Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Lietuvos hidrometeorologijos tarnybaprie Aplinkos ministerijos
Applying the knowledge acquired within WMO fellowship at ZAMG
(Austria) and DWD (Germany)
Izolda Marcinonienė¹ , Judita Liukaitytė²
Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service
Outline
Introduction• Motivation3 months at ZAMG (Vienna)6 months at DWD (Freiburg)Outcomes• Lithuania - a member of SatRep Programme• Start and development of Heat-Health Warning System at LHMSAdvantages and recommendations Future works
Motivation
• Why?• Where?• When?• The recent experience (NOMEK, EUMETSAT and ECMWF
workshops, Eumetcal blended courses, EumeTrain minicourses, Nordic Council of Ministers fellowship for 2 weeks at SMHI and NMI)
• Encouragement (Director, colleagues, family…)• If not ME, then WHO?
WHY?
Distribution of severe weather phenomena1961-2008
315
76
43 39 3924
8 4 20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Rain Hail Wind Blizzard Snow Tornado Sleetcover
Snow/ice-stick
Freezingrain
Frequency of severe weather phenomena1961-2008
0,68 0,42 0,14
0,07
0,04
0,75
0,68
1,33
5,53
Rain Hail Wind Blizzard Snow
Tornado Sleet cover Snow /ice-stick Freezing rain
WHY SATREP?
• Lack of knowledge• Actual and useful everyday information • Easy and quick to exercise• The only easy way to get fresh scientific interpretation of the
actual weather • Determination of conceptual models• Keep pace with European NMHSs
WHY BIOMETEOROLOGY?
• Useful and contemporary information to common people • Lack of knowledge• Improve and reform biometeorological forecasting in Lithuania• Keep pace with European NMHSs• Work on PhD Thesis
WHY ZAMG?
• One of the main institutions for severe weather case studies and analysis in Europe
• Good impression about work done by collegues and teachers from ZAMG (according to workshops, courses, SatRepOnline)
• Clear and useful scientific material published by Austrian meteorologists
Start (pre-work)
• Director’s proposal and encouragement• Application• Waiting for WMO decision• Correspondence with representatives of ZAMG and DWD• Final decision
Fellowship at ZAMG
Plans:
• Selfstudies and making international SatRep• SatRep workshop in Zagreb• Severe weather case studies in Lithuania and Austria• SatRep weather briefing and short presentation online• Introduction to the structure and work of the Institute
Workshop in Zagreb “How to make SatRep?”
5-8 July 2007: extremely rainy period in Lithuania
WV+PV (1)
12/06/07/
2007
Cyclone track, 05-08 July, 2007
Final results
• 4 dangerous meteorologic events in Lithuania and Austria have been studied and 1 published on EumeTrain website
• Workshop and oral presentation in Zagreb• EUMETNET SatRep Board Meeting in Vienna• Daily duty on making international SatRepOnline• Self-confidence• Encouragement to colleagues for a new challenge
The most imposing view in Vienna, November 2008
Activities & tasks carried out:
• Experience and background in biometeorological forecasting in order to produce thermal stress, pollen, weather classes, UV and heat forecasts;
• Intercomparison of operational Heat-health Warning Systems;• Analysis of UV data;• Rewiev of impacts of different weather types on health;• Presentation at Freiburg University on Weather Forecasting;• Selfstudies.
Fellowship at DWD
HHWSs in Europe, 2006
16 countries with HHWSs could be identified;most systems implemented since 2003;different methods (heat wave definitions); sometimes regional specific thresholds;not all countries have heat wave response plans;lead times: 1 - 3 days
HHWSs in Europe, June 2009
Taxonomy of operational HHWS in Europe (status: 2009). Tmax: maximum temperature; Tmean: mean temperature; Tmin: minimum temperature; AT: apparent temperature; T: Temperature; RH: relative humidity; PT: perceived temperature. ?: not known.
30 countries with HHWSs could be identified;different methods (heat wave definitions); sometimes regional specific thresholds;not all countries have heat plans;lead times: 1 - 5 days
Solved problems with UV data
• UV amount is growing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5UVI
%Ozone UVI
withcloud
UVI cloud free
measured mean
325,7 5,4 5,4
forecasted mean:
321,5 3,5 5
bias +4,2 -1,9 -0,4
City Kaunastime series: 2008-03-31 - 2008-10-04
measurements: 177
UVI forecast with clouds: Measured > forecasted 93%
UV doses are growing
UVI forecast was wrong
Solved problems with UV data
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Kau
nas
10.0
1.20
08
25.0
1.20
08
09.0
2.20
08
24.0
2.20
08
10.0
3.20
08
25.0
3.20
08
09.0
4.20
08
24.0
4.20
08
09.0
5.20
08
24.0
5.20
08
08.0
6.20
08
23.0
6.20
08
08.0
7.20
08
23.0
7.20
08
07.0
8.20
08
22.0
8.20
08
06.0
9.20
08
21.0
9.20
08
06.1
0.20
08
21.1
0.20
08
05.1
1.20
08
20.1
1.20
08
05.1
2.20
08
20.1
2.20
08
Kaunas and Munich: the same data but it can not be true!
Participation in scientific events• Training School at UTCI in
Warsaw, April 2009; • Presentation on “Heat-health
warning systems in Europe” in Third Biannual Workshop on Climate and Health held in Boulder, USA, July, 2009;
• Planning meeting on Heat-health warning systems, Shanghai, China, July, 2009.
Unique event – she saw the Solar Eclipse in Shanghai
When day becomes night
Outcomes
• Lithuania - a member of SATREP programme• More qualified analysis of severe weather phenomena• Case study poster presentation at ECSS2009 in Landshut• Biometeorology group at LHMS• Start and development of Heat-health Warning System at
LHMS• Closer international cooperation between LHMS and foreign
NMHSs or Institutes
5th European Conference on Severe Storms, Landshut, October, 2009.
Very strong convection at the Baltic coast of Lithuania on 25 November 2008
Monthly precipitation distribution in Nida, November, 2008; abscissa-days, ordinate-amount of precipitation (mm)
IR, PVA on 500 hPa, AT1000 hPa and AT500 hPa, 00 UTC, 25 Nov.
Advantages, notes, recommendations
• The main value of the fellowship Gain knowledge and make contact with highly-qualified specialists Wider view on conceptual models and biometeorology New ideas to improve forecaster’s work and make it up-to-date New advantageous challenges to LHMS The first and interesting experience provided for ZAMG• Notes Useful requirement - to write a report about work done Easy and flexible way to set the date and place with WMO
representatives Scope of the fellowship chosen very well Too long response by e-mails from WMO It was not easy to find an institute for fellowship in biometeorology• Recommendations• Too much paperwork and information to fill in application form• Better to buy flight tickets by fellow and then reimburse the money• Support for short studies of local languages - big help to familiarize with
national culture and people
Future works
• Regional SatRepOnline• SatRep workshop in Vilnius• Participation in WMO project at EXPO2010• Origination of biometeorological forecasts at LHMS• Integration into European Heat-health Warning System• New application for WMO fellowship in Radar Meteorology
Thank You!
