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Jessie Joubert, Edgear/JPams Consultant
Brenda Joubert, SREB School Improvement Consultant
Ralph Thibodeaux, Deputy Director, HS Redesign, LA DOE
Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How
Southern
Regional
Education
Board
HSTWDropout Early Warning System
‣ Explore why early detection of problems is key
‣ Resolve how to identify students‣ Identify who needs help‣ Discuss when students should
receive what assistance??
?
Overview of Research
Identify students to target◦ Data in Student Information Systems◦ Identifying students using data
Interventions◦ Identifying interventions◦ Planning for interventions to occur
Plan of Action
Dropouts are much more likely than their peers who graduate to be:
Unemployed Living in poverty Receiving public assistance In prison Unhealthy Divorced Single parents with children who drop out from
high school themselvesThe Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006
The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts
A Growing Prison Population75 Percent Of State Prison Inmates And 59 Percent Of Federal Inmates Are High-school Dropouts.
Increasing Welfare Costs A Limited Labor Supply For An Economy With
An Increasing Appetite For Educated Workers For American society, the annual cost of providing for
youth who fail to complete high school and their families is $76 billion/year – or approximately $800 for each taxpayer in states and localities across the country
One-third of a Nation: Rising Dropout Rates and
Declining Opportunities, ETS, February 2006
The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts
Dropouts Identify
Five Major Factors For Leaving School
1. 47% Classes not interesting 2. 43% Missed too many days, could not catch up3. 42% Spent time with people disinterested in
school4. 38% Had too much freedom & not enough rules5. 35% Was failing in school
The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006
69 % said they were not motivated or inspired to work hard,
66% would have worked harder if more was expected of them (higher academic standards and more studying or homework),
37 % said that “failing in school” was a major factor for dropping out;
62 % missed class often the year before dropping out.
National Center For Dropout Prevention
Who are these dropouts?
Grade Level of Dropouts
Source: Ed Week: EPE Research Center 2006
In hindsight, dropouts are almost universally remorseful for having left school.
About ¾ of dropouts indicate they would have remained in school if they could relive the experience.
74% of dropouts would re-enter school if they could attend in alternative settings with age-level peers.
SOURCE: The Silent Epidemic, Civic Enterprises, March 2006
Regrets
Research by Louisiana DOE determined ninth grade is the critical year when students drop out, but mental dropping out begins long before physical withdrawal from school.
Early Identification & Intervention is Key
Early Predictors of Failure to Graduate Each 8th grade course failure increases the odds
of non-promotion from 9th to 10th grade by 16%
Students who are 15 years of age or older when they enter high school
Although 8th-grade test scores are good predictors of students’ likelihood to do well in high school courses, course attendance is eight times more predictive of course failure in the freshman year
Education Commission of the States; 2008
12
6th Grade ResearchAcademic AchievementCourse failure is a better indicator of not graduating than low test scores.
1. Failing Math (for the year) in 6th grade2. Failing English (for the year) in 6th grade
AttendanceWhen attendance dips below 80% (36 days or more/ year), 75% or more of these students don’t graduate.
Balfanz & Mac Iver, Johns HopkinsHerzog, Philadelphia Education Fund
13
6th Grade Research
SuspensionsOnly 20% who receive one or more suspensions in 6th grade graduate within a year of on-time graduation.
Behavior grades predict half of the school/district’s future nongraduates.
Unsatisfactory behavior magnifies the damaging effects of course failure on students’ prospects of graduating!
Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver,
Johns Hopkins, Philadelphia Education Fund
Every grade level should work with students who exhibit at risk behaviors:
AbsenteeismLow gradesPoor disciplineOverage
Identify Students in Need
Identify Students to Target
Automatic Email NotificationsQuery Of At Risk Students
Looking at the Work
Dropout Early Warning System DEWS
Reporting system that identifies potential dropouts and brings these students to the attention of school, district, and state personnel.
Identifies 8th – 12th grade students who are:
Over age by two years Absenteeism ≥ 10% of days enrolled Discipline ≥ 7% of days enrolled Grades
◦Current GPA drop of 1.5 or more from previous GPA > 2.0
◦Current GPA drop of .5 or more from previous GPA ≤ 2.0
◦Current GPA ≤ 1.0
Essential Elements of DEWS Reports
Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month
Sent to ◦ School Principal◦ Assistant Principal◦ Counselor◦ District Superintendent
Includes◦ Comprehensive list of students showing at risk
information◦ New students who meet criteria is sent daily
Student Detail Listings
Student Detail Listings
DEWS District Tables
Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each Month
Delivered to ◦ School Principals◦ Assistant Principals◦ District Superintendent
Two Reports◦ Counts of 9th graders for each site by at risk indicators◦ Counts of 8th – 12th graders for each site by at risk
indicators
DEWS District Tables
DEWS District Tables
DEWS Statewide Table
Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month
Delivered to
◦ LA Dept of Education State Superintendent
◦ Selected DOE Staff
Includes◦ Counts of 8th–12th grade students by district by at
risk indicators.
DEWS Statewide Table
Report GenerationDEWS automatic emails are broad in
nature. To target assistance, more information is needed.
Reports On-Demand
Investigate student specifics Grades Discipline Attendance Test scores
Report Generation
Cell click a count or name to display
further detail.
Interventions Identifying Effective InterventionsPlanning For Interventions To Occur
Monitoring And Adjusting Interventions
Looking at the Work
Referrals/Interventions by School
Detail of Referrals/Interventions
Early Warning System and Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-RelationshipsPresenterRalph Thibodeaux
Improve the Graduation Rate
Improve GPA
Improve Attendance
Improve Discipline
Improve ILEAP/GEE Scores
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
ReDesign Goals
SUCCESS IS A JOURNEY…
NOT A DESTINATION.
•History • Why an Early Warning System• Early Warning Indicators• Example of Reports• Utilization of the Early Warning System• Programs for all Students• Interventions for Individual Students• Goals of the Early Warning System
Objectives
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
228
-52 184176
Data for the Graduating Class of
2005This is a
19.3% loss of students.
Why do we need an Early Warning System and
Interventions?
StartingFreshman
Graduating Seniors
Passed to Sophomore
Most of which happened in the
first year
Warning Indicators
‣Discipline for year and/or current term
‣Attendance for year and/or current term
‣Grade Point Average
‣Decline in Grade Point Average
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Early Warning Report
Utilization of Early Warning System
‣Principal‣Assistant
Principals‣School
Counselors‣Freshman Teams
‣All Grade levelsRigor-Relevance-Relationships
‣Scheduled a Team Meeting
‣Created a list of all Interventions/Programs/Strategies from the Model Schools Conference plus prior knowledge
‣Divided into small groups to create each level
‣Together reached a consensus on all levels
Development of the Interventions/Programs/St
rategies
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Early Preparation Programs Multi-Level Comprehensive
Interventions Celebrate Success High Expectations
Interventions/Programs/Strategies
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Freshman Parent Night
Progress Report 3rd Week of each 6 Weeks
1st Contact Phone Call
Advisory Room “Making High
School Count” Freshman
Orientation Day Spring 8th Grade
Tour Spring 8th Grade
Parent Meeting Spring Letters from
9th graders to 8th graders
Freshman of the Month
Special Renaissance Reward (9th Ice Cream, etc.)
Achievements Posted Honors Contracts Parent Command
Center “Capturing Kids’
Hearts” M.B. Flippen “I” Contracts Reteach/Retest Pilot
in Math Future Academy Ideas
Level 1 Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Teacher/Student Conference Follow-up Parent Phone Call Voluntary Tutoring Talk to Advisory Room Teacher
and Team Teachers Web/Computer Review and Skills
Development
Level 2 Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Parent Teacher Conference
Signing of Planners Nightly
Parent Letters Sent Home
Mid-term “Possible Failure” Letter
Level 3 Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Mandatory After-School Tutoring“Wildcat Conductor”Counselor WatchJr./Sr. Mentor / E-MentorsParent Calls and LettersPeer Teacher ObservationTeam Parent Conference
Level 4 Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Parent/Counselor/Administration Conference
FINS Recommendation504/SPED RecommendationReview Academic Options and Programs
Level 5 Interventions
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Level 1
Level 4
Level 3
Level 2
Level 5
The Final Product
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Early Warning System
Collect data from previous graduation classes
Determine indicators for different types of schools
Generate Early Warning Program reports by applying the previous year’s statistics to current students
The Future??
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
Willard R. Daggett Ed.D
Rigor-Relevance-Relationships
“Good is the Enemy of Great.”
Take This Home
Looking at the Work
Research John Hopkins University Research The Silent Epidemic National Center for Educational Statistics Longitudinal local and state student data
◦ Attendance◦ Discipline◦ Test scores◦ Graduation rates
Plan Use data to guide reports
◦ Louisiana research guides JPams DEWS and other SIS Reports◦ Your state research can guide what items are also on the “list”
Determine methods of intervention based on student needs
You Can Too…
