財富滙集8月至10月 Aug – Oct 2013

W E A L T H S T R A T E G I E S

無懼短期市場波動 尋找潛在收益Looking past short-term market swings for potential returns

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CONTENTS目錄

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近期市場出現短暫回吐，而非逆轉

Recent market selloff: A pause, not a reversal

無懼短期市場波動 尋找潛在收益

Looking past short-term market swings for potential returns

人民幣債券前景依然秀麗Outlook for RMB bonds remains robust

美國國庫券孳息率上升對信貸市場的投資啟示Implications of rising US yields on credit markets

量化寬鬆退市 對債券市場有何影響？ 投資者應如何應對？What would QE tapering do to the bond markets and what can investors do about it?

市場到底何去何從？Where will the market go?

無懼短期市場波動尋找潛在收益Looking past short-term market swings for potential returns

02

Global equity markets was on a wild ride in the second quarter as investors were caught off guard by China’s slowdown and the Federal Reserve’s signal that it may reduce the pace of asset purchases, provided economic data continue to improve. The prospect of the tapering of quantitative easing (QE) in the US, which sparked a surge in the US Treasury yields, has also put pressure on the overall bond markets.

全球股市在第二季度表現波動，主要因為投資者憂慮中國經濟放緩及美國聯儲局可能在經濟數據繼續改善的前提下縮減資產購買規模。同時，美國逐漸縮減量化寬鬆的預期也引發了 美國國債孳息率飆升，令整體債券市場受壓。

Despite tapering talks increasing short-term volatility, company

earnings had supported the performance of US equity, which

delivered positive returns of +2.6% over the quarter. The Japanese

equity market also continued its rising trend with a 3.7% gain on

strong economic data although losing some ground following a long

winning streak in Q1.

儘管美國退市憂慮增加了市場的短期波動，但企業盈

利支持美國股票的表現，於第一季錄得2.6％的正回

報。另外，受理想的經濟數據帶動，日本股市也延續

其上升的趨勢，於第二季升3.7％，但升幅較第一季

度的強勁表現放緩。

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無懼短期市場波動尋找潛在收益 Looking past short-term market swings for potential returns

An outflow throughout Asia and EMs

Asia ex Japan and emerging market equities, however, ended the

quarter lower by falling 7.6% and 8.1% respectively as the Fed’s

possible QE tapering had led to an outflow of money throughout

the regions. In addition, Chinese and Hong Kong equities lost 6.8%

and 6.6% respectively with a spike in China’s interbank lending

rates, though the People’s Bank of China eventually intervened to

stabilise the money market.

China’s recently released economic data, which pointed to a

slowing economy, also added pressure to market sentiments. The

country’s Q2 GDP growth fell to 7.5% from 7.7%, and the

manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings for June

also dropped from 50.8 to just above the 50 threshold at 50.1,

weaker than expected. However, Premier Li Keqiang’s recent

pledge in July to put a floor under the current growth slowdown has

led to market optimism that the policy maker may fine-tune its

policies to support growth in the coming months.

資金流出亞洲及新興市場

然而，亞洲（日本除外）及新興市場的股票在第二季

度分別下跌7.6％和8.1％，主要是因為市場對聯儲局

退市的憂慮導致資金流出整個地區。此外，受累中國

銀行間拆借利率飆升，中國與香港股市分別下跌

6.8％和6.6％，儘管中國人民銀行最終曾出手干預以

穩定貨幣市場。

中國最近公佈的經濟數據反映經濟放緩，亦令市場受

壓。中國第二季度國內生產總值增長從7.7％下降至

7.5％，6月 份 製 造 業 採 購 經 理 人 指 數（PMI） 也 從

50.8下降至50.1，雖然高於50的臨界值，但差於預

期。然而，總理李克強在7月承諾防止經濟跌至低於

目標水平，令市場期望政府或在未來幾個月內輕微調

整其政策以支持經濟增長。

中國最近公佈的經濟數據反映經濟放緩，亦令市場受壓。

China’s recently released economic data, which pointed to a slowing economy, also added pressure to market sentiments.

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資料來源：Morningstar。按美元計算。數據截至2013年6月30日

環球政府債券指花旗集團環球政府債券指數；環球投資級別債券 — 巴克萊資本環球綜合債券指數；環球高收益債券 — 美林環球高息債券；環球新興市場債券 — JP摩根新興市場債券綜合指數。環球股票市場指摩根士丹利世界指數；美國股票 — 摩根士丹利美國指數；歐洲股票 — 摩根士丹利歐洲指數；日本股票 — 日本東證股價指數；亞太地區股票日本除外 — 摩根士丹利亞太地區日本除外指數；新興市場股票 — 摩根士丹利新興市場指數；中國股票 — 摩根士丹利中國指數及香港股票 — 恒生指數

Source: Morningstar. Data as of 30 June 2013 and in USD terms

Global government bond refers to Citigroup World Government Bond Index; Global investment grade bond – Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index; Global high yield bond – Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Bond and global emerging market bond – JPMorgan EMBI Global Composite. Global equity refers to MSCI World Free Index; US equity – MSCI USA Index; European equity – MSCI Europe Index; Japan equity – Topix; Asia Pacific ex Japan equity – MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan Index; Emerging market equity – MSCI EM Index; China equity – MSCI China Index and Hong Kong equity – Hang Seng Index

信貸表現受孳息率上升影響

在孳息率方面，由於投資者憂慮聯儲局縮減買債，

10年期美國國債孳息率於第二季上升了64點子至6月

28日的2.49%，為投資者情緒及整體信貸市場帶來

負面影響。環球新興市場債券於季內下跌6.1％，而

環球政府債券和投資級別企業債券也分別下跌3.0％

和2.8％。儘管風險胃納下降曾令信貸息差擴大，但

高票息可局部抵銷債券價格下跌對總回報的影響，高

收益債券於上季跑贏整體債券市場，於期內跌1.3％。

雖然退市預期、中國經濟放緩及歐元區仍未解決的債

務危機可能導致市場於短期內繼續波動，但經濟復

甦、吸引的估值及企業盈利改善將有利風險資產的中

長期表現。多元化的投資組合及逐步趁低吸納的投資

方式可幫助投資者於波動市況中管理風險及捕捉長線

投資機會。另外，近期市場回調或為能承受一定短期

波幅的投資者帶來長線投資機遇。

Rising yields impacted credit performance

In terms of yields, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 64bps over

the quarter to 2.49% on 28 June due to tapering talks, bringing

negative impacts to both investor sentiment as well as the overall

credit performance. Global emerging market bonds declined the

most by 6.1%, whereas global government bond market and

investment grade corporate bonds also lost 3.0% and 2.8%

respectively. Despite widening spread due to risk averse sentiment,

high yield bonds led the fixed income market (-1.3%), buffered by

relatively higher yield income.

While short-term volatility is likely to continue on QE tapering

concerns, China’s slowdown and unsettled Eurozone debt crisis,

the medium to long-term outlook for risk assets remains favourable

with improving economy, attractive valuations and better corporate

earnings. A diversified approach and buying on dips gradually may

help manage risk during a volatile market and capture long-term

investment opportunities. The recent market pullback may also

provide long-term entry points for those able to look through short-

term market swings.

2.58%

-0.51%

-1.29%

-7.61%

-8.08%

3.72%

-0.42%環球股票 Global Equity

美國股票 US Equity

歐洲股票 European Equity

日本股票 Japan Equity

亞太地區股票（日本除外）Asia Paci�c ex. Japan Equity

-6.63%

-6.06%

-2.79%

-2.97%

-6.76%

新興市場股票 Emerging Market Equity

中國股票 China Equity

香港股票 Hong Kong Equity

環球新興市場債券Global Emerging Market Bond

環球投資級別企業債券Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond

環球高收益債券 Global High Yield Bond

環球政府債券 Global Government Bond

2013年第二季市場表現2013 Q2 market performance

06

Julien Seetharamdoo

滙豐環球投資管理 高級宏觀及投資策略師Senior Macro and Investment Strategist,HSBC Global Asset Management

美國國庫券孳息率上升對信貸市場的投資啟示Implications of rising US yields on credit markets

滙豐環球投資管理觀點Views from HSBC Global Asset Management

近日美國聯邦儲備局的言論令市場對當地何時縮減量寬規模的揣測加劇，促使美國國庫券孳息率急升，並導致市場在接近第二季末普遍出現沽售情況。投資者愈加憂慮美國短期及長期利率上升對環球經濟及資產市場，包括信貸市場的影響。

Recent comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following intense market speculation, on plans to taper the US quantitative easing (QE) programme have led to a spike in US Treasury yields and caused a selloff in the broader market towards the end of the second quarter. Investors have become increasingly concerned about the impact that higher short- and long-term US interest rates could have on the global economy and asset markets, including the credit markets.

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11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

4%

5%

3%

2%

1%

一月Jan2010

七月Jul2010

一月Jan2011

七月Jul2011

一月Jan2012

七月Jul2012

一月Jan2013

While volatility is expected to remain high in the near term, it will

not be enough to disrupt the medium- to long-term performance of

credit markets or the outlook for the global economy. The key to

riding through all these tides is to remain focused on long-term

fundamentals such as corporate profitability and valuations which

are still supportive.

Investors continue to grapple with the prospect of reduced Fed stimulus. What is your view on this?

Since May, markets have become increasingly concerned

about the US Federal Reserve’s plans to taper off QE

measures. Yields have spiked further following the Federal Open

Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June, causing heightened

volatility in the credit markets.

縱使市場料於短期內維持大幅波動，但不足以影響信

貸市場中長線的表現或環球經濟前景。投資者應對上

述衝擊的關鍵在於，持續聚焦於長線基本因素，包括

企業盈利能力及估值等，而此等因素目前仍為市場提

供支持。

投資者仍然受到聯儲局縮減刺激經濟措施的憂慮所困擾。你對此有何看法？

自5月份以來，市場對聯儲局計劃縮減量寬措

施的憂慮升溫。聯邦公開市場委員會6月份會

議結束後，孳息率進一步上升，令信貸市場波幅加劇。

資料來源：彭博、滙豐環球投資管理，截至2013年6月

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC Global Asset Management, as of June 2013

孳息率自5月初開始上升Yields have edged higher starting early May

問

答

問

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聯儲局主席伯南克表示，若其對經濟增長的預測落

實，聯儲局可能在今年較後時間開始縮減每月量寬資

產購買規模，並逐步減慢購債步伐，大概直至2014年

中旬終止購債計劃。

量寬規模今年開始縮減的可能性已明顯增加。縮減量

寬規模與否取決於美國經濟數據表現，特別是勞工市

場的數據能否維持穩健，令聯儲局確信美國經濟能持

續復甦。

聯儲局最終會收緊現時極度寬鬆的貨幣政策，但步伐

預期將會相當審慎，故這個回復正常化的過程料亦會

循序漸進。

The Fed Chairman Bernanke said the central bank may scale back

its monthly QE asset purchases later this year and would continue

to reduce the pace, in measured steps, to end purchases around

mid-2014, if its economic projections prove broadly correct.

The chances of QE tapering beginning this year have clearly

increased. The key point is that QE tapering will begin only if the

data, especially from the labour market, holds up and the Fed is

convinced the US economy can sustain its recovery.

The Fed will eventually have to reduce its extraordinary monetary

accommodation but is likely to be cautious when tapering off QE,

so the process of normalisation will be gradual.

美國高收益債券孳息率

US High Yield yield

10年期美國國庫券孳息率

10-year US Treasury yield

摩根大通環球新興市場債券息差

JPMorgan EM Bond Index Global Spread

30年期美國按揭利率

US 30-year mortgage rates

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國庫券孳息率近期上升對信貸市場有何啟示?

信貸市場去年表現出色，但近期因國庫券孳息

率急升而受挫，影響投資級別及高收益債券的

表現。

縱使信貸市場短期內料仍會非常波動，並會繼續受

壓，但我們認為此情況不足以影響信貸市場中長線的

表現，以至環球經濟的展望。

在宏觀經濟基本因素持續獲得改善的前提下，貨幣措

施正常化預期有利於信貸息差。企業盈利能力及估值

等基本因素長遠將決定信貸市場的表現。事實上，聯

儲局若未能確認美國經濟持續改善，將不會考慮縮減

量寬規模。

What is the implication of the recent rise in Treasury yields on the credit markets?

After a period of stellar performance over the last year, the

credit markets were recently hit by by the sharp rise in

Treasury yields. Both investment grade and high yield bonds

suffered as a result.

In the short term, volatility is likely to remain high and credit markets

could stay under pressure. However, we do not think it will be

enough to disrupt the medium- to long-term performance of the

credit markets or the outlook for the global economy.

Monetary policy normalisation on the back of improving

macroeconomic fundamentals should be positive for credit spreads.

In the longer term, fundamentals such as corporate profitability and

valuations will determine performance. Indeed, the Fed would not

be contemplating tapering off the QE programme if it wasn’t

convinced the outlook for the US economy was improving.

問

答

問

答

在目前的市況下，信貸市場（特別是高收益及新興市場債券）的展望如何?

整體而言，相對政府債券，我們較看好企業債

券，並繼續對投資級別及高收益債券持偏高比

重。普遍來說，雖然信貸篩選的重要性日增，但我們

認為整體估值仍未見昂貴，特別是高收益債券市場內

週期性較低的行業。

過往，美國國庫券孳息率上升與高收益信貸息差的相

關性偏低。由於美國國庫債券孳息率傾向跟隨經濟狀

況改善而上升，即當企業違約率低企或下跌，以及盈

利能力強勁或上升，故政府債券孳息率上升時，高收

益信貸息差一般亦會收窄（即呈現反向的相關性）。

此外，由於聯儲局只會在經濟環境持續改善的情況

下，才會逐步減少購買資產及最終上調政策利率，因

此，儘管預期國庫券孳息率於下半年及明年持續上

升，企業盈利能力及信貸質素對信貸市場仍具有支持

作用。上述各項正面的基本因素，或會限制高收益債

券孳息率進一步回升的可能性，為部份有能力承受短

期波幅的長線投資者提供吸引的入市時機。

Against the current backdrop, what is the outlook for credit markets, in particular high yield (HY) and emerging market (EM) bonds?

Overall, we prefer corporate bonds to government bonds,

and we retain our overweight positions on investment

grade and high yield debt. In general, credit selection is increasingly

important but overall valuations don’t seem overstretched,

especially in less cyclical sectors in the high yield universe.

Historically, there is only a loose correlation between rising US

Treasury yields and HY credit spreads. Typically higher government

bond yields are associated more with tighter HY credit spreads (i.e.

a negative correlation) as US Treasury yields tend to rise when

economic conditions are improving and therefore corporate default

rates are low or falling and profitability is strong or increasing.

In addition, any tapering of QE asset purchases and an eventual

increase in policy rates is likely to take place only if the economic

environment is improving. Hence profitability and credit quality

should continue to be supportive of credit markets, even if Treasury

bond yields continue to rise during the rest of this year and next.

These positive fundamentals should limit the extent of any backup

in HY bond yields, or at least provide profitable entry points for long-

term investors, who are able to look past the short-term volatility.

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美國國庫券孳息率上升對信貸市場的投資啟示 Implications of rising US yields on credit markets

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至於新興市場債券（包括亞洲債券）的前景方面，基

於目前估值更趨吸引，加上新興市場國家的信貸基本

因素相對成熟市場更為穩健，從長線投資角度來看，

我們持續看好該資產類別。對比成熟市場貨幣，我們

預期多個新興市場貨幣長線具備升值潛力，而當地貨

幣債券正好為投資者提供涉足該等新興市場貨幣的

機遇。

In terms of the outlook for EM bonds, including Asian bonds,

valuations are now more attractive, and from a longer-term

perspective, we continue to favour this asset class because of

improved credit fundamentals in many EM countries especially

when compared to the developed world. Local currency bonds

also offer exposure to many emerging market currencies that we

expect to appreciate versus developed market currencies over the

long term.

資料來源：美林美銀，截至2013年6月

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as of June 2013

本文件由滙豐環球投資管理（香港）有限公司提供

投資附帶風險。過去的業績並不代表將來的表現。請參閱銷售文件以便獲取其他資料，包括風險因素。此文件並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會批閱。

本文件只提供一般性資料，文件內所載的觀點，在任何情況下均不應被視為滙豐環球投資管理（香港）有限公司（「滙豐環球投資」）的促銷或建議。滙豐環球投資及滙豐集團對任何依賴本文而引致的損失概不負責。有意投資者應就個別投資項目的適合程度或其他因素尋求獨立的意見。本文件內的資料乃取自滙豐環球投資合理地相信可靠的來源。然而，無論明示或暗示，滙豐環球投資不保證、擔保或代表本文件內該等資料的準確性、有效性或完整性。

This article is provided by HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited

Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please refer to the offering document for further details including the risk factors. The document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.

The document is prepared for general information purposes only. All views expressed cannot be construed as an offer or recommendation by HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) limited (“AMHK”). AMHK and HSBC Group shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of the particular investment. AMHK has based this document on information obtained from sources it reasonably believes to be reliable. However, AMHK does not warrant, guarantee or represent, expressly or by implication, the accuracy, validity or completeness of such information.

30

25

20

違約率

(%)

Def

ault

Rat

e (%

)

15

10

5

0

五月May1999

五月May2001

五月May2003

五月May2005

五月May2007

五月May2009

五月May2011

五月May2013

高收益債券違約率維持低企High yield default rates are low

新興市場高收益債券

Emerging market high yield bonds

美國高收益債券

US high yield bonds

歐洲高收益債券

European high yield bonds

我們預期多個新興市場貨幣長線具備升值潛力

We expect appreciation potential in a number of emerging market currencies over the long term

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市場憂慮美國聯儲局可能開始撤出近年針對金融體系的非常規貨幣刺激措施，導致美國國庫券孳息率上升及資產市場顯著波動。Concern that the US Federal Reserve may begin to withdraw the extraordinary monetary stimulus applied to the financial system in recent years has led to higher US Treasury yields and considerable volatility in asset markets.

人民幣債券前景依然秀麗Outlook for RMB bonds remains robust

滙豐環球投資管理觀點Views from HSBC Global Asset Management

Geoffrey Lunt

滙豐環球投資管理董事兼高級投資產品經理（債券）Director, Senior Product Specialist for Fixed Income, HSBC Global Asset Management

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在波動市況下，離岸人民幣債券市場表現理想，年初

至今上升2.4%，而新興市場債券則下跌10.5%1。

人民幣債券信貸質素良好、存續期短、孳息率吸引，

而且發行人的地域分佈廣泛，乃此資產類別逐漸受投

資者青睞的主要原因，並視人民幣債券為中長線投資

的理想選擇。

離岸人民幣債券在近期波動的市況下 表現如何？

離岸人民幣債券表現相對理想。雖然孳息率上

升，但整體市場回報仍然跑贏其他新興債券市

場。此資產類別的存續期較短，因而對利率風險及美

國國庫券孳息率變動的敏感度較其他信貸市場為低。

事實上，美國國庫券與離岸人民幣債券的過往價格走

勢 呈 現 反 向 相 關 性（自2011年 初 起 其 相 關 系 數

為 -0.3）2。因此，近期有關美國可能加息及國庫券孳

息率攀升的憂慮對離岸人民幣債券的影響甚微，而此

特質對國際投資者而言極為吸引。

Throughout the volatility, offshore RMB bond markets have held up

well, and returned 2.4% this year, while emerging market bonds

have fallen by 10.5%1.

Good credit quality, low duration, attractive yields, and geographical

diversification of issuers are some of the major reasons why

investors are increasingly drawn to this asset class, and should

consider RMB bonds as a medium- to long-term opportunity.

How have offshore RMB bonds performed through the recent market volatility?

Offshore RMB bonds have held up relatively well. Yields

have risen but returns overall have outperformed other

emerging bond markets. This asset class has a relatively low

duration, and is thus less sensitive to interest rate risk and the

movement of US Treasury yields than other credit markets. In fact,

US Treasury and offshore RMB bonds have historically displayed a

negative correlation in price (-0.3 since the beginning of 2011)2. As

a result, the recent concern about rising interest rates and Treasury

yields has not had as much impact. This in itself has been a

significant draw for international investors.

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%一月Jan

2011五月May

2011九月Sep

2011一月Jan

2012五月May

2012九月Sep

2012一月Jan

2013五月May

2013

資料來源：滙豐環球投資管理，2013年6月

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management; as of June 2013

亞洲主流貨幣計值債券與離岸人民幣債券孳息率比較 Yield comparison between Asian hard currency bonds vs offshore RMB bonds

摩根大通亞洲美元信貸指數（投資級別）孳息率

JP Morgan USD Asia Credit Index (IG) Yield

滙豐離岸人民幣債劵指數孳息率

HSBC CNH Bond Index Yield

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此外，投資者亦看好此資產類別的基本因素，包括信

貸質素良好、孳息率吸引及貨幣具備升值潛力。

In addition, investors have been attracted by the asset class

fundamentals such as good credit quality, attractive yields and

potential currency appreciation.

1) 資料來源：彭博，截至2013年6月25日，以美元計；有關指數指滙豐離岸人民幣債券指數及摩根大通環球新興市場債券總回報指數

2) 資料來源：彭博，截至2013年6月25日

1) Source: Bloomberg as of 25 June 2013, in USD terms; indices referred to HSBC Offshore RMB Bond index and JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return

2) Source: Bloomberg as of 25 June 2013

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近期市場對中國收緊信貸的憂慮對 人民幣債券市場有何影響？

近期內地銀行同業貨幣市場利率大幅上升，

加深投資者對中國經濟進一步放緩的憂慮。

利率飆升由一系列原因造成，包括季節性因素、政府

加強管制銀行同業之間的債券交易及影子銀行活動的

影響，以及資本流入 ／外匯利差交易銳減。

雖然中國人民銀行承諾維持市場穩定，有助紓緩流動

資金緊絀的局面，但鑒於當局加強抑制金融風險的舉

措，並減少對信貸主導的投資之依賴，去槓桿化預期

仍會持續。

收緊流動性 ／信貸狀況及融資成本上升，將對經濟增

長構成下行風險，並增加違約風險。然而，鑒於境內

市場對貸款融資的憂慮更為顯著，這些潛在風險料對

境內市場造成更大的影響。相比之下，離岸人民幣債

券市場發行人信貸質素較為穩健，令此資產類別較少

受上述不利因素影響，因此，我們預期該市場的違約

風險不會大幅上升。

銀行收緊境內市場的貸款活動，可能導致內地企業透

過債券市場融資。此舉或推升離岸人民幣債券的發行

量，從而提高市場的流動性及令其更趨多元化，進一

步吸引環球投資者。

How has the recent credit crunch concern in China affected the RMB bond market?

The recent spike in interbank money market rates has

compounded investor worries over a further slowdown in

the Chinese economy. This phenomenon had a number of causes

including seasonal factors, the impact of tightened supervision of

interbank bond transactions and shadow banking activities, as well

as a sharp slowdown in capital inflows/FX carry trades.

While the liquidity squeeze has eased, helped by The People's

Bank of China (PBoC)’s pledge to maintain market stability, de-

leveraging will likely continue as authorities crack down on financial

risks in the system and reduce reliance on credit driven investment.

Tighter liquidity/credit conditions and higher funding costs could

pose downside risks to growth and increase default risks. However,

these should apply more significantly to the onshore market, where

lending concerns are far more pressing. The offshore RMB bond

market is still protected somewhat by the relatively strong credit

quality of issuers, and we do not anticipate a significant rise in

default risks in this market.

Tighter lending practices by banks in the onshore market may lead

to mainland companies seeking financing via debt capital markets.

This may result in an increase in offshore RMB bond issuance. This

could lead to greater diversification and the liquidity in the offshore

RMB market, making the asset class a more compelling opportunity

to global investors.

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此資產類別的前景如何，投資離岸人民幣債券有何好處？

離岸人民幣債券前景秀麗，具備多項利好因

素，包括市場增長強勁。離岸人民幣債券市場

自成立以來大幅增長，目前規模已達約5,000億人民

幣，相比2010年少於500億人民幣，市場規模於過

去短短兩年半增長10倍之多。截至2013年6月5日，

年初至今發行的離岸人民幣債券總額已達1,850億人

民幣，比去年同期高出約50%。

此外，此資產類別持續獲前述基本因素支持：即存續

期較短、孳息率吸引、發行人地域分佈廣泛、信貸質

素良好及貨幣具備升值潛力。

What is the outlook for this asset class and what are the benefits of investing in offshore RMB bonds?

The outlook for offshore RMB bonds has several positive

drivers, including strong growth in the asset class. The

offshore RMB bond market has grown considerably since its

inception and now stands at around RMB 500 billion, compared to

a market size of less than RMB 50 billion in 2010, representing a

10x increase in just two and a half years. As at 5 June 2013, the

year-to-date gross issuance of offshore RMB bonds has reached

RMB 185 billion, which is around 50% higher than the figure

recorded during the same period last year.

In addition, the asset class continues to be supported by the factors

mentioned earlier: low duration, attractive yields, geographical

diversification of issuers, good credit quality and potential currency

appreciation.

人民幣債券前景依然秀麗 Outlook for RMB bonds remains robust

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本文件由滙豐環球投資管理（香港）有限公司提供

投資附帶風險。過去的業績並不代表將來的表現。請參閱銷售文件以便獲取其他資料，包括風險因素。此文件並未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會批閱。

本文件只提供一般性資料，文件內所載的觀點，在任何情況下均不應被視為滙豐環球投資管理 (香港 )有限公司 (“滙豐環球投資”)的促銷或建議。滙豐環球投資及滙豐集團對任何依賴本文而引致的損失概不負責。有意投資者應就個別投資項目的適合程度或其他因素尋求獨立的意見。本文件內的資料乃取自滙豐環球投資合理地相信可靠的來源。然而，無論明示或暗示，滙豐環球投資不保證、擔保或代表本文件內該等資料的準確性、有效性或完整性。

This article is provided by HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited

Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please refer to the offering document for further details including the risk factors. The document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.

The document is prepared for general information purposes only. All views expressed cannot be construed as an offer or recommendation by HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) limited (“AMHK”). AMHK and HSBC Group shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any person considering an investment should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of the particular investment. AMHK has based this document on information obtained from sources it reasonably believes to be reliable. However, AMHK does not warrant, guarantee or represent, expressly or by implication, the accuracy, validity or completeness of such information.

儘管貨幣升值可能是一個漸進過程，但仍屬利好因

素。對投資者而言，較短的存續期令此資產類別在加

息環境下更具吸引力。

此外，國際投資者亦看重此資產類別的投資分佈更趨

多元，而且信貸質素良好。離岸人民幣債券一般由中

國及環球企業發行，而當中以後者較多。發行人包括

企業、金融機構、主權國家及超國家機構。這意味離

岸人民幣債券市場與中國市場的相關性較低，並較少

受中國不利的消息影響。另一方面，離岸人民幣債券

市場與其他信貸市場及資產類別的相關系數亦較低，

顯示投資離岸人民幣債券，有助投資者分散組合風

險，尤其在短期市況料持續波動的前提下更具投資價

值。

Currency appreciation continues to be positive factor, though it is

likely to be gradual. The low duration nature of the market will

continue to be a draw for investors worried about a rising interest

rate environment.

For international investors, the increasing diversification and credit

quality of this asset class will be important too. Issuance of offshore

RMB bonds is generally made up of Chinese and global issuers,

with a skew towards the latter. The constituents include corporates,

financials, sovereign and supranational entities. What this means is

that the offshore RMB bond market is less correlated and thus less

impacted by any negative news flow in China. It also has a relatively

low correlation to other credit markets and asset classes. This

suggests that an allocation to offshore RMB bonds can help

diversify investor portfolios, which is valuable in light of trends that

indicate market volatility will likely continue in the near term.

人民幣債券為中長線投資的理想選擇

RMB bonds as a medium- to long-term opportunity

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量化寬鬆退市對債券市場有何影響？ 投資者應如何應對？What would QE tapering do to the bond markets and what can investors do about it?

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Chairman Bernanke surprised the markets by his clear signal about the time table of the asset purchase tapering. The US 10-year Treasury bonds yield continued to rise and USD sustained its upward momentum. Market is concerned that the indication of QE tapering may lead to end of a low interest rate environment. US Treasury yield shot up from a low of 1.6% in May 2013 to 2.6% as of July 2013.

聯儲局主席伯南克明確傳達撤銷買債計劃的期限，令市場感到意外。10年期美國國庫債券孳息率持續上升，美元維持強勢。市場擔憂量化寬鬆退市或意味著低息環境將會走向終結。美國國庫債券孳息率由2013年5月低位1.6%急升至2013年7月底的2.6%。

What is QE?

Quantitative Easing refers to the action taken by the US central bank to purchase bonds from banks and other institutions with newly created money, injecting a large amount of funds into the financial system. The bond-buying action raises the prices of bonds and lowers their yield. In theory, the goal of a greater amount of funds and lower yields is to promote increased lending, investment and consumption activity.

量化寬鬆的背景

量化寬鬆政策是指美國聯儲局透過 新發行的貨幣向銀行及其他機構購買債券，從而對金融體系注入大量流動資金。購債行動推高債券價格並壓低債券孳息率。理論上，增加資金供應及壓低孳息率的目標是促進借貸、 投資及消費活動的增長。

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What is the implication of quantitative easing tapering for Hong Kong investors?

Interest rates across the world have been at historical low level

since the financial crisis in 2008, including Hong Kong’s benchmark

interbank rate, HIBOR.

Since Hong Kong’s monetary policy is correlated to the US,

customers who are interested in hedging the value of their

investments against a potential rise in interest rate could consider

floating rate investments, such as those linked to HIBOR.

Rather than paying a fixed rate of coupon, HIBOR floating rate

investments offer interest payments which are reset periodically

with rates tied to HIBOR.

量化寬鬆退市對香港投資者有甚麼啟示？

自2008年金融危機以來，全球利率普遍處於歷史低

位 水 平， 包 括 香 港 基 準 利 率 香 港 銀 行 同 業 拆 息

(HIBOR)。

由於香港貨幣政策與美國密切相關，客戶如希望採取

對策以保護投資價值免受加息的潛在影響，可考慮購

買浮息投資產品，例如與 HIBOR 掛鉤的產品。

HIBOR 浮息存款證並非支付固定票息，而是定期根

據最新的 HIBOR 利率重新設定派息率。

量化寬鬆退市對債券市場有何影響？ 投資者應如何應對？ What would QE tapering do to the bond markets and what can investors do about it?

資料來源：滙豐研究，彭博

Source: HSBC Research, Bloomberg

10

8

6

4

2

00.38357

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0.14

9.97

%

3個月期HIBOR歴史數據圖（1993年至2013年）HIBOR 3-month historical chart (1993-2013)

平均 Average: ~ 3.42

(6月June 30, 1998)

(12月Dec 31, 2009) (6月Jun 24, 2013)

近期數據Recent reading

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US

Dm

-4

-67月Jul2012

10月Oct2012

1月Jan2013

4月Apr2013

7月Jul2013

新興市場債券拋售狀況緩和The selloff in EM bonds has been moderating

資料來源：滙豐，EPFR

Source: HSBC, EPFR

資金流總量

Total flows

本地貨幣債券資金流

Local currency bond flows

硬貨幣債券資金流

Hard currency bond flows

資金外流新興市場債券

過去一個月左右，新興市場債券基金錄得約100億美

元資金外流。不過，7月初的數據顯示市場拋售的狀

況趨於緩和。

由於全球經濟增長加快以及聯儲局宣佈可能撤銷第三

輪量化寬鬆政策，新興市場股市及債券均出現資金外

流及大幅波動。鑒於新興市場持續波動，投資者在市

況回穩前或會保持謹慎。

不過，如果聯儲局撤銷量化寬鬆計劃是因為美國經濟

能夠依靠國內動力維持增長勢頭，以及美國消費持續

復甦的話，這實際上可能對新興市場有利，特別是那

些對美國消費較為依賴的市場，長期而言其財務表現

將會改善。

事實上，許多新興市場債券的估值較低，在市場波動

性降低後，估值將具有吸引力。

值得強調的是，長期而言，新興市場吸引外國投資者

進入的主要原因仍存在，這些優勢包括：新興市場佔

全球國內生產總值的份額持續上升、人口結構利好、

資產負債狀況穩健以及貨幣多元化。

最後需要指出的是，雖然債券投資可能會出現短期波

動，但只要發行人不發生違約，投資者持有債券直至

到期就能夠取回全部本金。

Fund outflows in the EM bonds

In the past month or so, emerging market bond funds recorded

outflows of around USD10 billion, although the selloff seems to be

moderating based on the figures in early July.

Emerging Markets, both equities and bonds alike, have experienced

fund outflows and much volatility due to the slower-than-expected

pace of global growth and the timeline of the Federal Reserve’s

likely changes to its current QE programme. The volatility in

emerging markets is likely to keep many investors on the side-lines

until market stability returns.

But if the Federal Reserve’s QE programme is to be wound up as

the US economic growth becomes self-sustaining and the country

resumes its consumption, this may be positive for emerging

markets, especially those with certain levels of dependencies on

the US consumers, their financial performance could improve in the

long run.

Valuations of emerging markets bonds have actually been lowered

in many emerging markets, and could become attractive once

volatility reduces.

It is important to note that the long-term reasons that attracted

foreign investors to emerging markets remain: emerging markets’

rising share of global GDP, favourable demographics, healthy

balance sheets, and currency diversification are powerful forces.

Last but not least, bond investment may experience short-term

volatility, but investors will be paid back their principal investment

upon bond maturity, as long as there is no issuer default.

18

量化寬鬆退市對債券市場有何影響？ 投資者應如何應對？ What would QE tapering do to the bond markets and what can investors do about it?

100%

90%

80%

60%

40%

50%

20%

30%

10%

70%

01992 2001 2011

資料來源：滙豐，CEIC

Source: HSBC, CEIC

國有控股企業佔服務業附加值的%

State-controlled enterprises as % of services sector value-added

國有控股企業佔工業 生產的%

State-controlled enterprises as % of industrial output

國有企業在許多行業仍佔主導地位SOEs still dominate in many sectors

改革將有助重振私營企業的活力以及提高生產效率

Reforms should invigorate the private sector and improve efficiency, lifting growth

中國硬著陸風險微

過去5年支持新興市場資產取得最佳表現的兩大要素

已經消退。投資者目前不僅擔憂美國貨幣政策，亦需

要擔憂中國經濟增長放緩的潛在影響。

由於中國新領導人傾向採取改革而非刺激的方式保持

經濟增長，短期內或會帶來有限影響，滙豐已將今年

中 國 國 內 生 產 總 值 增 長 率 預 測 由8.2% 下 調 至

7.4%。雖然有投資者或擔心中國經濟硬著陸的風

險，即經濟增長將降至7% 以下，但滙豐認為這可能

性極低。

中國新領導人傾向採取改革而非刺激的方式保持經濟

增長。改革議程包括金融、財政、放寬監管及城市化

改革等領域。滙豐認為這些改革將有助重振私營企業

的活力以及提高生產效率，為中長期前景帶來支持。

Hard landing in China is unlikely

Two anchors that have supported emerging market assets for the

best part of the past five years are gone: not only are investors

concerned about US monetary policy, they now also need to worry

about the potential of slower growth in China.

HSBC has lowered its China GDP forecast from 8.2% to 7.4% for

this year as the new leadership’s preference for reform over

stimulus to sustain growth may have a limited impact in the short

term. While some investors worried over a risk of a hard landing,

with growth falling below 7%, HSBC thinks this is highly unlikely.

Beijing’s new leaders prefer to use reforms rather than stimulus to

sustain growth. The reform agenda includes financial, fiscal,

deregulation, and urbanisation reforms. HSBC believes that these

reforms should invigorate the private sector and improve efficiency,

lifting growth prospects in the medium to long term.

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這些措施一旦落實，將有助重振私營企業的活力以及

提高生產效率，為中長期前景帶來支持。金融及財政

改革是解決地方政府債務、影子銀行及其他結構性問

題的唯一辦法，而市場對此幾乎沒有異議。

此外，滙豐認為中央政府專注於加快改革進程，相關

措施一旦落實，將有助提高生產效率以及重振私營企

業的活力。中長期而言，這有助於中國經濟走上持續

及穩定的增長道路。然而，改革帶來的影響需要一段

時間才能夠顯現，因此短期內經濟增長或會放緩，特

別是鑒於目前全球需求疲弱。

打破國有企業的壟斷是改革進程面臨的最大挑戰之

一，降低私人投資的進入門檻將有助提高投資效率及

加快技術進步。

Once implemented, these measures should invigorate the private

sector and improve efficiency, lifting growth prospects in the

medium to long term, and few would disagree that financial and

fiscal reforms are the only solution to local government debt,

shadow banking and other structural problems.

HSBC also believes that Beijing’s focus on speeding up reforms

will, once implemented, improve efficiency as well as revitalise

private business. This will put China on a sustainable and steady

growth path in the medium to long term. However, it will take time

for the impact of the reforms to filter through, so growth is likely to

stay lower in the near term, especially given weak global demand.

Breaking the monopoly of state-owned enterprises – one of the

biggest challenges for the reform process – and lowering entry

barriers for private investments should improve investment

efficiency and speed up the technology advancement.

16%

14%

12%

8%

4%

6%

2%

10%

01996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

資料來源：CEIC，滙豐

Source: CEIC, HSBC

國企

SOEs

私企

Private enterprises

私營企業的效率較高（資產回報率）Private enterprises is more efficient (return on assets)

以下領域的私人投資或出現增長：Private investment is likely to be increased in the following areas:

1) 鐵路：受惠鐵道部分拆及後續的投資體系改革 Railways: Benefit from the split of Ministry of Railways and the subsequent investment system reform

2) 基建建設：由於財政約束及沉重的債務負擔，地方政府將邀請私人資本參與城市基建投資 Infrastructure construction: With fiscal constraints and high debt burdens, local governments should invite private

investment in urban infrastructure

3) 服務業包括教育、金融及電訊的消費需求潛力巨大，有機會創造大量的就業職位 Service sectors such as education, finance and telecoms where there are huge potential consumer demand and

the opportunity to create large numbers of jobs

20

Concerns that the US would taper quantitative easing policies sooner than expected have driven a heavy selloff in global equities. In addition, disappointing data out of China and concerns over financial sector risks following a spike in domestic interbank rates have also hit investor sentiment, leading to sharp falls in Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets.

市場到底何去何從？Where will the market go? 景順投資管理亞洲有限公司之觀點Views from Invesco Asset Management Asia Limited

投資者擔心美國可能提早縮減量化寬鬆政策，令環球股市出現大幅拋售。另一方面，中國經濟數據失色，市場憂慮金融行業的風險驟升，令銀行拆息飆升，打擊投資情緒，令亞太區（日本除外）股市顯著下挫。

資料來源：景順，Factset，數據自2013年5月31日至6月28日。 以當地貨幣計算的本地股市回報。請注意： 恒生（中國）代表恒生 中國企業指數而非整體恒生指數

Source: Invesco, Factset, data from 31 May to 28 June 2013. Local index returns in local currency terms. Note: Hang Seng (China) refers to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index instead of overall Hang Seng index

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

中國A股China

A-Shares

-15.6%

-12.2%

-7.1% -6.9%-4.9% -4.9%

-3.2% -2.5% -2.3% -1.6%

0.2%

-7.1%-7.9%

恒生（中國）

Hang Seng (China)

菲律賓Philippines

恒生HangSeng

泰國Thailand

南韓SouthKorea

印尼Indonesia

新加坡Singapore

印度India

澳洲Australia

台灣Taiwan

新西蘭New

Zealand

馬來西亞Malaysia

亞太區（日本除外）股市於2013年6月調整Asia Pacific ex Japan equities corrected in June 2013

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雖然我們認為亞洲（日本除外）的長線基調依然頗為

強健，估值亦見吸引，但投資者在短期波動市況中投

資股票時仍要小心行事。

疲弱的亞洲貨幣

在很多情況下，避險情緒和資金流出，均會導致貨幣

貶值，令地區市場更為波動。隨著全球大宗商品價格

下跌，商品相關貨幣如澳元、馬來西亞零吉和印尼盾

均見貶值，而對外情況較差的經濟體系，如印度和泰

國，其貨幣貶值亦難倖免。

We believe that fundamentals in Asia ex-Japan are still relatively

robust in the long run, but investors should be careful when they

invest into the equity markets amid short-term volatility despite the

attractive valuations.

Weaker Asian currencies

Overall risk aversion and outflows from markets have led to weaker

currencies in many cases, adding to the extreme volatility seen in

regional markets. In keeping with the drop in global commodity

prices, declines have been seen in commodity-linked currencies

such as the Australian dollar, Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian

rupiah as well as in economies with somewhat weaker external

positions such as India and Thailand.

US growth is the key to quantitative easing

The introduction of a data-dependent path to US monetary policy

changes has no doubt increased the volatility within markets, with

investors assessing risks relating to a change in what had been

presumed to be a low interest rate environment over the medium

term. Nevertheless, Fed tapering is likely to be gradual, given the

level of unemployment and soft pace of recovery in the overall

economy. Market expectations are shifting to an exit from overall

purchases in mid-2014, with rate hikes commencing sometime in

2015.

美國經濟增長是量化寬鬆的關鍵

美國引進依賴數據走勢而作出改變的貨幣政策，毫無

疑問加劇了市場的波動；投資者正在推敲，一個在中

期被視為理所當然的低息環境，其所出現的變化會引

發的風險。儘管如此，鑒於整體經濟之失業水平和復

甦步伐緩和，聯儲局可能逐步退市。市場預期聯儲局

會於2014年中停止購買資產，而利率會在2015年開

始趨升。

資料來源：景順，Factset，由2013年5月31日至6月28日

Source: Invesco, Factset, from 31 May to 28 June 2013

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%印度盧比

INR

-5.0%

-2.2% -1.9%-1.3% -1.1%

-0.3% -0.2% -0.1%

1.7%

-2.4%-3.2%

澳元AUD

紐元NZD

泰銖THB

菲律賓披索PHP

馬來西亞零吉MYR

印尼盾IDR

南韓圜KRW

新加坡元SGD

新台幣TWD

人民幣CNY

日圓JPY

-4.5%

貨幣 – 截至2013年6月28日之按月份計變化Currencies – one-month change as at 28 June 2013

22

While adjustment to this policy shift is leading to dislocations in

markets that have become frothy during the prolonged period of

monetary expansion, the recognition that eventual rate hikes will be

gradual should eventually help to stabilise sentiment. Moreover,

the improved US growth prospects that would be the prerequisite

for quantitative easing exit should ultimately support risk assets,

including emerging market, Asian equities and currencies, not to

mention a more positive backdrop for Asian exporters as currency

weakens.

Issues to monitor in China

One issue that has been of particular concern has been the

explosion of off-balance sheet and non-bank lending in the financial

sector. While People’s Bank of China (PBoC) officials have stressed

that liquidity risks are controllable and that they will carefully monitor

money market rates going forward, the market has interpreted the

absence of liquidity provision by the PBoC as a sign of its

determination to raise the cost of borrowing and to force

deleveraging of the financial system in order to control risks from

credit expansion.

While all of this is weighing on equity sentiment in the near term,

particularly within the banking sector, we believe that the

government stance suggests that it is serious about rebalancing

the sources of growth through structural reforms and deleveraging,

which could carry long-term benefits for both the economy and for

Chinese equities. Recent speeches from authorities have reiterated

the commitment to reforms designed to open up the financial

sector through interest rate deregulation and further exchange rate

liberalisation, as well as reduce the role of state enterprise in the

economy through the promotion of the private sector and services

sector. All of this should be a long-term positive for China’s

economy, albeit creating short-term market uncertainty.

Fundamentals are still strong

Although we cannot rule out further volatility as investors adapt to

the new monetary stance on the one hand and China’s lower

growth trajectory on the other, it is worth noting that fundamentals

in Asia ex-Japan are still relatively robust. Prior to the onset of

market fluctuations, most economies in the region were poised for

a moderate recovery this year with lower inflationary risks. Asian

governments are nearly free from external debts, following the

lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis and are much better

positioned versus selective counterparts in Latin America and

emerging Europe, where asset prices and currencies have seen

deeper slumps in response to the change in the Fed policy.

長時間的擴張性貨幣政策經已令市場泡沫化，貨幣政

策轉向將導致市場出現混亂的情況；若市場認同最終

利率上升將是循序漸進的，應有助於穩定市場情緒。

此外，美國經濟增長的前景，是脫離量化寬鬆政策的

先決條件，這最終會支持風險資產，包括新興市場及

亞洲股票及貨幣；而貨幣貶值也為亞洲出口商創造更

為有利的環境。

留意中國的問題

在金融體系中，資產負債表外和非銀行的借貸泛濫，

備受關注。雖然中國人民銀行官員經已強調，流動資

金風險是可控的，而當局會小心監察貨幣市場利率走

向；然而此舉被市場演繹為人行藉拒絕提供流動資

金，向市場昭示其決心，以提高借貸成本和推動金融

系統內的去槓桿化，以控制信貸擴張的風險。

雖然在短期內這些政策將對市場構成壓力，尤其是銀

行業；但我們相信，政府的立場表明，它認真看待結

構改革和削債，令經濟增長的來源得以再整合，長遠

有利經濟和中國上市的股票。當局最近的言論，重申

開放金融市場的承諾，包括撤銷利率管制、讓人民幣

匯率進一步自由化、以及通過推廣私營企業和服務行

業，減少國有企業在國民經濟中所扮演的角色。以上

措施，儘管在短期內令市場更加不明朗，長遠而言對

中國經濟發展有利。

基本因素依然強勁

投資者一方面需時適應政府新的貨幣政策立場，另一

方面又要面對中國經濟增長減速的現實，我們不排除

市況會進一步波動；但亞洲（日本除外）的基本因素

仍然相對強勁，值得我們留意。在最近金融動盪爆發

之前，區內大多數經濟體預期今年的通脹風險較低，

有望溫和復甦。拉丁美洲和歐洲的新興市場，其資產

價格及匯率因應聯儲局政策改變而大幅下挫。與之相

比，亞洲市場財政遠較穩健。亞洲各國政府從亞洲金

融危機中汲取教訓，幾乎沒有外債。

市場到底何去何從？ Where will the market go?

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除非另加說明，所有數據來自景順並截至2013年6月28日

All data are sourced from Invesco dated 28 June 2013 unless otherwise stated

本文由景順投資管理亞洲有限公司提供

本文件並未被香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會所審閱。投資涉及風險，過往的表現對未來的業績並不具指示作用。概不保證所作的任何預測將會實現。是否依賴本檔所載的資訊由閣下自行決定。本文件並不構成對未來事件的預估、研究或投資建議、也不應該被視為購買、出售任何證券或採用任何投資策略的建議。本推廣件所表達意見僅反映景順於編製材料當日的判斷，並可隨時因隨後情況變化而更改。本文件所載的信息及意見取自景順認為可靠的專有和非專有來源，並不一定涵蓋所有資料，亦不保證其準確性。本資料僅作資料用途，並不構成對任何人士投資任何景順基金的要約或邀請，亦非就有關要約而編製。本資料所有研究分析均由景順就其本身目的取得，並可能據此行事，所取得的任何研究結果只屬偶然。

The article provided by Invesco Asset Management Asia Limited

This material has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Any opinions contained herein, which reflect Invesco’s judgment at this date, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Invesco to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any Invesco fund and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Any research in this material has been procured and may have been acted on by Invesco for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally.

資料來源：瑞銀，2013年6月20日

Source: UBS, as at 20 June 2013

* 基於保留進口，因為新加坡和香港的進口當中大部分用作轉口 Based on retained import for Singapore and Hong Kong given the significant re-export portion

† 2009-2012年平均 2009-2012 average

# 財政年度 Fiscal year

從歷史角度看，亞太區股市於近期的調整後，估值仍

然利好。就市盈率而言，現時亞太區（日本除外）股

票以2013年10.8倍的市盈率交易，而市場共識今年

盈利增長15.4%。同樣地，亞太區股市的歷史市帳率

為1.6倍，而10年和30年平均的市帳率為1.8倍，這

些數據為亞太區股市帶來支持。

Another positive note we should take from the recent correction is

that regional valuation remains accommodative versus its historical

standard. On price-to-earnings (PE) terms, Asia ex-Japan is now

trading at 10.8x 2013 PE, with consensus earnings growth of

15.4%. The region is equally supportive as measured by price-to-

book (PB) metrics, at 1.6x trailing PB versus 10-year and 30-year

average of 1.8x.

外匯儲備（美元：10億計）

FX reserves (US$ bn)

進口覆蓋* （月份數目）

Imports coverage*

(no. of months)

經常帳佔國內生產總值%

Currentaccount as % to GDP

資本帳佔國內生產總值%

Capital account as

% of GDP

外債佔外匯 儲備%

External debt as % of FX reserves

信貸增長率減去名義國內生產總值

增長率%†

Credit growth % Minus nominal GDP growth %†

中國 China 3,311.6 20 2.3 -0.2 0.2 4.3

香港 Hong Kong 317.4 27 1.3 7.5 3.3 9.9

印度 # India# 259.7 6 -4.2 3.6 1.3 6.0

印尼 Indonesia 112.8 7 -2.8 2.8 2.2 5.3

南韓 South Korea 327.0 8 3.8 -2.8 1.3 -0.9

馬來西亞Malaysia 139.7 9 6.4 -2.5 0.6 3.2

菲律賓 Philippines 83.8 16 2.9 2.3 0.7 4.2

新加坡 Singapore 259.3 17 18.6 -10.2 N/A 6.1

台灣 Taiwan 403.2 18 10.3 -6.6 0.3 -0.9

泰國 Thailand 181.6 9 0.7 3.2 0.7 4.1

日本 Japan 1,268.1 18 1.0 -1.8 2.6 -5.5

巴西 Brazil 362.1 11 -2.4 -0.1 121.7 8.3

墨西哥 Mexico 153.5 0.4 -1.0 4.0 149.2 7.4

土耳其 Turkey 98.3 0.4 -6.1 -0.0 342.8 24.1

宏觀評估 Macro Assessment

24

Global equity markets sold off sharply in June, resulting in generally disappointing second quarter performances for Asian markets and in particular, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Although the first six weeks of the quarter were promising with US economic data improving and China looking to a pick up in growth from 1Q pace, market sentiment and China news flow deteriorated.

6月，全球股市大幅下滑，導致亞洲市場（尤其是香港和上海）第二季度的表現普遍令人失望。在美國經濟數據好轉，及中國經濟增長有望較第一季度提速的情況下，第二季度前六週的表現不錯，然而市場情緒惡化，且中國不斷傳出負面消息。

標準普爾觀點Views by Standard & Poor’s

近期市場出現短暫回吐，而非逆轉Recent market selloff: A pause, not a reversal

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China added to monetary tightening worries when the Shanghai

Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) spiked up. The jump in SHIBOR

rates has occurred on occasion triggered by events and also holiday

periods where companies and individuals withdraw funds (this

latest event coincided with the June 10-12 Duanwu festival holiday).

However, this time round, with the fiscal-half year closing soon,

and with authorities keen to clamp down on shadow banking

activity, the jump in the SHIBOR could stay at relatively elevated

levels for a few months. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) looks

to be intent on punishing the provincial banks who are the net

borrowers in the interbank market and who have not been managing

risks and have gotten around lending restrictions through the

shadow banking system.

上海銀行同業拆息 (SHIBOR) 急升，令市場對中國貨

幣緊縮倍感憂慮。歷史數據顯示，個別事件以及節日

期間公司和個人提取資金（最近一次為6月10日至12

日的端午節假期）有時會引發 SHIBOR 急升；然而，

今次拆息急升則源於上半財年臨近結束且當局渴望取

締影子銀行活動，因此SHIBOR 的急升或會於數月

內會保持在相對較高的水平。省級銀行因在銀行同業

拆放市場中作為淨借方、未進行風險管理且透過影子

銀行系統避開貸款限制，中國人民銀行似乎有意懲治

相關銀行。

亞洲股市迎來艱難的第二季度（截至2013年6月21日）A difficult Q2 for Asian equities (as of June 21, 2013)

基於主要指數的回報 (%)Returns based on main indices (%)

季初至今QTD

年初至今YTD

從52週高位回落Pullback fr. 52-wk High

標普澳洲證交所200指數 S&P/ASX 200 index -4.6% 1.9% -9.2%

滬深300指數 CSI 300 index -7.1% -8.1% -16.5%

上海證券交易所綜合股價指數 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index -7.3% -8.6% -14.8%

恒生中國企業指數 Hang Seng China Enterprises Index -15.2% -19.2% -24.4%

恒生指數 Hang Seng Index -9.1% -10.6% -14.9%

標普CNX NIFTY指數 S&P/CNX NIFTY Index -0.3% -4.0% -8.4%

雅加達綜合股價指數 Jakarta Composite Index -8.6% 4.6% -13.4%

日經225指數 Nikkei 225 Index 6.7% 27.3% -15.3%

馬來西亞吉隆坡證交所綜合股價指數 Malaysia KLSE Composite Index 5.0% 4.0% -1.8%

菲律賓證交所綜合股價指數 Philippines PSE Composite Index -9.7% 6.4% -16.4%

富時海峽時報指數 FTSE Straits Times Index -5.6% -1.3% -9.6%

韓國綜合股價指數 South Korea Kospi Composite Index -9.1% -8.7% -10.3%

台灣加權股價指數 Taiwan TAIEX Index -1.6% 1.2% -7.2%

SET指數 SET Insex -10.3% 0.6% -14.8%

標普500指數 S&P 500 Index 1.5% 11.7% -4.6%

斯托克歐洲600指數（歐洲） STOXX Europe 600 Insex (EUR) -4.6% 0.3% -9.7%

資料來源：S&P Capital IQ

Source: S&P Capital IQ

On the US front, the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) meeting minutes

and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s indications that the Fed was looking

to taper its bond purchases sent long-term Treasury yields higher

and triggered a selloff in emerging market bonds. The rise in yields

also sent investors out of high dividend yielding stocks, particularly

REITs.

美國方面，聯儲局會議記錄及主席伯南克的講話表明

聯儲局正在尋求逐漸減少購買債券，進而導致長期國

債收益率上升，並引發新興市場債券的拋售。收益率

上升亦促使投資者紛紛退出高股息收益率股票，尤其

是房地產投資信託基金 (REIT)。

26

Rising interest rate worries are exaggerated

We had written in the prior Q1 note that monetary loosening was

likely peaking in Asia and we continue to maintain this view.

However, we believe the recent worries over a sharp rise in interest

rates triggered by the Fed’s comments have been overdone. The

reason for our view is that global demand growth remains sluggish

and this is reinforced by the revision down in US Q1 GDP growth to

just 1.8% q-o-q from the prior reading of 2.4% q-o-q. In addition,

with ongoing sequestration in fiscal spending, there remains a

downside risk to US GDP growth estimates. Given this scenario,

we think that the Fed is likely to remain mindful of the fragility of US

growth.

In addition, inflation pressures are largely absent. With China

slowing, this would seem all the more apparent with commodity

prices down and energy costs contained. The fact that China’s

Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to fall (-2.6% y-o-y in April)

shows that there is limited production price pressure on inflation.

有關利率上升的憂慮言過其實

我們在之前的第一季度評論中提到亞洲的貨幣寬鬆可

能見頂，目前我們仍保持此觀點。然而，我們認為聯

儲局評論引發有關利率大幅上漲的擔憂可能被誇大，

可見於全球需求增長仍然疲弱，美國第一季度GDP

增長就由之前的按季度增長2.4%降至按季度增長

1.8%。此外，由於財政支出不斷扣押，預期美國

GDP增長仍面臨下行風險。在這種情況下，我們認

為聯儲局可能會繼續關注美國經濟增長的脆弱性。

此外，中國基本上不存在通脹壓力。隨著中國經濟放

緩，商品價格降低且能源成本受控，這種形勢似乎更

加明顯。中國生產者物價指數繼續下跌（4月按年下

跌2.6%），顯示生產物價通脹壓力有限。

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

5月May2010

年增長率

% y

-o-y

%

9月Sep2010

1月Jan2011

5月May2011

9月Sep2011

1月Jan2012

5月May2012

9月Sep2012

1月Jan2013

5月May2013

資料來源：CEIC

Source: CEIC

消費物價指數

CPI

生產者物價指數

PPI

中國大致不存在價格壓力China price pressure remains largely absent

中國銀行業正經歷短暫的改革困難

中國銀行業面臨的主要風險之一在於無法確定某些中

國理財產品虧損的原因。我們認為中國人民銀行的目

標是軟著陸，因此對不良貸款或會寬恕一至兩年。儘

管政府有資源調整小型銀行的資本結構，但我們認

為，政府更希望加強銀行分行管理，銀行不能寄望永

久得到支援。

China’s banking sector reform experiences short-term pain

One of the key risks weighing on the China’s banking sector is the

uncertainty on where the cause of failure of some China’s wealth

management products (WMPs) lies. We see the PBoC targets a

soft landing, hence we believe the recognition of non-performing

loans may be spread over one to two years. While the government

has the resources to recapitalise the small banks, we believe they

will want to reinforce to bank branch managements that there will

no longer be any free lunch.

近期市場出現短暫回吐，而非逆轉 Recent market selloff: A pause, not a reversal

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China’s big four banks have relatively cheap valuations at a weighted

average PB of 0.9x vs. ROE of 19%, which reflects increased asset

quality risks. While investors remain unconvinced by the low

valuations, we believe the big banks remain best positioned to

benefit from a potential upward rerating. This, we believe, will

materialise as China cleans up its banking system risk and improves

transparency over the next six months.

The risk from deteriorating asset quality remains the key concern.

Credit costs have averaged 50 bps for the large banks since 2009.

Assuming non-performing loans (NPLs) jump to 2% (2008 levels)

from the current 1% for the large banks, credit cost would need to

rise to around 120 bps (2008 levels) to maintain provision coverage

above 150% (it is 250%, currently). In this scenario, we estimate

that large banks’ ROEs may decline to the mid-teens level from the

current 19% average.

Given that the large banks’ core capital ratios remain comfortable at

above 9.5%, we do not expect any pressure on this front.

Separately, assuming short-term rates remain elevated, we see

minimal impact to net interest margins (NIMs) as lending rates are

largely reset on an annual basis and given the short duration of their

investment book, we expect market losses to be minimal.

中國四大銀行估值相對較低，加權平均市淨率為0.9

倍， 股 本 回 報 率 為19%， 反 映 出 資 產 質 素 風 險 增

加。由於估值較低，投資者仍持懷疑態度，但我們相

信大型銀行仍處於從潛在的上調評級中獲益的最佳位

置。而且，我們相信這很快就會實現，因為中國正清

理其銀行系統風險，未來六個月透明度亦將隨之

提高。

不斷惡化的資產質素所帶來的風險仍是關鍵問題。自

2009年以來，大型銀行的平均信貸成本為50個點

子。假設大型銀行的不良貸款率從目前的1% 明顯增

加至2%（2008年水平），信貸成本則需上升至120個

點子（2008年水平）左右，從而將撥備覆蓋率維持在

150% 以上（目前為250%）。我們估計，在這種情況

下，大型銀行的股本回報率或從目前19% 的平均水

平下降到中雙位數水平。

因為大型銀行的核心資本比率都保持在9.5% 以上的

充裕水平，所以我們認為在這方面不會有任何壓力。

另外，縱使短期利率居高不下，我們認為這對淨利差

也不會有太大影響，因為貸款利率基本上都是每年重

訂的，而且銀行的投資賬簿以短期居多，所以按市價

計值的損失應該不大。

資料來源：S&P Capital IQ Research

Source: S&P Capital IQ Research

16%

影子銀行違約率 S

had

ow b

anki

ng

def

ault

rat

e

系統不良貸款率(%) System NPLs (%)

1 2 3 4 5 6

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

假定違約率為 9%（與新興亞洲最近的違約率一致）時，不良貸款率為 4%左右，處於可管控水平。At assumed default rate of 9% (in line with recent experiences in emerging Asia), NPLs hit around 4% – a manageable level.

影子銀行風險屬控制範圍內Shadow banking risk is manageable

28

本文件由標準普爾投資顧問服務（香港）有限公司（「標普」）提供

如本報告的中英文版本有不一致的地方，概以英文版本為準。標普及其聯屬公司概不保證翻譯之準確性。我們判斷之假設、意見及估計乃於本資料刊行之日做出，如有更改恕不另行通知。過往表現並非未來表現的指示性依據。此等資料之目的並非邀約或招攬購買或出售任何證券或其他金融工具。此處所提及的證券、金融工具或策略可能並不適合所有投資者。本文所表達的任何意見都是根據誠信善意原則而提供的，如有變更恕不另行通知，而且只是所列刊行日的最新資料。本文件並未考慮閣下的特定投資目標、財務狀況或需求，且並非向閣下提供特定證券、金融票據或策略建議。在根據本文件所載任何建議做出行動前，閣下務須考慮有關建議是否適合閣下的特定情況，倘有必要，則應尋求專家意見。

The article is provided by Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited (“S&P”)

In the case of inconsistencies between the English and Chinese version of this report, the English version prevails. Neither S&P nor its affiliates guarantee the accuracy of the translation, Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only currents as of the stated date of their issue. This material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

近期市場出現短暫回吐，而非逆轉 Recent market selloff: A pause, not a reversal

We see a triple whammy for the small banks. Firstly, asset quality

deteriorates faster than sector average given their higher exposure

to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Secondly, net interest

margins continue to be under pressure, given their dependence on

interbank assets (which account for 20% to 30% of their assets).

Assuming rates stay elevated and we see a gradual winding down

of their off-balance sheet book, we expect NIM pressure of 25 bps

on a half year basis for H213. Hence, we expect the banks to limit

off-balance sheet growth, going ahead. Lastly, as sales of WMPs

slow, we expect fee income growth to slow to single digits.

Buy selectively for positive mid-term view

As a whole, global emerging issues have been sold off. A

deteriorating earnings outlook and depreciating currencies have

hurt global investor appetite for such issues. However, we think the

earnings outlook in Asia ex-Japan remains positive as a whole and

with the MSCI AC Far East ex-Japan trading on a forward PE of

12.7x and 2013 EPS growth of 11.8% (excluding outliers), valuation

appears relatively attractive given S&P 500 forward PE of 14.9x and

operating EPS growth of 6.9% and Dow Jones Stoxx forward PE of

12.6x and EPS growth of 7.0%. We think EPS growth in Asia ex-

Japan is likely to be underpinned by relatively decent average GDP

growth of 6%-7% in 2013 and 2014.

We believe global demand will gradually stand firm and this will

benefit externally-driven economies more. Given relatively low

valuations, we think Korea, China and Hong Kong may outperform

the rest of Asia ex-Japan in H213 as investors begin to look ahead

to 2014.

As we see a period of choppiness for equities, we think a balanced

portfolio strategy for the near term is recommended. Hence, we

favour defensive stocks in the healthcare and utility space, where

cash flow is relatively stable but also note opportunities to pick up

some better positioned cyclical stocks with relatively attractive

valuations as share prices correct. Among these, we like energy

and insurance companies and see potential in selective financials

and industrials.

我們認為，小型銀行將遭受三重打擊。首先，資產質

素惡化的速度已超過行業平均水平，因為中小企業令

其面臨的風險加劇。其次，淨利差繼續面臨壓力，因

為 其 依 賴 於 銀 行 同 業 資 產（佔 其 資 產 的20% 至

30%）。假設利率持續走高，我們認為其資產負債表

外融資將逐步減少，預期2013年下半年的淨利差將

面臨環比下降25個點子的壓力。因此，我們預期銀

行將繼續限制資產負債表外業務的增長。最後，由於

理財產品銷售緩慢，我們預期手續費收入增長將放緩

至個位數。

選擇性入市，因為看好中期市場表現

總體而言，全球新興市場的股票慘遭拋售。收益前景

不斷惡化，貨幣不斷貶值，令全球投資者投資該等股

票的需求受挫。然而，我們認為亞洲（日本除外）的

總體盈利前景仍較為樂觀，MSCI AC 遠東（日本除

外）指數的預期市盈率為12.7倍，2013年的每股盈

利（剔除異常值）增長11.8%，估值看似頗具吸引

力，標普500指數的預期市盈率為14.9倍，每股盈利

增 長6.9%， 而 道 瓊 斯 Stoxx 指 數 的 預 期 市 盈 率 為

12.6倍，每股盈利增長7.0%。我們認為，2013及

2014年6%-7% 的平均 GDP 增長率相對可觀，將為

亞洲（日本除外）的每股盈利增長率提供支撐。

我們相信，全球需求將逐漸企穩，並令外部推動型經

濟體獲得豐厚的益處。鑒於估值相對較低，我們認

為，隨著不少投資者開始展望2014年，於2013年下

半年，韓國、中國及香港的表現或好過亞洲（日本除

外）其他國家或地區。

因為股價或在一段時間內呈波動局面，我們建議短期

內應採取均衡投資組合策略。因此，我們看好現金流

量相對穩定之醫療保健及公用事業領域的防守性股

票，但亦有留意某些狀況較好、估值較具吸引力的周

期性股票，準備趁股價調整之機吸納。在此類股票當

中，我們更為青睞能源及保險公司，金融類及工業類

的某些精選股票也頗具潛力。

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