8/9/2019 Harstad DCCC HI-01 Poll

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TO: INTERESTED PARTIESFROM: PAUL HARSTAD AND MIKE KULISHECKDATE: APRIL 27,2010RE: NEW SURVEY IN HAWAIIS 1

STCDSHOWS CASE WITH CLEAR LEAD OVER HANABUSA

Our April 24 to 26 survey among 506 likely voters in Hawaiis 1st CD special election showsDemocrat Ed Case virtually tied with Republican Charles Djou, but leading on everydimension over Democrat Colleen Hanabusa.

While all three congressional candidates are equally known, Ed Case is easily the mostpopular, with an impressive feelings score of 63% favorable to 24% unfavorable. A 55%

majority of voters are favorable toward Charles Djou while 29% are unfavorable. AndColleen Hanabusa is polarizing with equal favorable (41%) and unfavorable (43%)feelings.

In the overall 3-way vote, Democrat Case (with 34%) is nearly tied with Republican Djou(36%) with Democrat Hanabusa a distant third (20%). However, among most likelyvoters, Djou has a modest lead of 39% to 31% over Case, with 20% for Hanabusca illustrating the vulnerability of losing this seat to the Republicans.

Even women prefer Case by 36% to 23% over Hanabusa, with 31% for Djou.

In a key leading indicator question, Hanabusa has alienated voters lately to a strikingextent: in the last few weeks 25% of voters say they are more likelyto support her while a58% majority are less likelyto support her (net minus -33%). For Case, the results are

42% more likely, 29% less likely (net plus +13%). And for Djou, it is 46% more likely and37% less likely (net plus +9%). This is a pivotal predictor of recent trends in voter opinionthat cannot be ignored.

Furthermore, all of the crucial projective questions in the survey point to Ed Case as thecandidate far better positioned to prevail over Djou in striking contrast with Hanabusa.

More voters choose Case as their second choice (40%) than either Hanabusa (21%) orDjou (15%) combined. Case is chosen overwhelmingly by both Hanabusa voters (Caseby 67% to 15% for Djou) and by Djou voters (Case by 73% to 9% for Hanabusa). ButCase voters opt for Hanabusa as their second choice by only 53% to 35% for Djou.

Indeed, in a series of hypothetical 2-way races, Case beats Djou by 47% to 39% andCase bests Hanabusa by 61% to 23%. But Djou beats Hanabusa by 48% to 38%.

Lastly, when non-Case voters were asked the chance they would support him in a 3-wayrace, his support could grow from 34% by another 21% who say there is a fair chancethey could support him for a total of 55%. Djou does nearly as well by expanding hisoriginal 36% by another possible 13% for a total of 49%. But Hanabusas potentialsupport is much more limited: besides her original 20%, another 16% say there is a fairchance they would support her for a total of just 36%.

The bottom line is that with a split-Democratic vote, this congressional is more likely than notto fall into Republican hands. Ed Case is the only candidate who can beat Charles Djou inthis multi-candidate special election in May.