT „saqarTvelos evropul da evroatlantikur integracias“. qarTvelebs es gvinda imitom, rom am sistemaSi sruli gawevrianeba migvaCnia Cveni usafrTxoebisa da keTil-dReobis uzrunvelyofis saukeTeso gzad.

iyo dro, rodesac TurqeTsac akmayofilebda mx-olod am realobis nawilad yofna. dRes amgvari viTareba ukve warsulia da naklebad savaraudoa axlo momavalSi aR-dges. Tanamedrove TurqeTs ar surs iyos ubralod sxvisi realobis nawili. amis nacvlad mas unda Camoayalibos saku-Tari rea loba, romlis birTvic Tavad iqneba _ islamuri an, ufro zustad, sunituri samyaros birTvi, Turqulenovani samyarosi, im teritoriebis, sadac SenarCunebulia osmaluri memkvid reoba, „muslimTa saZmosTan“ dakavSirebuli saerTa-Soriso ideologiuri qselis. mimarTulebebi da narative-bi gansxvavdeba, magram yoveli maTganis mixedviT TurqeTi aris centri raRac ufro farTosi, vidre msoflios rukaze naCvenebi misi saxelmwifo sazRvrebia.

TurqeTis ekonomikuri da samxedro SesaZleblobebi ufro mcirea, vidre yvelaze msxvili Tanamedrove saxelm-wifoebisa. magram Turquli sagareo ambiciebi realuria, faqtebi ki miuTiTebs, rom TurqeTis erovnuli resursi imis-Tvis mainc aris sakmarisi, rom man gaagrZelos am ambiciebis realizebaze mimarTuli mudmivi Zalisxmeva.

SesaZloa, TurqeTma am ZalisxmeviT warmatebas ver miaR wios, magram is amas cdilobs da es mcdeloba gagrZelde-ba, Tuki TurqeTSi Zalian mZime Sidapolitikuri kataklizmi ar moxda. TurqeTi uaxloesi aTwleulebis manZilze iqneba sakvanZo geostrategiuli moTamaSe planetis ramdenime regi-onSi, maT Soris _ samxreT kavkasiaSi. umjobesi iqneba, Tu yvela dainteresebuli mxare TurqeTs Sexedavs ise, rogorc is Tavad uyurebs sakuTar Tavs _ damoukidebeli miznebis mqo ne saxelmwifos, romelsac aqvs Zlierad gamoxatuli da Tanmimdevruli geostrategiuli xedva da materialuri SesaZ leblobebi am xedvis mixedviT imoqmedos.

SeniSvnebi

1. am diskursis magaliTisaTvis ix.: Barry Rubin and Kemal Kirisci (eds.), Turkey in World Politics: An Emerging Multiregional Power, 2001

2. Tulin Daloglu, “Davutoglu Invokes Ottomanism as New Mideast Order,” Al-Monitor, 10 March 2013, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/turkey-davutologu-ottoman-new-order-mideast.html (nanaxia 14 maiss, 2017)

3. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 11, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

4. Ayla Albayrak, “Turkey’s Erdogan Makes Victory Speech: The Breakdown,” Wall Street Journal, 11 August 2014, www.blogs.wsj.com/middleeast/2014/08/11/turkeys-erdo-gan-makes-victory-speech-the-breakdown/ (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

5. “Turkey Agrees to Plans for Arab ‘Free Trade Zone,’“ BBC, 10 June 2010, www.bbc.com/news/10290025 (nanaxia 14 maiss, 2017)

6. ufro detalurad ix.: Can Kasapoglu and Soner Cagaptay, Turkey’s Military Pres-ence in Iraq: A Complex Strategic Deterrent, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 22 December 2015, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkeys-mili-tary-presence-in-iraq-a-complex-strategic-deterrent (nanaxia: 17 maisi 2017)

7. Stephen Kalin, “Dispute over Turkish Troops Throws Future of Mosul into Question,” Reuters, 7 January 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-turkey-idUSKBN0UL1DF20160107 (nanaxia 16 maiss, 2017); Can Kasapoglu and Soner Cagaptay, Turkey’s Military Presence in Iraq: A Complex Strategic Deterrent, Washing-ton Institute for Near East Policy, 22 December 2015, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkeys-military-presence-in-iraq-a-complex-strategic-deterrent (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

8. Wilson Fache, “What is the Turkish Army Really Doing in Iraq?,” Al-Monitor, 6 Septem-ber 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/turkey-iraq-what-turkish-army-doing-in-mosul.html (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

9. “Turkish Military to Have a Base in Iraq’s Mosul,” Hurriyet Daily News, 5 December 2015, www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-military-to-have-a-base-in-iraqs-mosul.aspx?pageID=238&nID=92113&NewsCatID=352 (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017); Wilson Fache, “What is the Turkish Army Really Doing in Iraq?,” Al-Monitor, 6 September 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/turkey-iraq-what-turkish-army-doing-in-mosul.html (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

10. Maher Chmaytelli and Tuvan Gumrukcu, “Baghdad Bridles at Turkey’s Military Pres-ence, Warns of ‘Regional War,’” Reuters, 5 October 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-turkey-idUSKCN1250H9 (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

11. Birce Bora, “Analysis: What is Turkey Trying to Achieve in Iraq?,” Al Jazeera, 13 Oc-tober 2016, www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/analysis-turkey-achieve-iraq-1610 13032856045.html (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

12. “Ankara Joins Air Raids on Mosul as Iraqis Protest Turkish Role,” Middle East Eye, 18 October 2016, www.middleeasteye.net/news/ankara-joins-air-operation-take-mosul-iraqis-protest-against-turkish-role-1106417056 (nanaxia 18 maiss, 2017)

13. Saverio Leopardi, Decrypting Erdogan’s Palestine Policy, Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey (Research Turkey), 7 December 2016, www.researchturkey.org/decrypting-erdogans-palestine-policy/ (nanaxia 20 maiss, 2017)

14. Fadi Shafei, “Turkish Products Break Egyptian Monopoly over Gazan Markets,” Al-Monitor, 1 February 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/gaza-mar-kets-turkey-imports-break-israel-siege.html (nanaxia 20 maiss, 2017)

15. Saverio Leopardi, Decrypting Erdogan’s Palestine Policy, Centre for Policy and Research on Turkey (Research Turkey), 7 December 2016, www.researchturkey.org/decrypting-erdogans-palestine-policy/ (nanaxia 20 maiss, 2017)

16. Adnan Abu Amer, “Some Gazans Fear Turkish Generosity May Come at High Price,” Al-Monitor, 7 April 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/turkey-projects-influence-gaza-interests-jobs.html (nanaxia 20 maiss, 2017)

17. Adnan Abu Amer, “Jordan, Turkey Compete to Woo Jerusalem,” Al-Monitor, 19 May 2016, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/fa/contents/articles/originals/2016/05/turkey-jor-dan-palestine-jerusalem-competition-influence.html (nanaxia 20 maiss, 2017)

18. Joe Hammoura, Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule: The Limited Role of Turkey in Lebanon, Middle East Institute for Research and Strategic Studies (MEIRSS), 10 April 2017, www.meirss.org/turkish-foreign-policy-under-the-akp-rule-the-limited-role-of-turkey-in-lebanon/ (nanaxia 18 maiss, 2017)

19. James E. Baldwin, “The Egyptian Coup Is a Warning to Turkey – But will Erdogan Lis-ten?,” The Guardian, 16 July 2013, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/16/egyptian-coup-warning-will-erdogan-listen (nanaxia 19 maiss, 2017)

20. Feyza Gumusluoglu, Why Qatar is Hosting a Turkish Military Base, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), 15 April 2016, www.agsiw.org/why-qatar-is-hosting-a-turkish-military-base/ (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

21. Michael Kaplan, “With Turkey-Israel Reconciliation Looming, Egypt Fears Turkish Influence in Gaza Strip,” International Business Times, 1 September 2016, www.ib-times.com/turkey-israel-reconciliation-looming-egypt-fears-turkish-influence-gaza-strip-2257299 (nanaxia 19 maiss, 2017)

22. Aaron Stein, “Turkey’s Proxy War in Libya,” War on the Rocks, 15 January 2015, waron-therocks.com/2015/01/turkeys-proxy-war-in-libya/ (nanaxia 21 maiss, 2017)

23. James E. Baldwin, “The Egyptian Coup Is a Warning to Turkey – But will Erdogan Lis-ten?,” The Guardian, 16 July 2013, www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/16/egyptian-coup-warning-will-erdogan-listen (nanaxia 19 maiss, 2017)

24. Feyza Gumusluoglu, Why Qatar is Hosting a Turkish Military Base, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), 15 April 2016, www.agsiw.org/why-qatar-is-hosting-a-turkish-military-base/ (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

25. Metin Gurcan, “Why Qatar and Turkey are Becoming an Item,” Al-Monitor, 13 March 2017, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/turkey-qatar-diversifying-its-int erests-risks.html (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

26. “Seeing Shared Threats, Turkey Sets up Military Base in Qatar,” Reuters, 28 April 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-turkey-military-idUSKCN0XP2IT (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

27. Turan Yilmaz, “Turkey, Qatar Agree on Details of Headquarters in Qatar,” Hurriyet Daily News, 8 May 2017 www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-qatar-agree-on-details-of-headquarters-in-qatar-.aspx?pageID=238&nID=112833&NewsCatID=352 (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

28. “Turkey Set to Build a Military Training Center in Somalia,” Today’s Zaman, 5 January 2016, xelmisawvdomia: AMISOM Daily Media Monitoring, 6 January 2016, www.somaliamediamonitoring.org/january-6-2016-morning-headlines/ (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

29. “Turkey Sets up First African Military Base in Somalia,” Daily Sabah, 30 September 2016, www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2016/09/30/turkey-sets-up-first-african-military-base-in-somalia, (nanaxia 22 maiss, 2017)

30. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 5-6, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

31. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 6, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/re-search_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

32. Yigal Schleifer, “Turkey’s Balkan Express Rolls On,” EurasiaNet, 14 March 2011, www.eurasianet.org/node/63065 (nanaxia 16 maiss, 2017)

33. Francisco de Borja Lasheras with Vessela Tcherneva and Fredrik Wesslau, Return to Instability: How Migration and Great Power Politics Threaten the Western Balkans, European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2016, gv. 10, www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

34. Francisco de Borja Lasheras with Vessela Tcherneva and Fredrik Wesslau, Return to Instability: How Migration and Great Power Politics Threaten the Western Balkans, European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2016, gv. 10, www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

35. Sefa Mutlu, “Turkish Students Start Learning Bosnian,” Anadolu Agency, 17 January 2017, www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/turkish-students-start-learning-bosnian-/729192 (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

36. Sofía Lopez Piqueres, Turkey in Bosnia and Herzegovina: By Fits and Starts. Soft Power and Public Diplomacy Alla Turca, College of Europe, January 2014, gv. 48, www.coleu-rope.eu/sites/default/files/research-paper/bm_lopez.pdf (nanaxia 17 maiss, 2017)

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38. Yavuz Baydar, “Erdogan: ‘Kosovo Is Turkey,’” Al-Monitor, 28 October 2013, www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/10/erdogan-kosovo-turkey.html (nanaxia 16 maiss, 2017))

39. Francisco de Borja Lasheras with Vessela Tcherneva and Fredrik Wesslau, Return to Instability: How Migration and Great Power Politics Threaten the Western Balkans, European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2016, gv. 10, www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

40. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 23, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

41. Francisco de Borja Lasheras with Vessela Tcherneva and Fredrik Wesslau, Return to Instability: How Migration and Great Power Politics Threaten the Western Balkans, European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2016, gv. 10, www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

42. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 25, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

43. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 26, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

44. Alida Vračić, Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP Research Paper), Stiftung Wis-senschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, December 2016, gv. 23, www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/research_papers/2016RP11_vcc.pdf (nanaxia 15 maiss, 2017)

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48. Shahin Abbasov, “Turkey Steps up Support for Strategic Azerbaijani Exclave of Na-khchivan,” EurasiaNet, 26 July 2010 www.eurasianet.org/node/61610 (nanaxia 24 maiss, 2017)