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INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN INDONESIADALAM ERA PASAR AEC 2015: PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN
Dr. Ir. Arief Daryanto, M.Ec.
Direktur, Program Pascasarjana Manajemen dan Bisnis IPB (MB-IPB)
Seminar Nasional Membangun Perunggasan Indonesia yang Berdayasaingdan Berkelanjutan dalam Era AEC , Auditorium Fapet UGM Yogyakarta,
15 November 2014
Presentation Outline
IntroductoryRemarks Konteks Persaingan:ASEANEconomicCommunity(AEC)2015
Faktor Penentu Industri Perunggasan diEraGlobal
Tantangan dan Peluang Industri Perunggasan diEraAEC2015
Strategi Menghadapi Persaingan diEraAEC2015 ConcludingRemarks
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
Intheglobalindustries:thefittest*(andtheintelligent)havesurvived.
*thefittestmeanshavingastrongbalancesheet
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
KONTEKS PERSAINGAN: ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015
Figure 1. Regional Economic Integration
Processwherebycountriesinageographicregioncooperatetoeitherreduceoreliminatebarrierstothefreeflowofproducts,people,orcapital
Source:WildandWild,2013
Table 1. Levels of Regional Integration
Coordinateaspectsofmemberseconomicandpoliticalsystems
PoliticalUnion
Removebarrierstotrade,labor,andcapital,setacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers,andcoordinatememberseconomicpolicies
EconomicUnion
Removeallbarrierstotrade,labor,andcapitalamongmembers,andsetacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers
CommonMarket
Removeallbarrierstotradeamongmembers&setacommontradepolicyagainstnonmembers
CustomsUnion
Removeallbarrierstotradeamongmembers,buteachcountryhasownpoliciesfornonmembers
FreeTradeArea
Source:WildandWild,2013
Table 2. Effects of Integration
Potentialbenefits
Potentialdrawbacks
Tradediversion
Shiftsinemployment
Lossofsovereignty
Tradecreation
Greaterconsensus
Politicalcooperation
Createsjobs
Source:WildandWild,2013
Figure 2. AEC Scorecard
Table 3. The Ten ASEAN Member Countries(Competitive markets of over 600 million people)
GDPpercapita(US$): 2011 2012
1. BruneiDarussalam 50,790 50,0002. Indonesia 6,728 4,7003. Malaysia 13,385 15,8004. Philippines 3,383 4,1005. Singapore 49,754 60,5006. Thailand 7,907 9,5007. Cambodia 1,818 2,2008. LaoPDR 2,054 2,7009. Myanmar 1,040 1,30010. Vietnam 2,589 3,400Source:CIAWorldFactBook(2013)
10
FrameworkofAnalysis
WantedRICH ASEAN:Resilient,Inclusive,CompetitiveandHarmoniousASEAN
NotAFTA:AgreeFirstTalkAfter
FAKTOR PENENTU INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN DALAM ERA GLOBAL
Permintaankomoditas dan produk peternakan terusmeningkatPertumbuhanpenduduk,pertumbuhanpendapatan,semakinbanyaknyapendudukkelasmenengah,urbanisasi,harapanhidupsemakinbesardanpendudukusiatua
Diversifikasimenujuproduksikomoditasbernilaitinggi(highvalueproduction) Revolusi Peternakan dan Revolusi Putih
Polapengeluaranmakananyangbergeser daribijibijiandanmakananpokokkesayurmayur,buah,daging,susu,telurdanikan
Pergeseran selera dari daging merah ke daging putih Harga komoditas dan produk unggas yangpalingmurah
dibandingkan dengan daging lainnya
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (1)
Permintaan terhadap makanan siap masak dan siapsaji semakin meningkat
Pertumbuhan yangpesat supermarket,hypermarketdan QSRs(quickservicerestaurants)
Kebijakan pemerintah terkait keamanan pangan (foodsafety)
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (2)
Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi Investasi pertanian yangmenurun dan salah alokasi (under
investmentandmisinvestmentphenomenon)
Industrialisasi dan scalingup(konsolidasi usaha) Economiesofscale
Peningkatan nilai tambah Integrasi vertikal Integrasi vertikalModel Contractfarmingdan Growout Konversi lahan,degradasi lahan,erosi tanah dan kelangkaan air Keterbatasan infrastruktur dan logistik Sumberdaya alam yangterbatas (FCRsunggas lebih rendah) Perubahan iklim
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Penawaran
Liberalisasi perdagangan
Stabilisasi dan penyesuaian struktural
Kebijakan makro,perdagangan dan sektoral
Kebijakan subsidi dinegera maju,khususnya dinegaranegara OECD
Faktor Penentu: Sisi Kebijakan
Gambar 3. Kompleksitas (Tali Temali) Faktor Penentu Daya Saing Pertanian
DayaSaingPertanian
LahanPertanian Produksi(output/ha) ManajemenUsahatani HargaInputUsahatani Cuaca HamadanPenyakit
FaktorPenawaran
Pakan Pangan Biofuels IndustriPengolahan
FaktorPermintaan
Kebijakan Perdagangan Kebijakan Pertanian Kebijakan Biofuel/Energi Regulasi Keamanan Pangan Kriteria Berkelanjutan
Kebijakan
Aktivitas Pembiayaan Nilai Tukar Tarif Angkutan Harga Minyak Mentah Spesifikasi Teknis Spekulasi dan Sentimen Pasar Masuknya Pasar Baru NonAgri
FaktorfaktorLainnya
Permintaan yangmeningkat :9milyar orangPerubahan pola makanDietyanglebih baikPenggunaan biofuel
Kapasitas yangmenurun :Berkurangnyalahan/berkurangnya lahan yangbaik
Perubahan iklim
Sumber:DavidGreen,GreenhouseCommunications,Virginiadan EconomistMagazine,2011
Gambar 4. Tantangan Utama: Produksi Lebih Banyak DenganSedikit Input
Source:Rabobank,2012
Gambar 5. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption Growth with Per Capita GDP in Selected Countries 2011/2012
Source:Rabobank,2013
Figure 6. Rising Income Changes Consumption Pattern
Figure 7. Meat Production and Real Prices Trends
Source:MeatAtlas,2014
Figure 8. Worldwide Meat Production
Source:MeatAtlas,2014
Figure 9. Demand of Meat in Developing Countries is Rising Steeply
Source:MeatAtlas,2014
Figure 10. Growth in the Supermarket Fridges
Figure 11. Counting the Animals
Source:TheEconomist,2011
Source:ForeignAgriculturalService2014b
Figure 12. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Consumption
Aus
tralia
Figure 13. Comparison of Global Chicken Meat Consumption and Production, 2012
Source:a.ForeignAgriculturalService2014b(consumption)b.FoodandAgricultureOrganisation(Production)
Aus
tralia
Figure 14. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat Production
Sumber:FoodandAgricultureOrganisation
Aus
tralia
Figure 15. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption for Selected Countries, 2012
Source:a.ForeignAgriculturalService2014b(consumption)b.WorldBank(Population)
Aus
tralia
Figure 16. Expectation of Higher Growth in Consumption
Source:MinistryofAgriculture,CreditSuisseEstimates
Figure 17. Chicken is Indonesias Favorite Meat: Indonesia Meat Consumption Breakdown
Source:IndonesiaCentralStatisticalBureau
Figure 18. Sunny Days for Indonesian Broiler Sector
Source:Laughlin,Ketal(2007)
Figure 19. Genetic Selection Criteria
Source:Aho,2012
In1975,ittook64.1daysand4.66kgoffeedtogrowachickento2kg.In2011,ittookjust35daysandaslittleas3.4kgoffeed(ACMF,2011)
Figure 20. Significant Technological Changes in the Chicken Industry
Figure 21. Efficiency Improvements in Australian Chicken Meat Production
Source:AustralianChickenMeatFederation2011
Source:AustralianChickenMeatFederation2014
Figure 22. Converting Feed into Meat
Source:AssociationofAnimalFeedProducers(GPMT)
Figure 23. Animal Feed Raw Material Consumption 2010
Figure 24. Livestock Industries Throughout the Supply Chain
Source:WorldFoodSecuritySummit2014
ManufacturingFarminginput Farminginput RetailFoodservicesPackaginganddistribution
Breeders Animalfeed
LivestockPoultryAbattoirs
Processedfoods,cosmetics,personalcare,chemicalsetc.
WarehousingRepackagingColdroom
Supermarkets,groceries,restaurants,hotels
Logistic
TANTANGAN DAN PELUANG INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN KE DEPAN
Challenges in Poultry Industry (1)
The global industry is in crisis: Import growth slowing down and muchmore competition
Traditionalexporters(e.g.,US,Brazil,Argentina,Thailand)continuetogrowwhileaglobalrecessionisunderway
Traditionalimporters(e.g.,RussiaandChina)arebecomingselfsufficientduetofoodsecurityconcerns
AEC has become a greater target for the developed world doesnt want(CLQs)
Availabilityandpricevolatilityoffeedingredientsconsolidationor integration?
ThreatofBirdFlu(AI) Highvulnerabilitytodiseaseoutbreak
Volatilityofcashflow Largewetmarketandsmallpenetrationofprocessedchicken
Limitedmonitoringandcoordinationofsupply[Fragmented]
Challenges for Poultry Industry (2)
Difficultfinancingofworkingcapital Threats ofCLQimport Insufficientsupplyofinfrastructure(coldchain,transportationetc)
Availabilityofland Lackofpromotion[FAT] Inefficientgovernmentbureaucracy Policyinconsistencyintheeraofregionalautonomy
Challenges for Poultry Industry (3)
Growthindomesticdemandtocontinue:1520%[broiler]
Indonesiaslowpercapitaconsumptionprovidesamplepotentialforgrowth
Chickenisthecheapestsourceofprotein Priceriskisshiftingfromfarmertointegrator[ContractFarming]
Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (1)
Constantlyupgradestechnologyandskillsetoffarmers
Wetmarketsharetodeclinemorevalueadded
OpportunityforFDI(ForeignDirectInvestment)
Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (2)
STRATEGI MENGHADAPI PESAINGAN DALAM ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015
Table 4. Global Competitiveness Index: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2013
Countries CHANGE201320142014
Outof1442013
Outf 148Change
201220132012
Out of1442011
Outof142CHANGE20112012
1.Singapore 0 2 2 0 2 2 0
2.Malaysia +4 20 24 +1 25 21 4
3.Thailand +6 31 37 +1 38 39 +1
4.Indonesia +4 34 38 +12 50 46 45.Philippines +7 52 59 +6 65 75 +10
6.Vietnam +2 68 70 +5 75 65 10
7.Cambodia 7 95 88 3 85 97 +12
8.Myanmar +5 134 139
Source: World Economic Forum, 2014
Table 5. Ease of Doing Business Ranking: Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2014
Countries EaseofDoingBusinessRank
StartingaBusiness
Dealingw/Construction
Permits
GettingElectricity
RegisteringProperty
GettingCredit
ProtectingInvestors
PayingTaxes
TradingAcrossBorders
EnforcingContracts
ResolvingInsolvency
Singapore 1 3 3 6 28 3 2 5 1 12 4
Malaysia 6 16 43 21 35 1 4 36 5 30 42
Thailand 18 91 14 12 29 73 12 70 24 22 58
Vietnam 99 109 29 156 51 42 157 149 65 46 149
Philippines 108 170 99 33 121 86 128 131 42 114 100
Indonesia 120 175 88 121 101 86 52 137 54 147 144Cambodia 137 184 161 134 118 42 80 65 114 162 163
Myanmar 182 189 150 126 154 170 182 107 113 188 155
Brunei 59 137 46 29 116 55 115 20 39 161 48
Laos 159 85 96 140 76 159 187 119 161 104 189
Source:WorldBank,2014
Feed Breeding Farming Processing Consumer
Byproduct Feedformulation Rawmaterial
buying
Productionefficiency
Productionefficiency
Passingpricechangesontocustomer
Highandvolatileprices consolidationandintegration?
Marketintelligenceandefficiency
Priceandexchangeratevolatility rawmaterialbuying,hedging?
Financing
Source:Rabobank,2012
Figure 25. Managing Animal Protein Value Chain
Grainavailability
Investmentintechnology
Humancapital&Managerialexpertise
Financing
Sanitarystatus,Foodsafety
Firmstrategy:Consolidation,Integration
Infrastructure&Coldchainmarketimg
Politicalinfluence,Regulatory env.&Tradepolicies
Valuechainimprovement&Marketintelligence
IntegratedProductionSystem
PoultryCompetitiveness
Figure 26. Determinants of Poultry Industry Competitiveness
DAGING
TELUR
SUSU
ITIK
SAPI
KAMBING
1. Peningkatan kuantitas dankualitas benih/bibit
2. Peningkatanproduksiternak
3. Peningkatanproduksipakanternak
4. Pengendaliandanpenanggulanganpenyakithewan
5. PenjaminanpanganasalhewanyangASUH
6. Peningkatankoordinasidandukunganmanajemen
REVITALISASIPERSUSUAN
RESTRUKTURISASIPERUNGGASAN
PSDSK
SAPI/KERBAU
KAMBINGDOMBA
AYAM/ITIK
BABI/ANEKATERNAK
AYAM
ANEKATERNAK
MEMENUHIKEBUTUHANPANGANASALTERNAK
Gambar 27. Strategi Pembangunan Peternakandan Kesehatan Hewan
Gambar 28. Kerangka Desain Strategi Induk Pembangunan Pertanian2013-2045
CONCLUDING REMARKS: LEADERSHIPS
Thepessimistcomplainaboutthewind;theoptimistexpectsittochange;
theleadersadjuststhesails.WilliamArthurWard
Orangpesimis mengeluhkan angin;Orangoptimis berharap agarangin berubah;
Pemimpin menyesuaikan layar.
TERIMAKASIH [email protected]
Arief Daryanto - Peluang_dan_Tantangan_ Industri Perunggasan_MEA_Fapet_UGM_2014