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Studije mira, FPN, 5. mart 2015.
Mapiranje
savremenih sukoba i troškovi naoružanja
Nemanja Džuverović
Oružani sukobi
Mir – sukob – nasilje Definicija oružanih sukoba
Vrste sukoba (po akterima, uzrocima i teritoriji) Novi ratovi
Trendovi u sukobima Broj sukoba po akterima
Sukobi po vrsti nekompatibilnosti Distribucija oružanih sukoba po regionima
Zone rata i mira Žrtve sukoba
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima Troškovi naoružanja Izdavanja za naoružanje
Porast troškova za naoružanje Izvoz i uvoz naoružanja
Oružani sukobi
Svet u 2011
!"#$%&'()#&*$")'+("&(,-.,(#&(&/'"#&/$($%!%$
!"#$"%&$'(#)"*$#+'&*)!"*,&-&-"!"'&.&)(/"01,!"01,
Mir – nasilje – sukob
MIR � nega3van-‐pozi3van � trajni (samoodrživ) -‐ privremeni � kazneni -‐ velikodušni NASILJE � direktno (fizičko nasilje) � strukturalno (eksploatacija, represija, dominacija, siromaštvo) � kulturno (simboličko opravdanje direktnog i strukturalnog nasilja) SUKOB � simetrični -‐ asimetrični � latentni -‐ manifestni � oni o kojima se može/ne može pregovara3
Definicije oružanih sukoba
Oružani sukob između dve države koji uključuje angažovanje vojnih snaga na obe strane i najmanje 1000 poginulih kao posledica vojnih aktivnosti.
(Singer i Smol 1972) Oružani sukob kao posledica nekompatibilnosti koja se tiče teritorije ili vlasti, gde su angažovane dve strane pri čemu je jedna od njih obavezno država i gde je krajnji ishod najmanje 25 poginulih kao posledica vojnih aktivnosti
(Valerstin i Solenberg 2001)
Vrste sukoba (po akterima)
Tradicionalna podela
I. Međunarodni sukobi A. Sukobi između država B. Ekstra-‐sistemski sukobi 1. kolonijalni 2. imperijalni
II. Civilni ratovi (Sarkes 2010)
Proširena (nova) 2pologija I. Sukobi između država II. Ekstra sistemski sukobi
A. Sukob sa kolonijom B. Imperijalni sukob (država vs nedržavni en3tet)
III. Sukobi unutar država A. Civilni sukobi 1. kontrola centralne vlas3 2. nekomp. lokalnog karaktera B. Regionalno-‐unutrašnji sukobi C. Inter (među) komunalni
IV. Nedržavni sukobi
A. Na nedržavnoj teritoriji B. Između državnih granica
Vrste sukoba (po uzrocima)
I. Revolucionarno-‐ideološki sukobi A. kapitalizam -‐ socijalizam (Nikaragva, Nepal) B. diktatura -‐ demokra3ja (Libija) C. sekularska -‐ islamska država (Iran, Avganistan)
II. Sukobi oko iden2teta ili teritorije A. pristup centralnoj vlas3 (Sirija, Mali) B. autonomija (Sudan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan) C. secesija (Nigerija, Indonezija)
III. Frakcionalni sukobi A. poli3čka moć (Liberija, Sijera Leone) B. ekonomski resursi (DR Kongo) (Ramsbotham et al. 2011)
Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 1
� Totalni ratovi (čitavo društvo u ratu; rat pro3v čitavog društva)
� Prvi svetski rat (rat hemičara) � 32 države i 20 miliona žrtava � nova oružja (tenkovi, podmornice…) � opšta regrutacija, kontrola nad medijima i naukom � opšte uništavanje prirodnih spomenika
� Drugi svetski rat (rat fizičara) � 60 miliona žrtava � strateško bombardovanje gradova (Drezden, Tokio, Roterdam…) � koncetracioni logori � nuklearna bomba, pobeda čoveka nad prirodom � upotreba nauke u vojne svrhe � propaganda
Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 2 � Hladni rat
� sukob dva bloka bez direktne konfrontacije, proxy wars � stalna priprema za rat � trka u naoružanju, naročito nuklearnom � strah od spoljnjeg neprijatelja, blokovski iden3tet � težnja za globalnim primatom � psihološke posledice od nuklearne pretnje, strah od nestanka.
� Ograničeni/pravedni ratovi � ograničeni za države koje ne učestvuju (Korejsko poluostrvo) � vladaju određena pravila (jus ad bellum i jus in bello) � savremeni kontekst
� pravedan razlog (samoodbrana) � odluku o ratu donosi nadležno telo (SB) � nasilje se koris3 kao poslednje sredstvo � rat ne proizvodi veće zlo � responsibility to protect -‐ R2P
Novi ratovi - 1
� Postmoderni rat � mašine zamenjuju vojnike � ubijanje sa distance, nema borbe prsa u prsa � veća ubojitost, brzina, preciznost, oružja � Informacija kao ključni vojni resurs/stratosfera postaje četvr3 front � manipulacija medijama (CNN, Fox)
� Rat pro2v globalnog terorizma � akteri nisu vezani za državu i određenu teritoriju � organizovani su u globalnu mrežu � upotreba najsavremenijeg oružja � polaganje sopstvenih života � ćelije spavači � intervencije u Avganistanu i Iraku � trajni rat?
Novi ratovi - 2
� Ratovi treće vrste -‐ Kalevi HolsO, Meri Kaldor � novac i resursi kao mo3v � nove, tribalne, ideologije � mobilizacija pomoću straha, religije i korupcije � deca vojnici, plaćenici � podrška mafije, dijaspore i regionalnih sila � nova ratna ekonomija � greed and grievence
� Kapilarni rat -‐ Hans Magnus Encesberger � bez ideologije ili programa � spontani unutrašnji sukobi bandi, nacista huligana i sl. � prazna agresija bez pravila � život gubi vrednost
Trendovi u sukobima
Broj konflikata po vrsti aktera, 1946-2010
Trendovi: unutrašnji vs međunarodni sukobi
Correlates of War
Sukobi po vrsti nekomatibilnosti, 1946-2010
(c) UCDP 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No
. of c
onfl
icts
Year
Armed Conflicts by Incompatibility, 1946 -2011
Government and Territory Territory Government
Broj oružanih sukoba po regionima, 1946-2010
(c) UCDP 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No
. of c
onfl
icts
Year
Armed Conflicts by Region, 1946-2011Europe Middle East Asia Africa Americas
Zone rata i mira
Bezbednosne zajednice � jake države � Severna Amerika, Zapadna Evropa
Zone mira
� stabilne države � Karipska ostrva, Okeanija, Istočna Evropa
Zone ne-‐rata
� nestabilne države � Jugoistočna i istočna Azija, Južna Amerika
Zone rata
� neuspele države � Afrika, bivši SSSR, Bliski Istok, Centralna Amerika, Južna Azija, Balkan
(HolsO 1996)
Žrtve sukoba
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1946-2005
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Battle-deaths
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1900-2005
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Battle-deaths
Bethany & Gleditsch
(Bethany & Gleditsch 2005)
Kineski građanski 1946–1949 1,200,000 Korejski rat 1950–1953 1,254,811 Vijetnam 1955–1975 2,097,705 Avganistan 1978–2002 562,995 Iran – Irak 1980–1988 644,500
Troškovi naoružanja
Izdavanja za naoružanje
Naoružanje u brojkama
� U 2013. nije došlo do povećanja troškova (pad od 2012) � Troškovi ukupno iznose 1747 milijardi dolara,
� 2.5% svetskog BDP � 250 dolara po osobi
� Smanjenje prvenstveno zbog ekonomske krize � najveći pad izdvajanja u severnoj Americi (3.9%) � najveći porast zabeležen u Africi (8.3%)
� U SAD zabeležen pad troškova za naoružanje � dos3gnut istorijski maksimum?
Izdavanja za naoružanje po zemljama
2 sipri fact sheet
THE TOP 15 MILITARY SPENDERS IN 2013
There was only one change in the list of countries comprising the world’s top 15 military spenders in 2013, with Canada dropping out, to be replaced by Turkey (see table 1). There were also several changes in order. Most notably, Saudi Arabia climbed from seventh to fourth place, having increased its military spending by 14 per cent in 2013. Among the lar gest spenders, Saudi Arabia has by far the highest mili-tary burden—that is, military spending as a share of GDP. At 9.3 per cent, it is also the second highest (after Oman) for any country for which SIPRI has recent data. Along with Saudi Arabia’s rise, the United Kingdom has fallen out of the top 5 spend-ers, although revised figures for 2011 and 2012 show that the UK had already fallen to sixth place then, probably for the first time since World War II.
Military spending by the USA declined by 7.8 per cent in real terms in 2013, to $640 billion. A part of the fall ($20 billion of the $44 billion nominal fall) can be attributed to the reduction in outlays for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO)— that is, overseas military oper ations, chiefly in Afghanistan and Iraq.
China’s spending increased by 7.4 per cent in real terms. While China has been behaving more asser-tively in recent years in territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, and with the Philippines and Viet Nam in the South China Sea, these height-ened tensions do not seem to have changed the trend in Chinese military spending, which represents a long-term policy of rising military spending in line with economic growth.
Russia’s spending increased by 4.8 per cent in real terms, and its military burden exceeded that of the USA for the first time since 2003. Russia’s spend-ing has risen as it continues to implement the State Armaments Plan for 2011–20, under which it plans to spend 20.7 trillion roubles ($705 billion) on new and upgraded armaments. The goal is to replace 70 per cent of equipment with ‘modern’ weapons by 2020.
While South Korea and Turkey also increased their spending, military spending fell in France, the
Table 1. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2013Spending figures are in US$, at current prices and exchange rates. Figures for changes are calculated from spending figures in constant (2012) prices.
Rank
CountrySpending, 2013 ($ b.)
Change, 2004–13 (%)
Spending as a share of GDP (%)a
2013 2012 2013 2004
1 1 USA 640 12 3.8 3.92 2 China [188] 170 [2.0] [2.1]3 3 Russia [87.8] 108 [4.1] [3.5]4 7 Saudi Arabia 67.0 118 9.3 8.15 4 France 61.2 -6.4 2.2 2.66 6 UK 57.9 -2.5 2.3 2.47 9 Germany 48.8 3.8 1.4 1.48 5 Japan 48.6 -0.2 1.0 1.09 8 India 47.4 45 2.5 2.8
10 12 South Korea 33.9 42 2.8 2.511 11 Italy 32.7 -26 1.6 2.012 10 Brazil 31.5 48 1.4 1.513 13 Australia 24.0 19 1.6 1.814 16 Turkey 19.1 13 2.3 2.815 15 UAEb [19.0] 85 4.7 4.7
Total top 15 1 408
World total 1 747 26 2.4 2.4
[ ] = SIPRI estimate.a The figures for military expenditure as a share of gross domestic product
(GDP) are based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, Oct. 2013.
b Data for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is for 2012, as figures for 2013 are not available.
N
ea
rly four-fif
ths of all military expenditure in 2013 was made by 15 states
USA, 37%
Others, 21%
UAE, 1.1%Turkey, 1.1%
Australia, 1.4%
Brazil, 1.8%
Italy, 1.9%
South Korea, 1.9%
India, 2.7%
Japan, 2.8%
Germany, 2.8%
UK, 3.3%France, 3.5%
Saudi Arabia, 3.8%
Russia, 5.0%China,11%
Just
2 s
tate
s m
ade
near
ly ha
lf of a
ll milita
ry expenditure
Figure 2. The share of world military expenditure of the 15 states with the highest expenditure in 2013
Izdavanja za naoružanje po regionima trends in world military expenditure, 2013 3
UK, Italy, Brazil, Australia and Canada, as well as the USA. Spending by Ger-many, Japan and India was essentially unchanged. For much of the 2000s, military spending increased fairly rapidly in Brazil and India (as it did in fellow ‘BRIC’ countries Russia and China). However, since 2009–10 these increases have stopped or gone slightly into reverse, as economic growth has weakened and spending on other sectors has taken priority.
REGIONAL TRENDS
While spending in North America and Western and Central Europe fell in 2013, it increased in all other regions (see figure 3). The largest increase was in Africa, by 8.3 per cent.
Western and Central Europe
In Western and Central Europe, a majority of countries continued to cut mil-itary spending as austerity policies were maintained in most of the region. The falls in the region since the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008 are no longer confined to Cen-tral Europe and the ‘crisis’ countries of Western Europe (see table 2). Falls of over 10 per cent in real terms since 2008 have now been recorded in Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK, as well as all countries in Central Europe except Poland. In contrast, Germany’s military spending was 2 per cent higher.
France, despite continuing weak economic growth, has largely maintained its military spending during the global economic crisis, and spending in 2013 was just 4 per cent lower than in 2008. This trend is likely to continue, follow-ing the adoption in 2013 of the Military Programming Law for the period 2014–19. The law sets the total defence budget, excluding military pensions, at €190 billion ($252 billion) over 6 years (at 2013 prices). The budgets for 2014–16 are planned to be €31.4 billion ($41.7 billion) each year in current prices, implying a slight fall in real terms. Long-term plans for the period to 2025 laid out in the April 2013 Defence and Secur ity White Paper suggest a subsequent stabilization in real terms.
Latin America
Military expenditure in Latin America increased by 2.2 per cent in real terms in 2013 and by 61 per cent between 2004 and 2013 (see table 3). In contrast to previous years, the rate of increase of military spending in South
Change in military expenditure (%)–8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Middle EastWestern and Central Europe
Eastern EuropeOceania
South East AsiaEast Asia
Central and South AsiaLatin America
North AmericaSub-Saharan Africa
North AfricaWorld
Figure 3. Changes in military expenditure, by region, 2012–13
Table 2. Military expenditure in Europe
Spending, 2013 ($ b.)
Change (%)
2012–13 2004–13
Europe 410 -0.7 7.6Eastern Europe 98.5 5.3 112Western and
Central Europe312 -2.4 -6.5
Major changes, 2012–13
Major increases % Major decreases %
Ukraine 16 Spain -13Belarus 15 Albania -13Latvia 9.3 Hungary -12Switzerland 9.0 Netherlands -8.3
Porast troškova naoružanja (2001-2010)
Udvostruceni porast troškova (2004-2013) 6
sipri fact sheet
Honduras $$$
Swaziland $$
Cambodia $$
Ghana $$$
Armenia $$Georgia $$$
Afghanistan $$$$$$
Paraguay $$
Namibia $$
Belarus $$
Bahrain $$
Ecuador $$
Kazakhstan $$$
Viet Nam $$
Azerbaijan $$$$$
Argentina $$
Angola $$
Iraq $$$ Oman $$Algeria $$
China $$
Russia $$
Saudi Arabia $$
Figure 4. The countries that doubled military spending between 2004 and 2013 Notes: $$ indicates that the country’s military spending doubled (or more), $$$ that it tripled (or more), $$$$ that it quad rup led (or more) and $$$$$ that it quintupled (or more), all in real terms. indicates that the country is a significant oil producer in relation to the size of its economy. In most cases, indicates that the country experienced (state-based) war or minor armed conflict or non-state conflict during the period 2004–13, as defined by the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia, <http://www.ucdp.uu.se/>. The exception is Armenia, where it refers to the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan over Ngorno-Karabakh.
Zbir godina tokom kojih su države aktivno učestvovale u oružanim sukobima 1946-‐2005. * Human Security
Report Project
Literatura
Kaldor, Mary (2007). New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. 3rd ed., Cambridge, UK: Polity Press (parts 3 & 4).
Ramsbotham, Oliver, Woodhouse, Tom and Miall, Hugh (2011). Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 3rd ed., Cambridge: Polity Press (pp.63-93)
Sarkees, Meredith Reid and Wayman, Frank Whelon, 2010. Resort to War: A Data Guide To Inter-State, Extra-State, Intra-State, And Non-State Wars, 1816–2007. Washington DC: CQ Press (pp.39-75).
SIPRI (2012). SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarment and International Security. Stockhol: SIPRI
Lotta Themner & Peter Wallensteen (2012). Armed Conflicts, 1946–2011. Journal of Peace Research 49 (4), 565–575.
Wallensteen, Peter (2012). Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and Global System, 3rd ed., London: Sage Publications (pp.13-28, 85-239).
Williams, D. Paul, 2008. War in Paul D. Williams, ed., Security Studies. New York: Routledge (pp.151-171).
Grafikoni i mape preuzeti sa sajtova:
www.miniatlasofhumansecurity.info
www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/graphs/charts_and_graphs.htm
www.prio.no
www.mondediplo.com
www.sipri.org
www.prio.no/upload/970/Monitoring%20trends%20in%20global%20combat%20EJP.pdf
www.heritage.org/Research/InternationalOrganizations/bg2006.cfm
