Ekonomi Argentina

Argentina adalah sebuah negara yang kaya dengan sumber semula jadi, kadar literasi yang

tinggi, sektor pertanian yang maju sertaindustri yang pelbagai. Argentina kini dianggap sebagai

sebuah negara pendapat sederhana tinggi.

Malangnya, sejak akhir 1980-an negara ini telah menimbun hutang luaran yang

tinggi, inflasi sehingga 200% sebulan, dan pengeluaran yang merudum. Dalam mengatasi krisis

ekonomi tersebut, kerajaan telah mengambil langkah-langkah seperti   1. liberalisasi

perdagangan , 2. pembatalan kawal selia   dan   3. pengswastaan . Pada 1991, kerajaan telah

melaksanakan reformasi kewangan yang radikal dengan menambatkan peso kepada Dolar

Amerika Syarikat dan menghadkan pertumbuhan kewangan 'to monetary reserve' secara

undang-undang.

Walaupun pada mulanya ia berjaya dengan penurunan kadar inflasi dan pertumbuhan GDP

yang semakin pulih, krisis ekonomi yang melanda Mexico, Asia, Rusia dan Brazil pada 1999

telah mengeruhkan keadaan ekonomi negaranya.

Keadaan ekonominya semakin meruncing pada 2001 dengan "widening of spreads" pada Bon

Argentina, pengeluaran secara besar-besaran daripada bank serta kejatuhan keyakinan

pengguna dan para pelabur. Usaha kerajaan untuk mencapai defisit sifar, menstabilisasikan

sistem perbankan, dan mengekalkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak mampu membendung

masalah ekonomi yang semakin meningkat itu. Pada 21 Disember, Presiden De La Rua telah

disingkirkan akibat rusuhan rakyat kelas pertengahan dan Kongres melantik Eduardo

Duhalde sebagai ketua negara sementara. Duhalde kemudiannya bertemu dengan

pegawai IMF untuk mendapat pinjaman tambahan $20 bilion. Tambatan peso

kepada dolar telah digugurkan pada Januari 2002, dan peso telah diapung dari dolar pada

Februari yang mengakibatkan majoriti rakyatnya kehilangan kesemua simpanan hidup mereka

sewaktu kejatuhan ekonomi 2001 (pada 2002 KDNK adalah negatif 11%, inflasi mencecah 41%

dan lebih 37% penduduknya hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan).

Pada 23 Disember, 2001, presiden sementara Adolfo Rodriguez Saa telah mengisytiharkan

suatu moratorium hutang atau debt moratorium di Argentina.

Menurut pakar agronomi Alberto Lapolla, yang telah banyak menulis tentang transformasi

Argentina daripada sebuah negara bijian kepada "republik soya," 450,000 rakyatnya mati

kebuluran di antara 1990 dan 2003. Berdasarkan kajian Institut d'études sur l'État et la

participation (IDEP), beliau menambah bahawa setiap hari 55 kanak-kanak, 35 dewasa dan 15

warga tua di negara ini mati akibat penyakit yang berkaitan dengan kebuluran.

Namun demikian pada Januari   2004 , keadaan ekonomi telah menunjukkan tanda-tanda

pemulihan disebabkan pertumbuhan dalaman yang memberangsangkan pada tahun 2003 .

Pembaikpulihan ekonomi negara dijangka berterusan untuk beberapa tahun yang akan datang

dengan kadar pertumbuhan dalaman yang konstan. Walaupun begitu, sewaktu perjumpaan

tahunan yang dihadiri ahli Tabung Kewangan Antarabangsa (IMF)/Bank Dunia, ketua-ketua

IMF, Kesatuan Eropah, Kumpulan Tujuh negara industri danInstitut Kewangan

Antarabangsa (IIF) yang diadakan pada 1-2 Oktober, Presiden Néstor Kirchner telah diberi

amaran untuk segera menstrukturkan semula hutang negara, menambah belanjawan

lebihannya untuk membayar lebih banyak hutangnya serta mengenakan reformasi struktur

untuk membuktikan kepada komuniti kewangan sedunia bahawa Argentina layak menerima

pinjaman serta pelaburan daripada mereka.

Economic crisis

Argentina fell into a deep recession in the second half of 1998, triggered and then compounded by a

series of adverse external shocks, which included low prices for agricultural commodities,[121] the

appreciation of the US dollar, to which the peso was pegged at par,[121] the 1998 Russian financial

crisis, the LTCM crisis and the devaluation of the Brazilian real in January 1999.[122] Argentina did not

enjoy a rapid recovery, and the sluggishness of GDP growth fuelled concerns about the

sustainability of public debt.[122]

In December 1999 Fernando de la Rúa was inaugurated President, seeking assistance from the IMF

shortly thereafter.[123] In March 2000, the IMF agreed to a three-year $7.2 billion stand-by

arrangement with Argentina, conditioned on a strict fiscal adjustment and the assumption of 3.5%

GDP growth in 2000 (actual growth was 0.5%).[123] In late 2000, Argentina began to experience

severely diminished access to capital markets, as reflected in a sharp and sustained rise

in spreads on Argentine bonds over U.S. Treasuries.[122] In December, The de la Rua government

announced a $40 billion multilateral assistance package organized by IMF.[123] The uneven

implementation of fiscal adjustments and reforms, a worsening global macroeconomic environment,

and political instability led to the complete loss of market access and intensified capital flight by the

second quarter of 2001.[122] Argentine debt, held mostly in bonds, was massively sold short and the

government found itself unable to borrow or meet debt payments.[124]

In December 2001, a series of deposit runs began to have a severe impact on the health of the

banking system, leading the Argentine authorities to impose a partial deposit freeze.[122] With

Argentina no longer in compliance with the conditions of the expanded IMF-supported program, the

IMF decided to suspend disbursements.[122] At the end of December, in a climate of severe political

and social unrest, the country partially defaulted on its international obligations; in January 2002, it

formally abandoned the convertibility regime.[122]

The ensuing economic and political crisis was arguably the worst since the country's independence.[71] By the end of 2002, the economy had contracted by 20% since 1998.[122] Over the course of two

years, output fell by more than 15%, the Argentine peso lost three-quarters of its value, and

registered unemployment exceeded 25%.[71] Income poverty in Argentina grew from an already high

35.4% in October 2001 to a peak of 54.3% in October 2002.[125]

Critics of the policy of economic liberalization pursued during the Menem Presidency argued that

Argentina's economic woes were caused by neoliberalism, which had been actively promoted by the

U.S. government and the IMF under the Washington Consensus.[71] Others have stressed that the

main shortcoming of economic policy-making during the 1990s was that economic reform was not

pursued with enough determination.[71] A 2004 report by the IMF's Independent Evaluation

Office criticised the IMF's conduct prior to Argentina's economic collapse of 2001, saying the IMF

had supported the country's fixed exchange rate for too long, and was too lenient towards fiscal

deficits.[126][127]

Return to growth

In January 2002 Eduardo Duhalde was appointed president, becoming Argentina's fifth president in

two weeks.[129] Roberto Lavagna, who became Minister of the Economy in April 2002, was credited

for the ensuing recovery of the economy, having stabilised prices and the exchange rate in a

moment when Argentina was at risk of hyperinflation.[130] Since the default in 2001, growth has

resumed, with the Argentine economy growing by over 6% a year for seven of the eight years to

2011.[131] This was achieved in part because of a commodity price boom, and also because the

government managed to keep the value of the currency low, boosting industrial exports.[131]

Kirchner administrationSee also: Presidency of Néstor Kirchner

Néstor Kirchner became president in May 2003. In the mid-2000s, export of

unprocessed soybeans and of soybean oil and meal generated more than 20% of Argentina's export

revenue, triple the joint share of the traditional exports, beef and wheat.[128] Export taxes comprised

8% to 11% of the Kirchner government's total tax receipts, around two-thirds of which came from soy

exports.[132] Taxes on imports and exports increased government spending from 14% to 25% of GDP.[131] However, the import and export taxes have discouraged foreign investment, while high spending

has pushed inflation over 20%.[131]

An attempt by the Kirchner administration to impose price controls in 2005 failed as the items most

in demand went out of stock and the mandatory prices were in most cases not observed.[133] Various

sectors of the economy were re-nationalised, including the national postal service (2003), the San

Martín Railway line (2004), the water utility serving theProvince of Buenos Aires (2006)[134] and Aerolíneas Argentinas (2009).[135]

In December 2005, Kirchner decided to liquidate the Argentine debt to the IMF in a single payment,

without refinancing, for a total of $9.8 billion.[136] The payment was partly financed by Venezuela, who

bought Argentine bonds for US$1.6 billion.[136] As of mid-2008 Venezuela hold an estimated US$6

billion in Argentine debt.[137] In 2006, Argentina re-entered international debt markets selling US$500

million of its Bonar V five-year dollar denominated bonds, with a yield of 8.36%, mostly to foreign

banks and Moody's boosted Argentina's debt rating to B from B-.[138]

In early 2007 the administration began interfering with inflation estimates.[139]

Fernandez administration

In December 2007 Fernández de Kirchner became president. In 2008 the rural

sector mobilized against a resolution that would have increased the export tax rate on soybean

exports from 35% to 44.1%.[141] Ultimately, the new taxation regime was abandoned.[141] Official

Argentine statistics are believed to have significantly underreported inflation since 2007, and

independent economists publishing their own estimates of Argentine inflation have been threatened

with fines and prosecution.[142]

In October 2008 President Fernández de Kirchner nationalised private pension funds for almost $30

billion, ostensibly to protect the pensions from falling stock prices around the world, although critics

said the government simply wanted to add the money to its budget.[143]Private pension funds, which

were first licensed in 1994, suffered large losses during the 1998–2002 crisis and by 2008, the state

subsidized 77% of the funds' beneficiaries.[144]

The late-2000s recession hit the country in 2009 with GDP growth slowing to 0.8%.[145] High GDP

growth resumed in 2010, and the economy expanded by 8.5%.[146] In April 2010, Economy

Minister Amado Boudou prepared a debt swap package for the holders of over US$18 billion in

bonds who did not participate in the 2005 Argentine debt restructuring.[147][148] In late 2010, the largest

new natural gasdeposits in 35 years were discovered in Neuquén Province.[149] The unemployment

rate in the third quarter of 2011 was 7.3%.[150]

In November 2011, the government laid a plan to cut utilities subsidies to higher income households.[151] By mid-2011, credit was outpacing GDP by a wide margin, raising concerns that the economy

was overheating.[152] Argentina began a period of fiscal austerity in 2012.[153][154] In April 2012, the

government announced plans to expropriate YPF, despite the opposition of energy experts.[155]

Rising inflation and capital flight caused a rapid depletion of the country's dollar reserves, prompting

the government to severely curtail access to dollars in June 2012.[156] The imposition of capital

controls, in turn, led to the emergence of a black market for dollars, known as the "dólar blue", at

higher rates than the official exchange rate.[157]

By May 2014, private forecasts estimated annual inflation at 39.9%, one of the highest rates in the

world.[158] In July 2014, a ruling from a New York court ordered the country to pay the remaining

holders of the bonds defaulted in 2001, which by then were mostly American distressed securities

funds, before it paid any of its exchange bondholders. The Argentine government refused, causing

the country to default on its debt again.[159]

Causes of progressive decline

The unique condition of Argentina, as a country which had achieved advanced development in the

early 20th century but experienced a reversal, has inspired a wealth of literature and analyses on the

causes of this progressive decline.[1] The Nobel prize-winning economistSimon Kuznets is said to

have remarked that there were four types of countries: the developed, the underdeveloped, Japan

and Argentina.[160]

According to Di Tella and Zymelman (1967), the main difference between Argentina and other settler

societies such as Australia and Canada was its failure to seek adequate alternatives to compensate

for the end of geographical expansion with the definitive closing of the frontier.[161] Solberg (1985)

noted the differences between the land distribution in Canada, which led to a rising number of small

farmers, and the small number of landowners each with large areas of land in Argentina. [161]

Duncan and Fogarty (1984) argued that the key difference lies in the contrast between the stable,

flexible government of Australia and the poor governance of Argentina.[161] According to Platt and Di

Tella (1985) the political tradition and immigration from different regions were the key factors,

while Díaz Alejandro (1985) suggested that a restrictive immigration policy, similar to Australia’s,

would have increased productivity encouraged by the relative scarcity of labour.[161]

More recently, Taylor (1992) pointed that the relatively high dependency ratio and the

slow demographic transition in Argentina led to a reliance on foreign capital to offset the resulting

low savings rate.[161] From the 1930s onwards, the accumulation of capital was hampered by the

relatively high prices of (mostly imported) capital goods, which was caused by the industrial policy of

import substitution, in contrast with the export-led growth favoured by Canada.[161] Other distorting

factors behind the high relative prices of capital goods include the multiple exchange rates, the black

market for foreign currencies, the depreciation of the national currency and high customs tariffs.[161] This resulted in a lower capital intensity, which led to lower rates of labour productivity.[161]

The ultimate cause of Argentina’s historical backwardness appears to be its institutional framework.[161] In macroeconomic terms, Argentina was one of the most stable and conservative countries until

the Great Depression, after which it turned into one of the most unstable.[6]