LECTURE 3: NATION BUILDING AND NATIONALISMxiaohuanlan.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/1/3/19133549/lecture_3... · 《同心第一》v.s. 《论人 ... 1月，日本提出“二十一

LECTURE 3: NATION BUILDING AND NATIONALISM

A Path to Political Consensus

复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

Nation Building

车同轨，书同文，行同伦

“曰各人其人，各俗其俗，各教其教，各礼其礼，各衣服其衣服，各居庐其居庐。四夷处四夷，中国处中国，各不相乱，如斯而已矣，则中国中国也，四夷四夷也。” 石介《中国论》

“Italy has been made; now it remains to make Italians” Massimo d’Azeglio

“你说中国不好。你是外国人么？为什么你不到外国去？可惜外国人看你不起。”鲁迅《论辩的魂灵》引用当时言论


外敌，教育，语言

我十年以前，在家裡讀書的時候，天天只知道吃飯睡覺。就是發奮有為，也不過是念念文章，想騙几層功名，光耀門楣罷了。那知道國家是什麼東西，和我有什麼關係呢。到了甲午年，才聽見人說有個什麼日本國，把我們中國打敗了。到了庚子年，又有什麼英國、俄國、法國、德國、意國、美國、奧國、日本大國的聯合軍，把中國打敗了。此時我才曉得，世界上的人，原來是分做一國一國的。此疆彼界，各不相下。我們中國，也是世界萬國中之一國，我也是中國之一人。一國的盛衰榮辱，全國的大都是一樣消受，我一個人如何能逃脫得出呢。我想到這裡，不覺一身冷汗，十分慚愧。

---陈独秀《说国家》


外敌，教育，语言

接着，韩麦尔先生从这一件事谈到那一件事，谈到法国语言上来了。他说，法国语言是世界上最美的语言,最明白，最精确；又说，我们必须把它记在心里，永远别忘了它，亡了国当了奴隶的人民，只要牢牢记住他们的语言，就好像拿着一把打开监狱大门的钥匙。说到这里，他就翻开书讲语法。真奇怪，今天听讲，我全都懂。他讲的似乎挺容易，挺容易。我觉得我从来没有这样细心听讲过，他也从来没有这样耐心讲解过。这可怜的人好像恨不得把自己知道的东西在他离开之前全教给我们，一下子塞进我们的脑子里去。

---都德《最后一课》


《劝学篇》：张之洞 V.S.福泽谕吉


《劝学篇》：张之洞 V.S.福泽谕吉

《同心第一》 v.s. 《论人与人平等》

第一句话：

“范文正为秀才时，即以天下为己任。”

“‘天不生人上之人，也不生人下之人’，这就是说天生的人一律平等，不是生来就有贵贱上下之别的。”


《劝学篇》

张：“二十四篇之义，括之以五知、一知耻，耻不如日本，耻不如土耳其，耻不如暹罗，耻不如古巴。二知惧，惧为印度，惧为越南、缅甸、朝鲜，惧为埃及，惧为波兰。三知变，不变其习，不能变法，不变其法，不能变器。四知要，中学考古非要，致用为要。西学亦有别，西艺非要，西政为要。五知本，在海外不忘国，见异俗不忘亲，多智巧不忘圣。”

福：“只要真理所在，就是对非洲的黑人也要畏服，本诸人道，对英美的军舰也不应有所畏惧。如果国家遭到侮辱，全体日本国民就应当拚着生命来抗争，以期不使国威失坠。只有这样才可以说是国家的自由独立。至于象中国人那样，觉得除本国以外似乎没有别国存在，一见着外国人就呼为夷狄，把他们看作四只脚的牲畜，贱视他们，厌恶他们，不计量自己的国力，而妄想驱逐他们，结果反为夷狄所窘。”


Aghion, Persson, And Rouzet (2012)


Aghion, Persson, And Rouzet (2012)


Education To Defend The State, But Why Not Earlier?

Gellner (2009)，葛剑雄(2013)：农业社会和商业社会对交流的需求不同

Posen (1993): get ready to die in wars.


Deathliness Of Wars, 1500-2000 (Pinker 2012)


Language Education And Identity

SOURCE: CLOTS-FIGUERAS AND MASELLA (2013) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 12

Nationalism As A Preference…


Japanese Don’t Like Chinese Either

Source: Fisman, Hamao, And Wang (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 14

Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) Of Japanese Firms: 2010 钓鱼岛


CAR Of Japanese Firms: 2005 Textbook


CAR OF CHINESE FIRMS: 2010 钓鱼岛


CAR Of Chinese Firms: 2005 Textbook


Chinese Abroad, 2008 Olympics Torch Relay, Paris

Dalai Lama Effect

Source: Fuchs And Klann (2013) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 20

Exports To China

Source: Fuchs And Klann (2013) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 21

U.S. V.S. France In 2003

Source: Michael And Zhi (2010) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 22

U.S. V.S. France In 2003


Less Imports From France By The States


1915年1月，日本提出“二十一条”。“救国储金运动”

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月

上海所收救国储金金额，日均银元，1915年

SOURCE: 罗志田 (2013）复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 25

热情不持久？

《申报》1915年6月：“提倡国货之声浪渐低矣，救国储金之收数日缩矣，社会上昏昏迷迷、渐复原象矣。国耻之留于脑中尚有几分之几耶？……我甚惧‘永永勿忘’之徒托空言也！”

《时报》：“吾国恒性，每过一事之发生，怒发冲冠，愤不可遏，若将没齿不忘者。然而一时而情绪愈淡，再历一时而境过情迁，淡焉若忘矣。”

张謇：“（抵制日货）必我有可以相当之物。我而无斯物也。是所谓空言抵制。”


The Price Of Nationalism？

果爱国储金四字联署成一名词而有意味，则吾中华民国爱国心全量仅值二百万元，而其值又为吾人所自定，非由他人抑价贱酬者。

章士钊，1915

(On Scottish independence) ... just 21% of Scots would favor independence if it would leave them £500 ($795) a year worse off, and only 24% would vote to stay in the union even if they would be less well off sticking with Britain. Almost everyone else would vote for independence if it brought in roughly enough money to buy a new iPad, and against it if not.

The Economist, April 14th, 2012

Nation Building: Homogenize People

maxmize

s.t.

Order of choices

1. Form one country or split into two

2. Where to locate the government

3. To what extent to homogenize

Source: Alesina And Reich (2013) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 28

高中课程内容改革，第八次课程改革，2001

SOURCE: CANTONI ET. AL. (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 29

教育部普通高中思想政治课课程标准实验教材编写指导委员会主任

“我们认为，高中生正处在政治思想迅速发展变化的时期。新中国成立以来多年的经验证明，高中思想政治课教材和教学可能对他们的一生发生深刻的影响。思想政治教材是国家提供给中学生的精神食粮，编写教材是国家行为，不同于参编者个人的学术活动。虽然中学思想政治教材讲的是各学科中基础性、常识性的内容，但其政治性、政策性、科学性都极强，读者众多，关系到整个青年一代。”

“处在思想政治成长期的高中生需要大量精神上的养料，他们吸收思想养料的能力特别强，所以思想养料的质量如何，会对他们的成长产生强有力的影响。教材和教学中如果出现错误的思想，或渗进片面的观点，或不科学不准确的内容，比如某些西化的政治思想、不科学的经济思想、形而上学的或唯心论的哲学思想等，就可能在不知不觉中影响他们的一生，在长时期中得不到纠正，或纠正起来非常费劲。思想政治教材是国家提供给高中学生的精神食粮，必须保证质量，决不能像有些劣质奶粉那样，吃出大头娃娃来。”


六方面新强调的内容

中国式民主和政治参与

中国政府法制的重要性

三个代表

Appreciation for traditional Chinese ethnic heritage

Appreciate Chinese (non-market)economic institutions

关注环境问题


1954名北大学生，不同时点不同省份改换新教材


新教材效果：

更认同中国式民主

更信任政府官员、警察、军队，但并未提高general trust

并未显著影响汉族对少数民族的看法

少数民族更倾向于feel Chinese

对市场经济抱有更多疑虑

未显著影响对环境问题的看法（愿意花钱保护环境，环境目标应高于经济增长等）


Nationalism

Where does “the idea of nation” come from?

“唤醒”还是“觉醒”

Within a country, some people are stronger nationalists than others, why?

地方利益和“国族利益”的冲突和平衡

“中国人最崇拜的是家族主义和宗族主义，所以中国只有家族主义和宗族主义，没有国族主义。外国旁观的人说中国人是一盘散沙，这个原因是在什么地方呢？就是因为一般人民只有家族主义和宗族主义，没有国族主义。中国人对于家族和宗族的团结力非常强大，往往因为保护宗族起见，宁肯牺牲身家性命。……至于说到对于国家，从没有一次具极大精神去牺牲的。所以中国人的团结力，只能及于宗族而止，还没有扩张到国族。”

孙中山, 1924年


1998 Nato’s Bombing Of Chinese Embassy In Belgrade


An Economic Theory Of Nationalism (I)

Forming a nation:

Benefits: lower costs of domestic trade, larger domestic market

Cost: living with people with different cultures or races.

Equilibrium: optimal size of a nation

Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg (2000)


An Economic Theory Of Nationalism (II)

Uneven globalization shocks in regions within a nation

The shocked regions trade more with foreign countries, rely less on the domestic market

Disagreement with the current country size as optimal (prefer a smaller country)

Less nationalistic


Model Illustration 1

38

Home Foreign

(Country formation)

Home Foreign

(Globalization)

复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢

Illustration 2

39

Home

(Globalization weakens nationalism)

复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢

The Model (I)

N symmetric regions, each of which (i) uses a local specific factor K(i) to produce a tradable good X(i).

Each region also makes and consumes a non-tradable aggregate good:

Within-border trade is costless. Cross-border trade incurs an iceberg cost

Utility function: consumption increases with the size of country S(i)


The Model (II)

Optimal country size

Nationalism in Home is the endorsement of the S* as the best size of the domestic market.

Congruent with nationalism defined in social sciences


Handler (1988) On Nationalism

“Nationalism is an ideology about individuated being. It is an ideology concerned with boundedness, continuity, and homogeneity encompassing diversity [...] [O]urnotions of “nation” and “state” imply similar senses of boundedness, continuity, and homogeneity encompassing diversity. The state is viewed as a rational, instrumental, power-concentrating organization. The nation is imagined to represent less calculating, more sentimental aspects of collective reality. Yet both are, in principle, integrated: well-organized and precisely delimited social organisms. And, in principle, the two coincide.”


The Model (III)

A globalization shock hits some regions in each country:

the optimal size of the country for the these regions is now:

Two effects: a growth effect and a “relative-importance” effect

Conditional on income, globalization-hit regions have weaker nationalism because it no longer endorses the same domestic market as other regions

economic openness: (imports+exports)/GDP


Data I: Chinese Political Compass (CPOC)

UK Political Compass , customized to the Chinese socio-economic context.


The CPOC Self-evaluation: [-2, 2] From Left To Right


The CPOC Self-evaluation : Compare Yourself With Other People

47

Political regime Economy Culture

Strictly anonymous

IP addresses are identified;

year 2009

mainland only.

SOURCE: LAN AND LI (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢

THE CPOC SAMPLE

Representative of the Chinese population? No.

Chinese internet users: 29% of the whole population in 2010

Younger, richer, more educated, more urban residents

Current or future Chinese middle class

Altogether, more than 300,000 participants in CPoC

In our 2009 sample, 54,602 participants with a mainland IP address, across 303 cities/prefectures (out of 333 cities)

Various checks on the sample selection


Measure Nationalism In The Cpoc

[N1] National unity and territorial integrity are the interests of paramount priority for a society (国家的统一和领土完整是社会的最高利益)

Gellner “(Nationalism is) primarily a political principle, which holds that the political and the national unit should be congruent.” Particularly, the statement emphasizes the “paramount priority” of the national unity.

Hobsbawm (1990) added to the Gellner's definition of nationalism, the principle (of nationalism) implies that the political duty to the nation “overrides all other public obligations.”

The inclusion of “territorial integrity” is directly related to the current size of the nation, which is discussed in Alesina and Spolaore (1997) and Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarc (2000).


Measure Nationalism In The Cpoc

[N2] Given sufficient comprehensive national power, China has the right to take any measure to protect its interests (如果国家综合实力许可，那么中国有权为了维护自己的利益而采取任何行动)

Hobsbawm (1990): nationalism implies that the political duty to the nation “overrides all other public obligation, and in extreme cases (such as wars) all other obligations of whatever kind. ”


MEASURE NATIONALISM IN THE CPOC

[N3] All students, regardless of whether they are in college, high school, or elementary school, should attend the military training arranged by the government (无论中小学生或大学生，都应参加由国家统一安排的军训)

Posen (1993) : “The regimented presence of boys and young men in classrooms and military units is also exploited to spread crude nationalist ideology among them. Schools, military training, and the newspapers spread the idea that the group has a shared identity and fate that can only be protected by the state. A highly patriotic and militarized version of the group's history is a critical building block of this idea.”


MEASURE NATIONALISM IN THE CPOC

[N4] Western countries, headed by the United States, will not really allow China to become a world-class powerful nation. (以美国为首的西方国家不可能真正容许中国崛起成为一流强国)

Gries (2005): “Indeed, the West is central to the construction of Chinese identity today: it has become China's alter ego. As the sole superpower of the post-Cold War world, America symbolizes the West for China and for much of the rest of the non-Western world.”


The Index of Nationalism: simple average of the four

Correlation matrix

Principle Component Analysis

Number of Observations=54,602

N1 N2 N3 N4

N1 1N2 0.339 1N3

0.392 0.237 1N4 0.384 0.299 0.289 1

SOURCE: LAN AND LI (2014) 复旦大学 2014年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 52

The Distribution Of Chinese Nationalism (Mean=2.907, S.D.=0.123)




OLS Results: (number of obs=200)

Nationalism

index

Nationalism

index

Nationalism

index

Nationalism

index

Econ-open -0.124*** -0.102** -0.113** -0.113**

(0.037) (0.039) (0.053) (0.055)

Geo-open 0.036 0.042 0.042*

(0.022) (0.027) (0.025)

controls NO NO YES YES

Political

propaganda

NO NO No -0.067

(0.209)

controls: GDP per capita, College education, Rural population, Gov’t budget in GDP


On Political Propaganda

“Official ideologies of states and movements are not guides to what it is in the minds of even the most loyal citizens or supporters.”

Eric Hobsbawm (1992)


Nationalism And Protectionism

Measure Protectionism:

[P1] High tariffs should be imposed on foreign counterparts of domestic products, in order to protect national industries (应当对国外同类产品征收高额关税来保护国内民族工业)

[P2] Foreign capital in China should be restricted from developing at (their) will (在华外国资本应该受到限制，不能任意发展)

Regress the index of nationalism on P1 and P2, then take residuals

Nationalism residuals

Econ-open -0.106**

(0.049)

All other controls YES


Instrumental Variable

Each city sells and buys different products from different trade partners

The prediction power of the gravity equation on trade volumes

IV: distance-weighted GDP of trade partners

Data: product-destination-city-year trade data from the China Customs Statistical Information Service

Exogeneity: the GDP of foreign countries is beyond the control of a certain city; constant trade policies across China

Concern: nationalism drives the selection of trade partners?

(various robustness check: without the US, Japan, the EU, OECD countries, War8 countries, NATO countries etc.)


2SLS Results: (number of obs=200)


Cultural Origin Of Nationalism: Smith (1999), Anderson (2001)

Measure attitudes towards Chinese traditional culture

[Chinese Medicine] Traditional Chinese medicine exceeds modern mainstream medicine in a number of ways. (中国传统医学具有一些现代主流医学不能比拟的优势)

[Zhou-yi] Zhou-yi and Ba-gua are great achievements of our forefathers and can explain a wide range of phenomena. (周易八卦是老祖宗智慧的结晶，能够有效的解释很多事情)

[Confucianism] Modern China needs Confucianism. (现代中国社会需要儒家思想)


The Channel Is Not Culture


Other Concerns

Other confounding political ideologies: collectivism, populism, conservatism etc.

Internet as an outlet of extreme nationalism (or other feelings)

-- it is a private self test, other people cannot see

-- % of CPoC participants among netizens is not related to nationalism

(strongly disagree, disagree, agree, strongly agree) to (disagree, agree)


Analysis Within China, Over Time

The natural experiment: a member of the WTO before and after 2001

World Value Survey in China (WVS), 2001 and 2007

Advantages: the independent data source; widely used; individual-level demographic variables

Disadvantages: small number of observations (2, 038); province-level analysis


Measure Nationalism In The WVS

How proud are you to be Chinese?

Strong defense forces rank _______ among important goals of the country, relative to a high level of economic growth, people having more say about how things are done, and trying to make our cities and countryside more beautiful.

How much confidence do you have in the armed forces, relative to parliament, police, courts and civil service?


Correlation Between CPOC Index And The WVS Index


The Difference-in-differences Strategy

Unbalanced effects of the WTO membership

High (trade) exposure regions:

the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta

two trade centers: Shanghai and Hongkong

Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong

Low (trade) exposure regions: other 16 provinces


Unbalanced Effect Of The WTO On The Trade Volume

WTO Membership

High-exposure provinces

Low-exposure provinces

0.5

11.

5

open

ness

1995 2001 2007 2010year


Unbalanced Change In Nationalism

High-exposure provinces

Low-exposure provinces

1.8

1.9

22.

12.

2

natio

nalis

m

2001 2007year


DID Estimates(Individual Demographics: Gender, Age, Marital Status, Education, Income)

Province-level Individual-level

High-exposure dummy 0.077 0.057

(0.051) (0.059)

After WTO dummy -0.103** -0.076

(0.047) (0.049)

High-exposure*after WTO -0.155** -0.215***

(0.072) (0.064)

Log(GDP per capita) YES YES

Demographics NO YES

Number of obs 40 1,806


Cross-country Analysis

WVS 2001 and 2007, 15 countries

Data of GDP and trade: the Penn World Table (v 7.0)

control for country fixed effects

causality? trade policy could be endogenous


LEVELS OF NATIONALISM IN 2007

SwedenKorea

Japan

Argentina

SpainChile

IndonesiaCanada

South AfricaMexicoMoroccoChina

India

USA

Turkey

1.6

1.8

22.

22.

4

Inde

x of

Nat

iona

lism

in 2

007


Change In Nationalism V.S. Change In Openness, 2001 To 2007

Sweden

Korea

Japan

Argentina

Spain

ChileIndonesia

Canada South Africa

Mexico

Morocco

China

India

USA

Turkey

-.2-.1

0.1

.2

detre

nded

cha

nge

of n

atio

nalis

m

-.2 -.1 0 .1 .2detrended change of openness from 2001 to 2007


Country Fixed Effects Estimates

Country-level Individual-level

Econ-open-0.648** -0.708**

(0.274) (0.289)

Country Fixed EffectsYES

YES

Year Fixed EffectsYES

YES

Log(GDP per capita)NO

YES

DemographicsNO

YES

Number of obs30

73,866


Extra Readings


Extra Readings


References

Aghion, Philippe, Torsten Persson, and Dorothee Rouzet. “Education and Military Rivalry.” No. w18049. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

Alesina, Alberto, and Bryony Reich. “Nation Building.” No. w18839. National Bureau of Economic Research, (2013).

Cantoni, Davide, Yuyu Chen, David Y. Yang, Noam Yuchtman, and Y. Jane Zhang, “Curriculum and Ideology.” No. w20112. National Bureau of Economic Research (2014).

Clots-Figueras, Irma, and Paolo Masella. "Education, Language and Identity." Economic Journal 123.570 (2013): F332-F357.

Fisman, Raymond, Yasushi Hamao, and Yongxiang Wang. "Nationalism and Economic Exchange: Evidence from Shocks to Sino-Japanese Relations." Review of Financial Studies (2014)

Fuchs, Andreas, and Nils-Hendrik Klann. "Paying a Visit: The Dalai Lama Effect on International Trade." Journal of International Economics 91.1 (2013): 164-177.

Gellner, Ernest. Nations and Nationalism (2nd Edition). Cornell University Press, 2009.

Glennerster, Rachel, Edward Miguel, and Alexander D. Rothenberg. "Collective Action in Diverse Sierra Leone Communities." Economic Journal 123.568 (2013): 285-316.


References

Gries, Peter Hays. China’s New Nationalism: Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy. University of California Press, 2005.

Hobsbawm, Eric J. Nations and Nationalism since 1780: Programme, Myth, Reality. Cambridge University Press, 1990.

Lan, Xiaohuan, and Ben Li, “The Economics of Nationalism,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, (2014), forthcoming

Michaels, Guy, and Xiaojia Zhi. "Freedom Fries." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2.3 (2010): 256-281.

Posen, Barry “Nationalism, the Mass Army, and Military Power.” International Security 18.2 (1993): 80-124.

罗志田，乱世潜流：民族主义与民国政治，中国人民大学出版社，2013


Documents

LECTURE 3: NATION BUILDING AND NATIONALISMxiaohuanlan.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/1/3/19133549/lecture_3... · 《同心第一》v.s. 《论人 ... 1月，日本提出“二十一