Klimatske promjene, paleoklimatologija Ivica Vilibić Institut za oceanografiju i ribarstvo, Split [email protected]

Klimatske promjene, Klimatske promjene, paleoklimatologijapaleoklimatologija

Ivica VilibićInstitut za oceanografiju i ribarstvo, Split

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




http://sio.ucsd.edu/piershot.html

Key concepts of the last lecture:Key concepts of the last lecture:

Općenito o razini moraOpćenito o razini mora Plima i osekaPlima i oseka Olujni usporiOlujni uspori Sezonske oscilacije razine moraSezonske oscilacije razine mora Višegodišnje promjene razine moraVišegodišnje promjene razine mora

Što su klimatske promjeneŠto su klimatske promjene Recentne klimatske promjeneRecentne klimatske promjene PaleoklimatologijaPaleoklimatologija Projekcije za budućnostProjekcije za budućnost

Današnje predavanje:Današnje predavanje:

Materijali preuzeti:Materijali preuzeti:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007Panel on Climate Change, 2007www.ipcc.chwww.ipcc.ch

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneKlima kao meteorološki pojam je skup meteoroloških čimbenika i pojava koje u određenom vremenskom periodu čine prosječno stanje atmosfere nad nekim dijelom Zemljine površine.

Klimatske promjene ili promjene klime označavaju dugotrajne i značajne promjene prosječnih

klimatskih uvjeta na zemlji.

Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Over the Estimate of the Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the

same amount of outgoing longwave radiation.same amount of outgoing longwave radiation.

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjene

This figure shows the absorption bands in the Earth's atmosphere (middle panel) and This figure shows the absorption bands in the Earth's atmosphere (middle panel) and the effect that this has on both solar radiation and upgoing thermal radiation (top the effect that this has on both solar radiation and upgoing thermal radiation (top panel). Individual absorption spectrum for major greenhouse gases are shown in the panel). Individual absorption spectrum for major greenhouse gases are shown in the lower panel.lower panel.

Staklenički plinoviStaklenički plinovi


Recent CORecent CO22 concentrations concentrations and emissions.and emissions.

Mauna LoaMauna Loa

Staklenički plinoviStaklenički plinovi

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneTemperatura zrakaTemperatura zraka

(Top) Annual global mean (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures observed temperatures (black dots) along with (black dots) along with simple fits to the datasimple fits to the data. .

(Bottom) Patterns of (Bottom) Patterns of linear global temperature linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface estimated at the surface (left), and for the (left), and for the troposphere (right) from troposphere (right) from the surface to about 10 the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite km altitude, from satellite records.records.

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneOborineOborine

The most important spatial The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The PDSI is a prominent index of PDSI is a prominent index of drought and measures the drought and measures the cumulative deficitcumulative deficit (relative to (relative to local mean conditions) local mean conditions) in surface in surface land moistureland moisture by incorporating by incorporating previous precipitation and previous precipitation and estimates of moisture drawn into estimates of moisture drawn into the atmosphere (based on the atmosphere (based on atmospheric temperatures) into a atmospheric temperatures) into a hydrological accounting system. hydrological accounting system. Red and orange areas are drier Red and orange areas are drier than average and blue and than average and blue and green areas are wetter than green areas are wetter than averageaverage when the values shown when the values shown in the lower plot are positive.in the lower plot are positive.


Observed trends (days Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951 to per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the frequency of 2003 in the frequency of extreme temperatures, extreme temperatures, defined based on 1961 to defined based on 1961 to 1990 values1990 values

EkstremiEkstremi


Anomaly time series (departure from the Anomaly time series (departure from the long-term mean) of polar surface air long-term mean) of polar surface air temperature (A, G), arctic and antarctic sea temperature (A, G), arctic and antarctic sea ice extent (B, F), Northern Hemisphere ice extent (B, F), Northern Hemisphere (NH) frozen ground extent (C), NH snow (NH) frozen ground extent (C), NH snow cover extent (D) and global glacier mass cover extent (D) and global glacier mass balance (E).balance (E).

LedLed

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneTemperatura moraTemperatura mora

Time series of global annual ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layerTime series of global annual ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layer


Meridional sections of Meridional sections of differences in salinity (psu) of the differences in salinity (psu) of the a) Atlantic Ocean for the period a) Atlantic Ocean for the period 1985 to 1999 minus 1955 to 1985 to 1999 minus 1955 to 1969 and b) Pacific Ocean for 1969 and b) Pacific Ocean for the World Ocean Circulation the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) 150°W Experiment (WOCE) 150°W section (1991–1992) and section (1991–1992) and historical data from 1968 plus or historical data from 1968 plus or minus 7.5 years.minus 7.5 years.

Vodene maseVodene mase

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneOtopljeni CO2Otopljeni CO2

Changes in surface oceanic pCO2 (left; in μatm) and pH (right) Changes in surface oceanic pCO2 (left; in μatm) and pH (right) from three time series stationsfrom three time series stations


Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (updated from Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate

and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry and Woodworth, 2004) and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004) (Leuliette et al., 2004)

Razina moraRazina mora


Schematic of the observed changes in the ocean state, including ocean Schematic of the observed changes in the ocean state, including ocean temperature, ocean salinity, sea level, sea ice and biogeochemical cycles. temperature, ocean salinity, sea level, sea ice and biogeochemical cycles.

The legend identifies the direction of the changes in these variables. The legend identifies the direction of the changes in these variables.

OceaniOceani

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneZadnjih tisuću godinaZadnjih tisuću godina

Records of NRecords of Northern orthern HemisphereHemisphere temperature temperature variation during the last variation during the last 1.3 kyr.1.3 kyr.


Variations of deuterium (δD; black), a proxy for local temperature, and the Variations of deuterium (δD; black), a proxy for local temperature, and the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 (red), CH4 atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 (red), CH4

(blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O; green) derived from air trapped within ice (blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O; green) derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric measurementscores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric measurements. . The The

shading indicates the last interglacial warm periods.shading indicates the last interglacial warm periods.

Zadnjih 600 kyrZadnjih 600 kyr

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneZadnjih 600 kyrZadnjih 600 kyrMilankovićevi ciklusiMilankovićevi ciklusi

Past and future daily-average insolation at 65 N, on day of summer Past and future daily-average insolation at 65 N, on day of summer solstice. Blue dot is current condition, 2 ky A.D. solstice. Blue dot is current condition, 2 ky A.D.


This figure shows the climate record of Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) This figure shows the climate record of Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) constructed by combining measurements from 57 globally distributed constructed by combining measurements from 57 globally distributed deep sea sediment cores. The measured quantity is oxygen isotope deep sea sediment cores. The measured quantity is oxygen isotope

fractionation ([[δ18O]]) in benthic foraminifera, which serves as a proxy fractionation ([[δ18O]]) in benthic foraminifera, which serves as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheetsfor the total global mass of glacial ice sheets

Zadnjih 5 MyrZadnjih 5 Myr

Klimatske promjeneKlimatske promjeneZadnjih 500 MyrZadnjih 500 Myr

Atmospheric CO2 and Atmospheric CO2 and continental glaciation 400 Ma continental glaciation 400 Ma to present.to present.

Global compilation of deep-sea Global compilation of deep-sea benthic foraminifera 18benthic foraminifera 18--O O isotope records from 40 Deep isotope records from 40 Deep Sea Drilling Program and Sea Drilling Program and Ocean Drilling Program sitesOcean Drilling Program sites..

Detailed record of CO2 Detailed record of CO2 for the last 65 Myr.for the last 65 Myr.

Klimatski modeliKlimatski modeliVerifikacijaVerifikacija

Global mean near-surface temperatures over the 20th century from observations Global mean near-surface temperatures over the 20th century from observations (black) and as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 different climate (black) and as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 different climate

models driven by both natural and human-caused factors that influence climate models driven by both natural and human-caused factors that influence climate (yellow). The mean of all these runs is also shown (thick red line).(yellow). The mean of all these runs is also shown (thick red line).

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcije

Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming (surface air Multi-model mean of annual mean surface warming (surface air temperature change,°C) for the scenarios B1 (top), A1B temperature change,°C) for the scenarios B1 (top), A1B

(middle) and A2 (bottom), and three time periods, 2011 to 2030 (middle) and A2 (bottom), and three time periods, 2011 to 2030 (left), 2046 to 2065 (middle) and 2080 to 2099 (right).(left), 2046 to 2065 (middle) and 2080 to 2099 (right).

Temperatura zrakaTemperatura zraka

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeOborineOborine

Multi-model mean changes in surface air temperature (°C, left), precipitation Multi-model mean changes in surface air temperature (°C, left), precipitation (mm day–1, middle) and sea level pressure (hPa, right) for boreal winter (DJF, (mm day–1, middle) and sea level pressure (hPa, right) for boreal winter (DJF,

top) and summer (JJA, bottom). Changes are given for the SRES A1B scenario, top) and summer (JJA, bottom). Changes are given for the SRES A1B scenario, for the period 2080 to 2099 relative to 1980 to 1999.for the period 2080 to 2099 relative to 1980 to 1999.

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeHidrološki ciklusHidrološki ciklus

Multi-model mean changes in (a) precipitation (mm day–1), (b) soil moisture Multi-model mean changes in (a) precipitation (mm day–1), (b) soil moisture content (%), (c) runoff (mm day–1) and (d) evaporation (mm day–1).content (%), (c) runoff (mm day–1) and (d) evaporation (mm day–1).

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeLedLed

Multi-model mean sea ice concentration (%) for January to March (JFM) and Multi-model mean sea ice concentration (%) for January to March (JFM) and June to September (JAS), in the Arctic (top) and Antarctic (bottom) for the June to September (JAS), in the Arctic (top) and Antarctic (bottom) for the periods (a) 1980 to 2000 and b) 2080 to 2100 for the SRES A1B scenario.periods (a) 1980 to 2000 and b) 2080 to 2100 for the SRES A1B scenario.

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeMeridional Overturning CirculationMeridional Overturning Circulation

Evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 30°N in Evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 30°N in simulations with the suite of comprehensive coupled climate modelssimulations with the suite of comprehensive coupled climate models. Of the . Of the

model simulations consistent with the late-20th century observational model simulations consistent with the late-20th century observational estimates, no simulation shows an increase in the MOC during the 21st estimates, no simulation shows an increase in the MOC during the 21st

century; reductions range from indistinguishable within the simulated natural century; reductions range from indistinguishable within the simulated natural variability to over 50% relative to the 1960 to 1990 mean; and none of the variability to over 50% relative to the 1960 to 1990 mean; and none of the

models projects an abrupt transition to an off state of the MOC. models projects an abrupt transition to an off state of the MOC.

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeOborinski i sušni ekstremiOborinski i sušni ekstremi

(a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total (a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days)precipitation divided by the number of wet days),, (b) Changes in spatial patterns of (b) Changes in spatial patterns of

simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus simulated precipitation intensity between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999). (c) Globally averaged changes in dry days (defined as the annual 1980–1999). (c) Globally averaged changes in dry days (defined as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days). (d) Changes in spatial patterns of maximum number of consecutive dry days). (d) Changes in spatial patterns of

simulated dry days between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999).simulated dry days between two 20-year means (2080–2099 minus 1980–1999).


Changes in extremes Changes in extremes based on multi-model based on multi-model simulations from nine simulations from nine global coupled climate global coupled climate modelsmodels..

Temperaturni ekstremiTemperaturni ekstremi

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcijeRazina mora - stericRazina mora - steric

Local sea level change (m) due to Local sea level change (m) due to ocean density and circulation changeocean density and circulation change relative to the global average (i.e., positive values indicate greater local relative to the global average (i.e., positive values indicate greater local sea level change than global) during the 21st century, calculated as the sea level change than global) during the 21st century, calculated as the difference between averages for 2080 to 2099 and 1980 to 1999, as an difference between averages for 2080 to 2099 and 1980 to 1999, as an ensemble mean over 16 AOGCMs forced with the SRES A1B scenario.ensemble mean over 16 AOGCMs forced with the SRES A1B scenario.


Projections and uncertainties (5 to 95% ranges) of global average sea level Projections and uncertainties (5 to 95% ranges) of global average sea level rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) for the rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) for the

six SRES marker scenarios. The projected sea level rise assumes that the six SRES marker scenarios. The projected sea level rise assumes that the part of the present-day ice sheet mass imbalance that is due to recent ice part of the present-day ice sheet mass imbalance that is due to recent ice

flow acceleration will persist unchanged.flow acceleration will persist unchanged.

Razina moraRazina mora

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcije1000 yrs1000 yrs

(a) Atmospheric CO2, (a) Atmospheric CO2, (b) global mean surface (b) global mean surface warming, (c) sea level warming, (c) sea level rise from thermal rise from thermal expansion and (d) expansion and (d) Atlantic meridional Atlantic meridional overturning circulation overturning circulation (MOC) calculated by (MOC) calculated by eight EMICs for the eight EMICs for the SRES A1B scenario SRES A1B scenario and stable radiative and stable radiative forcing after 2100, forcing after 2100, showing long-term showing long-term commitment after commitment after stabilisation.stabilisation.

Klimatske projekcijeKlimatske projekcije2000 yrs - led2000 yrs - led

Evolution of Greenland surface elevation and ice sheet volume versus time in Evolution of Greenland surface elevation and ice sheet volume versus time in the experiment of Ridley et al. (2005) with the UKMO-HadCM3 AOGCM the experiment of Ridley et al. (2005) with the UKMO-HadCM3 AOGCM

coupled to the Greenland Ice Sheet model of Huybrechts and De Wolde (1999) coupled to the Greenland Ice Sheet model of Huybrechts and De Wolde (1999) under a climate of constant quadrupled pre-industrial atmospheric CO2.under a climate of constant quadrupled pre-industrial atmospheric CO2.

Documents

Klimatske promjene, paleoklimatologija Ivica Vilibić Institut za oceanografiju i ribarstvo, Split [email protected]