Lecture08-Khung Hoang Tai Chinh Dong A

8/7/2019 Lecture08-Khung Hoang Tai Chinh Dong A

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Fulbright Economics Teaching Program Economic Development I Lecture 082002-03 Financial Crisis in EA

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t FulbrightHc k Thu 2003

KINH T PHT TRIN - I

Bi ging 08

KHNG HONG TI CHNH NG

Trong sut thp nin t 50 cho n 70, khng hong ti chnh (financial crisis) cc ncang pht trin (c bit l chu M Latinh) u xoay quanh h thng ti chnh b p ch,thm ht ngn sch gia tng v t gi hi oi cnh. Trong mt h thng ti chnh b pch, li sut c kim sot di mc cn bng gim chi ph cho vay. Chnh phngthi duy tr mt mc thm ht ngn sch ln, thng c ti trbi vay nc ngoi, hoctrong iu kin khng th lm nh vy th bng thu lm pht hay bng t l d tr bt buccao p t ln cc ngn hng thng mi. Thm ht ngn sch cao, lm pht gia tng nhng

t gi hi oi li c cnh. iu c ngha l chnh ph phi s dng d tr ngoi t bo v t gi hi oi. Mt c sc, v d nh t gi ngoi thng thay i theo chiuhng xu lm tng thm ht cn cn xut nhp khu, c th dn ti mt cuc tn cng mangtnh u cvo ng ni t v lm cn kit d tr ngoi hi. Chnh ph lc buc phi t

b t gi hi oi cnh v ng ni t ph gi. y l din bin in hnh ca mt cuckhng hong tin t (currency crisis).

Mt kha cnh khc ca khng hong ti chnh l khng hong ngn hng(banking crisis).Khi ngi dn mt nim tin vo h thng ngn hng, th h thng rt tin mt cch t. Vilng d tr hn hp, cc ngn hng c th nhanh chng ri vo tnh trng mt kh nngthanh ton. Tuy nhin, khng hong theo kiu ri lon ngn hng Anh Quc trong th k

19 c thc phng bng vai tr ngi cho vay cui cngca ngn hng trung ng.Khng hong trnn nghim trng hn khi cc ngn hng vn cho vay vo cc d n riro cao, khng hiu qu. Trc trc thng ny sinh khi cc quy nh kinh doanh ti chnh thntrng khng c hoc khng c thc thi v cc khon cho vay c ngm bo m. Do vy,tm l li xut hin v lm cc ngn hng cho vay bt cn. Kt cc l t l nxu gia tng,ngn hng mt vn v ri vo tnh trng ph sn.

Khng hong tin t v khng hong ngn hng c thi lin vi nhau, ci n dn ti ci kiav to nn ci gi l khng hong kp (twin crisis). Khi , khng hong ti chnh trnn rttrm trng v c th dn ti khng hong v kinh t - x hi. Nh trng hp ng chothy, cc t tn cng u cvo ng baht xy ra vo thng 7 nm 1997 lm chnh ph

Thi Lan phi bo vng tin ca mnh bng cch s dng d tr ngoi t. Khi d tr ngoit gn cn kit, Thi Lan buc phi th ni t gi. Khng hong nhanh chng lan ra cc ncng khc. ng ni t ca Hn Quc, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines u chu scp. S ph gi ng ni t cc nc ny cng vi li sut gia tng lm nhiu doanhnghi p trc y vay n bng ngoi t khng cn kh nng chi tr. Kh khn ca doanhnghip nhanh chng trthnh kh khn ca cc t chc ti chnh v khng hong ngn hngxy ra.

Mt cch gii thch ph bin nht v khng hong tp trung vo nhng trc trc trong ni ticc nn kinh t, c bit l trong h thng ti chnh. Cch phn b tn dng theo chnh(vi cc khon vay c chnh ph ngm bo m), mc d t ra thnh cng trong giai on

u ca qu trnh cng nghip ha, dn ti u t qu mc, tham nhng v hiu qu s

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dng vn ngy cng xung thp. Ch ngha t bn theo kiu quan h gia nh, bn b (cronycapitalism) ng cng gp phn lm bin dng cch phn b tn dng.

i lin vi nhng yu km trong h thng ti chnh ni a l cc yu t t bn ngoi. T doha ti chnh c y mnh, bt u t vic nng li sut ni a, ri tin n xa b kim

sot trong khi khng tng cng cch gim st, v mca ti khon vn. Nhng chnh schny, cng vi chnh sch duy tr t gi hi oi cnh, khuyn khch dng vn ncngoi chy vo, m ch yu l vn ngn hn. Cc ngn hng trong nc, nhn c vn tnc ngoi mt cch d dng, tip tc y mnh cho cc doanh nghip trong nc vay vn.Kt qu l hng lot doanh nghip vay nvi t l cao, k hn ngn, nhng li u t vo ccd n di hn nhiu ri ro. H thng ti chnh ngy cng trnn d b tn thng.

Mt quan im gii thch khc cho rng cc nh u t nc ngoi vo ng mt lng tinnn rt vn t. ng trc nhng thnh cng v tng trng ca khu vc, h vn vikhi lng ln vo cc nn kinh tng . Nhng g xy ra ging nh mt cn hong lonrt tin khi h thng ngn hng. Chnh hnh vi ny lm cho cc nn kinh tng ,

ging nh cc ngn hng, khng cn kh nng thanh ton. Theo quan im ny, th liu thuccn a ra l c mt t chc t chc ng vai tr lm ngi cho vay cu cnh cui cng.

Cch gii thch th ba l cuc khng hong ng xy ra do s tn cng ca cc nh u cln v cc quu t chng khon chnh lch gi hng thu li nhun t s vti chnh.

Sau y, chng ta s phn tch cc nguyn nhn gy ra cuc khng hong trn csba cchgii thch trn. Mi cch gii thch nhn mnh nhng nguyn nhn khc nhau.

I. Cch gii thch th nht Tm l li v u t bong bng

1. Tm l li

Tu thp nin 1990, t do ha ti chnh c tin hnh vi nhp t thu ht cc nnkinh tng v ng Nam . Mc d vy, vic chnh ph can thip trong phn b tn dngvn tn ti nhiu nc nh Hn Quc, Indonesia, Malaysia v i Loan. Khi tn dng cchnh th cch gim st v cc quy nh v hot ng thn trng thng c coi nh.1Hn th na, khi cc ngn hng cho vay theo cho ca chnh ph th lun tn ti mt ginh ngm rng chnh ph s bo lnh v cu gip nu khon vay khng i c. Thmch ngay cmt s nn kinh t nh Thi Lan, ni chnh ph t c can thip hn vo phn btn dng, th nhng ngi cp vn cho cc cng ty ti chnh vn tin rng mnh sc bom khi tnh ti nhng mi quan h chnh tr m ch shu ca cc t chc ti chnh ny c

c.

Chnh v vy, mc d khng h c s bo lnh chnh thc ca chnh ph, nhng cc t chcti chnh ng , c bit l cc ngn hng nh nc hay ngn hng ln, lun coi mnh lqu ln nn khng th tht bi. Krugman (1998) a ra quan im cho rng cuc khnghong ng bt ngun chnh t tm l li trong h thng ti chnh: cc t chc ti chnhc bo lnh ngm c ng ckhng ch thc hin cc hot ng u t ri ro, m cn

1

Cc quy nh v hot ng thn trng bao gm t l vn/ti sn cho vay m bo t trn mt mc ti thiu;gii hn t l tn dng ti a dnh cho mt i tng vay vn ring r; gim st h thng k ton xc nh rcc khon nkh i;

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theo ui tt c cc d n c sut sinh li k vng thp nu cc d n ny c li ln trongtrng hp thnh cng. Sau y l v d minh ha.

Gi s, mt cng ty ti chnh huy ng c khon vn v sau mt nm s phi trD. Cngty u t vo mt d n cho doanh thu rng sau mt nm lR. NuR >=D th cng ty ti

chnh s hon trc khon vn huy ng v cn li gi tr li l V=R D. Cn nuR


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Tm l li cng xut hin i vi dng vn nc ngoi. Cc nh u t nc ngoi khi chovay cc t chc ti chnh trong nc vay cng ngm ginh rng khon cho vay ca mnh sc chnh ph nc s ti bo lnh khi nhn thy quan h gn gi gia chnh ph vi ccngn hng ni a. Khi kinh t tng trng kh, lng vn nc ngoi chy vo nhiu thkhng ai ngh rng li c th khng o c nhay vay mi khi cc khon vay trc y

n ko hn.

Dng vn chy vo to nn s bng n tn dng trong khu vc. Trong thp nin 1990, tndng ngn hng cp cho khu vc t nhn tng ln nhanh chng. Ti cui nm 1996, tng gitr n ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn trn GDP ln ti hn 140% Hn Quc v Thi Lan(bng 2). Mc cung tin M2 Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Philippines, Malaysia v Indonesia tnggn 20%/nm trong nm 1996 v 1997.

Bng 2: Nti chnh ca khu vc tnhn so vi GDP (%)

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Korea 103.1 110.7 121.3 128.8 133.5 140.9

Thailand 88.6 98.4 110.8 128.1 142.0 141.9

Ngun: Radelet v Sachs (1998).

Mt im ng lu na l hng lot cc khon vay nc ngoi ngn hn c u t dihn. Thi Lan vay nc ngoi ch yu thng qua cc ngn hng v cng ty ti chnh. Ngnhng Hn Quc cng vay nc ngoi. Trong trng hp ca Indonesia, cc doanh nghip vaync ngoi trc tip trn th trng vn hi ngoi(NHTG 1998). Bng 3 trnh by tnh hnhnngn hn nc ngoi so vi d tr ngoi t ca cc nc ng vo thi im trc khi

xy ra khng hong. Ch c hai nc Malaysia v Philippines trong s nm nc chu khnghong l c d tr ngoi t cao hn nngn hn. Nngn hn nc ngoi cao hn d trngoi t c ngha l trong thi gian ngn nn kinh t s khng c kh nng chi tr.

Bng 3: Nngn hn vo qu II nm 1997

Nngn hn nc ngoi(t USD)

D tr ngoi t(t USD)

T l nngn hnso vi d tr

Hn Quc 70,18 34,07 2,06

Thi Lan 45,57 31,36 1,45

Indonesia 34,66 20,34 1,70

Malaysia 16,27 26,59 0,61

Philippines 8,29 9,78 0,85Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.

Mt t trng ln vn cho vay ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng c tptrung vo khu vc bt ng sn. Indonesia, cc khon cho vay khu vc bt ng sn tng37%/nm trong giai on 1992-95 (trong khi tng tn dng ngn hng ch tng 22%/nm). Thi Lan, cc khon cho vay bt ng sn ca nhng cng ty ti chnh tng 41%/nm tronggiai on 1990-95 (trong khi tng tn dng ch tng 33%/nm). Hn Quc, cc khon cho vayca ngn hng c tp trung ch yu vo cc tp on ln (Chaebol). Hnh 4 cho thy t l n/vnc phn ca cc doanh nghip cng nghip ca Hn Quc ln ti 317% vo cui nm 1996 (trong khit l ny M vo khong 100%).

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Hnh 3: T l % gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cngnghip ch bin ca cc cng ty ti chnh Thi Lantrong tng dn(%)

5

10

15

20

25

30

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Bat ong san

Cong nghiep che bien

Ngun: Marcus Miller v Pongsak Luangaram (1998).

Hnh 4: T l n/vn c phn ca khu vc cng nghipch bin Hn Quc (%)

270

280

290

300

310

320

1993 1994 1995 1996

Ngun: Marcus Miller v Pongsak Luangaram (1998).

3. Bong bng gi ti sn

Mt h qu ca tm l li v u t ri ro l tng gi ti sn. Tm l li khuyn khch cct chc ti chnh gia tng u t cho d cc d n c sut sinh li k vng thp. Nu u tc tp trung vo cc ti sn c mc cung cnh (v d nh bt ng sn m hu ht cccng ty ti chnh Thi Lan u t vo), th gi ti sn s gia tng. Mt k vng theo kiuxoay vng pht sinh. Mi ngi u t vo bt ng sn v k vng gi bt ng sn s tng

ln. Khi lng u t tng lm tng cu th gi bt ng ng l i ln nh k vng. Bongbng gi c hnh thnh. Cc t chc ti chnh khi cho vay u t vo bt ng sn cngsn sng tip tc cho vay v thy qu an ton (tc l khi t c dng lm ti sn th chpv gi t li tng ln). Sau y l v d minh ha.

Gi t hin l 100$. Cng ty ti chnh huy ng 100$ u t vi bo lnh ngm ca chnhph. Ba tnh hung c th xy ra (vi xc sut ngang bng nhau): (i) tnh hung tt, gi ttng ln 127$; (ii) tnh hung bnh thng, gi t vn l 100$; v (iii) tnh hung xu, git ch c 73$. Gi k vng ca t bng ng 100.3

3 khng phi chit khu, ta coi tt c cc gi tr trn l nhng gi tr c quy v hin ti.

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V c bo m ngm, nn khi tnh hung xu xy ra v b l 27$, nhng cng ty ti chnhkhng phi chu (chnh ph s b 27$). Vy, li nhun k vng s l: (1/3)*(27 + 0 + 0) = 9$.Vi li nhun k vng nh vy, mi nh u t s cnh tranh mua t v gi t s byln: 100 + 9 = 109$.

Vi gi t by ln 109$, cng ty ti chnh vn sn sng b ra 109$ u t. V nu tnhhung tt xy ra th vn li 18$ (=127-109), cn trong hai tnh hung kia th c b l.Li nhun k vng l: (1/3)*(18 + 0 + 0) = 6$. Mi ngi tip tc cnh tranh mua t v git s khng phi l 109$ m l 115$ (=109+6).

Vi gi t l 115$, cng ty ti chnh tip tc u t. Nu tnh hung tt xy ra th li thuc l 12$ (=127-115), cn trong hai tnh hung kia th c chnh ph b l. Li nhun kvng l: (1/3)*(12 + 0 + 0) = 4$. Cnh tranh mua t lm gi t trthnh 119$ (=115+4).

Gi t tng n khi no? Ta thy rng chng no tnh hung tt xy ra v vn cn c linhun (tc l gi nh hn 127$) th ngi ta tip tc u t v gi t tip tc tng. Khi gi

t bng 127$ th li nhun k vng bng 0 v gi t khng tng na.Vy, nu khng c tm l li th gi t l 100$. Khi c tm l li, gi t trthnh 127$.

Ni mt cch khc, t c nh gi nh th l ch c tnh hung tt xy ra. Bng 4 tm ttkt qu ca v d bng s ny.

Bng 4: Gi u ckhi c tm l li

Gi t vo cui giai on (vi xc sut nh nhau)

73 100 127Vnut Li nhn c trong ba tnh hung xy ra

Li nhun kvng nhn

c Gi t

100 0 0 127-100=27 (1/3)*27 = 9 100+9=109

109 0 0 127-109=18 (1/3)*18 = 6 109+6=115

115 0 0 127-115=12 (1/3)*12 = 4 115+4=119

119 0 0 127-119=8 (1/3)*8 = 2,67 115+2,67=121,67

127 0 0 127-127=0 0 127+0=127

Bong bng gi c phnh ngy mt ln th sn lc b v; tc l n khi cc nh u t btu nhn thy c l tnh hnh thc t x ra khng ng vi k vng. Mt qu trnh ngc livi qu trnh trn din ra. Mi ngi bn ti sn v k vng gi ti sn s gim. Ti sn c

bn ra t nn gi ti sn ng l gim xung. Cc ngn hng nhn thy gi tr ti sn thchp gim xung nn khng cho vay na v i nhng khon cho vay c v. Cc nh u t,do phi hon tr nvay, nn cng phi y mnh vic bn ti sn. Gi ti sn v vy sp ,v thng gim xung di c mc cn bng u tin. Hnh 5 cho thy gi bt ng sn Thi Lan v Indonesia tng ln nhanh chng vo cui thp nin 80 v n nm 1997 th thtrng bt ng sn bt u sp .

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Hnh 5: Ch s gi cao c vn phng ti Thi Lan v Indonesia

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Jakarta

Bangkok

Ngun: Ly t Marcus Miller v Pongsak Luangaram (1998).

4. Mt cn i vm

T nm 1996, tc tng trng kinh t ca cc nc ng bt u chng li. Tc tngtrng kim ngch xut khu ca cc nc ng mc 19-21% trong nm 1995-95 gimxung 4% trong nm 1996. Nguyn nhn lm chng li xut khu bao gm: (i) tng trngthng mi ton cu suy gim; (ii) ng yn mt gi; (iii) t gi hi oi thc hiu dng cacc nc ng ln gi; (iv) lng cu v gi ca cc mt hng xut khu, c bit l int, suy gim.

Bng 5: Tng trng xut khu ng (%)1994 1995 1996 1997

Thi Lan 19 20 -1 3

Hn Quc 14 23 4 5

Malaysia 20 21 6 1

Indonesia 8 12 9 7

Philippines 17 24 14 21

Hng Kng 11 13 4 4

Singapore 24 18 5 -1

i Loan 9 17 4 4

Trung Quc 25 19 2 21Ngun: NHTG, East Asia The Road to Recoverty, 1998.

Du hiu r nht l Thi Lan. Vic ng baht c gn cnh vi ng la M lmcho t gi hi oi thc ln gi (khi ng la ln gi lin tc so vi ng yn). Thm ht tikhon vng lai ca Thi Lan vo nm 1996 ln ti 8% GDP, trong khi con s ca bn nccn li trong khong 3,4-4,8%. Mc thm ht ny tip tc c ti trbi dng vn vayngn hn nc ngoi chy vo (theo NHTG 1998).

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Bng 6: Thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)

1994 1995 1996

Hn Quc -0,96 -1,74 -4,42

Thi Lan -5,59 -8,05 -8,05

Malaysia -6,07 -9,73 -4,42

Indonesia -1,58 -3,18 -3,37

Philippines -4,60 -2,67 -4,77Ngun: NHTG, Ch s pht trin th gii 2002.

5. Khng hong kp

Du hiu ca khng hong xut hin u tin Thi Lan, ni c cc yu t kinh t vm cnbn xu i r nht. S st gi trn th trng bt ng sn v th trng chng khon lm ccnh u t lo ngi v tnh bn vng ca h thng ti chnh ca Thi Lan. Thm ht ti khon

vng lai cao to nn k vng v s ph gi ca ng baht. T gia nm 1996, ng baht c bn ra hng lot. Nhng ngi vay ngoi t trc y tin rng t gi hi oi c cnh th nay bt u lo ngi v cng mua la vo m bo c la tr nkhi o hn.Chnh ph Thi Lan ban u dng d tr ngoi t bo v t gi nhng cng khng c khnng duy tr c lu. ng baht c th ni vo u thng 7 nm 1997 v ngay lp tc mtgi 10%, ri gi tr tip tc gim xung sau .

Hnh 6: T gi hi oi danh ngha chnh thc (ni t/USD)

Hn Quc (Won) Thi Lan (Baht) Indonesia (Rupiah)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

20

25

30

35

40

45

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Malaysia (Ringgit) Philippines (Peso) Singapore (S-dollar)

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

24

26

28

30

32

34

3638

40

42

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

88

90

92

94

96

98

100102

104

106

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Ngun: NHTG, World Development Indicators, 2002.

i lin vi khng hong tin t l khng hong ngn hng. Li sut cao trong thi gian chnhph bo v t gi buc c cc t chc ti chnh v cc i tng vay vn lm vo tnh th kh

khn. Hng lot cng ty ti chnh ca Thi Lan ph sn trc c khi ph gi ng baht. V

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khi ng baht b ph gi, trch nhim nphi tr tnh ra ng ni t ca cc khon nncngoi tng vt, ko theo s ph sn ca nhiu doanh nghip v t chc ti chnh na.

Bng 7: Tng trng GDP thc (%/nm)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Hn Quc 8,92 6,75 5,01 -6,69 10,89 8,81

Thi Lan 9,31 5,88 -1,45 -10,77 4,22 4,31

Malaysia 9,83 10,00 7,32 -7,36 6,08 8,30

Indonesia 8,40 7,64 4,70 -13,13 0,85 4,77

Philippines 4,68 5,85 5,19 -0,58 3,40 4,01

Trung Quc 10,53 9,58 8,84 7,80 7,05 7,94

Vit Nam 9,54 9,34 8,15 5,80 4,80 5,50Ngun: NHTG, World Development Indicators, 2002.

Khng hong nhanh chng lan ra Hn Quc, Malaysia v Indonesia. ng ringgit v rupiahu chu sc p v sau cng u b ph gi. ng won Hn Quc, nhcch t gi linh hot,nn mt gi t nm 1996. Dng vn ngn hn chy vo Hn Quc, git chy ra. Mtlot cc cng ty ln (chaebol) ca Hn Quc ph sn. Cng ging nh Thi Lan, th trng

bt ng sn v c phiu Malaysia sp . T l nkh i trong h thng ngn hng tngln, mt phn l do cc khon cho vay khng sinh li cp cho cc doanh nghip ni a, mt

phn l do cc khon cho vay cc c nhn u t chng khon, giy khng th hon tr sogi chng khon gim st. Tuy vy, tnh trng ca Malaysia t nghim trng hn do nngoit ngn hn khng nhiu. Indonesia chu tc ng mnh nht. Hng lot t chc ti chnh sp

vi cc khon cho vay da vo quan h c nhn v cho vay theo cho ca chnh ph trthnh n xu. ng rupiah trt gi hu nh khng th hm li. Khng hong ti chnhchuyn sang mt cuc khng hong su sc v chnh tr.

II. Cch gii thch th hai - Rt vn t v tht bi trong phi hp

Radelet v Sachs (1998) a ra tng rng trc trc ng ny sinh do nh u t mtnim tin v khng hong xy ra l mt cuc khng hong mt tnh thanh khon. S tht bitrong phi hp lm cho cc nh u tng lot rt vn. Mt ngn hng ang hot ngtt nhng b ngi gi tin n rt tin t cng lm vo tnh trng kh khn. Mc d, gi trti sn c vn ln hn gi tr ti sn n(tc l xt v tiu chun ti chnh th ngn hng vn

ng vng), nhng ngay ti thi im b rt tin ng lot th khng c kh nng tr tin chott c nhng ai mun rt tin. Nh vy, ngn hng ri vo tnh trng khng cn kh nngthanh ton (hay mt tnh thanh khon).

ng ri vo tnh trng cc nh u t khng cn tin rng d tr ngoi t tr nngnhn. C cc nh u t nc ngoi ln trong nc u mun chuyn vn ra. Ngn hng ili vn cho vay, t chi o nv ngng cho vay mi; cn cc nh u t chng khon th

bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t v chuyn ra ngoi. Ring trong nm 1997, hn 20 t USDrng c a ra khi 5 nc ng chu khng hong, trong khi trong nm 1996 vn cnnhn c gn 66 t USD (bng 8).

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Bng 8: Vn tnhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia v Philippines), 1991-96 - T USD

1996 1997 1998 1999

Vn t nhn rng 65,8 -20,4 -25,6 -24,6

u t trc ti p rng 8,4 10,3 8,6 10,2u t chng khon rng 20,3 12,9 -6,0 6,3

Vay thng mi v u t khc 37,1 -43,6 -28,2 -41,1

Vin trchnh thc rng -0,4 17,9 19,7 -4,7Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 3/2000.

ng theo cch gii thch ca Radelet v Sachs, s thiu vng cch gii quyt ndoanhnghip v nngn hng mt cch trt t buc c doanh nghip tt cng nh doanh nghiptrc trc phi lm vo tnh trng kh khn v lm trm trng cuc khng hong ti chnh.

Ta c th minh ha ci gii thch ca Radelet v Sachs bng mt v d l thuyt tr chi sau.4

Mt nhm cc t chc ti chnh cho cc doanh nghip mt quc gia ng vay tin. Muthun lun tn ti gia cc ch n. Trong trng hp nn kinh t ca quc gia vay ngpkh khn, trc trc, ch nno nhanh chn c thi li c ton b khon cho vay, cn aichm chn th c th khng i c g. Vn ny c th khuyn khch cc ch ncng x i rt vn cho d nn kinh t ch c kh khn ti chnh nht thi v v di hn th vnvng mnh.

V d, mt doanh nghip ni a vay tin ca hai ngn hng nc ngoi A v B. Nay nhn v doanh nghip phi tr mi ngn hng l 10 triu $. Tuy nhin, do gp mt s kh khntm thi nn s tin m doanh nghip c th dng tr nhin thp nhiu so vi con s 20

triu $. (Mc d gi tr ti sn ca doanh nghip t 20 triu $, nhng tin thanh khon hinc th ch l 10 triu $).

Hai ngn hng A v B ng trc la chn: hoc i nngay hoc cho hon n thm mtnm. Nu c hai cng i nth doanh nghip buc phi pht mi ti sn. Ginh rng trnhnhim nduy nht ca X l i vi hai ngn hng v gi tr ti sn sau pht mi l 16 triu $(mt 4 triu $ ph tn pht mi). Mi ngn hng s nhn c 8 triu $. Nu c hai ngn hngcng hon nth doanh nghip X c th hi phc v sau mt nm mi ngn hng s nhn li9 triu $ (tnh theo gi tr hin ti). Mi ngn hng vn b thit 1 triu $ do phi hon n. NuA i nv B hon n th A s nhn c li c 10 triu $, cn B khng nhn c g.iu ngc li xy ra nu B i nv A hon n. Ton b thng tin trn c thc tm tt

trong bng 9 di y.

Ngn hng BBng 9Hon n i n

Hon n 9; 9 0; 10Ngnhng A i n 10; 0 8; 8

Ta thy, nu B hon n th tt nht l A i n(v s nhn c 10 thay v 9 nu hon n);nu B i nth tt nht l A vn i n(v s nhn c 8 thay v 0 nu hon n). Nh vy,A s lun i n. Lp lun tng t, ta thy B cng lun i n. Nh vy, im cn bng

4 Xem li bi ging v l thuyt tr chi trong mn kinh t vi m.

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(gi l cn bng Nash) l c A v B u i nv mi bn nhn c 8 triu $. Doanh nghipphi pht mi ti sn tr n. im cn bng ny r rng l khng hiu qu v mt x hi.Nu A v B cng hon nth mi bn s nhn c 9 triu $, cao hn so vi im cn bngNash. Tuy nhin, do tht bi trong phi hp nn A v B lun i n.

III. Cch gii thch th ba - Tn cng ca cc nh u c ln

Cc nh u t ln rt vn c th gy tc ng ln n nn kinh t m h u t. Tng tnh vy, h cng c thu cv nh cc vo tnh hnh ti chnh ca mt nn kinh t.Theo nh li buc ti ca Th tng Malaysia Mahatir, cuc khng hong 1997/98 l dohnh ng ca cc nh u cln, cc quu t chng khon chnh lch gi (m nhn vtc nu tn l George Soros). Thc t ca nhiu cuc khng hong tin t trc cho thykhi t gi k hn c nh da trn t gi cnh th cc nh u cc th kim li bngcch bn khng ng ni t (hay mua ngoi t theo hp ng k hn, tng lai) v rt ngoit khi ng ni t st gi.

Tuy nhin, ti ng khng thy c bng chng r rng cho thy c hot ng u cln.Mt s quu t chng khon chnh lch gi ng l c bn khng ng baht nhng vothi im gia nm 1997 th nhiu nh u t trong nc cng lm nh vy. C v nh l ccnh u ctheo ui cc cng ty trong nc ch khng phi l ngc li. Ch c trng hpca Hng Kng l cc nh u ctn cng mnh m vo ng la Hng Kng.

Tn cngng la Hng Kng

Hng Kng l ni thc hin vic qun l tin t theo cch Ban tin t (Currency Board).T nm 1983, t gi hi oi gia ng la HK v la Mc cnh mc 7,8 HKD

bng 1 USD. Ban tin t ly mc d tr ngoi hi USD nhn vi 7,8. y chnh l lng ni

t ( la Hng Kng) c php lu hnh. Nh vy trong cch ny, cung tin ni a s dolng d tr ngoi t quyt nh. Nguyn tc l tng iu chnh. Nu d tr ngoi higim, th cung ni t cng gim theo. Nu d tr ngoi hi tng, th cung la Hng Kngcng tng. Nh vy nu cu USD tng qu mc (nhp khu qu cao hoc ngi ta x muaUSD), th cung ni t s gim i. iu ny ko gi c v nhp khu gim xung. Bng cchduy tr cch ny, chnh ph c thn nh v bo v t gi hi oi.

Trong thi gian xy ra khng hong tin t nm 1994 Mexico, cc nh u ccng tncng ng HKD nhm buc chnh quyn Hng Kng phi ph gi t cc nh u chng li. Chin lc ca cc nh u cl vay tin HKD. (Ch yu cc nh u cl t bnngoi v khng c sn HKD). Sau , h bn HKD v mua vo la (theo t gi cnh7,8). Cc nh u chy vng khi lng HKD c bn ra t, cu USD HK s gia tng.Chnh quyn Hng Kng s s dng d tr bo v t gi. Nu khng bo vc v ngHKD buc phi b ph gi th cc nh u cs hng li do by gic th bn la vi gicao hn t gi mua vo 7,8. Tuy nhin khon li ny phi cao hn tin li phi tr khi vayHKD. Do chng li cuc tn cng u cny, chnh quyn Hng Kng lp tc tng lisut cho vay bng ng HKD. ng thi do tun th theo cch currency board nn vilng d tr di do, t gi hi oi 7,8 c gi nguyn. Cc nh u ckhng thu c lit vic giao dch ngoi hi v li b l ln do phi tr li sut cao.

n nm 1997-98, khi khng hong ti chnh ng xy ra, cc nh u cli tip tc tncng ng HKD. Trong ln tn cng vo thng 8 nm 1998, do don c vic tng lisut ca chnh quyn HKD, cc nh u cthc hin chin lc tn cng trn hai mt trn.Trong khi va thc hin cc giao dch nh trong nm 1994, cc nh u ccn bn khng c

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phiu trn th trng chng khon Hng Kng. L do l khi chnh quyn Hng Kng tng lisut bo v t gi, gi c phiu s gim. Do vy, cho d c khng thu c li nhun tvic tn cng tin t th cc nh u cvn thu c li nhun t vic bn khng c phiu.iu m cc nh u ckhng lng trc c l chnh quyn Hng Kng, trong n lcchng li s xung gi, dng tin d tr mua c phiu. Kt qu cui cng l gi c

phiu khng gim; cc nh u ctht bi c trong hot ng tn cng t gi cng nh trongbn khng c phiu.

Chng ta c thtm tt cuc khng hongng bng s sau:

ng

Dng vn ncngoi chy vo

N mnh gi ngoi t vk hn ngn gia tng

Khng hong

Tn cng u c

Vn chy ra ngoi Ngn hng v doanh

nghip ph sn

Tnh hnh kinh tvm

T gi hi oi thc bnng gi

Thm ht thng migia t

Phn bvn sai lch

u tqu mc Bong bng gi ti sn Tham nhng

Chnh sch kinh tvm

T gi hi oi cnh

Tnh hnh ti chnh

T l n kh i cao

Mt cn xng v khn gia ti sn n vti sn c

H thng ti chnh ni a

Tp trung vo ngn hng Gim st yu km Tm l li

Ti liu tham kho

Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.

IMF, World Economic Outllook, cc s 12/1997, 5/1998 v 3/2000.

Krugman, Paul, What happened to Asia?, Chulalongkorn Journal of Economics, 1998.

Miller, Marcus & Pongsak Luangaram, Financial Crisis in East Asia: bank run, assetbubbles and antidotes, National Institute Economic Review, No. 165, 1998.

Radelet, Steven & Jeffrey Sachs, The East Asia Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies,Prospects, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1998.

World Bank, East Asia The Road to Recovery, 1998.

Documents

Lecture08-Khung Hoang Tai Chinh Dong A