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    T he n e w e n g l a n d j o u r n a l o f medicine

    n engl j med 370;3 nejm.org january 16, 2014 233

    original article

    Body-Mass Index and Mortality among

    Adults with Incident Type 2 DiabetesDeirdre K. Tobias, Sc.D., An Pan, Ph.D., Chandra L. Jackson, Ph.D.,

    Eilis J. OReilly, Sc.D., Eric L. Ding, Sc.D., Walter C. Willett, M.D., Dr.P.H.,JoAnn E. Manson, M.D., Dr.P.H., and Frank B. Hu, M.D., Ph.D.

    From the Departments of Nutrition (D.K.T.,A.P., C.L.J., E.J.O., E.L.D., W.C.W., F.B.H.)

    and Epidemiology (W.C.W., J.E.M., F.B.H.),Harvard School of Public Health, and theChanning Division of Network Medicine(E.J.O., E.L.D., W.C.W., F.B.H.) and theDivision of Preventive Medicine (J.E.M.),Department of Medicine, Brigham andWomens Hospital and Harvard MedicalSchool all in Boston; and Saw SweeHock School of Public Health and YongLoo Lin School of Medicine, National Uni-versity of Singapore and National Uni-versity Health System, Singapore (A.P.).Address reprint requests to Dr. Tobias atthe Department of Nutrition, HarvardSchool of Public Health, 665 HuntingtonAve., Boston, MA 02115, or at dbanel@

    hsph.harvard.edu; or to Dr. Pan at the SawSwee Hock School of Public Health, Nation-al University of Singapore, 16 Medical Dr.,MD3, Singapore 117597, or at [email protected].

    Drs. Tobias and Pan contributed equallyto this article.

    This article was updated on April 3, 2014,at NEJM.org.

    N Engl J Med 2014;370:233-44.DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1304501

    Copyright 2014 Massachusetts Medical Society.

    A B S T RA C T

    Background

    The relation between body weight and mortality among persons with type 2diabetes remains unresolved, with some studies suggesting decreased mortalityamong overweight or obese persons as compared with normal-weight persons(an obesity paradox).

    Methods

    We studied participants with incident diabetes from the Nurses Health Study(8970 participants) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (2457 participants)who were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer at the t ime of a diagnosis ofdiabetes. Body weight shortly before diagnosis and height were used to calculatethe body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of theheight in meters). Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratiosand 95% confidence intervals for mortality across BMI categories.

    Results

    There were 3083 deaths during a mean period of 15.8 years of follow-up. A J-shapedassociation was observed across BMI categories (18.5 to 22.4, 22.5 to 24.9 [reference],25.0 to 27.4, 27.5 to 29.9, 30.0 to 34.9, and 35.0) for all-cause mortality (hazardratio, 1.29 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.05 to 1.59]; 1.00; 1.12 [95% CI, 0.98 to1.29]; 1.09 [95% CI, 0.94 to 1.26]; 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.42]; and 1.33 [95% CI,1.14 to 1.55], respectively). This relationship was linear among participants who hadnever smoked (hazard ratios across BMI categories: 1.12, 1.00, 1.16, 1.21, 1.36,and 1.56, respectively) but was nonlinear among part icipants who had ever smoked(hazard ratios across BMI categories: 1.32, 1.00, 1.09, 1.04, 1.14, and 1.21) (P = 0.04for interaction). A direct linear trend was observed among participants younger

    than 65 years of age at the time of a diabetes diagnosis but not among those65 years of age or older at the time of diagnosis (P

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    Excess adiposity is a well-established

    risk factor for premature death in thegeneral population, including death due

    to cardiovascular disease or cancer.1-4However,a so-called obesity paradox (i.e., an associationbetween obesity, as compared with normalweight, and reduced mortality) has been reported

    among patients with heart failure, end-stage renaldisease, or hypertension, and, recently, amongthose with type 2 diabetes.5-12 Most of thesestudies, however, have been limited by small sam-ples and suboptimal control for smoking statusand preexisting chronic conditions.

    Smoking is a concern in analyses of bodyweight and mortality because it is associatedwith decreased body weight but an increasedrisk of death.13Statistical adjustment for smok-ing status (e.g., ever smoked vs. never smoked)is often insufficient to control for varying de-

    grees of smoking duration and intensity. Thus,stratification according to smoking status canbe an important way to examine the associationbetween body weight and the risk of death; inaddition, the subgroup analysis among personswho have never smoked can reduce residual biasrelated to smoking.3,4,13-15An additional concernis reverse causation, whereby underlying chronicdisease or frailty both causes weight loss and ele-vates the risk of death. Exclusion of persons withknown illnesses at baseline and censoring of datafor patients who died early in the follow-up periodare routinely performed to reduce this bias.16

    To address the limitations of previous analy-ses, we conducted a detailed analysis of the as-sociation between body-mass index (BMI) andthe risk of death among participants with inci-dent diabetes from two large prospective cohortstudies, the Nurses Health Study (NHS) and theHealth Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS).

    Methods

    Study Population

    The NHS was initiated in 1976 with the enroll-

    ment of 121,700 female nurses 30 to 55 years of age.

    The HPFS began in 1986, enrolling 51,529 male

    health professionals between 40 and 75 years of

    age. Questionnaires are administered biennially to

    update medical, lifestyle, and other health-related

    information.17,18 Cumulative follow-up exceeds

    90% of potential person-time for both cohorts.

    Our analyses included women and men report-

    ing incident diabetes between baseline (1976 forthe NHS and 1986 for the HPFS) and January 1,2010 (Fig. S1 in the Supplementary Appendix, avail-able with the full text of this article at NEJM.org).We excluded participants reporting a history of dia-betes at baseline or reporting cardiovascular dis-ease (stroke, coronary heart disease, or coronary-

    artery bypass graft surgery) or cancer before adiabetes diagnosis. Participants were excluded ifthey were underweight (BMI [the weight in kilo-grams divided by the square of height in meters]

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    analysis assessed the potential effect of error in

    self-reported weight and height with the use of

    the sex-specific calibration equations proposed

    by Berrington de Gonzalez et al.3from the U.S.

    National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey

    sample (BMImeasured= 0.63 + [1.01 BMIself-reported] +

    [0.0006 age in years] for women and 0.29 +

    [0.98 BMIself-reported] + [0.012 age in years] for men).

    Ascertainment of Deaths

    The primary outcome was death from any cause

    through January 1, 2012. Most deaths (>98%) were

    identified from reports by the next of kin or postal

    authorities or from searches of the National Death

    Index.24,25The cause of death was determined by

    physician review of medical records and death

    certificates. The diagnostic codes of the Interna-

    tional Classification of Diseases,8th Revision(ICD-8),

    were used to classify deaths as due to cardio-

    vascular disease (ICD-8 codes 390 through 459and 795), cancer (ICD-8 codes 140 through 207),

    or other causes.

    Assessment of Covariables

    Detailed information on cigarette smoking, physi-

    cal activity, menopausal status (for NHS partici-

    pants only), and several lifestyle factors and health

    outcomes were updated every 2 years. Marital

    status and status with respect to a family history

    of diabetes were assessed periodically. Dietary

    information was collected from validated food-

    frequency questionnaires approximately every

    4 years. Diet quality was assessed with the use

    of the 2010 Alternate Healthy Eating Index

    (with scores ranging from 2.5 to 87.5 and higher

    scores indicating a healthier diet).26The covari-

    ables were derived from the most recent ques-

    tionnaire before a diabetes diagnosis.

    Statistical Analysis

    Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were

    estimated from Cox proportional-hazards models,

    with number of months since a diabetes diagno-sis as the time scale. Person-time was calculated

    from the date of a diabetes diagnosis until death

    or the end of follow-up (January 1, 2012). BMI

    categories were defined as follows: 18.5 to 22.4,

    22.5 to 24.9 (reference), 25.0 to 27.4, 27.5 to 29.9,

    30.0 to 34.9, and 35.0 or higher. Multivariable

    models were adjusted for race or ethnic group

    (white, black, Asian American, Hispanic, or other),

    smoking status (never smoked; previously smoked;

    currently smokes 1 to 14, 15 to 24, or 25 cigarettes

    per day; or not reported), alcohol consumption

    (women: 0, 0.1 to 4.9, 5.0 to 14.9, or 15.0 g per day;

    men: 0, 0.1 to 4.9, 5.0 to 29.9, or 30.0 g per day),

    physical activity (

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    All-Cause Mortality

    A total of 3083 deaths from all causes were ob-

    served over a mean follow-up of 15.8 years, with

    a maximum follow-up of 36 years among women

    (mean, 16.2 years; 16.1 deaths per 1000 person-

    years) and 26 years among men (mean, 14.5 years;

    21.8 deaths per 1000 person-years). The mean

    (SD) age at death was 74.67.8 years for womenand 78.78.7 years for men. In general, crude

    rates of death were higher among participants

    who had ever smoked than among those who had

    never smoked, across BMI categories (Table 2).

    A J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality was observed among all the par-ticipants (Table 2) (P

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    the first 4 years of follow-up (a total of 227 par-ticipants: 78 who had never smoked and 149 whohad ever smoked) (Fig. 1B, 1D, and 1F, respectively)resulted in a monotonic positive association be-tween BMI and death among participants whohad never smoked, and the results did not differsubstantially from those of the primary analysis.

    Exclusion of participants with weight loss of morethan 1 BMI unit before a diabetes diagnosis,adjustment for baseline hypertension or hyper-cholesterolemia, and adjustment for year of dia-betes diagnosis produced similar results (data notshown). The tests for the proportional-hazardsassumption did not indicate a violation in eithercohort. Age-adjusted survival curves are depictedin Figures S2A through S2D in the Supplemen-tary Appendix.

    Using the traditional cutoff points for the BMIcategories of normal weight, overweight, and

    obesity (Table S2 in the Supplementary Appendix)and correcting errors in self-reported weight andheight (Table S3 in the Supplementary Appendix)did not significantly change the results.

    Cause-Specific Mortality

    We assessed the relationship between BMI just be-

    fore a diabetes diagnosis and deaths due to cardio-

    vascular disease (941 deaths), cancer (784 deaths),

    and other causes (e.g., respiratory diseases, re-

    nal disease, suicide, and accidents; 1358 deaths)

    (Fig. 2A, 2B, and 2C; and Table S4 in the Supple-

    mentary Appendix). There was a significant di-

    rect linear relationship between BMI and car-

    diovascular mortality among all participants

    (P

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    HazardRatio3.

    00

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    DeathfromCardiovascularCa

    uses

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    27

    The New England Journal of Medicine

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    n engl j med 370;3 nejm.org january 16, 2014 243

    nation across multiple BMI categories and keyanalyses to address potential biases. Prospec-tively measured body weight, documented justbefore or at the time of a diabetes diagnosis,prevents misclassification from weight changedue to early pharmacologic treatments or life-style changes shortly after diagnosis. Enroll-ment of health professionals has proved benefi-cial with respect to the reliability and validityof self-reported health-related exposures andoutcomes, and it reduces confounding by edu-cational and socioeconomic factors.

    Limitations of the study include the reliance

    on self-reported weight measures, although er-roneous reporting was shown to be very mini-mal in validation studies, and corrections oferrors in BMI measurement produced similarfindings. Information on weight was obtainedan average of 11 months before diagnosis as aproxy for the weight at diagnosis, but this is

    unlikely to have resulted in appreciable error.Finally, the relative homogeneity of the NHSand HPFS cohorts may limit the generalizabil-ity of our findings to other racial and ethnicgroups.

    In conclusion, our results indicate a J-shapedrelationship between BMI at the time of a dia-betes diagnosis and the risk of death from allcauses, with the lowest risk observed amongnormal-weight participants with a BMI of 22.5to 24.9. Among participants who had neversmoked, there was a direct linear relationship

    between BMI and mortality, whereas a nonlin-ear relationship was observed among thosewho had ever smoked. There was no evidenceof a protective effect of overweight or obesityon mortality. In addition, given the relationshipof overweight and obesity to other critical pub-lic health end points (e.g., cardiovascular dis-ease and cancer), the maintenance of a healthybody weight should remain the cornerstone ofdiabetes management, irrespective of smokingstatus. Further evidence is needed to corrobo-rate our findings in other populations.

    Supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health(UM1 CA167552, UM1 CA176726, P01 CA87969, R01 HL034594,P01 CA055075, DK58845, CA55075, CA87969, HL34594, P30DK46200, and 1U54CA155626-01) and the American DiabetesAssociation (7-12-MN-34).

    Disclosure forms provided by the authors are available withthe full text of this article at NEJM.org.

    We thank the participants in the Health Professionals Follow-upStudy and the Nurses Health Study for their continuing sup-port, as well as our colleagues working in these studies fortheir contributions.

    Figure 2 (facing page).Hazard Ratios for Cause-SpecificMortality among Participants with Incident Type 2

    Diabetes, According to BMI Shortly before Diagnosisof Type 2 Diabetes.

    The results from the two cohorts (NHS and Health Pro-

    fessionals Follow-up Study) were combined with the useof a fixed-effect meta-analysis. The numbers of person-

    years were 179,081 for all participants, 79,546 for thosewho had never smoked, and 97,762 for those who had

    ever smoked. Panel A shows cardiovascular mortality inthe total study population (941 deaths), among partici-

    pants who had never smoked (340 deaths), and amongthose who had ever smoked (592 deaths). Panel B shows

    cancer mortality in the total study population (784 deaths),among participants who had never smoked (266 deaths),

    and among those who had ever smoked (514 deaths).Panel G shows mortality from other causes in the total

    study population (1358 deaths), among participants

    who had never smoked (561 deaths), and among thosewho had ever smoked (786 deaths). All estimates have

    been adjusted for age, race, marital status, menopausalstatus (for the NHS cohort only), presence or absence of

    a family history of diabetes, smoking status (among allparticipants and those who had ever smoked), alcohol

    intake, and Alternate Healthy Eating Index score. A totalof 20 women and 79 men with missing data on smoking

    status were excluded from the stratified analyses (24 totaldeaths, including 9 from cardiovascular causes, 4 from

    cancer, and 11 from other causes). The bars represent

    95% confidence intervals.

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