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Guiana Shield x
Calha Norte Paraense
Highlights of Guiana Shield
• Is an eco-region with:
• Quarter of the world’s remaining tropical forests
• The lowest density of human population of any tropical rainforest area
• High forest low deforestation region
• Has relatively little historical deforestation.
97 millions ha
Protected Areas
32 millions ha
Protected Areas
22 millones ha
Protected Areas
Conservation Units of Calha Norte
• Flota do Paru = 3,6 millions ha
• Flota do Trombetas = 3,2 millions ha
• Flota de Faro = 0,61 million ha
• Esec Grão-Pará = 4,2 millions ha
• Rebio Maicuru = 1,2 million ha
2007 2008 2009 2010
Detalhamento MZEE Estudos técnicos
Consultas públicas Criação
Termo de cooperação técnica Consórcio Calha Norte
Início planos de manejo
Levantamentos de campo
MZEE
Conselhos consultivos Roteiro metodológico
Oficinas
Conclusão dos planos Estudos Esec e Rebio
Estudo potencial econômico Estudo REDD
Publicação PM Paru
Timeline
2005 2006 2011 -2014
Publicação dos PMs Implementação
dos PM
Crieation
Developing of Management Plans
Implementation
SAPEG
• about 100 participants
• Local managers of Protected Areas, communities representatives, municipalities and partner organizations with active role in the territory;
• Interaction, integration, and sharing experiences to obtain a full land management of Protected Areas
Support
Priscilla Miranda, Stefano Crema, Amintas Brandão Jr., and Lisa Famolare
Regional Workshop on REDD+ MRV Implementation and driver / December 2013
Modeling Regional Scenarios for the Guiana Shield
Support
However, an increase in socio-economic activities such as the
construction of new roads and mining projects, are threatening
increase the deforestation rate.
It is vital to reach a balance between socio-economic development
and sustainable land use practices.
This study focuses on the development of models for future land-use
trends in the Guiana Shield under business-as-usual and high
pressure scenarios. The analysis was performed using the Land
Change Modeler tool within the IDRISI software.
Support
Study Area
The study was developed in an area of 1,040,860 km2.
This area encompasses Guyana, Suriname, French Guyana, and Brazil.
Support
Data gathering
• Gather at least two historical landuse maps for each country
• Develop an unique classification scheme for the project from landuse maps
• Each landuse map contains the following classes:
• Forest
• Non-forest
• Water
• Clouds
• Other
• Develop and test a series of potential drivers of deforestation
• Accessibility to markets
• Elevation
• Proximity to roads
• Proximity to mining
• Forest concessions
• Convert all data to IDRISI format to be used on the Land Change Modeler
module within the IDRISI GIS software
Support
Development of Baselines
• Analysis of at least two historical landuse maps to
assess historical changes
• Empirically model landcover change from Forest to
Non-forest
• Incorporate the variables that explain the process of
landcover change
• If a third image is available model a third date to
compare the result with a the known third date
• The validation process allows for a better calibration of
the model
• A successful model will demonstrate that areas that
changed from Forest to Non-forest are the same areas
that actually changed.
Support
Development of Baselines – Drivers of Change
Distance to Rivers – Suriname Distance to Amerindian areas – Guyana
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Development of Baselines – Transition Potential
Transition Potential – Brazil Transition Potential – Guyana
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Historical Change - Guyana Between 1990 and 2010 a total of 615.08 km² of forest was deforestation
Land cover map (1990) Land cover map (2010)
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Historical Change - Suriname
Between 1990 and 2010 a total of 385.85 km² of forest was deforestation
Land cover map (2000) Land cover map (2009)
Support
Historical Change - Brazil
Between 2000 and 2009 a total of 8,256.00 km² of forest was deforestation
Land cover map (2000) Land cover map (2009)
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios
• Two scenarios are presented here
1. Business-as-usual scenario
It uses the historical rate in the projection
2. High pressure scenario
It uses the historical rate for Brazil
(3.15%/year) for the whole study area
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
GUYANA
• A total of 14 variables were included in the model.
• These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation
occurrence between 1990 - 2010
Distance to median-scale mining Distance to agricultural areas
Distance to secondary roads Elevation
Histogram – (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
GUYANA
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
SURINAME
• A total of 13 variables were included in the model.
• These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation
occurrence between 2000 - 2009
Distance to protected areas Distance to medium rivers
Distance to indigenous land Elevation
Histogram – (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
SURINAME
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
BRAZIL
• A total of 12variables were included in the model.
• These variables mimics the conditions of deforestation
occurrence between 2000 - 2009
Distance to large cities Distance to conservation units
Distance to unprotected areas Elevation
Histogram – (X-axis: variable value; Y-axis: frequency of change)
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – Business-as-usual
BRAZIL
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
Business-as-usual Scenario
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – High Pressure Scenario
GUYANA
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – High Pressure Scenario
SURINAME
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
Future Deforestation Scenarios – High Pressure Scenario
BRAZIL
Soft Prediction Hard Prediction
Support
High Pressure Scenario
Support
Conclusion
These results can be incorporated with
information on different ecosystem services
to better understand the impact that each
scenario has on; biodiversity, carbon, water
resources, etc.
Planos de Manejo
Conselhos Consultivos (parceria com o Imaflora)
Elaboração do Guia Formação dos Conselhos - Flota Faro: 14 conselheiros - Flota do Trombetas: 18 conselheiros - Flota do Paru: 24 conselheiros Capacitação dos Conselhos Elaboração do Regimento Interno
Roteiro Metodológico Este Roteiro foi o resultado de uma construção coletiva, através de fóruns de discussões, com especialistas da GTZ, CI-Brasil, Imazon e Sema - Diap. Apresenta as etapas e os passos necessários para a elaboração dos Planos de Manejo das Unidades de Conservação Paraenses. Foi publicado em setembro de 2009, no IX Congresso Brasileiro de Áreas Protegidas.
Estudo do Potencial Econômico das Flotas da Calha Norte
A exploração de madeira e a coleta de castanha-do-brasil podem gerar R$ 4,4 bilhões ao longo de 20 anos (2011-2030). Essas atividades podem gerar 8.986 empregos diretos e indiretos a partir de 2013. Os governos federal, estadual e municipal poderão arrecadar R$ 887 milhões, ao longo desse período.
