Global Governance of Phosphorus: Why So Misunderstood and the Mammoth Policy Gap?

Arno Rosemarin PhDNelson Ekane PhD (cand)Stockholm Environment Institute

Sustainable Phosphorus SummitMontpellierSept 2, 2014

Phosphorus: extremes that can confuse

pollutant causing algal blooms that can kill fish

a component of explosives and pesticides

a food additive causing problems for kidney patients

an essential element for all life to exist – bones and teeth and all living cells, tissue and organs

a key fertilizer to grow food and animal feed

Little progress on P governance

Common perception: Food & fertilizer have no limits

EU’s mammoth agro-subsidy (1 billion Euros/wk) creates false security – now fragile

No government will lead the dialogue – increases in food prices a political nightmare

Industry has taken a very low profile UN is not pro-active No geopolitical crisis yet like 1972 oil Duncan Brown’s empty gas tank analogy still

prevails

Overview of the talk

What are the components of the P value chain requiring governance?

How do we govern other minerals? Where are we today on phosphorus

governance? Plotting a track ahead

P value chain – multiple components to govern

Rock phosphorus (apatite) Sulfuric acid - 5 parts

H2SO4 give 3 parts H3PO4

in the wet extraction process

Phosphorus products (MAP, DAP, SP, etc)

Agro and food system - soil, food and animal feed

Manure, excreta, solid waste

Sulphuric acid production

Few countries have both P and S, requiring equity agreements

Soil P retention potential

ISRIC, 2011

Soils vary and governance needs to be adapted

Phosphorus sustainability to be governed

Reduce Improved efficiency in mining and extraction Improved fertilizer use and technology Less consumption of meat and dairy products

Recycle Improved recycling of food production wastes,

sludge, manure, struvite, polonite, etc. Economic instruments and flexible fees

Large users pay more tax fees than smaller users

How do we manage other minerals?

Towards more sustainable governance of extracted materials

EU Raw Materials Initiative UNEP International Resource

Panel (3Rs) Intergovernmental Forum on

Mining, Minerals, Metals, and Sustainable Development (IGF)

EU-US-Japan - developing substitutes, recycling & raw material and product efficiency

IEA global energy cooperation

Existing models to increase data transparency and collaboration

Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) of the IEF, contribution to transparency on the oil & gas markets

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)

OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas

World Gold Council

UN independent study groups

create market transparency by providing data on production, consumption, trade, and prices & national policies eg environmental legislation Lead and Zinc (ILZSG) Copper (ICSG) Nickel (INSG)

Barriers to change

speculation & raw material cartels

national stockpiling state companies trade tariffs & quotas lack of transparency

revenue streams due diligence in

supply chains

Where are we today on phosphorus governance?

Data governance of P rock extraction still lacking

P Rock Reserves/Resources (USGS) No UN agency involved Open to influence (IFDC 2010 report)

Fertilizer production and consumption (FAOstat)

Commercial sources of data (IFA, CRU, etc.)

Prior to 2010 USGS P-rock data showed peak P

possible in 30-40 years IFDC 2010 report squelched peak

phosphorus debate andMorocco “gets” global monopoly status

USGS changed its way of estimating commercial P reserves; resources can be commercial reserves

UNEP showed interest in the peak phosphorus debate but backed off

What happened since 2010 IFDC report heavily criticized

by Dutch researchers in 2013 EU Sustainable Phosphorus

Platform launched Interest in recycling P has

intensified P on the EU Critical Raw

Materials List Moroccan OCP expanding

rapidly now in order to meet future global demand

Geopolitics causing price hikes in phosphorus

Oil price increases due to conflicts (1973/2008)

China export embargo P cartels Northern Africa

Morocco-Algeria conflicts

Arab Awakening Preferential free trade

agreements with Morocco – eg US, India, EU

P-Rock since 1960, World Bank

Terrorism in N Africa and the Sahel

The track ahead White paper on phosphorus

Building on the GPRI Blueprint for Global Phosphorus Security

Global conference and Global convention Transparency on data regarding P-rock extraction and

trade Independent monitoring agency National reporting systems on use and reuse Best practices optimizing reuse Economic instruments promoting reuse & taxing waste Linkage to global food security strategies Communications programme

Stockholm Environment Institutewww.sei-international.org