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Page 1: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

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Page 27: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

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2009

35

. 2008

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Page 38: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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Page 39: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

37

, , , / 1

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2009

38

- 2009

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Page 41: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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Page 42: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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Page 43: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

41

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Page 44: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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/1975/

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Page 45: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

43

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Page 46: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

44

2008 ,

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Page 47: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

45

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2009

46

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2009

47

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Page 50: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

48

2001 1991

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Page 51: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

49

: : : 1:11.6:1.4:6.1 .

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40 .

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2009

50

. “ ”

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, ,

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, ... . . \ 1990 \ .

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Page 53: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

51

, , , ,

5 18 414 .

5 3- . 1-76-

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2247 2 591

Rich Harris .

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.

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,

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Page 54: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

52

.

591

.

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.

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multiply survey 4 -

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2009

53

- 254.32 2

.

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2009

54

2004

: : : 1.2:3.8:1:1.7 .

/13- /.

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3430 2 8972

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2009

55

, , , , , ,

o

1:500,000 .

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2001 8%-

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.

, .

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2009

56

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2007 217255

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Page 59: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

57

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Page 60: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

58

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Page 61: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

59

. .

80%-

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216

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.

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Page 62: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

60

17- . , 2009

9- .

1 1992 3000 5000

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2009

61

2001

.

Richard Harris- .

3172,6 ² .

2 10 11 183 .

multiply survey 4 -

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251,2 ² 272 .

3172,6 ² [=3172,6*272/(2*3,14*4*10)] 2300±11

.

, ,

4 144 39

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22 15.3% .

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, , , ,

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1-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-

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9 51 24 36 49 259

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2009

62

,

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2009

63

.

1992 ,

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.

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2009

64

0.137 – 0.753), 12,162 2 1556 (95%- 1,666 - 9,158)

.

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Page 67: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

65

.

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2009

66

- :

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.

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2009

67

18- . -

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-

, , , 670 2 40

, , , ,

650 2 20 , ,

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780 2 200 , 6364 2 380

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2009

68

, , , ,

, 57 .

2009 ,

, - “ ” , , ,

, 16 83

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16 83 31 26 14 11

2 14, 3 13,

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.

258.28 2 14,

2057.57 2 13, , 597.59 2

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2007 2009

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2009

69

, , , ,

, .

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14 . 2007 25

2009 26 .

,

.

, .

14 - . ,

2001

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3 (21.4%)

, (35.7%) , 6 (42.9%) .

,

1: 5.8 .

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2009

70

-

. , . 2007 -

4.597 484±24

. 2001

27.3%- .

1-13- ( x =5.2, SD = 3.4). 83

, 38 , 20 , 16 , 9 .

(> 2 ) ,

.

2 (hazard rate key function with a maximum of 2

cosine adjustments, half-normal key function with maximum of 2 cosine adjustments)

, .

1,236 (SE = 282m)

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2009 , 2001

.

-

.

3900 .

.

.

- 6449,7 ² .

2 11 11 50

.

- multiply survey 4 -

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.

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2009

71

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2009

72

, , , , , , -

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2009

73

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Page 76: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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2009 32 328 129 77 38 17 54

2007 6 241 23 99 90 29

2007 241 23 (9.5%) , 99 (41%)

, 90 (37.3) , 29 (12.2%) 2009

32 328 , 129 (39.3%),

77 (23.4%), 38 (11.5%), 17 (5.1%) .

2007 2009 ,

. , 2007

2009 16 .

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Page 77: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

75

4913 (95%- 2,372 - 10,180)

.

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Page 78: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

76

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(2001 ). ,

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Page 79: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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Page 80: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

78

(2001 ).

.

,

(2001 )

, .

(20- ).

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1<5 6 ( 40,0%)

18 ( 12,6%), 6<10

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, ,

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Page 81: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

79

14.0% , 32 22.4% , 2 1.4%

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444-927,

572 .

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Page 82: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

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.

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Page 83: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

81

.

, (22- ).

2568.9 2 330

100 - 1.3 .

22- .

3 12 , 2 ,

2 .

.

31 23-

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1-41). 112 .

17 102 . 23 11-

. 1- 22- ( x = 4.6, SD = 4.7).

Page 84: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

82

66 , 41 , 15 , 3 , 7

. (> 2 )

, .

half-

normal key function with maximum of 2 cosine adjustments

1,006 (SE = 140 ).

0.275 / 2 (95% 0.137 – 0.555),

2,404 2 2,123 (95% 1,198 - 4,852)

.

2001

14 9937 2 3044

6.1% , , , , 4.8%

, , , , 3.2%

, , , .

- 473 2 60 ,

, 316 2 50 , - ,

481 2 140 , 570 2 110 , , 348 2

90 , , 86,0 2

50 , , , ,

1792 2 1150 , - 42 2 20 , , , 1395 2 280 , , , 1040 2

460 , 629 2

210 ( 2001).

2007

8890.77 2 956

, 1000 - 1.06

.

4945.8 2 2018

, 1000 - 4.08

( 2007).

Page 85: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

83

10- , 683 2

.

2007 100 , 553 2008

48 192 , 108 743

.

-

.

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251 (

) . ,

11 175 , 77

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G-10 9 32 , 23

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28 12 , 3 , 5 , 8

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Page 86: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

84

4 23 5.75

.

.

. 9 35 , .

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55 , 15 , 10 , 20

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33 13 , 8 , 7 , 5 .

Page 87: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

85

40 , 24 , 21

, 15 . 2.66:1

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2007 , ,

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Page 88: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

86

. , .

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Page 89: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

87

7 25 .

.

23- .

. , ,

.

2001, 2007

,

. 2001 9937 2

4044

.

25 14 56% , 7 28%

, 4 16% .

, , ,

.

,

, (568,48 2), (113,65 2) . ,

, , ,

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.

Page 90: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

88

24 4 17% , 11 46% , 1

4% , 6 25% 2 8%-

.

.

24- .

,

1990- . , .

1995 1000 - 5,7 , 0,8 , 1996

1000 - 6,4 , 1,2 .

1995 2977, 1996 3333 , 1997

3250±1071 3000-3300

(Reading R.P 1997).

2001

14 9937 2 3044

1000 - 3.1 ( . 2001).

2007

8890.77 2 956

1000 - 1.06

. 4945.8 2 2018

, 1000 - 4.08

( 2007).

Page 91: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

89

31 23-

8,743 2 80.8% . 194 (

1-41). 112 .

17 102 . 23 11-

. 1-22- ( x = 4.6, SD = 4.7). 66

, 41 , 15 , 3 , 7

. (> 2 )

, .

.

half-normal key function with maximum of 2 cosine adjustments

1,006 (SE

= 140 ). 0.275 / 2 (95% 0.137 –

0.555), 2404 (95% 1,198 - 4,852)

.

13 6

. 249 109- , 78 , 6 , 2

, 23 . 52 (190 ) distance

. 2 (hazard rate key function

with a maximum of 2 cosine adjustments, half-normal key function with maximum of 2

cosine adjustments) 530

(SE = 682 ). 1.524 / 2 (95%

0.877 – 2.65), 12,162 2

13324 (95% CI 7,671 - 23,169)

.

Page 92: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

90

16- .

2000- 3000

2001 2007

. , ,

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. 2009 2404

, . 2007

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.

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.

, .

Page 93: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

91

,

.

( X = 530 )

.

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.

Page 94: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

92

.

1401 2 24 21-

11 .

25- .

72 . 19 142 .

1-17- ( x = 7.5, SD =4.6). 142 ,

84 , 26 , 7 , 25 .

half-normal key function

with maximum of 2 cosine adjustments

894 (SE = 1160 ).

0.595 / 2 (95% 0.298 – 1.188), 1,401 2 834

(95% 417 - 1,664) .

1

11 ( ) .

, .

Page 95: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

93

26- .

2009 10- 6- 57 , 10-

8- 11 .

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. 2009 11 . - ,

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Page 96: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

94

,

.

- - , , ,

, , , ,

,

.

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46 293

20 (8%) , 176 (75,%) , 3(1%) , 37 (16%)

. 2-12

2007 2009

0,6%- 1,2%, 11,2%, 1,8%- .

: : : 6,7:58,7:1:12,3 .

1,7% .

98,3 .

- 58,7:1

.

Page 97: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

95

, :

2007 1.6:1 2009 4.8:1 .

,

,

, , .

2001

, 410 2 100 ,

186 2 20 , ,

410 2 110 , 886 2

10 , , , , ,

, , 957 2 200 ,

, 421 2 60 ,

342 2 20 , - 155 2

30 , 157 2 20 ,

, 126 2 110

, 3924 2 850 .

21 18- (

4,439 km2 96%). 108 6 . 90

( 2-9) . 49

. 46 293 . 1-27-

( x = 6.2, SD =5.9). 236 ,

176 , 20 , 3 , 37 .

half-normal

key function with maximum of 2 cosine adjustments

619 (SE = 1370 ).

1.084 / 2 (95% 0.339 – 3.471), 4,439 2

2330 .

2007 2001 1,5%-

2009 2007 0,7%- .

2007 2001 1,3%- , 2009 2007 30,6%-

.

Page 98: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

96

.

4800

.

.

.

1723,5 ² .

46 58 293

.

49 multiply survey

.

line transect 108

, 2 -

216 ² .

216 ² 293 .

1723,5 ² [=1723,5*293/216] 2338

.

5 1564.7 2

.

, ,

, , ,

.

Page 99: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

97

28- . , 2009

,

. ,

, - , ,

, , ,

14 75 .

.

7

,

10 (28,6%) , 16 (45,7%) , 2 (5,7%) ,

32 (20%) .

: : : 5:8:1:3,2 . :

8:1 . :

8:3,2 43,8%- . , ,

,

. 2007 2665.4 2

. 2009 21 6- .

1-20- ( x = 5.3, SD =5.1). 35 ,

16 , 10 , 2 , 7 .

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2009

98

half-normal key function with maximum

of 2 cosine adjustments

703 (SE = 65 ).

0.634 / 2 (95%

0.2889 – 1.392), 4439 2 1520 (95%

1,278 - 6,179) .

. :

1.

2. ,

,

3. ,

,

4. ,

5.

.

5 (310, 75, 6, 5,35) , 1 6 , 4 , 1

.

Distance sampling

, .

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K.

.

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, (10- ), (10

), (60-70 ), , , (3-4),

Page 101: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

99

(15 ), , , , (100

), (10), , , (20 ),

, , , , , ,

, , , , , ,

, , , ,

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9825,4 2 (29- ).

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.

1-32

. 1-5 (14 ) 41,2%-

. 1-10 70,6%- . 15-

, 17- .

15- .

% % 1- 5 14 36 41.2 11.0 6- 10 10 80 29.4 24.4 11- 15 2 24 5.9 7.3 16-20 3 55 8.8 16.8 21-25 2 44 5.9 13.4 25-30 2 57 5.9 17.4 31-35 1 32 2.9 9.8

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2009

100

17- .

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

1- 5 6- 10 11- 15 16-20 21-25 25-30 31-35

% %

, 1- 22

(..- , ..- ). 1-5 (49)

69,0%- . 1-10 87,3%-

63,8% .

16- .

% % 1- 5 49 143 69.01 38.34 6- 10 13 95 18.31 25.47 11- 15 6 78 8.45 20.91 16-20 2 35 2.82 9.38 21-25 1 22 1.41 5.90

71 373 100.00 100.00 14.20 74.60 20.00 20.00

SE 8.95 21.73 12.61 5.82

18- .

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2009

101

, .

, , 34 328

. 282

86.6% .

: : : 23,4: 69,9: 3,2: 3,5 .

67 .

, 841 -3,561, 4

2050 .

.

. 324 .

~ 121 32

189 . DISTANCE 1.63

/ 2 (95% 0.59 – 3.29) , 539 (95%

196-1,082) .

– 467 .

24-98, 58.1 . 4

19-223-

91.4 . 25 8

(7 , 1 ) ( 12 ). 7 .

461 (95%- 278 – 643), 191 (95%-

81 – 379), 652 (%- 359-1,022) 779

(95%- 269 – 1,289), 268 (95%-

5 – 820), 1,047 (%- 274 – 2,109)

.

( ) 2773 .

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2009

102

29- .

,

, , -

.

- 2009 9, 10, 11-

.

98 941 . 1-5

35,7%- , 1-10 66,39-

. 10-

.

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2009

103

16- . -

% % 1- 5 35 119 35.71 12.65 6- 10 30 230 30.61 24.44 11- 15 15 194 15.31 20.62 16-20 9 161 9.18 17.11 21-25 5 109 5.10 11.58 26-30 2 55 2 6 31-35 0 0 0 0 36-40 2 73 2 8

98 941 100 100 12.25 117.63 12.50 12.50

SE 4.75 26.78 4.85 2.85

19- .

6 22

, .

,

. -

2000 .

2009 9, 10, 11-

. 3

: : : 26,9: 41,8:

12,6: 18,7 (20- ).

Page 106: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

104

20- . -

100 ,

10 ,

10 , 120

.

30- .

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2009

105

2008 12-

.

.

- .

.

, -

“ ”

10 .

.

, .

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GPS, .

,

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.

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. 2000 ,

2005

.

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3 1000- .

2 ,

.

Page 108: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

106

.

.

.

. , New Juulchin tour

1 .

( ) .

2005

( - ) 4

.

.

.

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.

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.

.

.

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1976 , 2 100

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Page 109: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

107

19 140 . 139

. : : :

18,7:56,8:2,9:21,6 .

17- .

100 5,1 38,0

.

.

.

.

.

. .

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.

Page 110: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

108

, , , ,

14 682,5 2 180

.

31- .

.

3 135 5 , 23

. , .

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27 . 7

, 40

.

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1389 2 36-61 2

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.

Page 111: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

109

32- .

3 22 .

100 - 7

1335 2 1330

.

33- . .

Page 112: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

110

,

2009 10 18,14 (95

%- 9,193 -43,135) , 36,0 (95 %-

13,840-43,8739) . ,

.

.

,

.

-

.

(

,

).

, .

- (2- ). ,

, ,

, ~ 330 2 , ,

distance sampling

- 2 . 120

189 DISTANCE

539 35%

4

- 1047 652

21%, 34%

223 .

2009

.

.

. ,

. , ,

Page 113: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

111

.

2001 , :

1) - .

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Page 114: H J G U M M E U G L M J M M L G U - World Bank...F h g ] h e h j g u m m e u g l m j m m l g u g ' ' p b c g g w e ] w w 2009 (

2009

112

5)

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