Feasibility Study 2slides 1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

1 Email:[email protected] - - - - 2 2 3 ) ( 4 3 1373 . 1378 . 1378 . . 1385 .5 ) ( . . : - - . .6 4 : 20 % : 80 % : 20 % : 60 %7 8 5 . . .9 10 6 ) ( 11 1 ) (12 7 ) ( : 100 : 50 : 5 ) 9 ( : 50 13 : !!! 14 8 : Undercapitalization ....15 ) ( ) ( 16 9 : ) ( ) ( 17 . / . . .18 10 ) MarketStudy ( ) TechnicalFeasibility ( ) Financial Analysis ( ) FinancialAnalysis ( ) EconomyAnalysis (19 ) ( 20 11 : ) ( ) (o o : : 21 : 22 12 : : 23 : ) ( ... : 24 13 : / ) B/C ( 25 : o o - o o o o o 26 14 : ...27 : 28 15 : ) ( .29 30 16 31 32 17 . o .o .o : 33 ) (34 18 ....35 ) ( 36 19 : MicrosoftWord : MicrosoftExcel : ) Word ( COMFAR COMFAR : MicrosoftPowerPoint : 37 : ) (.... !!!38 20 39 40 21 ) ( ) ( ) ( 41 ) ( ) ( ) ( 42 22 ) ( 43 ) ( .44 23 ) (45 46 24 47 ) ( 48 25 ) ( ) ( ) IntellectualProperty (49 ) ( PerfectCompetition MonopolisticCompetition 50 26 ) ( Oligopoly Monopoly Monopoly 51 52 27 ) Commodity ( ) BackwardIntegration ( 53 ) ForwardIntegration (54 28 ) ( . 55 ) ( SWOT 56 29 Market ShareQuality CostTimeli-nessNotesCompetitor1 15% H H MCompetitor2 25% L L H v. aggressiveCompetitor3 5% M M HCompetitor4 20% L L H qalit slipping57Competitor4 20% L L H quality slipping Competitor5 15% M M H 58 30 ) 3 5 ( ) ( .59 - ... . 5 60 31 61 ) ( ... . ....62 32 ) ( 63 ) ( ) ( .64 33 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (65 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (66 34 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( - ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (67 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (68 35 ) ( 69 ) ( ) ( 70 36 Online ) ( ) ( 71 ) ( . . 72 37 ) ( 73 74 38 75 ) ( : : 76 39 77 ) 2 4 ( 78 40 ) EXCEL SPSS (.... 79 Online . email web ) web email .(80 41 ) ( . . . . .81 . . . .82 42 ) ( . .83 ) ( : .... .84 43 85 B2C B2C B2B86 44 : ) ( 87 ) B2C ( ) Demographic ( - ) Socioeconomic :( ) 1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ... ) Psychographic :( . ) Behavioral :( ) . BenefitSegmentation ( ) UsageSegmentation ( ) LoyaltySegmentation (88 45 ) B2B ( StandardIndustrialClassification(SIC)89 ) ( ) ( / / ) ( 90 46 91 47 : 48 ) ( 95 ) ( . 96 49 ) / ( 97 98 50 99 ) SurveyForecasting ( ) ScenarioAnalysis (100 51 101 .102 52 Online l h ) Personalinhomesurvey ( ) Personalmallinterceptsurvey (103 ) ( ) ( ... 104 53 : B2C B2C . B2B 105 ) ( . .22 /) (S zno= . .106) (x k 54 107 . 1950 . .108 55 109 1 : ) 10 18 .(o 110 56 ) ( 2 : 1 3 : .111 ) / ( ) / ( 112 57 ) ( 113 : : 114 58 ) ( AutoregressiveMovingAverageModel(ARMA) AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA)115 ) ( ) ( 116 59 : St k k>1 .kx xs xksk t ttknn t t=+ = = 1101 k .117 :{ }tx :} ,..., , {2 1 kw w w11==knnw+ + +kx w x w x w x w s .1181 1 2 111...+ = ++ + + = = k t k t tnn t n tx w x w x w x w s 60 : : n : 119 ) ( { }ts { }tx .) ( ) 1 (1 1 10 0 + = + ==t t t t t ts x s s x sx so o o1 0 s so . .120o 61AutoregressiveMovingAverageModel(ARMA) ) MA ( . . ) X ( ARMA ) Xt( ARMA .121AutoregressiveMovingAverageModel(ARMA) ) ( Autoregressive(AR) MovingAverage(MA) ( ) ARMA(p,q) p AR q MA .122 62AutoregressiveMovingAverageModel(ARMA) ) ( AR :p MA := + + =it i t i tX c X1c +qX u ARMA :123=+ =ii t i t tX1c u c = = + + + =piqii t i i t i t tX c X1 1c u c x x xy x y xbbx a yi ii ii ii i i=+ = 2124x b y ai i = 63 ...125 ) ( =2 2) ( * ) () )( (i i i iy y n x x ny x y x nr r 0.2 . 0.2 0.4 . 0.4 0.7 . ) ( ) (i i i iy y n x x n 0.7 0.9 . 0.9 1 .126 64 ) ( : . B Bassf(t) .F(t) t .N(t) .) () ( 1) (t Nmqpt Ft f+ =p ) (q ) (m .127 ) () ( p 0.01 . q 0.3 0.5 . 65 129 66 ) ( 131 ) ( o o 132 67 : ) ( : . : . : .133 134 68 / / / 135 136 69 137 138 70 ) ( 139 ) ( 140 71 72 ) ( 73 : . . 74 ) - ( 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1800050 5,000 60 6,000 80 8,000 100 10,000 100 10,000 2400050 5,000 60 6,000 80 8,000 100 10,000 100 10,000 1800050 7,500 60 9,000 80 12,000 100 15,000 100 15,000 5 7 500 6 9 000 8 12 000 1 15 000 100 15 000 2400050 7,500 60 9,000 80 12,000 100 15,000 100 15,000 50 25,000 60 30,000 80 40,000 100 50,000 100 50,000 ) 270 300 ( 75 149 :1 - 2 - ) (3 - ) 0 100 0 10 ( .4 - ). (5 - 150 76 151 : ) ( ) ( ( : ...152 77 153 ) IndustrialDirectories ( ) .(154 78 : : ... : 155 : : .... ) ( 79 80 ) ( 159 1 - .2 2 - . : . . . 81 ) ( FOB CIF FOB CIF . . . ) ( X ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1 26.66 266,600 7.7 0.39 2,1552 3.25 32,500 44 2.20 1,5023 1 10,000 6.61 11.90 0.33 9524 1 10,000 0.30 0.53 0.01 435 1 10,000 74.27 133.69 3.71 10,6956 1 10,000 18.09 32.55 0.90 2,6047 1 10,000 5.02 9.04 0.25 7238 1 10,000 11.95 21.51 0.60 1,7219 0.056 560 90.00 4.50 5310 0.908 9,080 30.00 1.50 28611 76 760,000 0.15 0.01 120 12 1 10,000 40.00 2.00 42013 0.3 3,000 20.00 1.00 6314 1 10,000 20.00 1.00 21015 0.018 180 140.00 7.00 2616 0.17 1,667 25.00 1.25 4417 0.25 2,500 15.00 0.75 3918 1 10,000 15.00 0.75 158 21,814 2,181,371 82 ) ( 1 : x11x22 xi ixi+ i+11xnn11xnn1 2 ii+1 n-1n Pp1p2piPi+1Pn-1pni i i i 11 nn 11 == + == + =n n nnn n n n nnn n n np pPpxx x p x xpPx x p P x1 11 1 1 1....) 1 )( 1 ( 11[[==++== + === + =nkkni kkiii i i i ipPpxx x p x xpPpxx p x x x1121 1 1 2 111) 1 (1...) 1 (1[=+==ni kkiiipPpxx) 1 (11164 83 : :0.95 0.960.92 0.9 0.81 2 34 5P=1001658 . 0 9 . 0 92 . 0 96 . 0 95 . 01001= = x

165 2 : i 1-pixi+1 xi pipri1-pri = ... ) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) 1 )( 1 ( 12 2+ + + i i i i i i ip pr p p pr p p1 ) 1 () 1 ( 11...) ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1 )( 1 (2 2< = + + + =i ii iii i i i ipr ppr pppr p pr p p11) 1 ( 1+ =iii iixppr px166 84 : 1 2 3P=1000.910.7x110 0.1 0.30.10.9 1 = 29 . 011161001~ = x 2 = 3 =196 . 03 . 0 9 . 0 13 . 0 1= 96 . 0 1 9 . 01 167 3 : p43p32x1x2x3x4x5p12p23p34p45p243 32 1 12 2x p x p x + ==xj j =pij i j pij x5 x .4 45 52 24 3 34 44 43 2 23 3x p xx p x p xx p x p x=+ =+ =168 85 : x1x2x3x40.8 0.7 0.80.2P=10000.32 33 1 23 0 8 07 . 02 . 0 8 . 0x x xx xx x x+=+ =12501 = x2 3 43 . 0 8 . 0 x x x + =169 ) OPC ( ) FPC ( 86 ) (172 87 88 ) (176 89 = = 1 : ) ( :Pj: = E : ) (T : R : 1j: 178 90 = = j ) 1 (jj jjTRt PNo ==mjN N= jj1179 2 : : : 1 3 1 3 134000 . 2000 .[ [= = = =ni KKj Cj ijij ni KKjjijR TP tNPP) 1 ( ) 1 ( o o . 2 . . 180 1 1 5 902 5/1 5 903 2/1 0 90 91 3 : Pj: j tj: jTp: j = ) + ( Fj: : R : ) (N : TC: 181 n njjP t TP F TP P ST FRPP ' + ' + = ') ( ) ( ) ( ) () 1 ( oCj j j jCj jj j j jTP t TP FTTP P ST FN + = ' + == =) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1 1182 92 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (1 1 1500 18,0002 400T 1 03 300T 1 04 3 05 1 06 300T 1 07 300T 1 08 2 T 1 8 200T 1 09 200T 1 010 70T 1 011 300T 1 012 600T 1 0 18,000 184 93 ) ( . ) ( ) ( ) ( 186 94 187 1 - ) ( 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 95 . ) ( . . . . . 30 23 . ) ( . . 6 . 96 ) ( ( ) ( )1 1 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 01 3 1 . 22 1 6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 09 8 . 43 1 4 5 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 07 3 8 . 04 1 4 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 07 3 . 8 5 1 4 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 07 3 . 86 1 3 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 04 9 . 27 1 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 03 2 . 88 1 3 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 04 9 . 29 4 3 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 01 9 6 . 81 0 1 3 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 04 9 . 21 1 2 2 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 08 2 . 01 2 2 2 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 8 2 . 01 3 3 0 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 09 8 4 . 01 4 2 0 1 , 8 0 0 , 0 0 05 9 0 . 41 5 3 1 , 8 0 0 , 0 0 08 8 . 61 6 2 1 , 8 0 0 , 0 0 05 9 . 01 7 3 1 , 8 0 0 , 0 0 08 8 . 61 8 2 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 06 5 . 677 3,533 ) ) ( ConvertingMethod ( ) ) ( RoughedoutLayoutMethod ( ) SpaceStandardMethod ( ) ) ( RatioTrend&ProjectionMethod ( ) ) ( ProductionCenterMethod ( 97 98 ) ( ) ( / / 1 4 1 4000 02 600 03 5000 04 200 05 200 06 500 07 ... 100 0 7 ... 18 150 09 180 010 200 011 ) (... 0 11,130 0