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IMPACT OF FOOD IMPORTS BAN BY RUSSIA
Jānis VolbertsHead of Foreign Investment Attraction, Tourism and Export Promotion Division
02.10.2015. Kaunas, Lithuania
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The impact of the embargo on imports from Latvia to Russia
o In the seven months of 2014 (before the introduction of an embargo) export of the goods within import embargo list amounted to 7.8% on the total share of Latvia’s export to Russia
o According to the estimates, the total direct impact of the Russian embargo reach 0.25% of Latvia’s GDP (including 1.5% of the agriculture’s added value, 0.3% of the processing industry’s and 0.1% of the trade and transport services’)
o Indirect influence related with economical slowdown in Russia and devaluation of rubble is more significant – 0,8% in first half of 2015
o In the seven months of 2015 export to Russia decreased by 19,2% - 40% related to embargo list, 60% related to other goods
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The impact on the milk sector in Latvia
Price (EUR/t) Volume (thousand t)
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Export diversification of Latvia
By the groups of countries, % By the groups of goods, %
2000 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 I-VI
0
20
40
60
80
100
65
4035 31 32 33
8
1616
17 19 19
5
1414
13 12 12
915
1516 15 11
14 1520 23 23 25
Other coun-tries
CIS
Estonia
Lithuania
EU-15
2000 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 I-VI
0
20
40
60
80
100
614 18 20 19 158
1011 10 10
1015
75 5 5
5
3722 19 16 17
18
13
1514
10 9 9
6
11 1316 17 19
15 20 21 23 24 23 Other goods
Machinery and elec-trical equipment
Metals and metal ar-ticles
Wood and articles of wood
Products of light industry
Chemical products
Agricultural and food products
5
TOP 5 Russian fruit import origins and EU exporting MS (2012-2013 average)
6
TOP 5 Russian vegetables import origins and EU exporting MS (2012-2013 average)
7
TOP 5 Russian dairy import origins and EU exporting MS (2012-2013 average)
8
TOP 5 Russian meat origins and EU exporting MS (2012-2013 average)
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Proportion of goods affected by Russian embargo from the agricultural GDP (2013)
LT EE LV PL DK FI NL HU CY BE GR IE ES AU SL BG DE HR FR IT LU PT SL CZ SE GB RO MT0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2.68
0.41
0.30
0.22
0.15
0.15
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Source: Ministry of Agriculture using Eurostat dataset
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Depreciation of Russian ruble
Depreciation of Russian rublesignificantly affect also exports of goods and services not listed in embargo, including logistics and tourism industries
The main support measures
Amendments in regulations:• possibility to extend the taxation payment period• improvements in the customs regulations
Aid for agricultural primary producers and processors:• increased credit guarantees for farmers• emergency aid for the milk producers
Export market reorientation:• additional activities to the support program• increased the intensity of the aid
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Additional activities in the export market development support program
• Official representatives abroad• National stands at trade fairs• Trade missions• Marketing measures abroad• Visits by foreign companies• Transnational business forums• Export seminars• Advice on external markets• Business partner search
Thank you!Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Latvia
Address: Brīvības iela 55, Rīga, LV-1519, LatviaPhone: +371 67013100
Fax: +371 67280882E-mail: [email protected]
Home page: www.em.gov.lvTwitter: @EM_gov_lv, @siltinam
Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/ekonomikasministrijaFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/atbalstsuznemejiem
