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toki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学 - 土岐博    大阪大学名誉教授 原子核物理理論研究

「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象 …manabe/toki_cebe2019.pdftoki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学

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Page 1: 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象 …manabe/toki_cebe2019.pdftoki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学

toki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25

「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学 -

土岐博    大阪大学名誉教授 原子核物理理論研究

Page 2: 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象 …manabe/toki_cebe2019.pdftoki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学

科学者の社会的責任と科学者コミュニティー 広渡清吾2010年学術会議「日本の展望ー学術からの提言」 「学術のための学術」と「社会のための学術」を

不可分一体の本質的契機とする営みとして学術を捉える

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2011年9月「東日本大震災からの復興と日本学術会議 の責務(幹事会声明)」の中の政府に対しての提言

1。助言の内容が「多くの専門知に基礎ずけられる俯瞰的、 中立的検討を通じて総合的な知」として形成されるべき 2。政府の側が「科学者コミュニティーの自律的活動を保証 し、情報を開示し、助言を政策的判断の基礎として考慮す る」という立場をとること 3。学術会議の側もこのような学術的助言が「政策決定が 依拠しうる根拠の一つにとどまる」ものとして了解する

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具体的には1。低放射線の生物への影響2。人の健康(寿命)の理解(医療費削減)3。持続的なエネルギー(太陽、水、化石燃料、原子力。。)4。核廃棄物の低減と処理(現在は自然放射線の100分の1)5。地球の温度変化への人の営みからの寄与6。その他

社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学 それを「アセスメント科学」と呼ぶ:長我部提案(日立)Assessment science : 科学で答えを出す(上限:下限)

(Trans-science : 科学によっては答えられない課題)

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福島事故と甲状腺がん (低放射線の生物への影響)

1。瞬間的に強い放射線の効果は定量的にわかっている 2。年間100mSv以下の放射線の生物影響の定量化は難しい

3。どんな事故でも必ず低線量の問題が出てくる 4。福島から学ぶ必要がある

Many collaborators M. Bando, T. Wada, Y. Manabe, T. Higuchi, S. Hirota,

I. Tanihata, K. Satoh

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Earthquake 2011.3.11

No.1 and 3 hydrogen explosion 2011.3.12 and 14

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Saito, Tanihata et al.Radiations in soils and air dose

(2011.6.14)

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 139(2015) 308-319.

June 4~July 8 400 volunteers 1734 locations

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PBLS FSSPreliminary baseline survey

Full-scale survey

300,000 children

先行調査

本格調査本格調査2

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131I

K. Saito, I. Tanihata et al.J. Env. Radioactivity 139 (2015) 308

Total dose 131I

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Numbers of cancer case and air dose rate and 131I

T(131I)=8 days

Natural radiation dose = 2.4mSv/y

1y = 24⇥ 365h = 8760h<latexit sha1_base64="nhGlzwVTEllekYDwRi6XftI1C/E=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="Em4Q7qdb4XfpL1devyKW7CUwEek=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="Em4Q7qdb4XfpL1devyKW7CUwEek=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="U7J+wj5rxpAVxhWtgN2g5ZuRkKY=">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</latexit>

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PBLS cancer case

N = �3.58 x+ 45.01<latexit sha1_base64="wwcb9+7bmONv5Bt4+GUb2rYU5Ek=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="CzaL+XkfdsqaMAf4rrDGtJ1w900=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="CzaL+XkfdsqaMAf4rrDGtJ1w900=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="bSb1X2Hz95A0OEfTXRl/WEzf7aw=">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</latexit>

(�6.81, 1.50)<latexit sha1_base64="ciIF9If+1j5ce3N7NT8hiQpwudQ=">AAACcHichVHLSsNAFD2Nr1pfVTeCC2tLxWe4EXzgSnTjUlv7AC2SxFGDaRKTtFCLP+APuHCjgoj4GW78ARd+grhTwY0Lb9OCqKh3mJkzZ+65c2ZGc0zD84keQlJTc0trW7g90tHZ1d0T7e3LenbJ1UVGt03bzWuqJ0zDEhnf8E2Rd1yhFjVT5LT95dp+rixcz7Ctdb/iiEJR3bWMHUNXfaYKo1Oz8rwyGVPkGRrbiiZIpiBiP4HSAInF+ObEGYBVO3qFTWzDho4SihCw4DM2ocLjtgEFBIe5AqrMuYyMYF/gCBHWljhLcIbK7D6Pu7zaaLAWr2s1vUCt8ykmd5eVMSTpnq7phe7ohh7p/dda1aBGzUuFZ62uFc5Wz/FA+u1fVZFnH3ufqj89+9jBfODVYO9OwNRuodf15cOTl/RCKlkdoQt6Yv/n9EC3fAOr/KpfronUKSL8Acr35/4JstOyQrKyxj+xhHqEMYg4Rvm957CIFawiw+ce4ARnOA89SwPSkDRcT5VCDU0/voQ0/gFbhI3Y</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="yZw2QDSasPMHpZ1dW6/ZcfX794U=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="yZw2QDSasPMHpZ1dW6/ZcfX794U=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="U0LAka/WjNumLgBOLsum2NG4pc0=">AAACcHichVHLSsNAFD2N7/qquhFcWC0VFQ03gg9ciW5camttoRZJ4rQG0yQmaUGLP+APuHCjgoj4GW78ARd+grhTwY0Lb9OAqKh3mJkzZ+65c2ZGc0zD84keIlJTc0trW3tHtLOru6c31te/6dkVVxcZ3TZtN6epnjANS2R8wzdFznGFWtZMkdX2Vur72apwPcO2NvwDRxTKaskyioau+kwVxqfn5AVlKq7IszSxHUuQTEHEfwIlBAmEsWbHrrCFHdjQUUEZAhZ8xiZUeNzyUEBwmCugxpzLyAj2BY4QZW2FswRnqMzu8VjiVT5kLV7Xa3qBWudTTO4uK+NI0j1d0wvd0Q090vuvtWpBjbqXA561hlY4273Hg+m3f1Vlnn3sfqr+9OyjiIXAq8HenYCp30Jv6KuHJy/pxVSyNkYX9MT+z+mBbvkGVvVVv1wXqVNE+QOU78/9E2zOyArJyjollpbDr2jHEEYxzu89jyWsYg0ZPncfJzjDeeRZGpSGpZFGqhQJNQP4EtLkB4qajE8=</latexit>

Slightly decreasing tendency(Screening schedule effect?)

No/105<latexit sha1_base64="T5SiAxEZRBJOI6n2ontesNwK3Ww=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">AAACZ3ichVHLSsNAFD2NrxofrQoiuFFLxVW5EUQRxKIbl76qhVoliVMNpklI0oIWf8CF2wquVETEz3ChPyDSTxCXCm5ceJMWREW9w8ycOXPPnTMzmmMank9Ui0hNzS2tbdF2uaOzqzsW7+ld8+ySq4uMbpu2m9VUT5iGJTK+4Zsi67hCLWqmWNf25oP99bJwPcO2Vv19R+SL6o5lFAxd9QNKoc2JrXiCUhTG0E+gNEBi9k6ecS4e5UU7foUNbMOGjhKKELDgMzahwuOWgwKCw1weFeZcRka4L3AImbUlzhKcoTK7x+MOr3IN1uJ1UNML1TqfYnJ3WTmEJD3QNb3QPd3QE73/WqsS1gi87POs1bXC2YodDay8/asq8uxj91P1p2cfBUyFXg327oRMcAu9ri8fVF9WppeTlVE6p2f2f0Y1uuUbWOVX/XJJLJ9C5g9Qvj/3T7A2nlIopSxRIj2HekQxiBGM8XtPIo0FLCLD5+7iGFWcRJ6kmNQvDdRTpUhD04cvIQ1/AFMCjc8=</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="NRZQk4MIR51+TKpguelqrzXf5ZE=">AAACZ3ichVG7SgNBFD1ZXzE+EhUkYKMGxSrcFUSxEm0sTWJU8MXuOomD+2J3E9DgD1jYRrBSEBE/w8YfsPATxFLBxsK7mwVRUe8wM2fO3HPnzIzumtIPiB4TSlt7R2dXsjvV09vXn84MDK75Ts0zRNlwTMfb0DVfmNIW5UAGpthwPaFZuinW9YOlcH+9LjxfOvZqcOiKbUur2rIiDS0IKZV2ZnYzOcpTFKM/gRqDHOJYcTLX2MIeHBiowYKAjYCxCQ0+t02oILjMbaPBnMdIRvsCx0ixtsZZgjM0Zg94rPJqM2ZtXoc1/Uht8Ckmd4+Vo5igB7qhF7qnW3qi919rNaIaoZdDnvWWVri76ZNs6e1flcVzgP1P1Z+eA1QwF3mV7N2NmPAWRktfP2q+lOaLE41JuqRn9n9Bj3THN7Drr8ZVQRTPkeIPUL8/90+wNp1XKa8WKLewGH9FEiMYxxS/9ywWsIwVlPncfZyiibPEk5JWhpVsK1VJxJohfAll7ANeoYqO</latexit>

95%

Page 12: 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象 …manabe/toki_cebe2019.pdftoki@kyotoradiation 2019.05.25 「アセスメント科学」 - 社会が要請する課題を対象とする科学

FSS cancer incidence vs air dose rate75 out of 270,454 children

The tendency is positiveN = 5.05 x+ 26.54 (0.44, 11.61)

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95%

No/105<latexit sha1_base64="T5SiAxEZRBJOI6n2ontesNwK3Ww=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="NRZQk4MIR51+TKpguelqrzXf5ZE=">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</latexit>

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FSS: 131I vs cancer incidence

The slope is smaller than the case of air dose rate Intake of 131I may not be the main cause of cancer

N = 2.35 x+ 29.03 (�0.78, 7.27)<latexit sha1_base64="QzMPp3ux+TZGt1Je5/U4jtegJak=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="cABBN7rLIvU7uzDWn+pDh6TzvQM=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="cABBN7rLIvU7uzDWn+pDh6TzvQM=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="Yw6es3ECX2fr/iFBBe9Is0rklBY=">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</latexit>

No/105<latexit sha1_base64="T5SiAxEZRBJOI6n2ontesNwK3Ww=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="NRZQk4MIR51+TKpguelqrzXf5ZE=">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</latexit>

95%

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Poisson regression analysis (glm @ R)

We use all the data of 59 municipalities. We use the statistical mathematics method.

(Error bars are large.)

(Akaike Information criterion)

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FSSNo/105

<latexit sha1_base64="T5SiAxEZRBJOI6n2ontesNwK3Ww=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="stfHEMBvzikYfSPcHMoL/KTzxHU=">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</latexit><latexit sha1_base64="NRZQk4MIR51+TKpguelqrzXf5ZE=">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</latexit>

Iwaki10mGy

External dose (1y)

Air dose rate ̶> External dose

本格調査では甲状腺がんと判定された数は放射線量と比例 するように見える??ーーそのままに受け取って良いのか?

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Critical discussion 1. Why the high dose area follow the increasing

tendency? 2. No internal radiation (131I) 3. If external radiation, why the effect of 131I

is small? 4. Can the increase of the thyroid cancer cases

with air-dose related with the stress in life? 5. Can we quantify the stress, and relate with

the amount of radiation?

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Escape from the high dose area

Hayano, Adachi (2012) using GPS of mobile-phones

People within 20km have evacuated from the area People further than 30km remained in the area

Proc Jpn Acad, Ser B 89 (2013) 196-199.

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Fukushima

IwakiTotal

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Day

Day

1y

1y

2y

2y

External dose (March 15)30mGy

rate̶>dose

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ストレス大ストレス小

生活環境の変化で腫瘍の発生が変化する

Book of Sado (P.440)

マウスの年齢(日) 500 page (many data)

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人へのストレス

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2015年 ストレスの強さと地域性

放射線量が高い地域ほどストレスは高い

高 低

しかしどんなメカニズムでがんに関与するかは未明!!

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Conclusion and Discussion 1. In PBLS, the cancer cases do not increase

with the air dose rate 2. In FSS, the cancer cases increase with the

air dose rate 3. Why the high dose area follow the increasing

tendency? 4. Why the effect of 131I is small? 5. The increase of the thyroid cancer cases

may be related with the stress in life? 6. We should consider risks other than radiation

on equal footing

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タイトルへの結論 Assessment Science

1。社会のための学術(学術会議) 2。社会が要請する課題に取り組む(チャレンジ)

3。定量的にする(上限や下限を出す) 4。結果に対する原因は一つではない

5。分野を超えて真理のために葛藤(勉強)する 6。「多くの専門知に基礎ずけられる俯瞰的、 中立的検討を通じて総合的な知」(学術会議)