Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagangan Internasional · 2018. 6. 5. · Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagemgan Internasional II. PERDAGANGAN INTRAINDUSTRI Teori perdagangan konvensional

Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Vol 40, No. 3,1992

Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagangan Internasional

F a i s a l H . B a s r i

ABSTRACT

During the last two decades, there have been fundamental changes in international trade. World trade gravity has shifted from the Translantic to Pasific, accomppanied by the importance of Japan in world trade and the emerging of Asian NICS (Korea, Hongkong, Taiwan and Singapore). The Structure of commodities traded has also changed due to, among others, technological development.

Along with those development the importance of transnational corporation has also been growing. Protectionism, however has also been flourishing, and lead to move severe market imperfection.

These development have impaired the ability of previous theories of

international trade in explaining patterns and benefits of international

trade. Consequently, their predicting ability have been reduced.

This article tries to review some of recent development in theories of international trade. Even though most of these theories fail to present a more applicative models for developing countries, some aspects of these models could be used to explain (or at least to understand) trade patterns in relation to economic development in LDC's.

Theories reviewed in this article include inter-industry trade, technological gap and product cycle hyphothesis and trade in services. Methods for calculating performance, an indicator for comparative advantage, and its results for Indonesian export is also presented.

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I . P E N D A H U L U A N

I l m u p e n g e t a h u a n p a d a g a l i b n y a m e r u p a k a n c e r m i n a n d a n t a n g g a p a n t e r h a d a p d i n a m i k a k e h i d u p a n . D i t e n g a h p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n y a n g t e r j a d i d e n g a n k o m p l e k s i t a s p e r m a s a l a h a n y a n g k i a n m e n i n g g i - s e h i n g g a s e m e n t a r a k a l a n g a n m e n g a t a k a n b a h w a p e r u b a h a n i t u s e n d i r i s u d a h m e r u p a k a n s e s u a t u y a n g p e r m a n e n - s e t i a p d i s i p l i n i l m u d i t u n t u t u n t u k m e n g e n a l i s e c a r a c e p a t d a n c e r m a t f e n o m e n a b a r u d a n m e l a k u k a n p r e d i k s i s e a k u r a t m u n g k i n . B e g i t u p u n d a l a m k h a s a n a h t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l .

D a l a m d u a d e k a d e t e r a k h i r t e r j a d i p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n m e n d a s a r d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l . G r a v i t a s i p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a b e r g e s e r d a r i T r a n s l a n t i k k e P a s i f i k , d i s e r t a i o l e h m a k i n d o m i n a n n y a p e r a n a n J e p a n g d a n k e m u n c u l a n a k t o r - a k t o r b a r u y a n g k i a n p e n t i n g , y a k n i Asian Newly Industrializing Countries ( K o r e a , H o n g K o n g , T a i w a n d a n S i n g a p u r a ) . S t r u k t u r k o m o d i t i y a n g d i p e r d a g a n g k a n p u n b e r u b a h , a n t a r a l a i n d i s e b a b k a n o l e h p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i y a n g p e s a t . B e r s e j a j a r a n d e n g a n k e d u a p e r k e m b a n g a n i n i , p e r a n a n transnational corporation ( T N C ) m a k i n b e s a r . O p e r a s i m e r e k a a m a t d i t u n j a n g o l e h p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i s e p e r t i d i s e b u t k a n d i m u k a s e r t a a r u s f i n a n s i a l g l o b a l y a n g k i a n m e n e m b u s b a t a s - b a t a s n e g a r a . N a m u n , d i s i s i l a i n , p r a k t e k - p r a k t e k p r o t e k s i o n i s m e m e n y e b a b k a n p a s a r n y a m a k i n t a k s e m p u r n a . S e l a i n d i s e b a b k a n o l e b p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n m e n d a s a r d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n g l o b a l , p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a j u g a t a k l e p a s d a r i p e r g e s e r a n g e o p o l i t i k d a n s i s t e m n i l a i , y a n g i m b a s n y a b o l e h d i k a t a k a n m e r a s u k k e s e m u a n e g a r a t a n p a k e c u a l i . K e s e m u a n y a s a l i n g b e r i n t e r a k s i s e h i n g g a s u l i t u n t u k m e n g a t a k a n y a n g s a t u d i s e b a b k a n o l e h y a n g l a i n s e c a r a s e a r a h .

A d a l a h p e r k e m b a n g a n y a n g c e p a t i n i l a h y a n g m e m b u a t t e o r i - t e o r i t e r d a h u l u k i a n t u m p u l d a l a m m e n j e l a s k a n p o l a d a n m a n f a a t p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r b a n g s a . M a k a t a k p e l a k l a g i , k e m a m p u a n m e r a m a l d a r i t e o r i - t e o r i t e r s e b u t p u n k i a n l e m a h .

A r t i k e l i n i m e n y o r o t i p e r k e m b a n g a n t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a l a m k o n t e k s p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n t e r s e b u t d i a t a s , k h u s u s n y a y a n g d i s e r t a i d e n g a n h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n e m p i r i k . S a y a n g n y a , k e b a n y a k a n t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n m u t a k h i r t i d a k m c n y a j i k a n m o d e l - m o d e l y a n g l e b i h a p l i k a t i f u n t u k n e g a r a s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g ( N S B ) d a r i p a d a u n t u k n e g a r a m a j u ( B l i s s , 1 9 8 9 : 1 2 1 1 ) . N a m u n , b e b e r a p a s i s i d a r i m o d e l - m o d e l i n i d a p a t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n ( a t a u s e t i d a k n y a m e m a h a m i ) p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n d a l a m k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n p e m b a n g u n a n d i N S B , t e r m a s u k I n d o n e s i a .

T a n p a m e n g u r a n g i a r t i p e n t i n g d a r i t e o r i - t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g l a i n , a r t i k e l i n i h a n y a m c n y a j i k a n b e b e r a p a t e o r i / m o d e l p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l y a n g r e l a t i f m u t a k h i r , y a k n i : p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i , technological gap and product cycle hypothesis d a n p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a . S e b a g a i p e l e n g k a p , a k a n p u l a d i s a j i k a n m e t o d e d a n h a s i l p e r h i t u n g a n k i n e r j a e k s p o r - s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f - k o m o d i t i e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a .

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I I . P E R D A G A N G A N I N T R A I N D U S T R I

T e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n k o n v e n s i o n a l s a n g a t b e r m a n f a a t u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n m e n g a p a p e r b e d a a n r e l a t i f d a l a m p r o d u k t i v i t a s p e k e r j a d a n k a r u n i a s u m b e r (endowment) m e n y e b a b k a n t e r j a d i n y a s p e s i a l i s a s i p r o d u k s i d a n p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r b a n g s a , d a n m e n g a p a p o l a s p e s i a l i s a s i m e m p e n g a r u h i d i s t r i b u s i p e n d a p a t a n . N a m u n , t e o r i - t e o r i i n i t i d a k h a n d a l d a l a m m e n j e l a s k a n p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g t e r j a d i d e w a s a i n i , y a n g d i c i r i k a n o l e h d o m i n a s i p e r d a g a n g a n d i a n t a r a s e s a m a n e g a r a i n d u s t r i m a j u y a n g p a d a u m u m n y a m e m i l i k i factor endowment y a n g s a m a d a n p o l a p e r t u k a r a n b a r a n g / k e l o m p o k b a r a n g s e j e n i s . M i s a l n y a , m o d e l p r o p o r s i f a k t o r H e c k s c h e r - O h l i n - y a n g m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a s u a t u n e g a r a c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g p r o d u k s i n y a s e c a r a i n t e n s i f m e n g g u n a k a n f a k t o r p r o d u k s i y a n g r e l a t i f m e l i m p a h d i n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n - t a k d a p a t m e n j e l a s k a n f e n o m e n a p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i .

T e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n a k h i r - a k h i r i n i m e n g a c u p a d a s t u d i D i x i t & N o r m a n , E t h i e r , H e l p m a n , K r u g m a n d a n L a n c a s t e r ( O c a m p o , 1 9 8 6 : 1 5 2 ) . T o k o h - t o k o h i n i p u l a y a n g b a n y a k b e r u p a y a m e n g e m b a n g k a n t e o r i i n i l e b i h l a n j u t , d e n g a n k e s a m a a n d a n p e r b e d a a n s u d u t p a n d a n g d a n p e n e k a n a n d i s a n a s i n i s a t u s a m a l a i n .

S e c a r a g a r i s b e s a r , t e o r i i n i m e n g e l o m p o k k a n k o m o d i t i k e d a l a m d u a b a g i a n : p r o d u k h o m o g e n d a n p r o d u k b e r a g a m (diversifiedproducts). U n t u k k e l o m p o k p e r t a m a b e r l a k u k a i d a h p e r s a i n g a n s e b a g a i m a n a l a z i m n y a , t e t a p i t i d a k d e m i k i a n u n t u k k e l o m p o k k e d u a . U n t u k p r o d u k - p r o d u k y a n g b e r a g a m - y a n g d i c i r i k a n o l e h m e n o n j o l n y a p e r a n a n m e r e k u n t u k m e m b e d a k a n s u a t u b a r a n g d e n g a n b a r a n g l a i n y a n g s e j e n i s - s u a t u r a n c a n g a n p r o d u k h a n y a d i p r o d u k s i o l e h s a t u p e r u s a h a a n , s e h i n g g a m e m u n g k i n k a n t e r j a d i n y a increasing returns to scale. K o n s u m e n m e n i l a i p r o d u k - p r o d u k y a n g d i h a s i l k a n s e b a g a i p r o d u k s e j e n i s t e t a p i b u k a n m e r u p a k a n p e n g g a n t i s e p e n u b n y a (perfect substitutes) s a t u s a m a l a i n .

D a r i p e n g g a m b a r a n u m u m d i a t a s t a m p a k b a h w a d u a a s u m s i t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n k o n v e n s i o n a l (constant returns to scale) d a n p a s a r p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a t e l a h g u g u r . K i n i b a y a n g k a n k e a d a a n p a s a r m o n o p o l i s t i k d a n t e r j a d i increasing returns to scale.

A. Model

A n g g a p l a h h a n y a a d a d u a n e g a r a , S a l e m b a d a n D e p o k . M a s i n g - m a s i n g n e g a r a m e m p r o d u k s i d u a b a r a n g , p a n g a n d a n m a n u f a k t u r d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n d u a f a k t o r p r o d u k s i , m o d a l d a n p e k e r j a . M i s a l k a n S a l e m b a b e r k e m e l i m p a h a n (abundant) m o d a l r e l a t i f t e r h a d a p p e k e r j a , d a n D e p o k s e b a l i k n y a . P r o d u k s i p a n g a n b e r s i f a t p a d a t k a r y a d a n p r o d u k s i m a n u f a k t u r p a d a t m o d a l .

M e n u r u t m o d e l H e c k s c h e r - O h l i n , j i k a t e r p e n u h i k o n d i s i p e r s a i n g a n

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P e r a g a 1

Monopolistic Competition d e n g a n P e r d a g a n g a n I n t e r n a s i o n a l

H a r g a

0 Q o 0 2 Q i K u a n t i t a s

s e m p u r n a , S a l e m b a a k a n m e n g e k s p o r m a n u f a k t u r d a n D e p o k m e n g e k s p o r p a n g a n . N a m u n , a n g g a p l a h k i n i b a h w a m a n u f a k t u r b u k a n m e r u p a k a n i n d u s t r i p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a m e l a i n k a n p e r s a i n g a n m o n o p o l i s t i k .

P e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r a S a l e m b a d a n D e p o k m e m u n g k i n k a n p e r l u a s a n p a s a r b a g i s e t i a p p r o d u k . N a m u n , p r o d u s e n m a n u f a k t u r d i D e p o k m e n g h a s i l k a n p r o d u k y a n g m i r i p d e n g a n y a n g d i h a s i l k a n o l e h p r o d u s e n m a n u f a k t u r d i S a l e m b a . D i l a i n p i h a k , k o n s u m e n S a l e m b a m e m p u n y a i a l t e r n a t i f u n t u k m e m i l i h m a n u f a k t u r p r o d u k s i D e p o k . P a d a P e r a g a 1 k e j a d i a n i n i t e r c e r m i n d a r i p e r g e s e r a n k u r v a p e r m i n t a a n d a r i D D k e D^D . K u r v a D^D' l e b i h l a n d a i d a r i DD k a r e n a k o n s u m e n l e b i h b a n y a k p i l i h a n . D e n g a n t i n g k a t p r o d u k s i Qj d a n h a r g a Pj setiap perusahaan (katakanlah kurva biaya setiap perusahaan identik) memperoleh laba sebesar bidang ABE^Pi-Sepanjang p e r u s a h a a n m a s i h m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n m o n o p o l i m a k a p e r u s a h a a n l a i n a k a n m a s u k k e p a s a r d e n g a n p r o d u k s i s e j e n i s h i n g g a a k h i r n y a k u r v a p e r m i n t a a n y a n g d i h a d a p i p e r u s a h a a n b e r g e s e r k e D D . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n k e s e i m b a n g a n j a n g k a p a n j a n g b e r a d a p a d a £ ^ , k a l a m e n y i n g g u n g k u r v a average cost ( A C ) , d a n s e t i a p p e r u s a h a a n m e n g a l a m i z e r o economic profit. P a d a k e s e i m b a n g a n b a r u , k u a n t i t a s y a n g d i p r o d u k s i l e b i h b a n y a k d e n g a n h a r g a y a n g l e b i h r e n d a h .

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i m e r u p a k a n s u m b e r k e u n t u n g a n b a r u d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l . D e n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i s u a t u n e g a r a s e c a r a s i m u l t a n d a p a t m e n g u r a n g i r a g a m b a r a n g y a n g d i p r o d u k s i n y a s e h i n g g a m e n c a p a i economies of scale d a n

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m e m p e r b a n y a k r a g a m b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i o l e h m a s y a r a k a t n y a . S e l a i n i t u , b i a y a y a n g d i p e r l u k a n d a l a m p e n y e s u a i a n p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i l e b i h r e n d a h - d a n o l e h k a r e n a i t u l e b i h m u d a h - d a r i p a d a p e n y e s u a i a n d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r i n d u s t r i . P r o s e s n y a a k a n l e b i h m u d a h l a g i j i k a t e r d a p a t m o b i l i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i .

B . P e n g u k u r a n dan B u k t i - b u k t i E m p i r i k

P e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i e k s p o r d a n i m p o t p r o d u k - p r o d u k d a r i s u a t u i n d u s t r i y a n g s a m a s e c a r a s i m u l t a n . P e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r a s e s a m a n e g a r a m a j u b i a s a n y a d i c i r i k a n o l e h r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i . H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a k o n s u m e n d i n e g a r a y a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n t i n g g i m e m b e l a n j a k a n b a g i a n y a n g c u k u p b e s a r d a r i p e n d a p a t a n n y a u n t u k b a r a n g - b a r a n g m a n u f a k t u r c a n g g i h y a n g a m a t b e r a g a m . S e b a l i k n y a , p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r a s e s a m a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d a n a n t a r a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g d e n g a n n e g a r a m a j u l e b i h d i c i r i k a n o l e h p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n a n t a r i n d u s t r i . j

U k u r a n y a n g l a z i m d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i d e r a j a t i n t e n s i t a s p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

d i m a n a Xiji^ a d a l a h n i l a i a t a u v o l u m e e k s p o r k e l o m p o k b a r a n g k e - / d a r i n e g a r a k e - j k e n e g a r a k e - A : , d a n Xj^j a d a l a h a r u s p e r d a g a n g a n k e l o m p o k b a r a n g y a n g s a m a d e n g a n a r a h y a n g b e r l a w a n a n . I n d e k s i n i a k a n b e r n i l a i p a l i n g r e n d a h n o l j i k a p e r d a g a n g a n h a n y a t e r j a d i s a t u a r a h , d a n s e b a l i k n y a a k a n b e r n i l a i m a k s i m u m s a t u j i k a p e r d a g a n g a n s e i m b a n g ( Y ; y ^ =Xikj)-

I n d e k s d i a t a s s e b e t u l n y a m e r u p a k a n v e r s i l a i n d a r i y a n g d i r u m u s k a n o l e h G r u b e l L l o y d . P e r b e d a a n n y a , y a n g t e r a k h i r i n i m e n g g u n a k a n n i l a i t e r t i n g g i 1 0 0 .

(X,^M-)- I f , . - M , . |

^'•= QCT^) ^'^^

d i m a n a B; a d a l a h i n d e k s p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i ; X a d a l a h e k s p o r ; M a d a l a h i m p o r ; d a n / a d a l a h p r o d u k k e - / , i - 1 , 2 , n.

I . Studi Krugman & Obstfeld

K r u g m a n & O b s t f e l d ( 1 9 9 1 ) m e n g a m a t i d a m p a k p e n g h a p u s a n r i n t a n g a n - r i n t a n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n m o b i l a n t a r a A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a n K a n a d a . S e b e l u m 1 9 6 5 p r o t e k s i t a r i f f o l e h K a n a d a m e m u n g k i n k a n p a b r i k - p a b r i k m o b i l A S m e n d i r i k a n subsidiaries d i K a n a d a y a n g t u j u a n u t a m a n y a i a l a h

223

Basri

u n t u k p e m e n u h a n p e r m i n t a a n d o m e s t i k . P a b r i k - p a b r i k m o b i l d i K a n a d a b o l e h d i k a t a k a n m e r u p a k a n v e r s i m i n i a t u r d a r i p a b r i k i n d u k n y a d i A S , d e n g a n s k a l a h a n y a k i r a - k i r a s e p e r s e p u l u h n y a . A n a k - a n a k p e r u s a h a a n m o b i l A S m e n y a d a r i b a h w a s k a l a k e c i l m e m b u a t m e r e k a m e n g a l a m i k e r u g i a n . P a s a r y a n g s e m p i t d i s a t u p i h a k d a n t u n t u t a n u n t u k m e m p r o d u k s i b e r b a g a i j e n i s m o b i l d a i i s u k u c a d a n g d i l a i n p i h a k , a d a l a h s u m b e r k e r u g i a n n y a , m e n g i n g a t c a r a d e m i k i a n t i d a k m e n d o r o n g k e a r a h s p e s i a l i s a s i . H a l i n i p u l a l a h y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s p e k e r j a i n d u s t r i m o b i l d i K a n a d a 3 0 p e r s e n l e b i h r e n d a h d a r i p a d a p e k e r j a s e t a r a d i A S .

U n t u k m e n g a t a s i p e r s o a l a n - p e r s o a l a n d i a t a s , p a d a t a h u n 1 9 6 4 A S d a n K a n a d a s e p a k a t m e m b e n t u k free trade area d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n m o b i l . S e t e l a h i t u a n a k - a n a k p e r u s a h a a n m o b i l d i K a n a d a m e n u r u n k a n p r o d u k s i n y a s e c a r a d r a s t i s . G e n e r a l M o t o r s , m i s a l n y a , m e m a n g k a s s e p a r u h j u m l a h j e n i s m o b i l y a n g d i r a k i t d i K a n a d a . T i n g k a t p r o d u k s i d a n l a p a n g a n k e r j a t i d a k b e r u b a h , k a r e n a k i n i K a n a d a b i s a m e n g i m p o r m o b i l l a n g s u n g d a r i A S d e n g a n h a r g a l e b i h m u r a h d a r i s e b e l u m n y a d a n m e m p r o d u k s i p r o d u k - p r o d u k l a i n n y a l e b i h b a n y a k , d i m a n a s e b a g i a n d i e k s p o r k e A S . D e n g a n b e g i t u , e k s p o r d a n i m p o r m o b i l m e n i n g k a t . K e u n t u n g a n y a n g d i p e r o l e h c u k u p b e s a r . S e j a k 1 9 7 0 a n i n d u s t r i m o b i l K a n a d a t e l a h s e t a r a d e n g a n i n d u s t r i m o b i l A S d a l a m h a l p r o d u k t i v i t a s n y a .

2 . Studi Balassa & Bauwents

K e d u a t o k o h t e r k e m u k a d a l a m t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e m a s i o n a i i n i m e l a k u k a n s t u d i y a n g a m b i s i u s d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n 3 8 n e g a r a d a n 1 5 2 k e l o m p o k b a r a n g s e b a g a i s a m p e l n y a . H a s i l s t u d i m e r e k a d i r a n g k u m d a l a m T a b e l 1 .

L i m a v a r i a b e l p e r t a m a m e r u p a k a n k a r a k t e r i s t i k - k a r a k t e r i s t i k u m u m n e g a r a y a n g b e r d a g a n g , d a n h a s i l n y a s e p e r t i y a n g d i h a r a p k a n . S e p e r t i t e l a h d i s i n g g u n g s e b e l u m n y a , n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r p e n d a p a t a n t i n g g i b i s a d i p e r k i r a k a n s a n g a t t e r l i b a t d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i ; s e b a l i k n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n y a n g b e r b e d a a k a n m e m i l i k i s c l e r a y a n g b e r b e d a s e h i n g g a k e t e r l i b a t a n n y a d i d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i a g a k k u r a n g . A d a p u n d a l a m k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n o r i e n t a s i p e r d a g a n g a n j u g a t a m p a k n y a b i s a d i r a e n g e r t i : s e m a k i n b e r o r i e n t a s i k e l u a r s u a t u n e g a r a d a n s e m a k i n s e d i k i t p e m b a t a s a n - p e m b a t a s a n p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g d i b e r l a k u k a n , s e m a k i n b e s a r p u l a p o r s i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i .

E m p a t v a r i a b e l b e r i k u t n y a b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n k a r a k t e t i s l i k h u b u n g a n b i l a t e r a l . S e m a k i n d e k a t j a r a k a n t a r n e g a r a d a n s e m a k i n m e n y a t u m a s y a r a k a t n y a c e n d e r u n g a k a n m e m b u a t p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i m a k i n b e r k e m b a n g .

E n a m v a r i a b e l t e r a k h i r l e b i h m e r u p a k a n k a r a k t e r i s t i k k e l o m p o k b a r a n g . V a r i a b e l p e r t a m a d a n k e d u a k i r a n y a t a k m e m e r l u k a n p e n j e l a s a n k h u s u s . Y a n g b e r b e d a d e n g a n p r e d i k s i t e o r i a d a l a h v a r i a b e l k e t i g a . J i k a a d a p e r u s a h a a n a t a u b e b e r a p a p e r u s a h a a n b e s a r d i s u a t u i n d u s t r i , p e l u a n g l e b i h

2 2 4

P e r k e m b a n g a n T e r b a r u T e o r i P e r d a g a n g a n I n t e m a s i o n a i

T a b e l 1 K a r a k t e r i s t i k - k a r a k t e r i s t i k N e g a r a d a n P r o d u k y a n g M e m p e n g a r u h i

P e r d a g a n g a n I n t r a i n d u s t r i a n t a r a D u a N e g a r a / K e l o m p o k N e g a r a

K A R A K T E R I S T I K DAMPAK • Rata-rata pendapatan per kapita Positif

• Perbedaan pendapatan per kapita Negatif

• Rata-rata pendapatan total Positif

• Perbedaan pendapatan total Negatif

• Rata-rata orientasi pendagangan Positif

• Jarak antara dua negara Negatif

• Perbatasan bersama 1 «WA«%A ftAI • • •

Positif

• Kesamaan bahasa Positif*

• Keanggotaan dalam blok perdagangan Positif

• Diferensiasi produk di dalam suatu Industri Positif''

• Skala ekonomis bagi perusahaan-perusahaan dl suatu industri Negatif

Konsentrasi industri dl suatu Industri Negatif

• Produksi multinasional oleh pe rusahaan -perusahan di suatu industri Negatif^

• Tingkat tariff (bea masuk) rata-rata di suatu industri Tak ada

• Dispersi tarif di dalam suatu industri Negatif

Keterangan:

' Positif untuk negara-negara yang berbahasa Inggris, Perancis, Jerman. dan Portugal tetapi tidak untuk yangbetbahasa Spanyol dan Skandinavia.

Tiga ukuran yang digunakan secara serenlak adalah: indeks harga ekspor { u n i t values) di suatu industri, indeks dispersi untuk keuntungan, dan tingkat pengeluaran untuk ikian. Ketiganya memiliki dampak positif.

' Dua variabel digunakan secara simultan: suatu ukuran pendapatan yang diperolch perusahaan (di suatu industri) dari cabang-cabangnya di luar negeri dan suatu ukuran dari perdagangan mereka dengan cabang-cabangnya di luar negeri. Keduamya memiliki dampak negatif. (Variabel ketiga, yang mencerminkan pengaruh dari ketenluan-kelentuan khusus di dalam skedul tariff Amerika Serikat yang menguntungkan perakilan di luar negeri, memiliki dampak positif seperti yang diharapkan.)

Dampak yang dicanlumkan sebagai "tidak ada" menunjukkan tidak signinkan pada tingkat 0,05.

Sumber: Dikutip dari Kenen (1989). yang bersumber dari Bela Balassa dan Luc Bauwens, "Intra-Industry Specializalion in a Multi-Country and Multi-Industry Framework," W o r l d B a n k Development Research Department, Discussion Paper DRD116, Desember 1984, Tabel 1.

2 2 5

Basri

T a b e l 2 I n d e k s P e r d a g a n g a n I n t r a i n d u s t r i B e r d a s a r k a n M e t o d e A q u i n o

u n t u k M a n u f a k t u r I n d o n e s i a

Mltra dagang t97t 1975 1980 1985 1986

1. Kanada - 0.017 0.00 0.111 -2. Amerika Serikat o.otg 0.004 0.00 0.011 0.052

3. Jepang 0.030 0.004 0.00 0.004 0.071

4. Australia 0.027 ' 0.01 0.084

5. Selandia Baru 0.016 0.00 0.053

6. Korea Selatan 0.052 0.018 0.00 0.133 0.230

7. Taiwan 0.035 0.017 0.107 0.020

8. Hong Kong 0.013 0.033 0.08 0.079 0.276

9. Singapura 0.186 0.123 0.07 0.180 0.200

to. Malaysia 0.346 0,198 0.02 0.405 0.375

11. Filipina 0.031 0.027 0.00 0.408 0.460

t2. Thailand 0.016 0.056 0.00 0.188 0.198

Sumber: untuk tahun 1970 dari Lee ; 1971 dan 1986 dari Kwan (1990); dan 1975, 1985 dari Suprapti (1991)

t e r b u k a u n t u k s t a n d a r d i s a s i a t a u p u n d i f e r e n s i a s i , d a n s t a n d a r d i s a s i c e n d e r u n g u n t u k s p e s i a l i s a s i d a r i p a d a p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i . J a d i d a l a m k a s u s i n i k e k u a t a n y a n g b e r l a w a n a n l e b i h d o m i n a n ( K e n e n , 1 9 8 9 : 1 3 0 - 1 ) .

3. Studi Kasus Indonesia

D i l i h a t d a r i t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d a n s t r u k t u r p e r d a g a n g a n n y a b i s a d i d u g a b a h w a i n d e k s p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t r e n d a h . N a m u n y a n g m e n a r i k i a l a h , i n t e n s i t a s p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a A s e a n d a n A s i a T i m u r m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n ( T a b e l 2 ) .

S t u d i o l e h S u p r a p t i ( 1 9 9 1 ) m e m b u k t i k a n b a h w a s e c a r a u m u m b a h w a p e r b e d a a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a , p e r b e d a a n r a s i o m o d a l - t e n a g a k e r j a , t i n g k a t t a r i f f , d a n j a r a k m e r u p a k a n v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l y a n g s e c a r a s i g n i f i k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i i n t e n s i t a s p e r d a g a n g a n i n t r a i n d u s t r i I n d o n e s i a .

H a s i l d i a t a s m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p e r d a g a n g a n p r o d u k - p r o d u k m a n u f a k t u r a n t a r a I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a a n g g o t a A s e a n d a n A s i a T i m u r m e m p u n y a i p o t e n s i d a n p r o s p e k d i m a s a m e n d a t a n g . M e n d e r a s n y a a r u s i n v e s t a s i d a r i A s i a Newly industrializing economies ( A N I E s ) k e I n d o n e s i a d i p e r k i r a k a n s e m a k i n m e m p e r k u a t k e c e n d e r u n g a n t e r s e b u t .

D a r i h a s i l s t u d i d i a t a s d a n s t u d i o l e h L e e ( 1 9 9 0 ) m e n g i s y a r a t k a n b a h w a k e r j a s a m a e k o n o m i A s e a n , k h u s u s n y a d a l a m r a n g k a m e n y o n g s o n g A x e u n Free Trade Area ( A F T A ) c u k u p m e m p u n y a i l a n d a s a n y a n g k u a t d a n s e c a r a p o t e n s l a l

2 2 6

Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagangan Intemasionai

a k a n m e n g u n t u n g k a n p a r a a n g g o t a n y a . D e n g a n p a s a r y a n g s e m a k i n l u a s , division of labor d i a n t a r a n e g a r a - n e g a r a A s e a n a k a n s e m a k i n t a j a m d a n s e k a l i g u s m e n e k a n p o s i s i m o n o p o l i d i s e t i a p n e g a r a . ^

I I I . H I P O T E S I S T E C H N O L O G I C A L G A P D A N P R O D U C T C Y C L E

S i f a t s t a t i s d a r i m o d e l H e c k s c h e r - O h l i n b i s a m e n i m b u l k a n f r u s t r a s i k a l a k i t a b e r u p a y a m e n e r a p k a n n y a d i d a l a m s t u d i e m p i r i k . K e m u n c u l a n J e p a n g s e b a g a i s a l a h s a t u t o k o h d o m i n a n d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l d a n f e n o m e n a A N I C s m e m b u t u h k a n p e r a n g k a t a n a l i s i s y a n g b e r s i f a t d i n a m i s . B e r i k u t a d a l a h b e b e r a p a t e o r i y a n g d a p a t m e m j e l a s k a n p e r m a s a l a h a n i n i .

H i p o t e s i s k e s e n j a n g a n t e k n o l o g i (technological gap) d i a j u k a n o l e h M . V . P o s t n e r t a h u n 1 9 6 1 , d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r a n g k a i a n i n o v a s i d a n i m i t a s i y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i e k s p o r . T a t k a l a p r o d u k b a r u b e r k e m b a n g d a n m u l a i m e n g u n t u n g k a n d i p a s a r d o m e s t i k , p e r u s a h a a n y a n g m e l a k u k a n i n o v a s i u n t u k s e m e n t a r a w a k t u m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n m o n o p o l i . I a d e n g a n m u d a h m e m a s u k i p a s a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l k a r e n a m a s a l a h entry lag. N a m u n , k e u n t u n g a n y a n g k i a n m e n i n g k a t p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e r a n g s a n g i m i t a s i d i n e g a r a l a i n , t e r u t a m a k a l a u i n o v a s i n y a t e l a h d i d e s i m i l a s i . U n t u k t e t a p m e m i l i k i k e u n g g u l a n d a l a m m e n g e k s p o r , n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n h a r u s s e l a l u m e n g u s a h a k a n t e r j a d i n y a i n o v a s i .

S a m a s e p e r t i t e s i s L i n d e r , h i p o t e s i s P o s t n e r s e c a r a i m p l i s i t d a p a t d i k a t e g o r i k a n s e b a g a i t e o r i spillover, y a k n i e k s p o r b a r u a k a n t e r j a d i k a l a u k o n s u m s i d o m e s t i k t e l a h t e r p e n u h i . B a n y a k b u k t i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a p o l a d e m i k i a n t i d a k s e l a l u t e r j a d i . K e l e m a h a n l a i n n y a a d a l a h , b a i k P o s t n e r m a u p u n L i n d e r t a k d a p a t m e m b e r i k a n a n c a n g - a n c a n g m e n g e n a i t a h a p - t a h a p s e j a k d a r i i n o v a s i h i n g g a i m i t a s i d a n l a m a n y a p r o s e s t e r s e b u t .

S e l a n j u t n y a t e o r i - t e o r i d i a t a s o l e h V e r n o n d i g e n e r a l i s a s i k a n k e d a l a m d a u r p r o d u k (product cycle), d e n g a n p e n e k a n a n p a d a s t a n d a r d i s a s i p r o d u k . V e r n o n m e m b a g i d a u r p r o d u k k e d a l a m t a h a p - t a h a p : p e n g e n a l a n p r o d u k b a r u ( p e n g e n a l a n ) , p r o d u k p e m a t a n g a n d a n p r o d u k b a k u . ^

B a i k h i p o t e s i s k e s e n j a n g a n t e k n o l o g i d a n d a u r p r o d u k m e n e k a n k a n p e n t i n g n y a p e r a n a n t e k n o l o g i . T e k n o l o g i a k a n m e n e n t u k a n s t r u k t u r i n d u s t r i d a n p a d a g i l i r a n n y a m e n e n t u k a n p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n s u a t u n e g a r a . P e n g a l i h a n a t a u p e r p i n d a h a n t e k n o l o g i d a p a t b e r l a n g s u n g l e w a t p e n a n a m a n m o d a l a s i n g o l e h p e r u s a h a a n m u l t i n a s i o n a l a t a u l e w a t p e m b e l i a n l i s e n s i / p a t e n , a t a u v i a p i n j a m a n l u a r n e g e r i , a t a u b a h k a n d e n g a n p e n g i n t a i a n i n d u s t r i a l . K e c e n d e r u n g a n m a k i n n y a t a b a h w a imitation lag k h u s u s n y a d a n d a u r p r o d u k u m u m n y a m a k i n p e n d e k , k a r e n a p r o l i f e r a s i p e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n m u l t i n a s i o n a l d a n a n a k - a n a k p e r u s a h a a n n y a y a n g m e n d o r o n g t r a n s m i s i t e k n o l o g i i n t e r n a s i o n a l - t e k n o l o g i t a k m e m i l i k i k e w a r g a n e g a r a a n .

S i s i l a i n y a n g a m a t m e n e n t u k a n d a l a m i n o v a s i a d a l a h k e g i a t a n

2 2 7

Basri

P e r a g a 2

Catching-up product Cycle Development I n d u s t r i T e k s t i l K a t u n d i J e p a n g

( m i l l i o n y e n ) a t 1 9 3 4 - 3 6 c o n s t a n t p r i c e s

Catalan : Rata-rata Berjalan Tujuh Tahun dari Permintaan Domestik. Produksi, Ekspor, dan impor dari Cotton F a b r i c s . Sumber: Direpioduksi dari Fig. 4-3 di halaman 79, Yamazawa (1984)

2 2 8


p e n e l i t i a n d a n p e n g e m b a n g a n ( R & D ) . S u a t u p e n e l i t i a n t e r h a d a p 1 9 i n d u s t r i A m e r i k a , m i s a l n y a , m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a 5 i n d u s t r i d e n g a n u p a y a p e n e l i t i a n p a l i n g k u a t - y a n g d i u k u r d e n g a n p e r s e n t a s e p e n g e l u a r a n u n t u k R & D s e r t a p e r s e n t a s e j u m l a h scientists d a n engineers d a l a m R & D t e r h a d a p k e s e l u r u h a n p e k e r j a — m e n g e k s p o r s e k i t a r 7 2 p e r s e n d a r i e k s p o r m a n u f a k t u r t o t a l A m e r i k a ( R o o t , 1 9 8 4 : 2 6 3 ) . S t u d i o l e h K e e s i n g , G r u b e r , M e h t a d a n V e r n o n j u g a m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a t e r d a p a t h u b u n g a n y a n g e r a t a n t a r a i n t e n s i t a s k e g i a t a n R & D d e n g a n k i n e r j a e k s p o r ( C h a c h o l i a d e s , 1 9 9 0 : 1 0 8 ) .

F e n o m e n a J e p a n g d a n A N I C S m e n j a d i b a h a n s t u d i c u k u p i n t e n s i f d a n k i n i m a k i n m e m p e r o l e h p e r h a t i a n s e h u b u n g a n d e n g a n p r o s e s r e l o k a s i i n d u s t r i a k i b a t a p r e s i a s i m a t a u a n g d a n n a i k n y a t i n g k a t u p a h y a n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i d i s a n a . P e n g a m a t a n t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n y a n g d i d a s a r k a n p a d a p e r k e m b a n g a n p r o d u k s i , e k s p o r d a n i m p o r s u a t u p r o d u k s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u t e r t e n t u m e n u n j u k k a n a d a n y a p o l a t e r t e n t u b e r b e n t u k h u r u f V t e r b a l i k . P o l a i n i d i k e n a l s e b a g a i flying-geese pattern. S e b e t u l n y a p e n g a m a t a n t e r h a d a p p o l a d e m i k i a n t e l a h l a m a d i l a k u k a n o l e h A k a m a t s u ( 1 9 6 2 ) - s e b a g a i o r a n g y a n g m e m p e r k e n a l k a n i s t i l a h the wild-geese flying pattern- k a l a i a m e n j e l a s k a n p o l a p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i J e p a n g .

P e n e l i t i a n m u t a k h i r m e n g e n a i h a l i n i d i l a k u k a n o l e h Y a m a z a w a ( 1 9 8 6 ) d e n g a n m e n g a m b i r k a s u s i n d u s t r i t e k s t i l J e p a n g . I a m e n g g a m b a r k a n p r o s e s p e r k e m b a n g a n i n d u s t r i t e k s t i l d i J e p a n g s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u 1 8 8 0 - 1 9 8 0 d a n m e n e m u k a n p o l a s e b a g a i m a n a t e r l i h a t p a d a P e r a g a 2 . P e r a g a i n i m e n u n j u k k a n d a u r p r o d u k y a n g catching-up : b e r m u l a d a r i m e n g i m p o r p r o d u k b a r u , l a l u d i i k u t i d e n g a n p r o d u k s i s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r , s e l a n j u t n y a m e l a k u k a n e k s p o r , d a n l a m b a t l a u n m e n j a d i i m p o r t i r n e t o . P e r k e m b a n g a n d e n g a n p o l a y a n g s e r u p a d i j u m p a i p u l a d i i n d u s t r i - i n d u s t r i l a i n , s e p e r t i b a j a . S a m p a i t a h a p t e r t e n t u , i n d u s t r i m o b i l p u n d e m i k i a n . j

K a n e k o d a n Y a n a g i ( 1 9 8 8 ) m e n g g u n a k a n trade specialization ratio ( T S R ) u n t u k m e l a k u k a n p e r i o d i s a s i p r o s e s i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n . T S R d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

y a n g m a n a E d a n M m a s i n g - m a s i n g a d a l a h e k s p o r d a n i m p o r d a n / m e n u n j u k k a n p r o d u k k e - i . A n g k a T S R a d a l a h a n t a r a - 1 d a n + 1 . P a d a t a h a p p e n g e n a l a n T S R b e r k i s a r a n t a r a - 1 s a m p a i - 0 , 5 ; t a h a p s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r a n t a r a - 0 , 5 d a n n o l ; l a h a p p e r l u a s a n e k s p o r a n t a r a n o l h i n g g a s e k i t a r + 0 , 8 ; t a h a p p e m a t a n g a n d i s e p u t a r + 1 ; d a n t a h a p m e n g i m p o r k e m b a l i a n t a r a 0 , 8 s a m p a i n o l . U n t u k j e l a s n y a , l i h a t P e r a g a 3 . I

D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e r a n g k a t a n a l i s i s i n i d a p a t d i k e t a h u i p e r u b a h a n k e u n g ' g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f s e t i a p p r o d u k d i s e t i a p n e g a r a . U n t u k b a r a n g k o n s u m s i non-durable m i s a l n y a , s e b a g a i m a n a t e r l i h a t p a d a P e r a g a 4 a , A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a n J e p a n g t e l a h k e h i l a n g a n d a y a s a i n g e k s p o r n y a . P a d a

2 2 9

Basri

P e r a g a 3 P o l a U m u m D a u r P r o d u k

— — ^ X ^ ^ ^

1 2 3 4 ^

p e r a g a y a n g s a m a j u g a t e r l i h a t b a h w a d a y a s a i n g I n d o n e s i a u n t u k j e n i s p r o d u k i n i s a m p a i s e k a r a n g m a s i h t e t a p r e n d a h ; S e m e n t a r a i t u , b e b e r a p a n e g a r a A S E A N l a i n n y a m e m i l i k i d a y a s a i n g y a n g m a k i n t i n g g i .

K a n e k o d a n Y a n a g i j u g a m e n g a m a t i k h u s u s n e g a r a - n e g a r a A S E A N m a s i n g - m a s i n g p a s a r A m e r i k a , M a s y a r a k a t E r o p a , J e p a n g , O c e a n i a , n e g a r a - n e g a r a p e n g h a s i l m i n y a k d a n A s i a S e l a t a n .

I V . P E R D A G A N G A N J A S A

M e s k i p u n p e n t i n g n y a p e r a n a n s e k t o r j a s a d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n t e l a h b a n y a k d i b a h a s d a l a m l i t e r a t u r e k o n o m i , p e m b a h a s a n d a n b u k t i - b u k t i e m p i r i k t e n t a n g p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a m a s i h s a n g a t t e r b a t a s . B o l e h j a d i , k e n y a t a a n i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h a s u m s i i m p l i s i t b a h w a t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n s t a n d a r t i d a k t e r b a t a s h a n y a u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n p e r d a g a n g a n b a r a n g t e t a p i j u g a b e r l a k u u n t u k j a s a .

A . D e f i n i s i dan C a k u p a n

T i d a k a d a s a t u d e f i n i s i b a k u y a n g d i t e r i m a s e c a r a u n i v e r s a l t e n t a n g j a s a . H a l i n i b o l e h j a d i d i s e b a b k a n o l e h b e g i t u b e r a g a m n y a a k t i v i t a s j a s a d e n g a n k a r a k t e r i s t i k y a n g b e r b e d a s a t u s a m a l a i n .

S a l a h s a t u d e f i n i s i y a n g k e r a p d i j a d i k a n a c u a n a d a l a h y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h T . P . H i l l . I a m e n g k o n t r a s k a n b a r a n g d e n g a n j a s a .

2 3 0

• I

Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagangan intemasionai

M e n u r u t n y a , b a r a n g b i s a d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i "suatu obyek fisik yang dapat digapai dan, karena itu, dapat dialihkan di antara unit-unit ekonomi;" s e d a n g k a n j a s a d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i "perubahan dalam keadaan seseorang, atau suatu barang milik suatu unit ekonomi, yang ditimbulkan sebagai hasil dari aktivitas unit ekonomi lainnya." ( H i l l , 1 9 7 7 : 3 1 7 )

D e f i n i s i d i a t a s t a k l e p a s d a r i k r i t i k . M e n u r u t H i l l , j a s a t a k b i s a d i s i m p a n . N a m u n , k e n y a t a a n n y a j a s a - j a s a t e r t e n t u b i s a d i s i m p a n . I n f o r m a s i m i s a l n y a , b i s a d i s i m p a n d i d a l a m b e n a k , p i t a r e k a m a n a t a u p e n y i m p a n e l e k t r o n i k l a i n n y a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , t r a n s a k s i j a s a t i d a k p e r l u m e l i b a t k a n p r o d u s e n d a n k o n s u m e n s e c a r a l a n g s u n g - s e b a g a i m a n a d i s y a r a t k a n o l e h H i l l .

S t e r n d a n H o e k m a n m e n g a j u k a n t i g a k r i t e r i a u n t u k m e m b e d a k a n b a r a n g d a n j a s a : ( O r i m w a d e , 1 9 8 9 : 4 0 7 )

1 . P r o d u k s i d a n k o n s u m s i j a s a h a r u s b e r s a m a a n s e d a n g k a n u n t u k b a r a n g t i d a k p e r l u d e m i k i a n .

2 . J a s a t i d a k b i s a d i s i m p a n s e m e n t a r a b a r a n g d a p a t .

3 . J a s a a d a l a h intangible s e d a n g k a n b a r a n g tangible.

K e t i a d a a n d e f i n i s i y a n g b a k u , d a n k e n y a t a a n b a h w a d a l a m p r a k t e k t a k j a r a n g d i j u m p a i k e s u l i t a n u n t u k m e m b e d a k a n b a r a n g d a n j a s a , m e n y e b a b k a n c a k u p a n j a s a b e r b e d a d a r i s a t u k e p e n e l i t i l a i n . S e m e n t a r a p i h a k m e m a s u k k a n utilities d a n k o n s t r u k s i k e d a l a m s e k t o r j a s a , s e d a n g k a n y a n g l a i n m e n g e l u a r k a n t r a n s p o r t a s i d a n k o m u n i k a s i . S e m e n t a r a i t u m e n u r u t O E C D j a s a - j a s a m e n c a k u p : ( i ) whole and retail trade, restaurants a n d hotels; ( i i ) transport, storage and communication; ( i i i ) finance, insurance, real estate and business services; ( i v ) public administration, defence community and personal; d a n ( v ) services (recreational & entertainment services).

M e n g i n g a t b e g i t u b e r a g a m n y a j a s a , a d a b a i k n y a u n t u k m e n g e l o m p o k k a n j a s a - j a s a m e n u r u t s i f a t n y a : .

1 . K e g i a t a n a n t a r a d a n k e g i a t a n a k h i r ( a n t a r a : s e b a g a i i n p u t d i d a l a m p r o s e s p r o d u k s i ; a k h i r : s e b a g a i o u t p u t y a n g l a n g s u n g d i g u n a k a n o l e h k o n s u m e n ) .

2 . J a s a f a k t o r d a n n o n - f a k t o r s e b a g a i m a n a p e n g e r t i a n d i d a l a m n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n .

3 . Jasa traded dan non-traded.

B e b e r a p a p e n g e l o m p o k a n l a i n m e n i t i k b e r a t k a n p a d a m a s u k t i d a k n y a "visible" services (travel, passenger fares dan other transportation); non-visible services (fees, royalties dan other services); d a n t r a n s f e r k e u n t u n g a n p e r u s a h a a n a s i n g . M e n u r u t L e e d a n N a y a , y a n g t e r a k h i r i n i t a k b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n ( R u g m a n , 1 9 8 7 : 6 5 8 - 6 1 ) .

L a l l m e n g e l o m p o k k a n j a s a - j a s a k e d a l a m l i m a k a t e g o r i m e n u r u t f u n g s i n y a , s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : ( L a l l , 1 9 8 6 : 1 2 3 )

2 3 1

Basri

1 . Shipping, transportation & communication services including freight charges, freight insurance and reinsurance, brokerage and data transmission (but excluding port and airport service charges).

2. Financial services, including banking, non-freight insurance and brokerage, accountancy, and various investment related services.

3 . Marketing services, including advertising, wholesaling and retailing.

4 . Technological services, including engineering and construction (both civil and industrial), patents, trademarks,, consultancy, repairs and similar functions.

5 . Commercial services, including franchising, leasing and chartering.

P e n g e l o m p o k a n y a n g m e n a r i k d i r u m u s k a n o l e h R i d d l e ( 1 9 8 6 ) d a l a m b e n t u k m a t r i k s . I a m e n g a i t k a n p e n g e l o m p o k a n i n i d e n g a n a l t e r n a t i f - a l t e r n a t i f s t r a t e g i u n t u k m e n g e m b a n g k a n s e k t o r j a s a d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l .

B. Teori Perdagangan Jasa

S e b a g a i m a n a b a r a n g , p r o d u k s i j a s a j u g a m e m e r l u k a n i n p u t m o d a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a , b a i k y a n g t r a m p i l m a u p u n y a n g k a s a r . S e b a g i a n p e n a w a r a n j a s a a m a t b e r g a n t u n g p a d a k a r u n i a s u m b e r a l a m , s e b a g a i m a n a j u g a p a d a b a r a n g - b a r a n g t e r t e n t u . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , j a s a j u g a a d a y a n g p a d a t m o d a l , p a d a t k a r y a , p a d a t t e n a g a t r a m p i l , d a n s e b a g a i n y a . L a n t a s , a p a k a h t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l y a n g t e l a h k i t a k e n a l d a p a t d i t e r a p k a n s e p e n u h n y a u n t u k p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a ? J a w a b a n n y a : y a d a n t i d a k .

D i k a t a k a n y a , k a r e n a p e r d a g a n g a n b e b e r a p a j a s a m e m e n u h i a s u m s i - a s u m s i k l a s i k y a n g m e l a n d a s i t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n b a r a n g , s e d a n g k a n j a s a - j a s a y a n g l a i n t i d a k . M i s a l n y a : k o n t r a k t o r - k o n t r a k t o r K o r e a m e n g u n g g u l i p e s a i n g - p e s a i n g d a r i n e g a r a m a j u k a r e n a m e r e k a b i s a m e m b a w a t e n a g a k e r j a , k h u s u s n y a p e k e r j a k a s a r - d a l a m h a l i n i t e r j a d i m o b i l i t a s f a k t o r p r o d u k s i t e n a g a k e r j a ; d a l a m k a s u s t u r i s m e , k o n s u m e n s a n g a t mobile, m e n d a t a n g i o b y e k j a s a ; s e b a l i k n y a m o b i l i t a s f a k t o r u n t u k j a s a f i n a n s i a l d a n a s u r a n s i s a n g a t t e r b a t a s .

D a r i g a m b a r a n d i a t a s j e l a s b a h w a d i p e r l u k a n k e h a t i - h a t i a n d a l a m m e n e r a p k a n t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l b a k u u n t u k j a s a . B e b e r a p a p e n g e l o m p o k a n y a n g t e l a h d i u t a r a k a n d a p a t m e m b a n t u u n t u k m e m p e r t a j a m t e r a n g k a a n a l i t i s , m e n g i n g a t k e n y a t a a n b e g i t u b e r a g a m n y a j a s a - j a s a d e n g a n k a r a k t e r i s t i k y a n g b e r b e d a - b e d a p u l a .

C. Beberapa Hasil Pengujian Empirik

D i c k & D i c k e , s e b a g a i m a n a d i k u t i p L a l l ( 1 9 8 6 ) , m e l a k u k a n b e r b a g a i r e g r e s i a t a s f a k t o r - f a k t o r p e n e n t u revealed comparative advantage ( R C A ) d a r i knowledge-intensive products and services, b a i k s e c a r a b e r s a m a a n m a u p u n

2 3 2


s e n d i r i - s e n d i r i . M e r e k a m e n g u j i a p a k a h n e g a r a - n e g a r a k a y a ( 1 8 n e g a r a O E C D ) m e m i l i k i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f d a l a m m e m a s o k j a s a - j a s a . D i g a r i s b a w a h i b a h w a p r o d u k s i j a s a t i d a k h a r u s s u a t u a k t i v i t a s y a n g p a d a t t e k n o l o g i a t a u k e t r a m p i l a n , m i s a l n y a t u r i s m e a t a u j a s a - j a s a d o m e s t i k y a n g t a k m e m e r l u k a n s u m b e r d a y a m o d a l m a n u s i a b e r k u a l i t a s t i n g g i . A d a p u n independent variables u t a m a y a n g d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n R C A d a r i j a s a - j a s a y a n g d i p r o d u k s i n e g a r a - n e g a r a O E C D a d a l a h : ( 1 ) a state-of-development variable, y a n g d i u k u r d e n g a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a ; ( 2 ) t i n g k a t k e c e n d e r u n g a n s u a t u n e g a r a d a l a m m e m b e l a n j a k a n u n t u k i l m u p e n g e t a h u a n d a n t e k n o l o g i , s e b a g a i u k u r a n d a r i k e t e r s e d i a a n productive knowledge; ( 3 ) p a n g s a p e k e r j a t r a m p i l d i d a l a m k e s e l u r u h a n p e k e r j a , s e b a g a i u k u r a n skill endowment; d a n ( 4 ) u k u r a n k e t e r s e d i a a n k a r u n i a - s u m b e r a l a m . V a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l l a i n y a n g j u g a d i p e r h i t u n g k a n a d a l a h l u a s p a s a r ( f a k t o r s k a l a ) , currency undervaluation d a n p e r a n a n p e n g e l u a r a n p e m e r i n t a h d i d a l a m O N P .

H i r s c h ( 1 9 8 9 ) m e n g g u n a k a n p e n d e k a t a n b i a y a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a p r o d u s e n d a n p r o d u s e n u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n tradability d a r i j a s a .

U m e r u p a k a n b i a y a t o t a l d a r i j a s a a t a s p e m a k a i y a n g d i p e c a h m e n j a d i d u a b a g i a n : b i a y a y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h p r o d u s e n (P) d a n o l e h p e m a k a i ( A ) . M a s i n g - m a s i n g b i a y a i n i d i b a g i l a g i k e d a l a m b i a y a y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n d a l a m i s o l a s i ( A ; d a n A , ) , y a k n i b i a y a y a n g d i t i m b u l k a n o l e h p r o d u s e n d a n p e m a k a i s e c a r a i n d e p e n d e n , d a n b i a y a y a n g m u n c u l k a l a k e d u a b e l a h p i h a k b e r i n t e r a k s i ( A ^ d a n A ^ ) . K e e m p a t k o m p o n e n b i a y a d i a s u m s i k a n n o n - n e g a t i f .

K e r a n g k a K o n s e p t u a l u n t u k M e n g e l o m p o k k a n P e r d a g a n g a n J a s a

t / = A , + A , + A , + A ^

F A C T O R S O F P R O D U C T I O N

D o n ' t M o v e M o v e

D o n ' t M o v e A c r o s s - t h e - B o r d e r T r a d e

F o r e i g n - E a r n i n g s

C O N S U M E R S

M o v e D o m e s t i c -E s t a b l i s h m e n t

T r a d e

T h i r d - C o u n t r y T r a d e

2 3 3

Basri

i n t e r d e p e n d e n d a n , d a l a m k e a d a a n p e r s a i n g a n s e m p u r n a , n i l a i U d i u p a y a k a n s e r e n d a h m u n g k i n ( m i n i m u m ) .

J i k a d i m i s a l k a n 5 s e b a g a i b a g i a n d a r i b i a y a U y a n g m u n c u l s e l a m a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a p r o d u s e n d a n p e m a k a i , m a k a S d a p a t d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

S = ^ ' 0 < S< 1

N i l a i 5 a k a n r e l a t i f k e c i l s e a n d a i n y a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a p r o d u s e n d a n p e m a k a i r e l a t i f m i n i m , d a n s e b a l i k n y a n i l a i S a k a n r e l a t i f b e s a r j i k a i n t e r a k s i k e d u a p i h a k r e l a t i f i n t e n s i f .

D e n g a n m e m a s u k k a n u n s u r 5 , m o d e l H e c k c s c h e r - O h l i n b o l e h j a d i t i d a k m a m p u m e n j e l a s k a n p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a - j a s a t e r t e n t u . S u a t u n e g a r a y a n g r e l a t i f labor abundant b e l u m t e n t u d a p a t b e r s a i n g d i p a s a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l , s e m t a - m a t a k a r e n a b i a y a i n t e r a k s i a n t a r a p r o d u s e n d a n p e m a k a i j a s a r e l a t i f t i n g g i . B i a y a i n t e r k a s i y a n g t i n g g i i n i p u l a y a n g m e n y e b a b k a n b a n y a k j a s a t e r g o l o n g k e d a l a m non-iradable. N a m u n , d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n t e k n o l o g i i n f o r m a s i , s e p e r t i T e l e x , F a x , T e l e v i d e o , d a n s e b a g a i n y a , m e n y e b a b k a n m a k i n b a n y a k j a s a y a n g tradable.

H i r s c h m e m a n f a a t k a n h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n o l e h K r a v i s u n t u k m e n g a p l i k a s i k a n m o d e l n y a . D a r i s t u d i i n i d i a m e n y i m p u l k a n b a h w a m e m a n g s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n j a s a k u r a n g tradable d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n b a r a n g . N a m u n i a m e n g g a r i s b a w a h i , b e r t o l a k d a r i d a t a K r a v i s t i d a k l a n t a s m e r u p a k a n b u k t i k o n k l u s i f d a r i h i p o t e s i s service 'poor tradable. H a l i n i d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a d a t a K r a v i s m e n c a k u p j u g a j a s a - j a s a non-tradable; s e r t a k e n y a t a a n b a h w a p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a - j a s a s a n g a t d i p r o t e k s i .

P e n d e k a t a n b i a y a t r a n s a k s i d i g u n a k a n o l e h R u g m a n ( 1 9 8 7 ) u n t u k m e n j e l a s k a n p e r i l a k u p e r u s a h a a n - p e r u s a h a a n m u l t i n a s i o n a l d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a . R u g m a n m e n y a d a r i b a h w a p e n e l i t i a n t e n t a n g p e r d a g a n g a n j a s a i n t r a p e r u s a h a a n s e b a g a i m a n a y a n g k e r a p d i j u m p a i d a l a m p r a k t e k p e r u s a h a a n m u l t i n a s i o n a l r e l a t i f s u l i t , m e n g i n g a t d a t a - d a t a y a n g t e r s e d i a s a n g a t l a n g k a . I a l e b i h m e n e k a n k a n p a d a s a r a n - s a r a n b a g i u p a y a p e n e l i t i a n l e b i h l a n j u t .

I V . K I N E R J A P E R D A G A N G A N S E B A G A I I N D I K A T O R K E U N G G U L A N K O M P A R A T I F

P a d a d a s a r n y a p e r d a g a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l t e r j a d i k a r e n a d u a a l a s a n u t a m a ( K r u g m a n d a n O b s t f e l d , 1 9 9 1 ) . Pertama, n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r d a g a n g k a r e n a m e r e k a b e r b e d a s a t u s a m a l a i n . S e t i a p n e g a r a d a p a t m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n d e n g a n m e l a k u k a n s e s u a t u y a n g r e l a t i f l e b i h b a i k . Kedua, n e g a r a - n e g a r a m e l a k u k a n p e r d a g a n g a n d e n g a n t u j u a n m e n c a p a i s k a l a e k o n o m i d a l a m

234


p r o d u k s i . M a k s u d n y a , j i k a s e t i a p n e g a r a h a n y a m e m p r o d u k s i s e j u m l a h b a r a n g t e r t e n t u , m e r e k a d a p a t m e n g h a s i l k a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g t e r s e b u t d e n g a n s k a l a y a n g l e b i h b e s a r d a n k a r e n a n y a l e b i h e f i s i e n j i k a d i b a n d i n g k a n k a l a u n e g a r a t e r s e b u t m e m p r o d u k s i s e g a l a j e n i s b a r a n g . P o l a - p o l a p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a y a n g t e r j a d i m e n c e r m i n k a n p e r p a d u a n d a r i k e d u a m o t i f i n i .

P e n j e l a s a n s e c a r a t e o r e t i s d a r i k e d u a m o t i f d i a t a s d a p a t d i p e r o l e h d a r i t e o r i p e r d a g a n g a n k l a s i k i n t e r n a s i o n a l , d i a n t a r a n y a : t e o r i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f D a v i d R i c a r d o d a n t e o r i p r o p o r s i f a k t o r H e c k s c h e r - O h l i n .

T e o r i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f m e n g u t a r a k a n , s e b a i k n y a s u a t u n e g a r a b e r s p e s i a l i s a s i d a n m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g d i m a n a n e g a r a t e r s e b u t m e m i l i k i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f . A r t i n y a , d a l a m k o n t e k s b i a y a , s e t i a p n e g a r a a k a n m e m p e r o l e h k e u n t u n g a n j i k a m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g b i a y a p r o d u k s i n y a r e l a t i f l e b i h r e n d a h d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a l a i n . A t a u d a p a t p u l a d i a r t i k a n : p r o d u k t i v i t a s r e l a t i f y a n g d i m i l i k i o l e h n e g a r a t e r s e b u t d a l a m m e m p r o d u k s i b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g d i e k s p o r a d a l a h y a n g p a l i n g t i n g g i .

T e o r i p r o p o r s i f a k t o r y a n g d i a j u k a n o l e h H e c k s c h e r d a n O h l i n l e b i h m e n i t i k b e r a t k a n k e p a d a p r o p o r s i f a k t o r y a n g d i m i l i k i o l e h s u a t u n e g a r a s e b a g a i t i t i k t o l a k t e r j a d i n y a p e r d a g a n g a n . T e o r i i n i m e n g e m u k a k a n , s e t i a p n e g a r a h e n d a k n y a m e l a k u k a n s p e s i a l i s a s i d a n m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g s e s u a i d e n g a n k e m e l i m p a h a n k a r u n i a s u m b e r y a n g d i m i l i k i n y a . N e g a r a y a n g m e m i l i k i k e m e l i m p a h a n f a k t o r t e n a g a k e r j a h e n d a k n y a m e l a k u k a n s p e s i a l i s a s i d a n m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g p r o d u k s i n y a b e r s i f a t p a d a t k a r y a , s e m e n t a r a i t u n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g m e m i l i k i k e m e l i m p a h a n f a k t o r m o d a l h e n d a k n y a m e l a k u k a n s p e s i a l i s a s i p r o d u k s i d a n m e n g e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g p r o d u k s i n y a b e r s i f a t p a d a t m o d a l .

M a s a l a h y a n g s e g e r a m e n g h a d a n g k a l a k i t a a k a n m e n g a p l i k a s i k a n t e o r i - t e o r i d i a t a s a d a l a h : ( 1 ) b a g a i m a n a m e n g o p e r a s i o n a l i s a s i k a n k o n s e p - k o n s e p a b s t r a k s e p e r t i h a r g a r e l a t i f s e b a g a i c e r m i n a n d a r i b i a y a r e l a t i f d a n k e m e l i m p a h a n f a k t o r r e l a t i f y a n g l e b i h t e r i n c i ; d a n ( 2 ) k e t e r s e d i a a n d a n k e a k u r a t a n d a t a . M a s a l a h n y a a k a n s e m a k i n p a n j a n g j i k a m o d e l y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h n x n x n, b u k a n 2 x 2 x 2 .

T e o r i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f R i c a r d i a n d a n H e c k s c h e r - O h l i n m e n j e l a s k a n k e u n t u n g a n p e r d a g a n g a n (gains from trade) d e n g a n m e m b a n d i n g k a n p r o d u k s i d a n h a r g a p a d a k e a d a a n a u t a r k i d a n s e t e l a h p e r d a g a n g a n . M a s a l a h n y a , b a g a i m a n a m e m p e r o l e h d a t a h a r g a a u t a r k i d a l a m k e a d a a n s u a t u n e g a r a t e l a h m e l a k u k a n p e r d a g a n g a n ? S e s u a t u y a n g h a m p i r m u s t a h i l u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h n y a . M a s a l a h k e d u a l e b i h s e r i u s d i h a d a p i d i N S B p a d a u m u m n y a , d i m a n a d a t a m a s i h a m a t l a n g k a .

D a y a s a i n g e k s p o r j u g a b u k a n s e m a t a - m a t a d i t e n t u k a n o l e h k e u n g g u l a n b i a y a ( h a r g a ) t e t a p i j u g a o l e h k e c e p a t a n d a n r e l i a b i l i t a s p e n g i r i m a n , k u a l i t a s p r o d u k , p e r s y a r a t a n k r e d i r , d a n p e r s y a r a t a n m a t a u a n g , y a n g k e s e m u a n y a

235

Basri

m e m p e n g a r u h i k e m a m p u a n s u a t u n e g a r a m e n g a m a n k a n e k s p o r n y a d a r i p a r a p e s a i n g ( L i m , e t . a l . , 1 9 8 8 : 2 8 9 )

U n t u k m e n g a t a s i p e r s o a l a n - p e r s o a l a n d i a t a s , s e j u m l a h p e n e l i t i m e n g g u n a k a n u k u r a n - u k u r a n t a k l a n g s u n g (indirect measures) s e b a g a i p r o k s i d a y a s a i n g . P a d a u m u m n y a m e r e k a m e n g g u n a k a n k i n e r j a e k s p o r (export performance) s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f . S u d a h b a r a n g t e n t u , i n d i k a t o r - i n d i k a t o r i n i t i d a k s e p e n u h n y a a k u r a t , m e n g i n g a t b a h w a k i n e r j a e k s p o r d i p e n g a r u h i p u l a o l e h f a k t o r - f a k t o r k e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h d a n d i s t o r s i p a s a r l a i n n y a . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , h a s i l p e r h i t u n g a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m e t o d e i n i h a r u s d i t a f s i r k a n d e n g a n h a t i - h a t i .

Constant-market-share analysis ( C M S A ) d a n Revealed comparative advantage ( R C A ) m e r u p a k a n m e t o d e - m e t o d e y a n g k e r a p d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g u k u r k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f . M e s k i p u n s u d a h c u k u p l a m a d i p e r k e n a l k a n , p e n g g u n a a n k e d u a m e t o d e i n i d i I n d o n e s i a m a s i h k u r a n g d i k e n a l . U n t u k p e n j e l a s a n b e r b a g a i m e t o d e p e n g u k u r a n d a y a s a i n g s e c a r a r i n g k a s t a p i m e n y e l u r u h , l i h a t J o h n s ( 1 9 8 5 ) .

M e n g i n g a t m a s i n g - m a s i n g m e t o d e m e n g a n d u n g b e b e r a p a k e l e m a h a n , k i r a n y a a k a n l e b i h b e r m a n f a a t j i k a d i g u n a k a n b e r s a m a a n s e h i n g g a s a l i n g m e l e n g k a p i . A k a n l e b i h b a i k l a g i j i k a d i d u k u n g p u l a o l e h m e t o d e - m e t o d e p e r h i t u n g a n l a i n n y a s e p e r t i I n d e k s k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r . I n d e k s s p e s i a l i s a s i p e r d a g a n g a n ( I S P ) , d a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n .

A. Constant-Market-Share Analysis

E k s p o r s u a t u n e g a r a b i s a m e n i n g k a t l e b i h c e p a t ( a t a u l e b i h l a m b a t ) d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a e k s p o r d u n i a d i s e b a b k a n o l e h t i g a a l a s a n u t a m a :

(\)Efek komposisi komoditi. E k s p o r m u n g k i n t e r k o n s e n t r a s i p a d a k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i y a n g p e r m i n t a a n n y a r e l a t i f e l a s t i s a t a u i n e l a s t i s t e r h a d a p p e n d a p a t a n . H a l i n i s e j a l a n d e n g a n Engel's Effects.

(2) Efek distribusi pasar. E k s p o r m u n g k i n t e r a r a h k e p a s a r - p a s a r y a n g b e r k e m b a n g l e b i h p e s a t ( l e b i h l a m b a t ) d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a d u n i a .

( 3 ) Efek daya saing. E k s p o r m u n g k i n l e b i h d a p a t ( k u r a n g d a p a t ) b e r s a i n g d e n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a p e n g e k s p o r l a i n , b a i k k a r e n a p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s n y a l e b i h t i n g g i ( l e b i h r e n d a h ) a t a u k a r e n a undervaluation ( o z ' e r v a / t / a r / o / i ) m a t a u a n g d o m e s t i k .

M e t o d e C M S A m e m u n g k i n k a n d i l a k u k a n n y a p e m i s a h a n d a r i k e t i g a s u m b e r p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r , y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a m e n g h a s i l k a n i m p l i k a s i - i m p l i k a s i k e b i j a k a n b a g i k e g i a t a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r a t a u s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r .

236


1. Kerangka Teoretis

P e r m i n t a a n u n t u k e k s p o r d i s u a t u p a s a r d a r i d u a s u m b e r p e n a w a r a n b i s a d i j e l a s k a n d e n g a n h u b u n g a n b e r i k u t :

9 2

' P f

( 1 )

y a n g m a n a d a n / ? , m a s i n g - m a s i n g a d a l a h k u a n t i t a s y a n g d i j u a l d a n h a r g a k o m o d i t i d a r i s u m b e r p e n a w a r a n k e - i . H u b u n g a n i n i d i k e n a l s e b a g a i b e n t u k ^asat iaxi konsep elasticity of substitution.

J i k a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) d i k a l i k a n d e n g a n p f p 2 - m a k a d i p e r o l c h :

9 i A i ^

32 P i

( P i )

P i

Pi. P i ( 2 )

P e r s a m a a n ( 2 ) d a p a t d i m a n i p u l a s i k a n u n t u k m e m p e r o l e h p a n g s a e k s p o r s u a t u n e g a r a d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a , s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

P i 9 i

P i 3 1 + P i 3 i 1 +

P l 3 i \

P i 3 1 - I

1 + P l 3 i

P i 3 i f i . P i / P i )

P i P i

Pi. P i

- i

- 1

( 3 )

( 4 )

( 5 )

( 6 )

J i k a s u b s k r i p 1 m e n y a t a k a n n e g a r a 1 d a n s u b s k r i p 2 m e n y a t a k a n rest of the world, m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 6 ) m e n u n j u k k a n p a n g s a e k s p o r n e g a r a 1 d a l a m e k s p o r d u n i a t i d a k a k a n b e r u b a h ( k o n s t a n ) k e c u a l i j i k a t e r j a d i p e r u b a h a n d a l a m h a r g a r e l a t i f , p j p 2 . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n t a m p a k b a h w a h a r g a r e l a t i f m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u f a k t o r k u n c i d a l a m p e r s a i n g a n , y a n g p a d a g i l i r a n n y a a k a n m e n e n t u k a n p o s i s i d a n p e r a n a n e k s p o r s u a t u n e g a r a d i p a s a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l .

2 . Perumusan

U n t u k m e l a k u k a n p e r h i t u n g a n d e n g a n p r o s e d u r C M S A , t e r l e b i h d a h u l u p e r l u u n t u k m e n d e f i n i s i k a n l a m b a n g - l a m b a n g ( n o t a s i ) b e r i k u t i n i :

2 3 7

http://Pi3ifi.Pi/Pi

Basri

X. = N i l a i e k s p o r n e g a r a Z p e r i o d e 1 ;

X.' = N i l a i e k s p o r n e g a r a Z p e r i o d e 2 ;

r = P e r s e n t a s e p e r u b a h a n e k s p o r d u n i a d a r i p e r i o d e 1 k e p e r i o d e 2 ;

i = S u b s k r i p ( 1 , 2 , . . . , « ) y a n g m e n g a c u k e p a d a p e n g e l o m p o k a n k o m o d i t i , m i s a l n y a b e r d a s a r k a n Standard International Trade Classification ( S I T C ) ;

= S u b s k r i p ( 1 , 2 , . . , / I ) y a n g m e n g a c u k e p a d a n e g a r a t u j u a n e k s p o r .

M a k a , m i s a l n y a , Xjj m e n u n j u k k a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i i d a r i n e g a r a Z k e n e g a r a j p a d a p e r i o d e 1 ; r,- d a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g m e n u n j u k k a n p e r s e n t a s e p e r u b a h a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i i d u n i a k e s e l u r u h p a s a r a n d u n i a d a n k e p a s a r ; d a r i p e r i o d e 1 k e p e r i o d e 2 .

B e r t o l a k d a r i d e f i n i s i - d e f i n i s i d i a t a s , k i n i d a p a t d i b u a t b e b e r a p a p e r u m u s a n b e r i k u t :

j j 0)

t ; ( 8 )

( s u b s k r i p t i t i k ( . ) m e n c e r m i n k a n t o t a l )

S e l a n j u t n y a , n i l a i e k s p o r t o t a l n e g a r a Z p a d a p e r i o d e 1 d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t

' j ' 7 ( 9 )

U n t u k m e m p e r m u d a h p e m a h a m a n , a n g g a p l a h h a n y a a d a s a t u j e n i s b a r a n g d a n s a t u n e g a r a t u j u a n e k s p o r . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , k a l a u n e g a r a Z i n g i n m e m p e r t a h a n k a n p a n g s a p a s a r n y a . m a k a e k s p o r n e g a r a Z h a r u s m e n i n g k a t s e b e s a r rX.

X'..-X..= rX..+ (X.'. - X . . - rX . . ) ( 1 0 )

P e r u m u s a n u m u m s e p e r t i p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 0 ) d a p a t p u l a d i p e r l a k u k a n u n t u k s e t i a p k o m o d i t i

X;.-X,. = r , . A , . . + (X;.-X-.- r,Xi.) (H)

D e n g a n m e l a k u k a n m a n i p u l a s i s e p e r l u n y a , m a k a d i p e r o l e h

X/-X;j=r.jX-^{X;j-X,j-r,jX,j) ( i 2 )

238


y a n g j i k a d i a g r e g a s i k a n a k h i r n y a m e n g h a s i l k a n

i j i j ( 1 3 )

= rX..+ J ^ { r . - r ) X ^ . ^ ^ ^ { r ; j - r;)Xi^

( 1 ) ( 2 ) ' ' ( 3 )

' ' ( 4 ) ' ' ' ' I d e n t i t a s ( 1 4 ) m e n c e r m i n k a n a n a l i s i s " t i g a t i n g k a t " d i m a n a

p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r n e g a r a Z d i p e c a h m e n j a d i e m p a t p e n y e b a b : ( 1 ) k e n a i k a n e k s p o r d u n i a ; ( 2 ) k o m p o s i s i k o m o d i t i e k s p o r n e g a r a Z ; ( 3 ) d i s t r i b u s i n e g a r a t u j u a n e k s p o r n e g a r a Z ; d a n ( 4 ) r e s i d u a l y a n g m e n c e r m i n k a n p e r b e d a a n a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r a k t u a l d a n p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g a k a n t e r j a d i j i k a n e g a r a Z m e m p e r t a h a n k a n p a n g s a e k s p o r n y a d i p a s a r a n d u n i a u n t u k s e t i a p k o m o d i t i . Y a n g t e r a k h i r m e n c e r m i n k a n d a y a s a i n g s u a t u k o m o d i t i d i p a s a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l . |

S e l a i n b e b e r a p a k e u n g g u l a n y a n g d i m i l i k i o l e h m e t o d e C M S A s e p e r t i d a p a t m e n d e k o m p o s i s i k a n s u m b e r - s u m b e r p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d a n m e n a n g k a p d e n g a n l e b i h c e r m a t p o t e n s i d a y a s a i n g s u a t u k o m o d i t i , m e t o d e i n i m e m i l i k i d u a k e l e m a h a n . K e l e m a h a n p e r t a m a a d a l a h m e n g a b a i k a n p e r u b a h a n p a n g s a p a s a r s e l a m a p e r i o d e o b s e r v a s i . P e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n s e p e r t i p e n g e n a l a n b a r a n g - b a r a n g b a r u d a n t u j u a n e k s p o r b a r u s e l a m a s e l a n g k u r u n w a k t u p e n e l i t i a n t i d a k d i p e r h i t u n g k a n . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , s e m a k i n p a n j a n g p e r i o d e o b s e r v a s i s e m a k i n b e s a r p u l a d i s t o r s i y a n g b a k a l t e r j a d i . K e d u a , M e t o d e C M S A b i a s a n y a d i h i t u n g b e r d a s a r k a n n i l a i , b u k a n k u a n t u m / v o l u m e . S e b a g a i m a n a t e l a h d i s i n g g u n g s e b e l u m n y a , p a n g s a p a s a r h a n y a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a h a r g a r e l a t i f . K a r e n a n y a , p e n i n g k a t a n p a n g s a n i l a i (value share) s u a t u n e g a r a t i d a k s e l a l u b e r a r t i b a h w a h a r g a r e l a t i f e k s p o r n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n . K e a d a a n d i a t a s h a n y a a k a n t e r j a d i a n d a i k a n elasticity of substitution u n t u k d a e r a h t u j u a n a n t a r a n e g a r a p e n g e k s p o r d a n n e g a r a s a i n g a n n y a l e b i h b e s a r d a r i s a t u .

B. Revealed Comparative Advantage

P e n g u k u r a n R C A d i k e m b a n g k a n p e r t a m a k a l i o l e h B a l a s s a ( 1 9 6 . 5 ) . M e t o d e i n i m e n g u k u r k i n e r j a e k s p o r s u a t u k o m o d i t i d a r i s u a t u n e g a r a d e n g a n m e n g e v a l u a s i p e r a n a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i t e r t e n t u d a l a m e k s p o r t o t a l s u a t u n e g a r a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p a n g s a k o m o d i t a s t e r s e b u t d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n d u n i a .

P e n g u k u r a n R C A d a p a t d i k e m b a n g k a n m e n j a d i p e n g u k u r a n y a n g b e r s i f a t d i n a m i s d e n g a n m e m a s u k k a n u n s u r w a k t u , s e h i n g g a d a p a t m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n p a n g s a r e l a t i f n y a d a r i w a k t u k e w a k t u .

2 3 9

Basri

P e r u m u s a n u m u m R C A a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

x-./x.-C= — 2 L

j q , ^ / j r . ^

d i m a n a

c = A n g k a R C A ;

X;j = N i l a i e k s p o r k o m o d i t i / n e g a r a ; ;

X.j = N i l a i e k s p o r t o t a l n e g a r a j ;

w — N i l a i e k s p o r k o m o d i t i i d u n i a ; d a n

x „ . = N i l a i e k s p o r t o t a l d u n i a .

D e n g a n m e m b a n d i n g k a n a n g k a R C A a n t a r a d u a w a k t u , m a k a d i p e r o l e h i n d e k s R C A . I n d e k s i n i m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n R C A d a r i w a k t u k e w a k t u . I n d e k s y a n g l e b i h k e c i l d a r i s a t u m e n u n j u k k a n t e r j a d i p e n u r u n a n R C A . A r t i n y a , k i n e r j a e k s p o r k o m o d i t i ; d a r i n e g a r a j m e n g a l a m i k e m u n d u r a n r e l a t i f d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k i n e r j a e k s p o r r a t a - r a t a d u n i a . S e b a l i k n y a , i n d e k s y a n g l e b i h b e s a r d a r i s a t u m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a e k s p o r k o m o d i t i / d a r i n e g a r a ; m e n i n g k a t r e l a t i f d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a d u n i a , s e h i n g g a p a n g s a n y a d i p a s a r a n d u n i a m e n i n g k a t .

D e n g a n m e l a k u k a n p e n y e d e r h a n a a n n o t a s i , y a k n i Xjj IX .j = Xjj d a n Xj,,.! X = X j ^ , m a k a i n d e k s R C A d a p a t d i r u m u s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t ,

• j c ' - /xf J _ IJ IW

x'-Vx-'-'

d i m a n a x' m e n u n j u k k a n a n g k a R C A p a d a t a h u n ( p e r i o d e ) t e r t e n t u , d a n x' ' m e n u n j u k k a n a n g k a R C A p a d a t a h u n ( p e r i o d e ) s e b e l u m n y a . B c s a r a n x''' i n i d a p a t p u l a d i j a d i k a n s e b a g a i t a h u n d a s a r .

C. Konsentrasi Pasar

K r i t e r i a k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r , s e l a i n s e p e r t i y a n g d i h a s i l k a n d a r i d e k o m p o s i s i C M S A , d a p a t p u l a d i h i t u n g s e c a r a t e r s e n d i r i . N a m u n , t u j u a n d a r i k r i t e r i a k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r y a n g h e n d a k d i h i t u n g d i s i n i l e b i h d i t i t i k b e r a t k a n k e p a d a t u j u a n u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i d e r a j a t k e s t a b i l a n p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r s u a t u k o m o d i t i .

L a n d a s a n d a l a m m e n e n t u k a n t i n g k a t k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r s u a t u k o m o d i t i e k s p o r a d a l a h b e s a r n y a d a m p a k y a n g d i a k i b a t k a n o l e h a d a n y a g a n g g u a n (disturbance) t e r h a d a p k e s t a b i l a n p e n e r i m a a n e k s p o r . J i k a t e r j a d i g a n g g u a n y a n g r e l a t i f k e c i l s a j a a k a n s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i v o l u m e / n i l a i e k s p o r , m a k a d i k a t a k a n b a h w a k o m o d i t i t e r s e b u t r e l a t i f s a n g a t t e r g a n t u n g / t e r k o n s e n t r a s i

240

Perkembangan Terbaru Teori Perdagangan Intemasionetl

p a d a s u a t u a t a u b e b e r a p a p a s a r t e r t e n t u .

M e s k i p u n t i d a k s e l a l u , s e m a k i n t e r k o n s e n t r a s i e k s p o r s u a t u k o m o d i t i k e p a d a b e b e r a p a n e g a r a t u j u a n , m a k a s e m a k i n b e s a r k e r e n t a n a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t i y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n t e r h a d a p g a n g g u a n - g a n g g u a n y a n g t e r j a d i .

I n t e n s i t a s p e m u s a t a n n e g a r a t u j u a n d a p a t d i h i t u n g d e n g a n b e r b a g a i m e t o d e . H i r s c h m a n ( 1 9 4 5 ) m e r u p a k a n p e l o p o r n y a . M e t o d e y a n g d i p e r k e n a l k a n o l e h n y a d i k e n a l s e b a g a i Gini-Hirschman Coefficient of Concentration. M e t o d e - m e t o d e l a i n t a k j a u h b e r a n j a k d a r i p e r u m u s a n H i r s c h m a n .

y a n g m a n a K a d a l a h k o e f i s i e n k o n s e n t r a s i p a s a r a t a u A n g k a I n d e k s K o n s e n t r a s i P a s a r ( A I K P ) , Xij a d a l a h n i l a i e k s p o r k o m o d i t i i k e n e g a r a j , d a n Y ; a d a l a h n i l a i e k s p o r t o t a l k o m o d i t i /.

A n g k a t e r t i n g g i d a r i k o e f i s i e n i n i a d a l a h 1 , y a k n i a p a b i l a e k s p o r k o m o d i t i i h a n y a t e r t u j u k e p a d a s a t u n e g a r a s a j a . A n g k a t e r e n d a h t a k d a p a t d i t e n t u k a n d e n g a n p a s t i , b e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a b a n y a k n y a n e g a r a t u j u a n e k s p o r . A n g k a t e r e n d a h a k a n t e r j a d i k a l a u p a n g s a s e t i a p n e g a r a t u j u a n p e r s i s s a m a , y a n g b e s a r n y a l / N ( N = j u m l a h n e g a r a t u j u a n ) . A n d a i k a n t e r d a p a t 2 5 n e g a r a t u j u a n , m a k a a n g k a t e r e n d a h a d a l a h 0 , 2 . U n t u k a l a s a n k e n y a m a n a n d a l a m m e n g a n a l i s i s , b i a s a n y a a n g k a k o e f i s i e n y a n g d i p e r o l e h d i k a l i k a n d e n g a n 1 0 0 . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n k o e f i s i e n k o n s e n t r a s i n e g a r a t u j u a n d a l a m c o n t o h i n i b e r k i s a r a n t a r a 2 s a m p a i 1 0 0 .

D. Identifikasi Komoditi Ekspor Indonesia yang Berpotensi

B e r i k u t a d a l a h p e n e r a p a n d a r i k r i t e r i a - k r i t e r i a y a n g t e l a h d i j a b a r k a n p a d a b a g i a n s e b e l u m n y a , b e r t u j u a n u n t u k m e n g i d e n t i f i k a s i k o m o d i t i e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a y a n g m e m i l i k i p o t e n s i ( s e b a g a i p r o k s i d a r i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f ) . P e n g i d e n t i f i k a s i a n d i d a s a r k a n k e p a d a b e b e r a p a k r i t e r i a y a n g d i t e r a p k a n s e c a r a g a b u n g a n d a n s a l i n g m e l e n g k a p i . H a l i n i d i t e m p u h d e n g a n p e r t i m b a n g a n , t a k s a t u p u n k r i t e r i a y a n g - k a l a u d i g u n a k a n s e c a r a t u n g g a l - d a p a t d e n g a n s e m p u r n a m e n e n t u k a n a p a k a h s u a t u k o m o d i t i e k s p o r m e m i l i k i p o t e n s i t i n g g i .

P e r h i t u n g a n d i d a s a r k a n p a d a d a t a e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u 1 9 8 0 - 8 9 d a n d a t a d u n i a 1 9 8 0 - 8 8 . H a s i l t e r i n c i d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 3 .

241

Basri

T a b e l 3 S e n a r a i K o m o d i t i S I T C 3 D i j i t y a n g M e m i l i k i K e u n g g u l a n K o m p a r a t i f

PRIMER

001 - ARI 246 - ARI 111 - ARI 248 - ARI 223 - ARI 273 - MRI 232 - ARI 277 - MRI 245 - ARI 424 - ARI

A4AMI I F A K T I i n

514- PCI(TI) 821 - ULI 522- PCI (TI) 831 - ULI 532 - HOI 842 - ULI 562-PCICTI) 843 - ULI 572- PCI (TI) 844 - ULI 591 - PCICTI) 845 - ULI

8 4 8 - IJ l 1

611 - ARI 851 - ULI 634 - ARI 885- PCI (TI) 635 - ARI 893 - ULI 641 - HCI 894 - ULI 642 - HCI 896 - HCI 652 - ULI 8 9 7 - H C I 653 - ULI 656 - ULI 971 - ? 658 - ULI 659 - ULI

Catatan: ARI = Agricultural resource Intensive (11) MRI = Mineral resource Intensive (2) ULI = Unskilled labor Intensive (15) PCI = Physical capital Intensive (6) (TI = Technology Intensive) HCI - Human capital Intensive (5) ? Tak terklaslfikaslkan (1)

(angka dl dalam kurung menunjukkan jumlah.)

242


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H i l l , T . P . " O n G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s , " The Review of Income and Wealth, 2 3 ( D e s e m b e r , 1 9 7 7 ) , 3 1 5 - 3 8 .

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J o h n s , R . A . International Trade Theories and the Evolving International Economy, N e w Y o r k : S t . M a r t i n ' s P r e s s , 1 9 8 5 .

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«

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