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6/23/2016 UK's Brexit campaign has slender lead over rival 'In' camp, say opinion polls - Times of India

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/UKs-Brexit-campaign-has-slender-l ead-over-r ival-In-camp-say-opinion-polls/articleshow/52873945.cms?

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UK's Brexit campaign has slender lead over rival 'In' camp, say opinion polls

Reuters | Jun 22, 2016, 11.03 PM IST

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Highlights

EXPAND

1. TNS, a market research firm, said 43 per cent of respondents would vote to leave, while 41 per cent would vote to remain2. Another survey published by polling firm Opinium put support for "Leave" at 45 per cent and "Remain" at 44 per cent.
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/UKs-Brexit-campaign-has-slender-l ead-over-r ival-In-camp-say-opinion-polls/articleshow/52873945.cms? 2

Vote leave campaign. (Reuters photo)LONDON: The campaign for Britain to leave the European Unionhas a slender lead over the rival

BACKGROUND X

'Brits don't quit', Cameron says in rare TV appeal against Brexit

British Prime Minister David Cameron appeals people to vote to remain in the European Union outside 10 Downing Street in London(AP photo)

Highlights

1. David Cameron made a dramatic appeal to voters to back staying in the European Union2. Britons vote on Thursday on whether to quit the 28-nation bloc3. If Britain votes to leave, Cameron would face pressure to resign

LONDON: British Prime Minister David Cameron made a dramatic appeal to voters across the generation gap on Tuesday to backstaying in the European Uniontwo days before a cliff-hanger referendum that will shape the future of the West.

Britons vote on Thursday on whether to quit the 28-nation bloc amid warnings from world leaders, investors and companies that a decision to leave would diminish the
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/European-Union


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former imperial power's influence, unleash turmoil on markets and send shock waves through Europe and the wider Western world.

In a rare televised address outside his Downing Street office, Cameron hammered home his message thatleaving the EU would jeopardise Britain's economyand its national security, with fewer jobs, fewer allies and higher prices.

"Brits don't quit," he said, using the official backdrop to make a direct pitch to older voters considered more eurosceptic and more likely to vote.

"It will just be you in that polling booth. Just you, taking a decision that will affect your future, your children's future, your grandchildren's future."

The Conservative prime minister's last-minute intervention came as an opinion poll showed support for remaining in the EU shrinking. The Survation poll put the "In"camp just one percentage point ahead of the campaign for a so-called Brexit, well within the margin of error.

Opponents said the hastily arranged appearance suggested Cameron, who promised the referendum in 2013 under pressure from lawmakers in his Conservative Party, anthe "In" campaign were very worried about the outcome.

"Cameron is panicked, it's out of his hands now," Arron Banks, a multi-millionaire insurance tycoon who is funding one of the Leave campaigns, said on Twitter.

Raoul Ruparel, co-director of Open Europe, a think-tank, said Cameron wanted to project a solemn, statesmanlike image.

"Because it was called off the cuff it looks panicked, but all people will see from the news are the clips which show him looking very measured and relaxed," Ruparelsaid.

As each side sought to play its last trump cards, the pro-EU "Britain Stronger in Europe" campaign issued a final poster of a door leading into a dark void with the slogan"Leave and there's no going back."

If Britain votes to leave, Cameron would face pressure to resign, though he has said he will continue as leader.

Stars and markets

Former England soccer captain David Beckham, a hugely popular public figure, added his voice to Remain's list of celebrity supporters. "For our children and theirchildren we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone," he said.

Leave campaigners stepped up their relentless focus on what they call uncontrolled immigration, saying Cameron had been warned four years ago his goal of reducing nearrivals was impossible due to EU rules.

The anti-EU UK Independence Party issued a poster showing a traffic jam with the message "The school over-run" and saying nearly one in four of Britain's primaryschools were full or oversubscribed.

Already shaken by differences over migration and the future of the euro zone, the EU would lose its second-largest economy, one of its top two military powers and by faits richest financial centre.

George Soros, the billionaire who bet against the pound in 1992, wrote in the Guardian newspaper that a vote to leave would trigger a bigger, more disruptive devaluatiothan the fall on Black Wednesday, when market pressure forced sterling out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

In the latest warning of potential economic damage, two sources familiar with the company's thinking told Reuters that Britain's biggest carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover,estimates its annual profit could be cut by 1 billion pounds ($1.47 billion) by the end of the decade if Britain leaves the EU.

Speaking before the US Senate's Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said a Brexit would unleash a rush to safety that would push up the dollar andsafe-haven currencies.

Sterling, which climbed to a 5 1/2-month high earlier on Tuesday on opinion polls suggesting the mood of the public was swinging behind the "In" camp, fell back aftermore polls and surveys showed the vote was on a knife-edge.

Polls and odds

An earlier ORB survey for the Daily Telegraph put support for Remain at 53 per cent, up 5 percentage points on the previous one, with support for Leave on 46 per cent,down three points.

"All the signs of ORB's latest and final poll point to a referendum that will truly come down to the wire," said Lynton Crosby, a political strategist who advised the rulingConservative Party at the last national election in 2015.

Campaigning was suspended for three days after the murder of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox, who was shot and stabbed to death in her constituency in northern England lasThursday.

Some Leave campaigners accuse the Remain camp of exploiting her death as part of what they portray as a campaign of scaremongering by the establishment at homeand abroad.

Turnout is likely to be key to the result, and the ORB poll found that Remain supporters, who had been regarded as being more apathetic, were increasingly motivated tovote.

After Cox's murder, polls indicated sentiment had swung back to the "In" campaign after a major shift towards Leave.

According to Betfair betting odds, the implied probability of a British vote to remain in the EU is 76 per cent, but analysts in the financial markets were more cautious.

"We will go into the vote without high confidence in predicting the outturn in either direction," JPMorgan researcher Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients.

The "Out" campaign says it is the anti-establishment choice, and its message that EU membership has handed political control to Brussels and fuelled mass immigrationappears to have struck a chord with many Britons.

While Remain can count on well-known faces from sport and entertainment for backing, the Leave camp has outstripped its rival in terms of donations. The campaigns


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for Britain to quit the EU received 16 million pounds ($23.5 million) in donations between Feb. 1 and June 9, while "In" campaigns received 12 million pounds.

RELATED STORIES

'I am not stupid,' Trump tells David CameronSensex rebounds 241 points on FDI norms, easing Brexit fearsBrexit: India need not be alarmed, experts opineCameron makes anti-Brexit Downing Street doorstep plea

'In' camp , according to opinion polls.

According to a TNS poll published on Wednesday, the day before the country's EU membership referendum, the 'Leave' camp has two-point lead over the rival "In" campBut, this is down from a seven-point lead last week,

TNS, a market research firm, said 43 per cent of respondents would vote to leave, while 41 per cent would vote to remain. Sixteen per cent were undecided or didn'tintend to vote.

The poll was conducted online and interviewed 2,320 adults between June 16 and 22.

"It should be noted that in the Scottish Independence Referendum and the 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum there was a late swing to the status quo and it ispossible that the same will happen here," Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK said in a statement.

"Clearly, with a race as close as this, the turnout level among different demographic groups will be critical in determining the result."

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A TNS poll published on June 14 found 47 per cent of likely voters would opt to leave the EU ahead of 40 per cent who wanted to stay.

Earlier on Wednesday, a poll by another research firm, Opinium, gave the "Out" camp a one-point leave over "In," causing sterling to fall against the dollar and the euro .

Top Comment

Even if the LEAVE campaign emerge as winners, The House of Lords has the right to over rule the vote. Of course, if the REMAIN lobby wins, its unlikely to doanything. STAY in the EU is my choice, wh... Read Morecaesar.appleton

See All Comments Add Comment

The Opinium survey of around 3,000 people, conducted between June 20 and 22, put support for "Leave" at 45 per cent and "Remain" at 44 per cent.

Opinium's previous poll, published on Saturday, had put the two camps level at 44 percent each, based on polling between June 14 and 17.

Stay updated on the go with Times of India NewsApp. Click hereto download it for your device.

RELATED

Queen unveils UK government's new agenda ahead of EU referendumLabour ramps up EU referendum campaign as stocks dropBritain's economy slows to near-stall speed before EU referendumEU referendum: Britain enters final day of campaigningUK 'Remain' camp's lead narrows before EU referendum: OpiniumEnglish farmer races pigs to predict EU referendum voteUK MP shot dead, EU referendum campaigns suspended

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Even if the LEAVE campaign emerge as winners, The House of Lords has the right to over rule the vote. Of course, if the REMAIN lobby wins, its unlikely to doanything. STAY in the EU is my choice, which I will be voting for tomorrow

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a road towards disaster of self destruction

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Sack Arvind Subramanian, says Subramanian Swamy, days after Rajan announces exit

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13/15



Ahead of NSG's Seoul talks, PM Modi to meet Xi Jinping in Tashkent

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