Ocean variability to ecosystemlinks in the Northern California Current

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

PD

O

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Coho Salmon

YEAR1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Per

cent

Sur

viva

l

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PDO

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Am

omal

y of

N

o. o

f adu

lts (t

hous

ands

) re

turn

ing

to s

paw

n

Spring Chinook Salmonmean = 108,000

The PDO and salmon survival correlate

in the NCC

Slide: W.T. Peterson

Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies:

Hooff and Peterson 2006

-2

-1

0

1

2

CCI s

core

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996

PC1

of co

pepo

ds

CCI Timeseries

Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCIOrdination Axis 1 scores

-2

-1

0

1

2

CCI s

core

Warm Cold Warm Cold

Monthly anomalies

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996

PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01

Calanus

Warm yearsCold years

Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:

Vancouver Island

Central Oregon

Central California

Southern California

Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:

Synchrony among North East Pacific time series(Mackas and Beaugrand 2010)

CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003)Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003)KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003

Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region

170 160 150 140 130 120 11025

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

170 160 150 140 130 120 11025

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65PDO - Cold Phase PDO - Warm Phase

Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change.

Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982

Basin-scale control of ecosystems?

E. Di LorenzoJ. KeisterA. ThomasPT StrubWT PetersonS. BogradP. FranksF. SchwingK. ChaakA. Bracco

International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)

The test of the transport hypothesisCompare modeled transport to zoop. observations

Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)• 10 km resolution• 30 vertical layers• boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas

climatology• nudged at open boundaries• forced by NCEP winds and SST• 1950-2008

Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales.

Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.

Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection:

Winter Spring Summer Fall

East

West

South

North

particle concentration

FromEAST

FromSOUTH

FromNORTH

FromWEST

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

-2-10123

-3-2-1012

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-10123

Model hindcast CCI =

NORTH tracer +

SOUTH tracer+

EAST tracer+

WEST tracer+ ε

Passive Tracer Time Series

Keister et al. 2011

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

R = 0.36

Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI

(5 year lowpass)

R = 0.95

Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

(5 yearlowpass)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

R = 0.9

Model hindcast CCIModel PDO

Keister et al. 2011

Advective control of zooplankton communities?

1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Data re-analysis

• Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions

• Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions

California Coast

Northern California Coast

Oregon Coast

Washington Coast

British Columbia Coast

Gulf of Alaska

1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Seed Latitude

Diap

ause

Em

erge

nce

Latit

ude

Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007

1. Diapause transport in the CCS

Seed Latitude

Diap

ause

Em

erge

nce

Latit

ude

Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007