© OECD/IEA 2016

Electric mobility Status, policies and prospects

Clean Transport Forum - 22 September 2016, Bogotá Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA 2016

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The role of electric cars in sustainable transport

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Total GHG emissions – all sectors GHG emissions – transport

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Other transformation reduction

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22% 2DS

4DS

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2DS

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44%

Electric cars can make a major contribution, but are also needed: “avoid, shift, improve” electrified road freight and mass transport

© OECD/IEA 2016

The role of electric cars in sustainable transport Electric cars benefits

Main hurdles and challenges Upfront cost

Charging infrastructure and range anxiety

Need for policy action to lift up barriers, spur adoption and harvest the benefits of EVs.

Climate Health Energy security

Better energy efficiency than internal

combustion engines

Absence of tailpipe emissions

(CO2 and pollutants) (paramount in urban areas)

Low-carbon mode, provided that the

electricity mix is low-carbon

Reduction of oil dependency (+ potential for harvesting

local, renewable energy

sources)

© OECD/IEA 2016

The Electric Vehicles Initiative and IEA’s EV-related work

EVI: Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under CEM

Knowledge-sharing on policies and programs that support EV deployment

Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May

EVI data and analysis are at the basis of IEA’s WEO and ETP scenarios

© OECD/IEA 2016

550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%)

China became the first EV market in 2015

9/10 EVs sold in 8 countries (China, US, Netherlands, Norway, UK, Japan, Germany, France)

7 countries >1% market share (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China, UK)

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2015 marketshare

GEVO 2016: the electric car market in 2015

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV stock evolution, 2010-2015

1.26 million EVs in circulation by end of 2015

59% BEVs

4/5 EVs in 5 countries (US, China, Japan, Netherlands, Norway)

Other modes: 200 M e-2Wheelers, 173 k e-buses (mainly in China)

2015: 1 million EVs

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BEV

BEV + PHEV

© OECD/IEA 2016

RD&D: battery costs and energy density

PHEV battery costs:

-73% in the past 7 years

Ambitious announcements in the next future: -58% to go in the next 7 years

Wider model availability (Renault-Nissan, BMW, GM, Tesla (…) did not offer the same variety of EVs 5 years ago… )

Further improvements needed to enable longer ranges for lower costs,

addressing range anxiety and increasing EV competitiveness

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Battery cost (PHEV) 2022 DOE Battery cost target (PHEV)

2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV) 2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV)

Energy density (PHEV) 2022 DOE Energy density target (PHEV)

$268/kWh

295Wh/L

400Wh/L

$125/kWh

© OECD/IEA 2016

Purchase incentives and EV market shares, 2015

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PHEVs

BEVs

BEV market share

PHEV market share

Various policy mechanisms behind the “market pull” Differentiated taxation: CO2-based rebates, technology-based rebates,

feebates, VAT exemptions Waivers on charges, preferential treatment possible if differentiated

number plates are in place

Norway stands out in terms of incentives and EV adoption Difficult to come to conclusions for other markets (very early phase)

© OECD/IEA 2016

EV Supply Equipment

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Private chargers

Publicly available fastchargers

Publicly available slowchargers

Growth rate of publiclyavailable fast chargers

Growth rate of publiclyaccessible slow chargers

Growth rate of privatechargers

0.82 million

1.45 million

The deployment of publicly accessible chargers is positively correlated with the growth in EV sales

Need for charging network to overcome range anxiety barrier

Incentives are not just needed for vehicle purchase

© OECD/IEA 2016

Policy needs

A policy framework with high taxes on conventional fuels and stringent fuel economy standards is favorable for EVs

Purchase and circulation incentives and the availability of charging infrastructure are positively correlated with EV uptake

Need for fiscal measures (e.g. differentiated taxation, feebates) to kick start the market uptake

Need for mechanisms supporting the deployment of recharging infrastructure

Additional measures can further increase the value proposition of EVs

Examples: waivers on access restrictions (bus lanes) and urban/parking pricing schemes

Incentives can only be transitional Risk of tax revenue losses (incl. from fuel purchase). Need to adapt taxation

mechanisms.

Risk of congestion effects and detrimental effects to public transportation.

Need for close monitoring and periodical revisions to adapt to a fast evolving market

© OECD/IEA 2016

Illustration: a possibly sizeable contribution of EVs to fuel economy targets

GFEI targets

• 2030: fuel consumption per km of new LDVs 50% better than in 2005

IEA 2DS

• GFEI target needs ICE improvement, hybrids & EVs

• EVs (PHEV and BEVs): sizeable impact after 2020

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© OECD/IEA 2016

EV deployment targets

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Historical

IEA 2DS

Paris Declaration

EVI 2020 target

Cumulative countrytargets

1.26 million 13 million

20 million 100 million

140 million

Horizon 2050 (2DS): ● 450-550 million EVs ● 25% global car stock

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EV stock share

World

Latin America, IEA 2DS

© OECD/IEA 2016

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