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BOX 2.1Human security-as people see it

leads to a backlog of human deprivationpoverty, hunger, disease or persisting disparities between ethnic communities orbetween regions. This backlog in access topower and economic opportunities can leadto violence.

When people perceive threats to theirimmediate security, they often become lesstolerant, as the antiforeigner feelings and vi-olence in Europe show. Or, where peoplesee the basis of their livelihood erodesuch as their access towater-politicalconflict can ensue, as in parts of Central Asiaand the Arab States. Oppression and perceptions of injustice can also lead to violentprotest against authoritarianism, as inMyanmar and Zaire, where people despairof gradual change.

billion dollars invested in primary healthcare and family planning education couldhave helped contain the spread of thisdeadly disease. Human security is peopLe-centred. It isconcerned with how people live andbreathe in a society, how freely they exercisetheir many choices, how much access theyhave to market and social opportunitiesand whether they live in conflict or in peace.

Several analysts have attempted rigorous definitions of human security. But likeother fundamental concepts, such as human freedom, human security is more easily identified through its absence than itspresence. And most people instinctively understand what security means.

Nevertheless, it may be useful to have amore explicit definition. Human securitycan be said to have two main aspects. Itmeans, first, safety from such chronic threatsas hunger, disease and repression. And second, it means protection from sudden andhurtful disruptions in the patterns of dailylife-whether in homes, in jobs or in communities. Such threats can exist at all levelsof national income and development.

The loss of human security can be aslow, silent process--Qr an abrupt, loudemergency. It can be human-made-due towrong policy choices. It can stem from theforces of nature. Or it can be a combinationof both-as is often the case when environmental degradation leads to a natural disaster, followed by human tragedy.

In defining security, it is important thathuman security not be equated with humandevelopment. Human development is abroader concept-defined in previousHuman DeveLopment Reports as a process ofwidening the range of people's choices.Human security means that people can exercise these choices safely and freely-andthat they can be relativelyconfident that theopportunities they have today are not totally lost tomorrow.

There is, of course, a link between human security and human development:progress in one area enhances the chancesof progress in the other. But failure in onearea also heightens the risk of failure in theother, and history is replete with examples.

Failed or limited human development

NEW DTh-lENSIO SOF HUMAN ECURITY

How individuals regard security depends verymuch on their immediatecir-cumstances. Here are some views ofsecurity gathered from around theworld, through a special sample sUNeyby UNDP field offices.Pnmary schoolpupil in Kuwait"I feel secure because 1 am living withmy family and 1have friends. However,1did not feel secure during the Iraqi in-vasion. I f a country is at war, how arepeople supposed to feel secure?"Woman in Nigeria"My security is only in the name of theLordwho has made heaven and earth. 1feel secure because 1 am at liberty toworship whom1 like, how 1like, and al-so because 1 can pray for all the peopleand for peace all over the country."Fourth-grade schoolgirl in Ghana"I shall feel secure when 1 know that Ican walk the streets at night without being raped."Shoe-mender in ThatJand''Whenwe have enough for the childrento eat, we are happy andwe feel secure."Man in Namibia"Robberies make me feel insecure. 1sometimes feel as though even my lifewill be stolen."

Woman in Iran"I believe that a girl cannot feel secureuntil she is married and has someone todepend on."Publte administrator in Cameroon"Securityfor me means that my job andposition are safe and I can continue toprovide for the needs of my family andalso have something for investment andfriends."Woman in Kyrgyzstan"Human security indicates faith in tomorrow, not as much having to do withfood and clothing, as with stability of thepolitical and economic situation."Secondary school pupil in Mongola"Before, education in this country wastotally free, but from this year every student has to pay. Now 1 do not feel verysecure about finishing my studies."WOman in Paraguay"I feel secure because I feel fulfilled andhave confidence in myself. I also feel se-cure because God is great and watchesover me."Man in Ecuador"Whatmakes you feel insecure above allis violence and delinquency-aswell asinsecurity with respect to the police.Basic services are also an important partof security."

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The world willnever be securefrom war ifmenand women haveno security ill theirhomes and in theirjobs

24

Ensuringhuman securitydoes not meantaking away from people the responsibilityand opportunityfor mastering their lives. Tothe contrary, when people are insecure, theybecome a burden on society.

The concept of human security stressesthat people should be able to take care ofthemselves: all people should have the opportunity to meet theirmost essential needsand to earn their own living. This will setthem free and help ensure that they canmake a full contribution to developmenttheir own development and that of theircommunities, their countries and theworld,Human security is a critical ingredient ofparticipatory development.

Human security is therefore not a defensive concept-the way territorial or mil-itary security is. Instead, human security isan integrative concept. It acknowledges theuniversalism of life claims that was discussed in chapter 1. It is embedded in a notion of solidarity among people. It cannotbe brought about through force, witharmies standing against armies. It can happe n only i fwe agree that development mustinvolve all people.

Human security thus has many components. To clarify them, it helps to examinethem in detail.Components of human securityThere have always been two major components of human security: freedom from fearand freedom from want. This was recognized right from the beginning of theUnited Nations. Bu t later the concept wastilted in favour of the first componentrather than the second.

The founders of the United Nations,when considering security, always gaveequal weight to territories and to people. In1945, the US secretary of state reported tohis government on the results of the conference in San Francisco that set up theUnited Nations. H e was quite specific onthis point:The battle ofpeace has to be fought on two/ronts. The first is the security /ront where vic-tory spells/reedom/rom fear. The second is theeconomicand social/rontwhere victory means

/reedom /rom want. Only victory on both/ronts can assure the world of an enduringpeace,. ,,Noprovisions that can be written intothe Charterwillenable the Secun'ty Council tomake the world secure /rom war if men andwomen have no security in their homes andtheir jobs.It is now time to make a transition fromthe narrow concept of national security tothe all-encompassing concept of humansecurity.

People in rich nations seeksecurityfromthe threat of crime and drug wars in theirstreets, the spread of deadly diseases likeHN/AIDS, soil degradation, rising levels ofpollution, the fear of losing their jobs andmany other anxieties that emerge as thesocial fabric disintegrates. People in poornations demand liberation from the continuing threat of hunger, disease and povertywhile also facing the same problems thatthreaten industrial countries.

At the global level, human security nolonger means carefully constructed safeguards against the threat of a nuclear holoc a u s t - a likelihood greatly reduced by theend of the cold war. Instead, it means responding to the threat of global povertytravelling across international borders inthe form of drugs, HN/AIDS, climatechange, illegalmigration and terrorism. Theprospect of collective suicide through animpulsive resort to nuclear weapons was al-ways exaggerated. But the threat of globalpoverty affecting all human lives-in richnations and in p o o r - i s real and persistent.And there are no global safeguards againstthese real threats to human security.

The concept of security must thuschange urgently in two basic ways: From an exclusive stress on territorialsecurity to a much greater stress on people'ssecurity. Fromsecurity through armaments to security through sustainable human development.

The list of threats to human security islong, bu t most canbe considered under seven main categories: Economic security Food security Heal th security

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Environmental security Personal security Community security Political security.

security

conomic security requires an assuredsic income-usually from productive andemunerative work, or in the last resortom some publicly financed safety net. Butnly about a quarter of the world's peopleay at present be economically secure ins sense.Many people in the rich nations todayel insecure because jobs are increasinglyifficult to find and keep. In the past twocades, the number of jobs in industrialountries has increased at only half the ratef GDP growth and failed to keep paceith the growth in the labour force. By1993, more than 35 mil1ion people wereseeking work, and a high proportion wereomen.Young people are more likely to be un

employed: in the United States in 1992,youth unemployment reached 14%, in theUnited Kingdom 15%, in Italy 33% and inSpain 34%. Often, the unemployment ratealso varies with ethnic origin. In Canada,the unemployment rate among indigenouspeople is about 20%--twice that for otherCanadians. And in the United States, theunemployment rate for blacks is twice thatfor whites.Even those with jobs may feel insecureif the work is only temporary. In 1991 in

Finland, 13% of the employed were temporary workers, and the figures were evenhigher elsewhere-15% in Greece, 17% inPortugal, 20% in Australia and 32% inSpain. Some people do, of course, chooseto work on a temporary basis. But in Spain,Portugal, Greece, Belgium and theNetherlands, more than 60% of workers intemporary jobs accepted them because theycould not find full-time employment. Tohave work for everybody, industrial countries are experimenting with job-sharing.The problems are even greater in devel

oping countries, where open registered unemployment is commonly above 10%, andtotal unemployment probably way beyond

NEW DIME !SrO S OF HUMAN SECURI1Y

that. Again, this is a problem especially foryoung people: for youths in Africa in the1980s, the open unemployment rate wasabove 20%. And it is one of the main factors underlying political tensions and ethnicviolence in several countries. But unemployment figures understate the real scaleof the crisis since many of those working areseriously underemployed. Without the assurance of a social safety net, the poorestcannot survive even a short period withoutan income. Many of them, however, can relyon family or community support. Yet thatsystem is rapidly breakingdown. So, the unemployed must often accept any work theycan find, however unproductive or badlypaid.The most insecure working conditions

are usually in the informal sector, which hasa high proportion of total employment. In1991, it accounted for 30% of all jobs inLatin America and 60% of those in Africa.The global shift towards more "pre

carious" employment reflects changes inthe structure of industry. Manufacturingjobs have been disappearing, while manyofthe new opportunities are in the service sector, where employment is much more likelyto be temporary or part-time-and less protected by trade unions.For many people, the only option is selfemployment. But this can be even less secure than wage employment, and those atthe bottom of the ladder find it difficult tomake ends meet. In the rural areas, thepoorest farmers have little access to land,whose distribution can be gauged by theGini coefficient-a measure of inequalitythat ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1(absolute inequality). In Kenya, the Gini coefficient for land is 0.77, in Saudi Arabia0.83 and in Brazil 0.86. And even those whohave some land or know of productive investment opportunities often find it difficult to farm and invest effectively becausethey have little access to credit. This, despite the mounting evidence that the poorare creditworthy. In many developing countries, 40%of the people receive less than 1%of total credit.The shift to more precarious work has

been accompanied by increasing insecurityof incomes. Nominal wages have remained

Only about aquarter of theworld's people mayat present beeconomicallysecure

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F I ~ U R E 2.2 . . . Total unemplo edHigh unemployment In Industnal countnes yUnemployment rate (percent). 199218........ _.... . . ._-- .15 .. } . y ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ : d . : o r ~ than

Spain Ireland Finland Canada Denmark Australia Italy France UK USA

FIGURE 2.1Falling incomes threatenhuman security1991 GNP per capita as apercentage of 1980's100--

90 .... Mozambique

80 .... Ethiopia

.... Nigeria70 :::II Haiti, RwandaMadagascar60

.... Niger50 .... Nicaragua.... Cote d'lvOire40

ingful services. The disabled are, by andlarge, found among the poorest quarter ofthe population. And their unemploymentrate is as high as 84% in Mauritius and 46%in China.With incomes low and insecure, many

people have to look for more support fromtheir governments. But they often look invain. Most developing countries lack eventhe most rudimentary forms of social security, and budgetary problems in industrialcountries have unravelled social safetynets. In the United States between 1987and 1990, the real benefits per pensionerdeclined by 40%, and in Austria by 50%. InGermany, where maternity compensationhas already been cut to 25% of full pay, thegovernment decided that over the nextthree years unemployment and welfarepayments will be cut by some $45 billionthe largest cut in postwar German history.The result: increasing poverty. In both

the United States and the European Union,nearly 15% of the people live below thepoverty line. The incidence of povertyvaries with ethnic origin. In Germany, whilethe national average has been estimated at11%, the incidence of poverty amongforeign-born residents is 24%. But the mostacute problems are in the developing countries, where more than a third of the peoplelive below the poverty line-and more thanone billion people survive on a daily incomeof less than $1.

One of economic insecurity's severesteffects is homelessness. Nearly a quarter ofa million New Yorkers-more than 3% ofthe city's population and more than 8% ofits black children-have stayed in sheltersover the past five years. London has about400,000 registered homeless people.France has more than 500,000-nearly10,000 inParis.The situation is muchworsein developing countries. In Calcutta, Dhakaand Mexico City, more than 25% of thepeople constitute what is sometimes calleda "floating population".Figures 2.1 and 2.2 give selected indi

cators of economic insecurity. For industrial countries, these indicators refer to jobsecurity. But for developing countries, because of data limitations, the data refer only to income security.

.- --

..... ........ I......, ,

.---

-

1 -

.--

, -

stagnant, or risen only slowly, but inflationhas sharply eroded their value. Some ofthe worst examples of inflation in the1980s: Nicaragua 584%, Argentina 417%,Brazil 328% and Uganda 107%; and in the1990s: Ukraine 1,445%, Russian Federation 1,353% and Lithuania 1,194%.

As a result, real wages in many parts ofthe world have declined. In Latin Americain the 1980s, they fell by 20%, and in manyMrican countries during the same period,the value of the minimum wage droppedsharply-by 20% in Togo, 40% in Kenyaand 80% in Sierra Leone. Worse off arewomen-who typically receive wages30-40% lower than those ofmen for doingthe same jobs. In Japan and the Republic ofKorea, women in manufacturing jobs earnonly about half as much as men.Income insecurity has hit industrialcountries as well. In the European Union,44 million people (some 28% of the workforce) receive less than half the average income of their country. In the United States,real earnings fell by 3% through the 1980s.Minority ethnic groups are usually amongthe hardest hit: in Canada, nearly half theindigenous people living on reservationsnow rely on transfer payments for theirbasic needs.Some sections of the population face aparticularly difficult situation. In 1994,about 65 million disabled people needtraining and job placement to attain economic security. Only 1% will receive mean-

1 -

-

. . . .

j--

6

9

3

o

12

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Starvation amid plenty-the Bengal famine of 1943cultural labourers and other workersfound theycouldno longer afford to eat,and thousands headed for the cities,particularly Calcutta, in the hope of survival. Priceswere then driven even higher by speculation and panic buying.

The famine could probably havebeen averted by timely government action. But the colonial government didnothing to stop hoarding by producers,traders andconsumers. The general policy was "wait and see". Relief work wastotally inadequate, and the distributionof foodgrains to the rural districts wasinefficient. Even in October 1943, with100,000 sick and destitute people onthe streets of Calcutta, the governmentcontinued to deny the existence of afamine.The result was one of the largestman-made catastrophes of our time.

Food securityFood security means that all people at alltimes have both physical and economic access to basic food. This requires not justenough food to go round. It requires thatpeople have ready access to food-thatthey have an "entitlement" to food, bygrowing it for themselves, by buying it or bytaking advantage of a public food distribution system. The availability of food is thusa necessary condition of security-but nota sufficient one. People can still starve evenwhen enough food is available-as has happened during many famines (box 2.2).

The overall availability of food in theworld is not a problem. Even in developing countries, per capita food productionincreased by 18% on average in the 1980s.And there is enough food to offer everyone in the world around 2,500 calories aday-200 calories more than the basicmmlffium.

But this does not mean that everyonegets enough to eat. The problem often is thepoor distribution of food and a lack of purchasing power. Some 800 million peoplearound theworld go hungry. In Sub-SaharanAfrica, despite considerable increases in theavailability of food in recent years, some 240million people (about 30% of the total) areundernourished. And in South Asia, 30% ofbabies are born underweight-the highestratio for any region in the world and a sadindication of inadequate access to food, particularly for women, who are often the last

TABLE 2.1Indicators of food security inselected countriesFood

Food import Dailyproduction dependency perper capita ratio capita calorieindex index supply(1979/81 (1969/71 as % of=100) =100) requirementsCountry 1991 1988/90 1988-90Ethiopia 86 855 71Afghanistan 71 193 76Mozambique 77 300 77Angola 79 366 80Rwanda 84 322 80Somalia 78 134 81Sudan 80 156 83Burundi 91 165 85Haiti 84 364 94

E\XI DIME SIO OF HUMAN SECURl1Y

to eat in the household. Table 2.1 gives selected indicators of food security in developing countries.

Government and international agencieshave tried manyways of increasing food security-at both national and global levels.But these schemes have had only a limitedimpact. Access to food comes from accessto assets, work and an assured income. Andunless the question of assets, employmentand income security is tackled upstream,state interventions can do little for food insecurity downstream.Health securityIn developing countries, the major causesof death are infectious and parasitic diseases, which kill 17 million people annually,including 6.5 million from acute respiratory infections, 4.5 million from diarrhoealdiseases and 3.5 million from tuberculosis.Most of these deaths are linked with poornutrition and an unsafe environmentparticularly polluted water, which contributes to the nearly one billion cases ofdiarrhoea a year.In industrial countries, the major killersare diseases of the circulatory system (5.5million deaths a year), often linked with diet and life style. Next comes cancer, which

Famines are commonly thought of asNature's revenge on hapless humanity.Although Nature can certainly createlocal food shortages, human beingstum these shortages into widespreadfamines. People go hungry not becausefood is unavailable-but because theycannot afford it.The Bengal famine of 1943 showswhy. Between two million and three million lives were lost, even though therewas no overall shortage of food. In fact,the per capita supply of foodgrains in1943 was 9% higher than in 1941.The famine was partly a product ofan economic boom. Sudden increases inwar-related activities exerted powerfulinflationary pressures on the economyand caused food prices to rise. In theurban areas, those with work could paythese prices. But in the rural areas, agri-

People go hungrynot because food isunavailable-butbecause theycannot afford it

BOX 2.2

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HIV and AIDS-a global epidemic

Human beings rely on a healthy physical environment---curiously assuming that whatever damage they inflict on the earth, it willeventually recover. This clearly is not thecase, for intensive industrialization andrapid population growth have put the planet under intolerable strain.The environmentai threats countries are

facing are a combination of the degradationof local ecosystems and that of the globalsystem. The threats to the global environment are discussed later. Here the focus isenvironmental threats within countries.

People in the industrial countries aremuch more likely to have access to healthcare, but even here the disparities in healthsecurity are sharp-and for many peoplegettingworse. In theUnited States between1989 and 1992, the number of people without health insurance increased from 35 million to 39 million.While poor people in general have lesshealth security, the situation for women isparticularly difficuJt. One of the most serious hazards they face is childbirth: morethan three million women die each yearfrom causes related to childbirth. Most ofthese death could be prevented by ensuring access t9 safe and affordable familyplanning and offering the most basic support at home during pregnancy and delivery, with the option of referrals to clinics orhospitals for women with evident complications.The widest gap between the North and

the South in any human indicator is in maternal mortality-which is about 18 timesgreater in the South. Thus a miracle of lifeoften turns into a nightmare of death justbecause a society cannot spare the loosechange to provide a birth attendant at thetime of the greatest vulnerability and anxiety in a woman's life.Another increasing source of health insecurity for both sexes is the spread ofHIVand AIDS (box 2.3). Around 15 millionpeople are believed to be HIV-positive80% of them in developing countries. By2000, this figure may rise to 40 million (13million of them women).EnvironmentaL security

Future projections are alarming. By2000, the number ofHIV-infected people is expected to rise tobetween30and40 million-13 million of them women.By that time, the epidemic would haveleft more than nine millionMrican children as orphans.The geographical distribution ofHIV and AIDS is changing. In the mid1980s, the epidemic was well-established in orth America and Africa, butby 2000, most of the new infections willbe in Asia. In Thailand today, there arean estimated 500,000 HIV-infectedpeople, and in India, more than a million.The global c o s t ~ e c t and indirect- o f HIV and AIDS by 2000 could beas high as $500 billion a year-equivalent to more than 2% ofglobal GDP

in many cases has environmental causes. Inthe United States, there are considered tobe 18 major cancer-causing environmentalrisks, with indoor pollution at the top of thelist.

In both developing and industrial countries, the threats to health security are usually greater for the poorest, people in therural areas and particularly children (figure2.3). In the developing countries in 1990,safe water was available to 85% of urbanpeople bu t to only 62% of rural people. Inindustrial countries, the poor and the racialminorities are more exposed to disease. Inthe United States, one-third of whites livein areas polJuted by carbon monoxide, butthe figure for blacks is nearly 50%. In 1991,life expectancy was 72 years for Canada'sindigenous people, compared with 77 yearsfor all Canadians.

The disparities between rich and poorare similar for access to health services. Inthe industrial countries on average, there is1 doctor for every 400 people, but for thedeveloping countries there is 1 for nearly7,000 people (in Sub-Saharan Africa thefigure is 1 per 36,000). There also aremarked disparities in health spendingamong developing countries. The Republicof Korea spends $377 per capita annuallyon health care, bu t Bangladesh only $7.

The cumulative number of HIV-infected people worldwide is now around 15million, with more than 12.5 million indevelopingcountries- 9million inSubSaharan Africa, 1.5 million in LatinAmerica and 2 million in Asia.MostHIV-infected people live in urban areas, and 70% are in the prime productive ages of 20-40 years. Onemillion are children. In the UnitedStates, AIDS is now the prime cause ofdeath for men aged 25-44, and thefourth most important for women inthat age group. The cumulative directand indirect costs of HIV and AIDS inthe 1980s have been conservatively estimated at $240 billion. The social andpsychological costs of the epidemic forindividuals, families, communities and

nations are also huge-but inestimable.

BOX 2.3

1S

2S

Improving

1975

Deteriorating

35

30

20

10 1990C20 t040 197550 I60 r0

FIGURE 2.3Children's healthPercentage of children under 5who are underweight

80

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The rising tide of disasters

2q

FIGURE 2.4More than a bil lion people indeveloping countries still lacksafe drinking waterBillions of people

2,?

1.01 5

0.5

1.5

BOX 2.4

Populationwithout accessto safe water

who occupy the steep hillsides vulnerable to landslides. It is they who occupythe fragile delta islands that lie in thepaths of cyclones. And it is theywho livein the crowded and poorly built slumbuildings shaken to theground by earthquakes.There also are international disparities. Droughts or floods in Mrica domuchmore damage than those in orthAmerica. So, of the global disaster incidents between 1967 and 1991, 22%were in theAmericas and 15% inAfrica.But 60% of the resulting deaths were inMrica, and only 6% in the Americas.Poor nations obviously are lessequipped to cope with natural disasters.Disasters also cause considerableeconomic damage, and here too the fig-ures have been rising. Global losses forthe 1960s were estimated at $10 billion,for the 1970s at $30 billion and for the1980s at $93 billion. Most of these losses (over 60%) were in the industrialcountries-though as a proportion ofGNp, the economic costs were higherfor the developing countries.Disasters in developing countries arean integral part of their poverty cycle.Poverty causes disasters. And disastersexacerbate poverty. Only sustainablehuman development-which increasesthe security of human beings and of theplanet we inhabit-can reduce the frequency and impact of natural disasters.

The frequency and severity of disastershave increased sharply over the past twodecades. There were 16 major disastersin the 1960s, 29 in the 1970s and 70 inthe 1980s.According to the InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies, the major causes ofdeaths from natural disasters during1967-91 were droughts (1.3 million),cyclones (0.8 million), earthquakes (0.6million) and floods (0.3 million). But ac-counting for the largest number of dis-aster incidents over the period werefloods (1,358), followed by accidents(1,284). Adisaster is defined as an eventthat has killed at least ten people, or af-fected at least 100.Probably the most significant causeofthe rise in the number and impact ofdisasters is population growth, which isforcing people to live in more marginaland dangerous places-low-lying landliable to flooding or areas close to activevolcanoes. And as more and more of theplanet is settled, earthquakes are morelikely to strike inhabited areas. Population increases and industrial development also lead to environmentaldegradation. Deforestation and overgrazing, for example, have increased thenumber and severity of droughts andfloods.Poor people are much more exposedto disasters than are rich ones. It is they

vironmental catastrophes. Many chronic"natural" disasters in recent years have alsobeen provoked by human beings. Deforestation has led to more intense droughts andfloods. And population growth has movedpeople into areas prone to cyclones, earthquakes or floods-areas always considereddangerous and previously uninl1abited (box2.4). Poverty and land shortages are doingthe same-driving people onto much moremarginal territory and increasing their exposure to natural hazards. The result: disasters are more significant and morefrequent. During 1967-91, disasters hitthree billion people-80% of them inAsia.More than seven million people died, andtwo million were injured.Most developing countries have plans

to copewith natural emergencies-Bangla-

In developing countries, one of thegreatest environmental threats is that towater. Today, the world's supply of waterper capita is only one-third of what it wasin 1970. Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a factor in ethnic strife and political tension. In 1990, about 1.3 billionpeople in the developing world lacked access to clean water (figure 2.4). And muchwater pollution is the result of poor sanitation: nearly two billion people lack accessto safe sanitation.But people in developing countries have

also been putting pressure on the land.Some eight to ten million acres of forestland arc lost each year-areas the size ofAustria. And deforestation combined withovergrazing and poor conservation methods is accelerating desertification. In SubSaharanMrica alone in the past 50 years, 65million hectares of productive land turnedto desert.Even irrigated land is under threat

from salt residues. Salinization damage affects 25% of the irrigated land in CentralAsia, and 20% in Pakistan.In industrial countries, one of the majorenvironmental threats is air pollution. LosAngeles produces 3,400 tons of pollutantseach year, and London 1,200 tons. Harmfulto health, this pollution also damages thenatural environment. The deterioration ofEurope's forests from air pollution causeseconomic losses of $35 billion a year. Andthe estimated annual loss of agriculturalproduction due to air pollution is $1.5 billion in Sweden, $1.8 billion in Italy, $2.7 billion in Poland and $4.7 billion in Germany.Although the character of environmen

tal damage differs between industrial anddeveloping countries, the effects are similaralmost everywhere. Salinization is also severe in the United States. And air pollutionis also acute in cities in the developingworld. Mexico City produces 5,000 tons ofair pollutants a year, and in Bangkok, airpollution is so severe that more than 40% ofthe city's traffic police reportedly sufferfrom respiratory problems.Many environmental threats are chronic

and long-lasting. Others take on a moresudden and violent character. Bhopal andChernobyl are the more obvious sudden en-

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FIGURE 2.5Profile of human distress in industrial countries

MURDERIntentional homiddes by males per 100,000males Per 100,000 women aged 15-59

desh, for example, has an elaborate warningsystem for cyclones arriving in the Bay ofBengal. Sometimes the scale is beyond national resources and calls for internationalaction. Responses, however, are often slow,inadequate and uncoordinated. Currenthumanitarian efforts, particularly in the UNsystem, are seriously underfunded. Andmany of the most vulnerable people perishbefore any international help arrives.

...... United States

80

100..

120

REPORTED RAPES

...... United States

8

10

12

6 69. PersonaL security

Kilograms of sulphur and nitrogen Richest 20% of households: poorest 20%emissions per capita250 10:.1

...... Czechoslovakia ...... Australia200 ...... Canada ::II United States8:.1-. Switzerland150 ...... United States

} M"" ;od"",,1moo"'"} M," ;od,,".' m o o " ~ 6;1100

4:1 ...... Japan...... Poland50 ...... HungaryNew ZealandSwitzerland 2;1Portugal_0__

400 ...... AustraliaPer 100,000 people

POLLUTION

Perhaps no other aspect of human securityis so vital for people as their security fromphysical violence. In poor nations and rich,human life is increasingly threatened bysudden, unpredictable violence. Thethreats take several forms: Threals [rom the state (physical torture) Threats from other states (war) Threats from other groups of people(ethnic tension) Threats from individuals or gangsagainst other individuals or gangs (crime,street violence) Threats directed against women (rape,domestic violence) Threats directed at children based ontheir vulnerability and dependence (childabuse) Threats to self (suicide, drug use).

In many societies, human lives are atgreater risk than ever before (figure 2.5).For many people, the greatest source ofanxiety is crime, particularly violent crime.Many countries report disturbing trends.In 1992 in the United States, 14 millioncrimes were reported to the police. Thesecrimes exact a serious econOnllC to11-estimated at $425 billion a year. Reportedcrimes in Germany in the same year wentup by 10%. In the second halfof the 1980s,the murder rate in Italy and Portugal doubled, and in Germany it tripled. The in-crease in crime is often connected withdrug trafficking. In Canada, 225 people inevery 100,000--and in Australia, 400-suffer each year from drug-related crimes.In the second half of the 1980s, drugrelated crimes roughly doubled inDenmark and in Norway--and increasedmore than thirtyfold in Japan.

...... Canada

...... Belgium...... Au5tria

...... Germany} M"" ;od""';,1 m " " , " ~

::II DenmarkAustralia

49. ...... Australia, Sweden

20. } Most industrial countries,..Japan_0__ Italy

...... United States

_0__

509

259.

759

1,250

1,500

1,OQO

INCOME DISPARITY

Per 100,000 peopleINJURIES FROM ROAD ACCIDENTS

.... United States..... Canada

...... Denmark

4 ...... Finland...... Hungary

} Most industrial countries...... Japan_0__

200

...... Switzerland100 IMost industrial countries

~ P o r t u g a lItaly

300

DRUG CRIMES

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Crime and violence are also facts of lifein developing countries. Four children aremurdered every day in Brazil, where thekilling of minors has increased by 40% inthe past year. In Kenya in 1993, there were3,300 reported car thefts-an increase of200% over 1991. In China, violent crimeand rape are on the increase.Industrial and traffic accidents also present great risks. In industrial countries,traffic accidents are the leading cause ofdeath for people aged 15-30-with someof the highest injury rates in Austria,Belgium, Canada and the United States.And in developing countries, traffic accidents account for at least 50% of total ac-cidental deaths. The highway death toll inSouth Mrica in 1993 was 10,000, threetimes the number of deaths from politicalviolence.

Violence in the workplace has also increased. In 1992, more than two million USworkers were physically attacked at theirworkplace, nearly 6.5 million others werethreatened with violence, and 16 millionwere harassed in some way. The cost of allthis in lostwork and legal expenses came tomore than $4 billion. About a sixth of thedeaths on the job in that year were homicides.

Among the worst personal threats arethose to women. In no society are womensecure or treated equally to men. Personalinsecurity shadows them from cradle tograve. In the household, they are the last toeat. At school, they are the last to be educated. At work, they are the last to be hiredand the first to be fired. And from childhood through adulthood, they are abusedbecause of their gender.

TIue, women are getting better educated and entering employment, often as primary income-earners. Millions of womenare now heads of households-one-third ofhouseholds in the world as a whole, and upto one-half in some Mrican countries,where women produce nearly 90% of thefood. But there still are many shocking indicators of gender insecurity and physicalviolence. Itwas recently estimated that onethird of wives in developing countries arephysically battered. On e woman in 2,000 intheworld is reported to have been raped. In

'1\'\' DL\IF. 'SIO, 'S 01 IIU\IA S H U R I n

the Unit ed States, there were more than150,000 reported rapes in 1993 alone.Sexual harassment on the job is common.In India, women's groups claim that thereare about 9,000 dowry-related deaths eachyear. For 1992, the government estimatesthat the figure was 5,000.

Children, who should be the most protected in any society, are subject to manyabuses. In the United States, nearly threemillion children were recently reported tobe victims of abuse and neglect, and in1992, nearly 7,000 US children (20 a day)died from gunshot wounds. In developingcountries, poverty compels many childrento take on heavywork at too young an age -often at great cost to their health. In Brazil,more than 200,000 children spend theirlives on the streets. Even conservative estimates pu t the combined number of childprostitutes in Thailand, Sri Lanka and thePhilippines at 500,000.Community securityMost people derive security from theirmembership in a g r o u p - a faJTlily, a community, an organization, a racial or ethnicgroup that can provide a cultural identi tyand a reassuring set of values. Such groupsalso offer practical support. Th e extendedfamily system, for example, offers protection to its weaker members, and many tribal societieswork on the principle that headsof households are entitled to enough landto support their family-so land is distributed accordingly.

But traditional communities can alsoperpetuate oppressive practices: employingbonded labour and slaves and treatingwomen particularly harshly. In Mrica, hundreds of thousands of girls suffer genitalmutilation each year because of the traditional practice of female circumcision.

Some of these traditional practices arebreaking down under the steady process ofmodernization. The extended family is nowless likely to offer support to a member indistress. Traditional languages and culturesare withering under the onslaught of massmedia. On the other hand, many oppressivepractices are being fought by people's organizations and through legal action.

In no society arewomen secure ortreated equally tomen

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Political securityOne of the most important aspects of human security is that people should be ableto live in a society that honours their basichuman rights.

In this respect, at least, there has beenconsiderable progress. The 1980s were inmany ways a decade of democratic transition-as many military dictatorships cededpower to civilian administrations and oneparty states opened themselves up to multiparty elections.

Yet there still is a longway to go in protecting people against state repression.According to a 1993 survey by AmnestyInternational, political repression, systematic torture, ill treatment or disappearancewas still practised in 110 countries.

Human rights violations are most frequent during periods of political unrest. In1992, Amnesty International concludedthat unrest resulted in human rights violations in 112 countries, and in 105 countriesthere were reports of political detentionand imprisonment. Unrest commonly results in military intervention-as in 64

The United Nations declared 1993 theYear of Indigenous People to highlight thecontinuing vulnerability of the 300 millionaboriginal people in 70 countries. In Vene-zuela in 1986, there were 10,000Yanomamipeople-but now their survival is increasingly in danger. Indigenous groups oftenlose their traditional freedom ofmovement.During the drought of the 1970s, the onemillion Tuareg nomads in the Sahara foundit much more difficult to move their herdsto faraway water holes, and as many as125,000 people starved to death.

Indigenous people also face wideningspirals of violence. In Canada, an indigenous person is six times more likely to bemurdered thanotherCanadians.And symptoms of depression and despair are all toocommon: in 1988, there were a reported 40suicides per 100,000 indigenous people,nearly three times the national rate. NobelPeace Prize winner Rigoberta MenchU givesher view of the importance of the International Decade of Indigenous People (special contribution, facing page).

MajorGroup armedrebellion" conflictsb1980-89 1989-92ountry

TABLE 2.2Ethnic and religious conflictsRefugeesfromthe country(thousands)1992

Afghanistan yes yes 4,720Mozambique no yes 1.730Iraq yes yes 1,310Somalia yes yes 870Ethiopia yes yes 840Liberia no yes 670Angola yes yes 400Myanmar yes yes 330Sudan yes yes 270Sri Lanka yes yes 180a. Group rebellion occurs when non-state communalgroups arm themselves and organize more than 1,000fighters and engage in violent activities against othersuch groups.b. Major armed conflicts are defined as contested conflicts that concern government or terri tory. in whichthere is use of armed force by the two parties. of whichat least one is the government (or parts of government)of a state. and which has resulted in more than 1.000battle-related deaths during the course of the conflict.

'fraditional commurutles, particularlyethnic groups, can also come under muchmore direct attack-from each other.About 40% of the world's states have morethan five sizable ethnic populations, one ormore of which faces discrimination. In several nations, ethnic tensions are on the rise,often overlimited access to opportunitieswhether to social services from the state orto jobs from the market. Individual communities lose out, or believe they lose out,in the struggle for such opportunities. As aresult, about half of the world's states haverecently experienced some interethnicstrife. And this has been especially seriouswhere national conflict was exacerbated bycold war rivalry.

Ethnic clashes often have brutal results(table 2.2). Since 1983 in Sri Lanka, morethan 14,000 people have died in theconflict between the Tamils and the Sinhalese. Since 1981 in former Yugoslavia,more than 130,000 people have been killedand more than 40,000 helpless women reportedly raped in what shamelessly wasnamed "ethnic cleansing", while most ofthe world watched silently from the sidelines. In Somalia in 1993, there were up to10,000 casualties-about two-thirds ofthem women and children-from clashesbetween rival factions or with UN peacekeepers.

Ethnic tensions areon the rise, oftenover limited accessto opportunities

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countries. But the police can also be used asagents of repression-they are commonlycited as the perpetrators of human rightsviolations in both East ern and WesternEurope.

Along with repressing individuals andgroups, governments commonly try to exercise control over ideas and information.UNESCO's index of press freedom findsthe least free areas to be North Africa,Western Asia and South Asia.

One of the most useful indicatorsof political insecurity in a country is the prioritythe government accords military strengthsince governments sometimes use armies torepress their own people. H a government is

more concerned about its military establishment than i ts people, this imbalance showsup in the ratio ofmilitary to social spending(table 2.3). The two nat ions with the highest ratios of military spending to educationand health spending in 1980 were Iraq (8 to1) and Somalia (5 to 1). Is it any surprisethat these two nations ran into serious trouble during the 1980s and that the same powers that supplied them arms a decade agoare now struggling to disarm them?

Among these seven elements of humansecurity are considerable links and overlaps.A threat to one element of human securityis likely to travel-like an angry typhoonto all forms of human security.

. . The International Decade of Indigenous People

We believe in thewisdomof our ancestors andwise peoplewhopassed on to us their strength and taught us the art of language-enabling us to reaffirm the validity of our thousandyear-old history and the justice of our struggle.

My cause was not born out of something good, itwas bornout of wretchedness and bitterness. It has been radicalized bythe poverty in which my people live. It has been radicalized bythe malnutrition which I, as an Indian, have seen and experienced. And by the exploitation and discriminationwhich I havefelt in the flesh. And by the oppression which prevents us fromperforming our ceremonies, and shows no respect for our wayof life, theway we are. At the same time, they've killed the people dearest to me. Therefore, my commitment to our struggleknows no boundaries or limits. That is why I have travelled toso many places where I have had the opportunity to talk aboutmy people.

The international struggle has been of vital importance, es-pecially in the last decade. It has resulted in our achieving aworld audience at the United Nations. Promoting the rights ofindigenous people has been a tremendous challenge, both forthe indigenous peoples themselves and for the member statesof the United Nations. But in time and with determination, im-portant successes have been achieved. These include the creation of the Task Force on Indigenous Peoples, the proposedDeclaration of the United Nations on Indigenous People, theadoption of 1993 as the InternationalYear of IndigenousPeopleand recently the proclamation by the UN General Assembly of1994 as the preparatoryyear for the InternationalDecadeof theWorld's Indigenous People.

Themarkingof the fifth centenaryof the arrival ofColumbusin America was an opportunity not only to reiterate the justiceof the historic claims of the indigenous people but also todemonstrate our readiness to continue the struggle to achievethem. At the same time, it helped stimulate awareness in inter-

nx 01. IE SIO.S 01 I Il ~ I SI.CL'IUTY

national institutions and the communications media of theproblems which indigenous people face-as well as explicitlyemphasize the significance of our presencewithin countries andin the world in general.

The International Year of Indigenous People enabled us tostrengthen the unity within our organizations, to bring togetherour aspirations and plans and above all to bear witness to theemptiness and the painful situation of misery, marginalizationand humiliation inwhich we continue to live. The InternationalYear of Indigenous People enabled the indigenous peoplesthemselves to carry out an enormous number of their own activities and initiatives, including the two summit meetings(Chimaltenango and Oaxtepec). These helped us to bring together our demands and resolutions which we hope the international community will take into account. At the same time, itwas possible to disseminate information about the current situation of ourpeople-and start to overcomemanyof the old cultural and historic prejudices.

I would like to paymy respects to all the organizations, communities, leaders and representatives of indigenous peopleswho gave me the wonderful opportunity to bearwitness to theiraspirations, desires for justice and hopes for peace-in theworld of uncertainty, of death and of difficult conditions inwhich the majority of people currently live. I would also like toreaffirm, together with my fellow indigenous people, our commitment to carry on our own struggle. The InternationalDecadefor Indigenous People is one more step towards building newrelationships between states and indigenous peoples on the basis of mutual respect.

Rjgoberta MenchU, winner of the 1992 Nobel Peace Prize

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TABLE 2.3Ratios of military tosocial spending,1990/91(military expenditure as %of combined education andhealth expenditure)Syrian Arab Rep. 373Oman 293Iraq 271Myanmar 222A n g o ~ 208Somalia 200Yemen 197Qatar 192Ethiopia 190Saudi Arabia 151Jordan 138

Global human securitySome global challenges to human securityarise because threats within countriesrapidly spill beyond national frontiers.Environmental threats are one of the clearest examples: land degradation, deforestation and the emission of greenhouse gasesaffect climatic conditions around the globe.The trade in drugs is also a transnationalphenomenon-drawingmillions of people,both producers and consumers, into a cycleof violence and dependency.

Other threats take on a global characterbecause of the disparities between countries-disparities that encourage millionsof people to leave thei r homes in searchof a better life, whether the receiving country wants them or not. And in some cases,frustration over inequality can take theform of religious fundamentalism-or eventerrorism.

So,when human security is under threatanywhere, it can affect people everywhere.Famines, ethnic conflicts, social disintegration, terrorism, pollution and drug trafficking can no longer be confined withinnational borders. And no nation can isolateits life from the rest of the world.

This indivisibility of global human security extends to the consequences of bothprosperity and poverty. International tradeis widening people's range of choices.Instant global communication enablesmanymore to participate inworld events asthey happen. Every minute, computer networks transfer billions of dollars across international frontiers at the touch of akeyboard.

But if prosperity is becoming globalized, so is poverty, though with much lessfanfare. Millions of people migrate to other countries in search of work. Drug traffickers now have one of the best-organizedand best-financed international networks.Ethn ic tensions can spill over nationalfrontiers. And one person can carry anincurable disease-such as AIDS-to anycorner of the world.

Nor does pollution respect borders.And we may yet witness the scary sight of asmall nuclear weapon in the hands of a determined international terrorist.

The real threats to human securityin thenext century will arise more from the actions of millions of people than from ag-gression by a few nations-threats that willtake many forms: Unchecked population growth Disparities in economic opportunities Excessive international migration Environmental degradation Drug production and trafficking International terrorism.

It is in the interest of all nations to dis-cover fresh ways of cooperating to respondto these six emerging threats (and others,should they arise) that constitute the globalframework of human insecurity.Unchecked population growthThe rapid rate of population growthcoupled with a lack of developmental opportunities-is overcrowding the planet,adding to the enormous pressures on diminishing non-renewable resources.

This growth-at the root of globalpoverty, international migration and environmental degradation-is unprecedentedin history. It took one million years to produce the first one billion people on earth. Itwill now take only ten years to add the nextbillion to today's 5.5 billion.

The response has to be multifaceted.Certainly, family planning irLformation andservices must be available to all those whowant them-particularly to the 100 to 200million couples whose current demand isnot being met. But it is folly to treat population growth as a clinical problem. It is adevelopment problem. Indeed, in many so-cieties, human development (especially theeducation of females) has proven the mostpowerful contraceptive.

Any plan of action to slow populationgrowth must receive both national and international support, and include both familyplanning services and targeted humandevelopment programmes. A major opportunity to design such a response is the International Conference on Population andDevelopment in Cairo in September 1994.

Despite the considerable internationalrhetoric on unchecked population growth,population programmes go underfinanced.

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The World Bank estimates that if costeffective methods are adopted, i t wouldtake only an additional $2 billion a year toprovide family planning services to the 120million women in developing countries desiring such services. But this amount has yetto be pledged, just like the $2.5 billion ayear of additional investment it would taketo remove gender disparities in education.Disparities in economic opportunitiesDuring the past five decades, world incomeincreased sevenfold (in real GDP) and income per person more than tripled (in percapita GDP). But this gain has been spreadvery unequally-nationally and internationally-and the inequality is increasing.Between 1960 and 1991, the share ofworldincome for the richest 20% of the globalpopulation rose from 70% to 85%. Over thesame period, all but the richest quintile sawtheir share of world income fall-and themeagre share for the poorest 20% declinedfrom 2.3% to 1.4% (figure 2.6).

One-fifth of humankind, mostly in theindustrial countries, thus has well over fourfifths of global income and other developmental opportunities . These disparit iesreflect many other disparities-in trade, investment, savings and commercial lending.Overall, they reflect unequal access to global market opportunities. Such disparitiesentail consequences for other aspects ofhuman security. They encourage overconsumption and overproduction in the North,and they perpetuate the poverty-environment link in the South. Inevitably, theybreed resentment and encourage migrationfrom poor countries to rich.Migration pressuresOne of the clearest consequences ofpopulation growth and deepening povertyin developing countries is the growth ininternational migration. At least 35 millionpeople from the South have taken up residence in the North in the past threedecades-around one million join themeach year. Anothermillion or so are workingoverseas on contracts for fixed periods. Thenumber of illegal international migrants is

E\X'Dl.\lEl\;SlO, SOf HU[-.lA, SECURlTY

estimated to be around 15 to 30 million.In addition, there are large numbers ofrefugees. In the developing countries today,there are nearly 20 million internally displaced people-and worldwide, probablyaround 19 million refugees (figure 2.7).

These pressures are likely to increase.Expanding populations, l imited employment opportunities , closed internationalmarkets and continuing environmentaldegradation will force millions more toleave their own countries. But the affluentnations are closing their doors-since theyface stagnating economies, high unemployment and the prospect of "jobless growth".

Sometimes, the policies of the industrial countries intensify migration pressures.First, they restrict employment in developing countries by raising trade and tariff barriers that limit their export potential: if thejob opportunities do not move towards theworkers, the workers are likely to move towards the job opportunities.

Second, the industrial countries do havea real demand for workers-whether forhighly educated scientists or for the unskilled labour to do the difficult manual jobsthat their own workers reject. This demandleads to highly ambivalent attitudes towardsimmigration: official disapproval, with systems of enforcement less effective than theymight be so that enough constructionworkers' fruit pickers or nannies can find theirwaym.

Control of international migration is notjust an administrative issue. It is primarilyan economic issue-requiring a new framework of development cooperation that integrates foreign assistance with tradeliberalization, technology transfers, foreigninvestments and labour flows (chapter 4).Environmental degradationMost forms of environmental degradationhave their most severe impact locally. Butother effects tend to migrate. Polluted airdrifts inexorably across national frontiers,with sulphur dioxide emissions in one country falling as acid rain in another. About60% of Europe's commercial forests sufferdamaging levels of sulphur deposition. InSweden, about 20,000 of the country's

61:1

FIGURE 2.6The widening gapbetween the richand the poorRatio of income shares-richest 20% : poorest 20%of world population

30:1

Poorest Richest Poorest Richest1960 1991

FIGURE 2.7Refugees of the past three yearscould populate a major city or acountryPopulation In millions, 1992

19.2 19.0 192188 187

16.2

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Trade in narcoticdrugs is one of themost corrosivethreats to humansociety

36

90,000 lakes are acidified to some degree;in Canada, 48,000 are acidic. And thesource of the problem in these instances isnot only within the country.

The emission of chlorofluorocarbons al-so has an international, indeed a truly global, effect-as the gases released inindividual countries attack the ozone layer.In 1989, research teams found that theozone layer over Antarctica was reduced toonly 50% of its 1979 level. And in 1993,satellite measurements over the heavilypopulated mid-latitudes of the NorthernHemisphere showed the ozone layer to beat record lows, with serious implications forhuman health. Ozone filters out ultravioletradiation, which can lead to various kinds ofskin cancer. Between 1982 and 1989 in theUnited States, the incidence of the mostdangerous form of skin cancer, melanoma,rose by more than 80%.

The production of greenhouse gases inindividual countries also has a global impact. Layers of these gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, accumulating inthe upper atmosphere contribute to globalwarming because they reflect back infraredradiation that would otherwise escape intospace. In 1989, the Uni ted States and theformer Soviet Union were the largest producers of such gases-respectively responsible for 18% and 14% of total emissions.But the effects will be felt all over theglobe-and could have their greatest impact on the poorest countries. With a onemetre rise in sea level partly due to globalwarming, Bangladesh (which produces only0.3% of global emissions) could see its landarea shrink by 17%.

Biological diversity is more threatenednow than at any t ime in the past. Tropicaldeforestation is the main culprit, but the destruction of wetlands, coral reefs and temperate forests also figures heavily. Germanyand the Netherlands lost nearly 60% oftheir wetlands between 1950 and 1980.And a recent analysis of tropical forest habitats, which contain 50-90% of the world'sspecies, concluded that, at current rates ofloss, up to 15% of the earth's species coulddisappear over the next 25 years. Today, only 45% of the world's temperate rainforestsremam.

The trends of the past 20 years show anaccelerated destruction of coastal marinehabitats, increases in coastal pollution, andin many areas, a shrinking of the marine fishcatch. In 1990, the global fish catch declined for the first time in 13 years-a resultof overfishing, coastal habitat destructionand water pollution.Coral reefs will also come under greaterpressure. Approximately one billion peoplewill live in coastal cities by 2000, increasingthe danger to reefs from overfishing, pollution and soil erosion.

As habitats are fragmented, altered ordestroyed, they lose their ability to provideecosystem services-water purification, soilregeneration, watershed protection, temperature regulation, nutrient and wasterecycling and atmospheric maintenance.All these changes threaten global humansecurity.Drug traffickingThe trade in narcotic drugs is one of themost corrosive threats to human society.During the past 20 years, the narcotics industry has progressed from a small cottageenterprise to a highly organized multinational business that employs hundreds ofthousands of people and generates billionsof dollars in profits (box 2.5). The retailvalue of drugs, as estimated in a recentstudy, now exceeds the international tradein oil-and is second only to the arms trade.The main producing countries are Afghanistan, Bolivia, Colombia, Iran, Pakistan,Peru and Thailand. And while consumptionis rapidly spreading all over the world, thehighest per capita use is reported to be inthe United States and Canada. In theUnited States alone, consumer spendingonnarcotics is thought to exceed the combined GDPs of more than 80 developingcountries. In recent times, the countries ofEastern Europe have also become prominent in drug trafficking-at least 25%of theheroin consumed in Western Europe nowpasses through Eastern Europe.

Despite the magnitude of the threat, theinternational community has yet to producea coherent response. But some individualcountries have drawn up their own action

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plans. In Bolivia, coca producers have beenpaid to take coca out of production$2,000 a hectare-and since 1989, theyhave annually converted more than 5,000hectares of land to other crops.

But such lone efforts are not an effective, durable answer.As long as the demandpersists, so will the supply. The real solutionhas to lie in addressing the causes of drugaddiction-and in eradicating the povertythat tempts farmers into drug production.

tionally and internationally. Over the pastnve decades, humankind gradually built upan edifice of global security-an edifice ofnuclear deterrents, power balances, strategic alliances, regional security pacts andinternational policing through the superpowers and the United Nations.

Much of this global security frameworkBOX 2.5The international narcotics trade

International terrorism

Violence can travel from one country to another through conventional warfare-andthrough terrorism.

Between 1975 and 1992, there were anaverage of 500 international terrorist attacks a year. Bombings are the most common type of incident (60%), followed byarmed attacks, and in individual years therehave also been large numbers of arson attacks or aircraft hijackings. The peak in recent decades was in 1987, with 672incidents. In 1992, the number dropped to362, the lowest since 1975.

Between 1968 and 1992, the number ofannual casualties was never less than 1,000,and 1985 was the worst year, with 3,016 casualties-816 people killed and 2,200wounded. Most of the victims have beenthe general public-though in 1980-83 themajority were diplomats, and in the pasttwo years most attacks have been madeagainst businesses. While the number oftheir victims may not look high, the fear thatthese attacks spread among the world'spopulation at large is immense.The focus of terrorist activity tends to

move around the world. Until the early1970s, most incidents were in Latin America. Then the focus switched to Europe. Inthe mid-1980s, most of the incidents werein the Middle East. And now, terrorist incidents take place all over the world.Terrorism, with no particular nationality, isa global phenomenon.Needed policy actionThis discouraging pro@e of human insecurity demands new policy responses, both na-

, EW DlMENSIO SOl' HU\lA 'SECURITI'

Narcotic drugs have become one of thebiggest items of international trade, withthe total volume of drug traffickingestimated at around $500 billion a year.The OECD estimates that $85 billionin drug profits is laundered throughfinancial markets each year, of which$32 billion passes through the UnitedKingdom.Since almost all the production andtrade in these drugs is illegal, statisticsare notoriously unreliable. The largestexporter of cocaine is probably Colombia, followed by Peru and Bolivia, whileMyanmar seems to be the leadingsource of heroin. Pakistan is one of themajor exporters of cannabis. One studyof the nine major producing countriesestimated theirannual production of co-caine at around 300 tons, heroin ataround 250 tons and cannabis at wellover 25,000 tons.Drug addiction causes immense human distress. And the illegal productionand distribution of drugs have spawnedworldwidewaves of crime and violence.International efforts to stamp out thisnoxious trade beganmore than 80 yearsago, when opium was brought under in-ternational jurisdiction. Since then,there have been numerous conventionsand conferences on drug abuse and il-licit trafficking. In 1990, the GeneralAssembly of the United Nations declared the 1990s the UN Decadeagainst Drug Abuse.But thus far, efforts to eliminate thedrug menace have prompted rathermore righteous indignation than effective action-mainly because the costs ofsignificantly reducing production orconsumption are just too high. Successfully eradicating crops like opium or coca demands offering falmers equallyvaluable alternative crops. But given thehigh prices for drugs, this is almost impossible. In Bolivia, the coca-cocaine in-

dustry is thought to beworth as much as20% of GNP.Most efforts at stifling drug production have brought limited benefits.Eradicating crops in one place tends toshift production elsewhere. WhenMexico suppressed marijuana production, it sprang up in Colombia. WhenThailand managed to reduce opiumcrops, producers moved to Myanmarand the Lao People's DemocraticRepublic.Reducing consumption is equallydifficult. Many wealthy and educatedpeople use small amounts of drugsmuch as they might use alcohol and tobacco-and are prepared to risk theconsequences. But many of the heaviestdrug u ers are poor and desperateseeking some kind of anaesthesia for thehopelessness of their lives. For them,drugs may be dangerous, but they havelittle left to lose. This underclass is notlimited to the industrial countries. TheUnited States is the largest single market for drugs, but developing countries,particularly those that are drug producers, also have serious addiction problems. Pakistan, for example, is thoughtto have more than one million heroinusers, and Thailand has around 500,000addicts.One radical alternative is decriminalization. This would reduce the vio

lence and crime associated with drugsand allow for production and consumption in less squalid and dangerous circumstances. The risk, however, is that itmight increase overall consumption.

In the end, probably the only solution will be to remove the kind of socialdistress that feeds drug addiction and topromote human development, whichcan strengthen families and communities and offer young people more productive outlets for their time andenergies.

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BOX 2.6 Selected indicators of human security

Early warning indicators

now needs change. In its place-or, at least,by its side-must be raised a new, more encompassing structure to ensure the securityof all people the world over. Some globalconcerns require national actions-others,a coordinated international response.

Policies for social integration

Some indicators discussed earlier in thischapter can be useful for this purpose: deteriorating food consumption, for example, high unemployment and decliningwages, human rights violations, incidentsof ethnic violence, widening regional disparities and an overemphasis on militaryspending.Identifying potential crisis countries isnot an indictment-it is an essential part ofpreventive diplomacy and an active peacepolicy. A clear set of indicators, and an earlywarningsystem based on them, could helpcountries avoid reaching the crisis point.

Consider Mghanistan, Angola, Haiti ,Iraq, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan andZaire. As analyzed in annex 1, these countries are already in various stages of crisis.Determined national and international actions-including both preventive and curative development-are needed to supportprocesses of social integration.

There are several countries where current national and international efforts needto be reinforced to promote human security. The list of such countries extends to allworld regions, and it ranges from countriesin the midst of ongoing crises-such asBurundi , Georgia, Liberia, Rwanda andTajikistan-to other countries experiencingeither severe internal tensions-such asAlgeria-or large regional disparities-suchas Egypt, Mexico and Nigeria.

Preventive action can also avoid largercosts for the world community at a laterstage. Today's UN operations in Somalia,for example, cost more than $2 billion in1993 alone. A similar investment in thesocio-economic development of Somaliaten years ago might have averted the current crisis. Soldiers in blue beret s are nosubstitute for socio-economic reform. Norcan short-term humanitarian assistance replace long-term development support.

Although the international community canhelp prevent future crises, the primary responsibility lies with the countries themselves. And often it lies with the peoplethemselves. In Somalia today, where thereis no central government, people and their

difference between the HDI values ofdifferent population groups. Military .pending-measured by theratio ofmilitary spending to combinedexpenditure on education and health.This is only apartial set ofindicators.But even though it captures only a fewdimensions, if several of the indicatorspoint in the same direction, the countrymay be heading for trouble.These indicators would sound analarm if applied to such countries asAfghanistan, Angola, Haiti, Mozam-bique, Myanmar, Sudan and Zaire,countries included in the various tablesof this chapter and the case studies.They might also sound an alarm if usedto measure human security in some ofthe successor states of the formerSoviet Union, notably those in CentralAsia.

Ideally, there should also be a set ofindicators to identify global threats tohuman security. And combining na-tional and global indicators wouldhighlight the coincidence of nationaland global insecurities-as with highunemployment and heavy internationalmigration.

Experience shows that where there are multiple problems of personal, economic, political or environmental security, there is arisk of national breakdown (box 2.6).

One question that preoccupies the international community is whether it is possible to get early warning signals of the riskof national breakdown. Such signals couldhelp in agreeing on timely preventive actionand avoiding conflict and war, rather thanwaiting until it is too late, as in Bosnia andSomalia.

One might want to see which countriescu rrently face similar multiple threats.

Precise quantification of human securi-ty is impossible, but some useful indicators can provide an early warning ofwhether a country is facing problems ofhuman insecurity and heading rowardssocial disintegration and possible na-tional breakdown. The foUowing indicators are particularly revealing: Food insecun'ty-measured by dailycalorie supply as a percentage of basichuman needs, the index of food production per capita and the trend of thefood import dependency ratio. Job and income insecun'ty-measured by high and prolonged unem-ployment rates, a sudden drop in realnational income or in real wages, ex-tremely high rates of inflation andwideincome disparities between the rich andthe poor. Human n'ghts violations-measuredby political imprisonment, torture, dis-appearance, press censorship and otherhuman rights violations. Ethnic or religious conflicts-measured by the percentage of populationinvolved in such conflicts and by thenumber of casualties. Inequity-measured mainly by the

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BOX 2.7Job-sharing

sure that all people have the basic capabilities and opportunities, especially in accessto assets and to productive and remunerative work. They should also ensure that people enjoy basic human rights and havepolitical choices. Recommending that all countries fullycooperate in this endeavour-regionallyand globally. To this end, a new frameworkof international cooperation for development should be devised, taking into account the indivisibility of global humansecurity-that no one is secure as long assomeone is insecure anywhere. Requesting that the United Nationsstep up its efforts in preventive diplomacy-and recognizing that the reasons for conflict and war today are often rooted in

ocal communities are doingmore than government authorities may ever have done.ut several countries also offer encouraging

examples ofwhat deliberate public policiesof social integration can achieve. Malaysia,Mauritius and Zimbabwe, for example, arecountries whose governments have takencourageous national actions to overcomepotentially dangerous national schisms(annex 2).

The policies pursued by these countriesreconfirm many of the policy lessons setforth in chapter 1 and explored further inboxes 2.7 and 2.8. First is the importance ofallowing everyone, of whatever race or ethnic group, the opportuniry to develop his orher own capacities-particularly througheffective health and education services.Second is the need to ensure that economic growth is broadly based-so that everyone has equal access to economicopportunities. Third is the importance ofcarefully crafted affirmative action programmes designed so that all sections of society gain-but that the weaker groups gainproportionally more. And the most important lesson conveyed by the country casestudies on Malaysia and Mauritius is thatwhere human security and social integration are ensured, economic growth and human development can progress too.

Many countries have unfortunately chosen a different path-and allowed inequalities to rise to a disturbing extent. The datapresented in chapter 5 on Egypt, Mexico,Nigeria and SouthAfrica show the dangersthat this can bring.

The World Summit for Social Development offers a fresh opportunity for theinternational community to shift its emphasis from the first pillar of territorial securityin the past 50 years to the second pillar ofhuman security in the next 50 years. In lightof the analysis here, the Summit might wishto consider the following: Endorsing the concept of human security as the key challenge for the 21 st century. Calling on people to make their full contribution to global human security and tobind together in solidarity. Requestingnational governments in richand poor countries to adopt policy measures for human security. They should en-

EW DIME '510 5OF HUMAN SECURIW

Lavorare meno, lavorare tutti-work lessand everybodyworks-a slogan that re-cently appeared in Italian workplaces.Indeed, throughout the industrialworld, the idea of job-sharing is gathering momentum.The basic principle is simple. Ratherthan a five-day work week for someworkers, with others remaining unemployed, the work week should be re-duced to , say, four days with acorresponding pay cut, so that morepeople can share the available work.The German auto-maker BMW in1990 introduced a four-day, 36-hourweek at one of its plants, with an agreement for more flexible working. Theproductivity gains more than offset thecost of taking on moreworkers, so therewas no need for a wage cut.A more recent deal at anotherGerman car-maker, Volkswagen, involves a four-dayweek alongwith a 10%pay cut. This has not created new jobs,but it saved 31,000 jobs that would otherwise have been eliminated.

In France, a subsidiary of the computer companyHewlett-Packard has in-troduced a more flexible four-day weekfor workers. This has enabled the plantto be run seven days a week, round theclock, rather than five days on day shifts.Production has tripled, employment hasrisen 20%, and earnings have remainedunchanged.

In Japan, the large steel companieshave been closing two days a month andofferingworkers 80-90% of their pay.Exactly how many jobs could besaved if countries were to adopt suchschemes is difficult to say. But forFrance, it has been estimated that theuniversal adoption of a four-day, 33hour work weekwith an average 5% reduction in salary would create aroundtwo million new jobs-and save $28billion in unemployment insurance.Job-sharing has its critics. Somecompaniesmay simply use reductions inwork time as away of cutting costs. Andit may be harder to implement the planin smaller companies that have lessroom for manoeuvre.

Workers and trade unions are concerned, too, that this approach might inthe long term concentrate work into afew high-paid, high-productivity jobs,leavingmanymore workerswithout jobsor mcomes.

Job-sharing could, nevertheless, bethe germ of an idea that offers greaterfreedom for workers, along with an improved private life-while contributingmuch to reducing unemployment.Clearly, the question of work andemployment needs a basic, fundamentalreview-nationally and globally. It willno doubt be a central issue for discussion at the 1995 World Summit forSocial Development.

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BOX 2.B Credit for allStudy after study on credit schemes forthe poor confirm that the poor arecreditworthy:o The poor can save, even if only a little.o The poor have profitable investmentopportunities to choose from, and theyinvest their moneywisely. The poor are very reliable borrowersand hence a very good risk. Repaymentrates of 90% and more are not rare.o The poor are able and willing to paymarket interest rates, so that creditschemes for the poor stand a goodchance of becoming viable, self-financing undertakings.The reason credit schemes for thepoor work is that they significantly improve the incomes of the poor-typically bymore than 20%, and at times evenbymore than 100%.Smaller loans are administratively

more costly than larger ones. Yet the literature on credit schemes for the pooraboundswith examplesof how some organizations and programmes manage tokeep their administrative costs low.Among the successful measures: lendingto peer groups, standardizing loanterms, collaborating with communitybased and other developmental nongovernmental organizations, eschewingtraditional banking requirements andSmall credit can make a difference

procedures and being located in thecommunity and knowing local peopleand local investment opportunities.Many savings schemes for the poor

today do mobilize the modest funds thatpoor communities have to spare. Butrarelydo they reinvest the money onlyinpoor neighbourhoods. Just the oppositeshould be the case. Not only should thepoor's savings be reinvested in poorneighbourhoods. The savings of the richshould also be encouraged to flow intothese neighbourhoods.Governmental incentive policies can

help in this. For example, governmentscouldsubsidize, for a defined interimperiod, the increased overhead costs thatbankswould incur inlending to the poor.If the aim were to serve about 120 mil-lion poor a year--every tenth poor person-this could cost some $10 billion.The poor knowbesttheir opportuni

ties for productive and remunerativework.What they reallyneed are modestamounts of start-up capital for theirrnicroenterprises.

As one study pu t it, the old parableabout feeding people for a day by givingthem a fish, or feeding them for life byteaching themhowto fish, needs a 20thcenturypostscript: what reallymatters iswho owns the pond.

poverty, social injustice and environmentaldegradation-and back these efforts upthrough preventive development initiatives. Recommending further that today'sframework of global institutions be reviewed and redesigned to prepare those institutions fully for doing their part intackling the urgent challenges of human security, all within the framework of a paradigm of longer-term sustainable humandevelopment.

Chapter 4will return to the question ofa new framework for international development cooperation and new global institutions. But before that, chapter 3 addressesone critical source of insecurity that deserves more explicit treatment than it received here, one that arises from theworld'sprevious preoccupation with deterrenceand territorial security---excessive militarization and the international arms trade.

Integrated Rural Development Programme, Indiao Among beneficiaries, 64% increased their annual family income by 50% or more.o Seventy percent of the assisted families belonged to the poorest group; however,their share in the benefits of IRDP was only 29%.o In 71 % of cases, the assets procured by the IRDP beneficiaries were found to beintact after two years.Metro Manila Livelihood Programme, Philippines Business fo r Social Progress, Philippineso The average increase in income from an average loan of $94 was 41%.o Women received 80% of loans.o Borrowers had an average of 5.7 dependents.Revolving Loan Fund, Dominican Republico The average increase in income from 101 loans was 27% a year.o The job creation rate among borrowers was more than 20 times that of the controlgroup of non-borrowers.Revolving Loan Fund, Costa Rica The average increase in income from 450 small loans was more than 100% a year. A new job was created for every $1,000 lent.

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ountries in crisis

MghanistanMany parts 0/ the country are in the hands 0/ differentMujahedeen /actiom. A bloody civIlwar isgoing on, withno end in sight. Food is scarce, and much 0/Afghanistan'sinfrastructure lies in ruins. Food security-Fourteen years of war have devastated agriculture. Farms have been abandoned and ir-rigation works destroyed. Agricultural inputs andspare parts are scarce, and armed groups control foodsupplies. Berween 1980 and 1991, per capita foodproduction declined by29%, and in 1990, Afghans couldmeet only 76% of their daily per capita calorie requirements. Although food prices tripled in 1992,farmers are unable to fetch remunerative prices forsurplus production (due to insecurity and the breakdown of infrastructure), with the exception of opium. Job and income security-Berween 1965 and 1980,per capita income increased by only 0.6% a year. Human n'ghts violatiom-Following the change ofgovernment in May 1992, thousands of political prisonerswere released. But the fate of hundreds of prisoners held in prisons controlled by someMujahedeengroups remains unknown. Mainly as a consequence ofthe ongoing civil war, cruel forms of punishment havebeen introduced by some of the warring factions. Ethnic and other conflicts-Ethnic and factionalconflicts have continued, following the defeat of thecommunist government by Islamic Mujahedeen inApril 1992. Millions of land-mines have disabled onein every six Afghans. Military spending-Afghanistan is the largest armsrecipient per capita among the poorest countries.Between 1983 and 1992, it received more than $600of conventional arms per capita.

AngolaAngola has been ravaged by years 0/ fighting that hasclaimed up to 500,000 lives. Tem 0/ thousands 0/peoplehave been maimed, and 1994 couldbring/amine to threemillion 0/ the country's ten mzllion people. Food security-Berween 1980 and 1990, the domestic food production index fell from 100 to 79. In1990, food availabilitywas only 80% of daily per capi-

NEW DIMl:.NSlONS OF HUlvlAN SECURITY

ta calorie needs. Renewed fighting in 1993 disruptedagriculture and the distribution of relief supplies.Without a cease-fire, some thsee million people facestarvation in 1994. Job and incomesecunty-Berween 1980 and 1991,annual inflation was over 90%. Around rwo-thirds ofthe population now lives below the poverty line. Human nghts violatiom-Government forces areresponsible for extrajudicial execution of suspectedpolitical opponents. And in the areas they control, theopposition UNITA forces kill suspected governmentsupporters. Ethnic and other conflicts-The Movemento porPopular Libertac;ao de Angola (MPLA) derives muchof its support from the urban areas, while the UniaoNacional para Independencia Total de Angola(UNITA) opposition consists largely of the ruralOvimbundu people, who feel thseatened by extinction. Elections were held in 1992, butUNI1l\ refusedto accept theMPLA victory, and the conflict was resumed. In 1993, starvation, disease and land-mineswere reported to be killing thousands of people. Military spending-In 1990, Angola spent 20% ofits GDP on the military. In the late 1980s, there were200 military personnel for every doctor.

HaitiHaiti continues in political and economic turmoil, /ollowing the failure 0/ recent attempts to ensure the return0/ the constitutionally elected president. Food secun'ty-Berween 1980and 1991, theindexof domestic food production fell from 100 to 84. Thecurrent embargo has increased the price of food-andof fuel and other basic necessities. Hunger and malnutrition arewidespread: an estimated 1,000 childrendie every month. Job and incomesecurity-Berween 1980 and 1990,per capita income fell on average by 2.4% a year. In1991, per capita GNP was $380. Unemployment andinflation have risen sharply. Human rights violatiom-Followingamilitary coupin 1991, a junta continues to rule thsough violent repression. All forms of popular organization have beenruthlessly suppressed. Ethnic andother conflicts-The chief conflict is be-

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tween the elite, represented by the military, and themajority of civil society. Some 1,800 peoplewere killedin early 1992 and 300 in early 1993. Fearing civil war,thousands fled to the countryside. In October 1993,the United Nations reimposed its oil and trade embargo aimed at restoring the ousted president.

IraqAfteryears0/externalwarand continuing ethnic conflicts,Iraq's infrastructure has been devastated, the country isisolated, and the population is sullen'ng great hardship un-der an authoritanan government and internationally im-posed sanctions. Foodsecun'ty-Between 1980 and 1991, percapita domestic food production declined by 32%. Largeparts of the country have been subjected to blockadesto prevent food (as well as fuel and medicines) fromreaching the besieged populations. The country normally is highly de pende nt on food imports, financedby oil exports, and the 1992 harvest was particularlypoor, covering only 20% of the 1992-93 needs. Somefive million tons of food would haveto be imported tofill the gap. Since this is unlikely, hunger and malnutrition will increase. Th e death rate among Iraqi chil-dren under five has tripled since the GulfWar. Job and income secunty-Between 1965 and 1980,per capita income grew at an annual average of 0.6%.Though no recent statistics are available, the disruption of war has probably resulted in negative growth.o Human rights violations-Thousands of politicalopponents are deta ined . Hundreds have "disappeared", and torture is widespread. Ethnic and other conflicts-Since 1974, the government has beenin conflictwith the Kurds-who arearound 20%of the population. In 1991, a civil conflictbegan with Shi 'a rebels in the southern marshes. In1992, there were 1.3 million Iraqi refugees in othercountries.o Military spending-Between 1983 and 1992, Iraq.spent $28 billion on arms. In 1990, arms importswerenearly $1,500 per capita, and there were 105 militarypersonnel for every doctor. In 1990, military spendingwas 271% of social spending.

MozambiqueMozombique's future depends on whether the cu"etltpeace agreementholds. Ifitd