2
作成:小笠原 2016年総統選挙各候補得票率予想 2016.1.12 ケ暴三卜を盤賢し加一日‘2リ 投票率 ������有効票数 ���民進党の過去データと今回の予想 l 県市 �言、-東湖獄 �誉加増.′三・㌧三∴ �主知餉率 �2018予想 �-一頭ほから二三 �こ.麺雨樋掛‾■三㌔_ �凍壇縦・′、 ��20用予想 �∴_∴凄軌豆 �誉柳輝=一三、‾ �∵紳幽章 �誉サα、、、:_二 �滴泳厳・;二 � �・譲猷一二ノ;ユ0沌 琴畢車凍乳を 恥鍋SL?も目し 54塾、∫≠ウ9し一之カ .ぬ舶_qg.ヱ2-′・7㌔・ ぬ隠与川3日、? 嬉商工的-托・二ご吋 毀鶴首上之ユレ甘 簸纏■廿里-i叫 弼郡上箔やさしも./ 紘血∫2.ヱう、昌 . 二割紛獄 �_‾凍寒紅 �牒廃炉 �投票率 �鴻瀬恥- �牒痔廟粧■う �滴強暴 �緊 �有効票数 �一蕪葵喪≦ �一頒纏猷 �‾凍瀬敲 ��圭溝凍笑 圭台北諒、‾∴ �2175986 �76.78% �70.46% �73.0% �-3.8% �1588470 �的.40% ��1578956 �39.54% �- ・・凍瀬猷 �3204367 �75.90% �61.65% �71.0% �-4.9% �2275101 �99.35,i ��22602相 �43.46% �48.78 ‾・‾㌻壊隆市′ �306548 �72.09% �63.92% �6乱0% �-3.1% �211518 �!は.35% ��210145 �36.77% �53.15% こ‡、■‾鱒園譜_て: �1627598 �74.69% �62.73% �70.0% �-4.7% �1139319 �00.32% ��1131612 �39月5% �51.00 一二㌧新竹好さ �412731 �76.07% �68.76% �72.0% �-4.1% �297166 �99.26% ��294954 �30.93% �- 薄絢衝- �328580 �75.68% �62.90% �71.概 �-4.7% �233292 �約.31% ��231684 �39.49% �38.36% ‡早苗栗野浅 �棚520 �74.63% �72.80% �73.0% �-1.6% �327420 �約.20% ��324帥5 �33.18% �28.37% � 辛含串衝く �2138519 �75.76% �71.93% �72.0乳 �-3.8% �1539734 �約.35% ��1520711 �44.68% �57.06 二、満腹廉.・ �415122 �71.13% �73.11% �71.0% �-0.1% �294737 �99.26% ��292556 �42.37% �4飢04% 鴻継味一一三‾ �1022962 �73.46% �72.93% �73.0% �-0.5% �746762 �99.00% ��73的16 �46.49% �53.71% ∴垂林痕;_ �566207 �68.92% �74.09% �71.0% �2.1% �402007 �98.88% ��397502 �55.81% �56.98 -∴′′嘉強頼ジ、 �430885 �72.48% �74.19% �72.0% �-0.5% �310237 �争乱02% ��307210 �58.58% �63.0的 、、∴■凄義市_‾、■・ �210758 �73.53% �70.96% �71.0% �-2.5% �14粥38 �争乱36% ��148676 �51.04% �51.41% �56.0鍋 �5.00% �61.06% � �餌的針∴門口托-しん 銀水パル烏Lrり 薮着帯泰阜 �1528240 �74.18% �65.88% �72.0% �-2.2% �1100337 �約.27% ��1092257 �57.72% �72.90 …-_‡満雄帯、 �225心24 �75.91% �購.44% �73.0% �-2.9% �1645657 �99.34% ��1634833 �53.42% �68.09% 圭南東紅く �689170 �72.67% �73.53% �72.0% �」).7% �496202 �!相.08% ��491643 �55.13% �62.93% ′‾∴宜蘭県-ノミ′ �369211 �72.54% �70.4鍋 �71,0% �-1.5% �262140 �9臥06% ��259680 �52.53% �63.95% -∴′花塵県:、 �267862 �64.64% �61.77% �62.0% �-2.6% �166074 �9飢08% ��164546 �25.04% �- ■、∴一台東県■′ �179547 �61.79% �67.82% �82.0% �0.2% �111319 �99.08% ��110293 �30.50% �45. r■■遥湖県、′ �84222 �59.01% �66.27% �59.0% �0.0% �49691 �9さ.82% ��49103 �45.65% �55.34% �49.47% �5.00% �54.47% 豆褒啓県?.■- �111386 �46.67% �45.15% �45.0% �-1.7% �50124 �的.19% ��側71g �8.22% �- �6 ‾′連江県‥‥′、 �10240 �65.79% �67.05% �840% �-1.8% �6554 �争乱03% ��糾90 �8.03% �- �5. 総計 �187蛇的1 �74.38% �67.59% �71.胡% �-3.0% �13403497 �鍋.27% ��13305960 �45.63% 観覧 もらユ7 は解約¢2 11弼叩汐 ・∴・/ ・、、 一JLヱ、‥ 1/2

作成:小笠原 2016年総統選挙各候補得票率予想 ケ暴三卜を盤賢 ... · 2016. 1. 21. · 作成:小笠原 2016年総統選挙各候補得票率予想 2016.1.12

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  • 作成:小笠原 2016年総統選挙各候補得票率予想 2016.1.12

    ケ暴三卜を盤賢し加一日‘2リ

    投票率 ������有効票数 ���民進党の過去データと今回の予想  l

    県市 �言、-東湖獄 �誉加増.′三・㌧三∴ �主知餉率 �2018予想 �-一頭ほから二三 �こ.麺雨樋掛‾■三㌔_ �凍壇縦・′、 ��20用予想 �∴_∴凄軌豆 �誉柳輝=一三、‾ �∵紳幽章 �誉サα、、、:_二 �滴泳厳・;二 � �・譲猷一二ノ;ユ0沌 琴畢車凍乳を 恥鍋SL?も目し 54塾、∫≠ウ9し一之カ .ぬ舶_qg.ヱ2-′・7㌔・ ぬ隠与川3日、? 嬉商工的-托・二ご吋 毀鶴首上之ユレ甘 簸纏■廿里-i叫 弼郡上箔やさしも./ 紘血∫2.ヱう、昌 .琴7餌.∫b.阜ワ一・し∬ 線酢、らち・り叫仁丹 二割紛獄 �_‾凍寒紅 �牒廃炉 �投票率 �鴻瀬恥- �牒痔廟粧■う �滴強暴 �緊 �有効票数 �一蕪葵喪≦ �一頒纏猷 �‾凍瀬敲 ��圭溝凍笑

    圭台北諒、‾∴ �2175986 �76.78% �70.46% �73.0% �-3.8% �1588470 �的.40% ��1578956 �39.54% �- �43.47% �5.00% �48.47%

    ・・凍瀬猷 �3204367 �75.90% �61.65% �71.0% �-4.9% �2275101 �99.35,i ��22602相 �43.46% �48.78% �46.94% �5.00% �51.94%

    ‾・‾㌻壊隆市′ �306548 �72.09% �63.92% �6乱0% �-3.1% �211518 �!は.35% ��210145 �36.77% �53.15% �40.56% �5.00% �45.56%

    こ‡、■‾鱒園譜_て: �1627598 �74.69% �62.73% �70.0% �-4.7% �1139319 �00.32% ��1131612 �39月5% �51.00% �44.68% �5.00% �49.68%

    一二㌧新竹好さ �412731 �76.07% �68.76% �72.0% �-4.1% �297166 �99.26% ��294954 �30.93% �- �35.94% �5.00% �40.94%

    薄絢衝- �328580 �75.68% �62.90% �71.概 �-4.7% �233292 �約.31% ��231684 �39.49% �38.36% �44.88% �5.00% �49.88%

    ‡早苗栗野浅 �棚520 �74.63% �72.80% �73.0% �-1.6% �327420 �約.20% ��324帥5 �33.18% �28.37% �39.25% �5.00% �4A25%

    辛含串衝く �2138519 �75.76% �71.93% �72.0乳 �-3.8% �1539734 �約.35% ��1520711 �44.68% �57.06% �50.01% �5.00% �55.01%

    二、満腹廉.・ �415122 �71.13% �73.11% �71.0% �-0.1% �294737 �99.26% ��292556 �42.37% �4飢04% �48.75% �5.00% �53.75%

    鴻継味一一三‾ �1022962 �73.46% �72.93% �73.0% �-0.5% �746762 �99.00% ��73的16 �46.49% �53.71% �52.26% �5.00% �57.26%

    ∴垂林痕;_ �566207 �68.92% �74.09% �71.0% �2.1% �402007 �98.88% ��397502 �55.81% �56.98% �60.32% �5.00% �65.32%

    -∴′′嘉強頼ジ、 �430885 �72.48% �74.19% �72.0% �-0.5% �310237 �争乱02% ��307210 �58.58% �63.0的 �62.7的 �5.00% �67.79% �■鉦励 占吉。3ウリしぎ

    、、∴■凄義市_‾、■・ �210758 �73.53% �70.96% �71.0% �-2.5% �14粥38 �争乱36% ��148676 �51.04% �51.41% �56.0鍋 �5.00% �61.06% � �餌的針∴門口托-しん 銀水パル烏Lrり 呼勝‾色も習才.汚 染軋斗約9-/与/ 廃油紅亮才甘bL.日 嬢鴎パ甘弊-与圧

    薮着帯泰阜 �1528240 �74.18% �65.88% �72.0% �-2.2% �1100337 �約.27% ��1092257 �57.72% �72.90% �61.98% �5.00% �66.98%

    …-_‡満雄帯、 �225心24 �75.91% �購.44% �73.0% �-2.9% �1645657 �99.34% ��1634833 �53.42% �68.09% �56.88% �5.00% �61.掴%

    圭南東紅く �689170 �72.67% �73.53% �72.0% �」).7% �496202 �!相.08% ��491643 �55.13% �62.93% �58.11払 �5.00% �63.11% ′‾∴宜蘭県-ノミ′ �369211 �72.54% �70.4鍋 �71,0% �-1.5% �262140 �9臥06% ��259680 �52.53% �63.95% �57.71% �5.00% �62.71%

    -∴′花塵県:、 �267862 �64.64% �61.77% �62.0% �-2.6% �166074 �9飢08% ��164546 �25.04% �- �29.80% �5.00% �34.80%

    ■、∴一台東県■′ �179547 �61.79% �67.82% �82.0% �0.2% �111319 �99.08% ��110293 �30.50% �45.59% �34.48% �5二〇〇% �39.48% �鹿瀬・3g.亨/斗草

    r■■遥湖県、′ �84222 �59.01% �66.27% �59.0% �0.0% �49691 �9さ.82% ��49103 �45.65% �55.34% �49.47% �5.00% �54.47% �一風臆_如・ぎ/・寸座 線厳■■l㌢0ロー,?こ.し 紬.鍋i■b,揮い軒

    豆褒啓県?.■- �111386 �46.67% �45.15% �45.0% �-1.7% �50124 �的.19% ��側71g �8.22% �- �6.05% �5」00% �11.05%

    ‾′連江県‥‥′、 �10240 �65.79% �67.05% �840% �-1.8% �6554 �争乱03% ��糾90 �8.03% �- �5.76% �5.00% �10.76%

    総計 �187蛇的1 �74.38% �67.59% �71.胡% �-3.0% �13403497 �鍋.27% ��13305960 �45.63% � �50.11% �5.00% �55.11% �弘離塵㌻付2 む雷

    観覧 もらユ7   は解約¢2 11弼叩汐

    ‡ ・∴・/     ・、、  一JLヱ、‥

    1/2

  • 作成:小笠原 2016年総統選挙各候補得票率予想

    国民党の過去と今回の予想 ���宋楚稔の過去と今回の予想 �����増減 ��彗饗一得票数 ���� ∴‾.勃頼巨■こ 凍寒紅 �辛2014-.∴‡ �莞■紬総菜二‾ �弓一三二温田2豆 �ニ‾=■漫離一斗一二一宰 �嶺磨鮪- �‡三‾頒細粒・ ��庵無料猷‾ �頒摘撞掛.‡ � �、、三二■凍壷倫喜 �、誉乗車綴喜 �_感賞まめ �県市

    頒騰猷 �凍立瘡ミ �湧麺掛・、 �無怒顧纏 �掬療転 �探索 �恕 �喜簿擬岩 �照軸畑 �≡‾牒簿華.-.‥-く′・′ ���牛畢 57.87% �40.82% �38.2% �2.58% �57.1梢 �9.23% �予叛 �紘::1 �10.5% �-19.7% �789478 �602958 �186521 �186,521 � �潮_蹄‡、、…一㌔

    53.73% �50.06% �3.3.5% �2.82% �0.00% �乱23% �∴・1-.組炉 ��11.0% �-20.3% �1231846 �756170 �272252 �475.676 � �箭雑酎

    59.29% �27.47% �36.8% �3.94% �16.27% �凱23% �∴13.函■、三、 ��13.2% �-22.5% �105072 �77380 �27683 �27.683 �宰基経帯ニ1・,′

    57.20% �47.87% �37.3% �2.粥% �0.00% �乱23% �凋康駁‾、■ ��10.6% �-19.9% �571464 �422354 �137794 �149,110 �三、、㌔‾桃闇市_

    65.76% �46.94% �42.5% �3.31% �44.82% �9.23% �‾烏衷猷 ��14.1% �-23.3% �132729 �125242 �38983 �7.487 �字新竹県、・・

    57.43% �37.85% �35.7% �3.08% �20.28% �9.23% �・言絃料・_・ ��12.5% �-21.7% �120476 �82697 �28511 �37,779 � �新竹串

    63.85% �46.59% �43,8% �2.97% �19.06% �9.23% �万頃掛・ ��10.8% �-20.0% �142914 �142259 �39631 �655 �訴鋳掛.・′

    52.16% �42.94% �32.8% �3.16% �0.00% �乱23% �章‾埠 �速乾、 �10.3% �-19.5% �841341 �498813 �189557 �342.528 � �掛軸樅-÷

    54.63% �50.96% �35.8% �3.00% �0.00% �923% �∴1■2滋軋.こ ��9.6% �-18.9% �152129 �104637 �35790 �47.493 � �凄捜痕藻

    50.58% �39.58% �30.8% �2.的% �5.23% �0.23% �′■三‾1.、2 �纏え∴ �10.5% �-19.7% �421410 �228034 �89872 �193,376 �三三三・潅瀬軒‾

    41.67% �43.02% �23.3% �2.52% �0.00% �9.23% �_二‾讐1・ �瀬 �9.2% �-18.4% �258377 �92426 �46699 �165.950 �、誉華嶽恕‥:‡

    39.04% �34.0的 �21.咄 �2.38% �0.00% �0.23% �拍庵か ��8.4% �-17.7% �205831 �65721 �35659 �140,110 � �嘉革県‾′

    46.27% �45.50% �28.1% �2.69% �0.00% �9.23% �、一月.醜∴ ��9.0% �-18.2% �89205 �41749 �17721 �47.457 � �⑯酢軒

    39.80% �27.10% �21.3% �2.48% �0.00% �9.23% �・‾!、′、i �一間結 �9.3% �-18.5% �731812 �2325鍼 �1278側 �49凱216 �詩離顧紅

    44.19% �30.89% �26.4% �2.39% �0.00% �9.23% �凍、 �去終‾ �8.6% �-17.的 �1013597 �431308 �189928 �582.288 � �裔癒軒三・三

    42.93% �37.07% �23.鍋 �1.94% �0.00% �923% �雄章 �漸‡ご■ �9.9% �-19.門島 �319568 �117158 �54917 �202.410 � �顆東跨.三‥′

    44.拍% �36.05% �26.2% �2.59% �0.00% �9.23% �圭1:1 �淑….ミ �9.5% �-18.7% �161002 �67997 �30682 �93.005 �…∴二簿葡料二、.‾、

    70.30% �27.62% �45.0% �3.76% �56.53% �乱23% �∴__無頼炉 ��16.1% �-25.3% �69109 �74058 �21378 �-4,949 � �我蓮県ノ′-

    66.47% �54.41% �42.7% �3.02% �0.00% �9.23% �≡、、;兼 �新手、 �14.5% �-23.7% �49632 �47148 �13515 �2.486 �轟離離結

    49.76% �44.66% �30.2% �4.59% �0.00% �9.23% �王様鰍・.・ ��10.3% �-19.6% �27498 �14820 �6785 �12,678 �さ‾■鴻細味-

    89.24% �33.35% �83.2% �2.55% �52.77% �923% �一再-ヨ �嫉てご �16.8% �-26.0% �12430 �31434 �5856 �-19.004 � �金円県1、

    86.引% �100.00% �75.4% �5.36% �0.00% �9.23% �∴■14 �8駁‾.′ �2.0% �-11.2% �649 �4894 �047 �-4,245 �㍊お顔結

    51.60% � �32.03% �2.77% � �臥23% �湖紬噂 ��10.3% �-19.6% �7447560 �4261860 �1506531 �3185709 �総計

    3しけ        12才デ ��������lO.021 標準偏差 �0.021 標準偏差 �l占断碑抑33も∫ の鍬 3堵′3ブタ

    ,、・           一・一         一 ・一 一・、J・て・ト 一    一・一、

    2/2

    2016.1.12