GHG

VE

IA

Harold WardWilliam SpaceNicholas Bianco

In Order of Appearance:

October 30, 2003

(of Brown University)

Figure 4d: Contribution of Options to GHG Savings vs. Baseline in 2020 in Scenario: Consensus & Non-

Consensus

State Incentives for Fuel Economy9%

VMT-based Insurance8%

Renewable Portfolio Standard7%

Industrial Energy Efficiency7%

Fossil Energy Efficiency6%

Urban & Suburban Forestry5%

Upgrade Building Codes5%

Pay as You Throw4%

Non Industrial CHP3%

Elec Eff in Non-Res Facilities3%

Convert Cropland to Forestry3%

Compact Appliances3%

Transit Oriented Development5%

Resource Management Contracting5%

Increase Gas Tax3%

Open Space Protection4%

Industrial CHP4%

All Others5%

Fleet Fuel GHG Content3%

Bottle Bill1%Efficient Heating

2%

Fuel Switch Oil to Gas1%Building Shell Retrofits

1%

Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency1%

Fuel Efficiency Profile: Model Year 2001

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 38 48 64

Fuel Efficiency (mpg)

Vehicles Belonging

Average price: $23,836 - range: $9,390 - $170,779

Average Fuel efficiency: 22.45 mpgAtiyah Curmally and Kathleen Esposito

Registrations as of October 2002

Vehicle Sale Distribution By Class

9 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 38 48

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Vehicles Belonging

Fuel Efficiency

Vans

Station Wagons

Minivans

Large Cars

Pickup Trucks

SUVs

Midsize Cars

Small Cars

Data analysis and display by Atiyah Curmally and Kathleen Esposito

Model Year 2001, Registrations as of October 2002

-$3,000

-$2,000

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

2 4 6 8 10 12consumption in gallons per 100 miles

credit or surcharge amount

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

EPA Fuel Economy Rating (MPG)

Credit/Surcharge Amount ($)

EconomyNew Cars2 yrs old4 yrs old6 yrs old8 yrs old

Fuel Economy Based Feebate

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

2 4 6 8consumption (GP100M)

feebate amount ($)

Fuel Consumption Based Feebate

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

10 20 30 40 50

EPA Combined Economy (MPG)

Feeb

ate

Am

ou

nt

($)

Comparison: MPG versus GP100MRI Fleet Data for Model Year 2001 (collected by Atiyah Curmally and Kathleen Esposito)

MPG GP100M10 = 1015 = 6.720 = 5.025 = 4.030 = 3.335 = 2.940 = 2.545 = 2.250 = 2.0

GP100M MPG2 = 503 = 334 = 255 = 206 = 177 = 148 = 139 = 11

10 = 10

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Miles per Gallon

Number of Cars

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

Gallons per 100 Miles

Nmber of Cars

Feebate Calculator

Input bold green numbers ONLY

zero point(MPG) = 22 Read bold purple outputs

rate ($/GP100M) = $1,000 comb is weighted, harmonic average of city, hwy

revenue per purchase = $135.84 click in the cell below "consumption" for units options

net revenue collected = $7,632,164 GP100M means gallons per 100 miles

click at bottom for graph and more comparisons

EPA MPG consumption

examples ('03) city hwy comb gp100m feebate

Navigator 2WD 12 17 14 7.23 -$2,685Odyssey 18 25 21 4.86 -$310Taurus 2-V 20 28 23 4.36 $188Focus M-5/2-V 27 36 30 3.29 $1,258Prius 52 45 49 2.06 $2,488

fleet description (MY 2001 - details are below): other example 30 40 34 2.96 $1,587number of cars = 56,183 other example 20 30 24 4.25 $295average GP100M = 4.68 other example 10 20 13 7.75 -$3,205average MPG = 21.4

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

2 4 6 8consumption (GP100M)

feebate amount ($)

Feebate Amount ComparisonsHow Much Should the Feebate Be? Some Comparisons. Which are Helpful?

Enter Feebate Rate in $ per GP100M -> $1,000 22 MPG=$0

Nissan Pontiac Chevrolet GMCSentra Grand Am Trailblazer Yukon XL

MSRP $15,680 $22,100 $31,400 $43,084Fuel Economy (city/hwy) 28/36 20/29 15/21 13/17Combined Fuel Economy 31 23 17 15

Advertised Rebate* $1,500 $4,500 $2,000 $4,000Annual Fuel Cost (EPA) $751 $1,011 $1,367 $1,551Gas Tax (12,000 mi., RI) $180 $242 $328 $371Gas Tax (120,000, RI) $1,796 $2,421 $3,275 $3,712

Feebate Amount $1,320 $198 -$1,337 -$2,121Feebate (% of MSRP) 8% 1% 4% 5%Feebate/gal (120,000 mi.) +$0.34 +$0.04 -$0.19 -$0.27

*in Providence Journal (10/18) gas tax is $0.464/gal, including $0.184 (federal) and $0.28 (RI)

What Does it Take to Influence Consumer Behavior?

Opinion Survey Results

What does this mean for the Feebate Bill?: Opinion Poll Results

Regulation to make personal vehicles more efficient 455 48 145 1548

24

11

6

11

15

14

9

44

7

100 99

percent percent

Preferred Strategy for GHG Emission: Public Opinion Poll Results