Planning & Control van Planning & Control van Research & Development Research & Development

projectenprojecten

Mission Impossible?Mission Impossible?

Ir Hans Minnee

Wat gaan we doen vandaagWat gaan we doen vandaag(en voortaan ?)(en voortaan ?)

StellingenStellingen Wat is project planning & controlWat is project planning & control 3 Cases R&D projecten3 Cases R&D projecten Wat leren we ervanWat leren we ervan Wat doe je ermee in je eigen projectWat doe je ermee in je eigen project

StellingenStellingen

The beauty of NOT planning is…… The beauty of NOT planning is……

that failure comes as a total surprise, that failure comes as a total surprise, instead ofinstead of

being preceeded by weeks of being preceeded by weeks of worrying and agony!worrying and agony!

StellingenStellingen

R & D is een ontdekkingsreis:R & D is een ontdekkingsreis: Je weet niet waar je uitkomtJe weet niet waar je uitkomt Je weet niet hoe lang het duurtJe weet niet hoe lang het duurt

Het heeft dus geen zin om dat te plannen!Het heeft dus geen zin om dat te plannen!

StellingenStellingen

Failure to PlanFailure to Plan

==

Plan to Fail!Plan to Fail!

Beter een vaag plan Beter een vaag plan

dan helemaal geen plandan helemaal geen plan

Wat is Wat is PlanningPlanning van een project van een project Een meetbaar resultaat van het project doel (Scope) Een meetbaar resultaat van het project doel (Scope)

omschrijven en vertalen & opdelen naar concrete omschrijven en vertalen & opdelen naar concrete activiteiten (Work Breakdown Structure) en + activiteiten (Work Breakdown Structure) en + leveringen (Deliverables) die naar het doel leiden.leveringen (Deliverables) die naar het doel leiden.

Logische activiteiten volgorde in WBS aangeven en Logische activiteiten volgorde in WBS aangeven en in de tijd zetten (van laatste naar eerste) en in een in de tijd zetten (van laatste naar eerste) en in een ”netwerk” (parallele en serieele verbanden)”netwerk” (parallele en serieele verbanden)

Aan activiteiten kosten en uren toewijzen (budget)Aan activiteiten kosten en uren toewijzen (budget) Een team formeren met juiste capaciteiten Een team formeren met juiste capaciteiten

(kwalitatief + kwantitatief) en koppelen aan (kwalitatief + kwantitatief) en koppelen aan activiteiten (Organisation Breakdown Structure)activiteiten (Organisation Breakdown Structure)

Afspraken maken / bevestigen met klant, team en Afspraken maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden

Identificeer risico´s en heb daarvoor alternatieven Identificeer risico´s en heb daarvoor alternatieven

Wat is Wat is ControlControl van een project van een project

Regelmatig activiteiten meten qua voortgang Regelmatig activiteiten meten qua voortgang zowel op tijd en op budget (naast performance)zowel op tijd en op budget (naast performance)

Vraag je als team af: gaan we zo de eindstreep Vraag je als team af: gaan we zo de eindstreep halen qua performance, tijd en geld en wat zijn halen qua performance, tijd en geld en wat zijn de bottlenecks (Kritieke Pad) in netwerk en de de bottlenecks (Kritieke Pad) in netwerk en de risico’srisico’s

Analyseer oorzaak van vertraging en Analyseer oorzaak van vertraging en budgetoverschrijding ….en leer er van!budgetoverschrijding ….en leer er van!

Stuur bij door andere oplossingen en nieuwe / Stuur bij door andere oplossingen en nieuwe / betere afspraken te maken / bevestigen met betere afspraken te maken / bevestigen met klant, team en leveranciers + overige klant, team en leveranciers + overige belanghebbenden. belanghebbenden.

Summary Planning & ControlSummary Planning & Control

volg de Demming circle:volg de Demming circle:

Plan => Do => Check => ActPlan => Do => Check => Act

P

DC

A P

Case 1 Thermoplastic Airbus A340 Case 1 Thermoplastic Airbus A340 J-Nose wing leading edgeJ-Nose wing leading edge

What is a ‘J-nose’?What is a ‘J-nose’?

’J-nose’

wing torsion boxslat access panel

photo Airbus

Fokker Thermoplastics R&D, Fokker Thermoplastics R&D, Technology status, 1998Technology status, 1998

Press-forming: in production statusPress-forming: in production status Resistance Welding: proven on a Resistance Welding: proven on a

demonstrator part, ready for industrializationdemonstrator part, ready for industrialization Consolidation technology: R&D phaseConsolidation technology: R&D phase

Next step forward:Next step forward:full assembly on a series applicationfull assembly on a series applicationcustomer: British Aerospace, A340-500/600customer: British Aerospace, A340-500/600

Results of the first meeting with Results of the first meeting with Airbus (AUK / BAe)Airbus (AUK / BAe)

potential for a business case:potential for a business case: Airbus / British Aerospace designAirbus / British Aerospace design Fokker production technologyFokker production technology Ten Cate materialTen Cate material

good chemistry good chemistry between people involvedbetween people involved new team leader new team leader at Airbus, willing to pick up a challengeat Airbus, willing to pick up a challenge agreement on a phased study with:agreement on a phased study with:

a 1:1 prototypea 1:1 prototype calculations to support a business casecalculations to support a business case

Business case J-noseBusiness case J-nose

$

weight

aluminumthermoplastics

thermosets

-$

-w

QUESTIONQUESTION

What should AUK bear in mind when What should AUK bear in mind when considering a thermoplastic J-Nose rather considering a thermoplastic J-Nose rather than the prior (proven) metal version?than the prior (proven) metal version?

ANSWER:ANSWER:

Weight savings (20%) offset against:Weight savings (20%) offset against:costs per component basis and for costs per component basis and for

installation, on a per-aircraft basisinstallation, on a per-aircraft basisinvestments in design modifications, material investments in design modifications, material

specs, co-operation with Fokkerspecs, co-operation with Fokkerrisks: what if it doesn’t work or Fokker is late?risks: what if it doesn’t work or Fokker is late?

1.1. Demonstrate feasibility of application Demonstrate feasibility of application

/ Prototyping/ Prototyping

2.2. Submit and negotiate proposalSubmit and negotiate proposal

3.3. Full scale developmentFull scale development

PHASINGPHASING

Development of the Business Case: Development of the Business Case: Feasibility StudyFeasibility Study

AUK wants to reduce risks: agrees with AUK wants to reduce risks: agrees with Fokker that a demonstrator should be Fokker that a demonstrator should be developed and builtdeveloped and built

Is prepared to pay for a demonstrator Is prepared to pay for a demonstrator (Phase 2 of feasibility study)(Phase 2 of feasibility study)

The prototype:The prototype: 1.5 metres in length simplified prismatic cross-

section with prototype tools

Skin sheet,‘consolidated’ in an

ovenmould

Pressed ribs and stiffeners

mould

Ribs, welded onto skin sheet

mould

Problem definition: Delivery timeProblem definition: Delivery time

It is mid January. Phase 2It is mid January. Phase 2 will not be will not be complete till complete till the end of Maythe end of May. . MMain reason: ain reason: duration duration of of toolingtooling

AUK ‘NEEDDATE’ PROTO

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

PHASE 1

PHASE 2: demonstrator

GO/NO-GO

tools

production

For AUK, however, the go/no-go decision point is at the end of April, 1 month earlier. The proto absolutely has to be in Filton by then

QUESTION:

How to solve this?

Answer:Answer:

Make all Make all resources availableresources available, , including a full free hand for the including a full free hand for the best specialist within the companybest specialist within the company

Have a Have a dedicated Team in 1 placededicated Team in 1 place

Analyse Critical Path => tooling and process development

Start on proto tools at own expense, a month before finalisation of phase 1

Set up an exact planning and check/act continuously

A340-600 ‘J-nose’A340-600 ‘J-nose’prototype (1998)prototype (1998)

• AUK: ‘sounds like metal, AUK: ‘sounds like metal, must be good’must be good’

• operators: repair friendlyoperators: repair friendly

PHASINGPHASING

1.1. Demonstrate feasibility of Demonstrate feasibility of

application / Prototypingapplication / Prototyping

2.2. Submit and negotiate proposalSubmit and negotiate proposal

3.3. Full scale developmentFull scale development

Fokker Proposal to AUK : basic inputFokker Proposal to AUK : basic input Technical description: Technical description:

Design & fabrication conceptDesign & fabrication concept Calculation of costs:Calculation of costs:

Recurring costs (RC): per product, Recurring costs (RC): per product, with learning effect and inflationwith learning effect and inflation

Non-recurring costs (NRC): design, Non-recurring costs (NRC): design, tools (moulds), work preparationtools (moulds), work preparation

Completion time Planning:Completion time Planning: Best guess, based on previous Best guess, based on previous

projectsprojects

QUESTION:QUESTION:

What should Fokker Management What should Fokker Management take into account in the quotation take into account in the quotation to AUK?to AUK?

ANSWER: part of a PLAN!ANSWER: part of a PLAN! what is the ‘cost vs. price’? (price = cost + profit)what is the ‘cost vs. price’? (price = cost + profit) what total price is the customer (AUK) prepared to pay?what total price is the customer (AUK) prepared to pay? do we have the money to amortize the non-recurring costs & do we have the money to amortize the non-recurring costs &

capital investments?capital investments? can government provide assistance (development and can government provide assistance (development and

financing credit)?financing credit)? over how many aircraft to we do that (business case over how many aircraft to we do that (business case

analysis)?analysis)? what risks does Fokker incur and what bottlenecks are there what risks does Fokker incur and what bottlenecks are there

and what are the solutions?and what are the solutions? how familiar are we with the technology and how much development is needed?how familiar are we with the technology and how much development is needed? do we have the specialist people needed or can we train new people in time?do we have the specialist people needed or can we train new people in time? what is the likelihood of quality problems and too late delivery (penalties and loss of what is the likelihood of quality problems and too late delivery (penalties and loss of

reputation)?reputation)? is our materials partner (TCAC) reliable regarding their share?is our materials partner (TCAC) reliable regarding their share?

Risks, J-nose developmentRisks, J-nose development tight scheduletight schedule new customernew customer new technologynew technology data Airbus/BAe not on data Airbus/BAe not on

time, loads latetime, loads late

Why then the J-nose development?Why then the J-nose development?

Entry ticket to A380 => much Entry ticket to A380 => much bigger volumebigger volume

PHASINGPHASING

1.1. Demonstrate feasibility of Demonstrate feasibility of

application / Prototypingapplication / Prototyping

2.2. Submit and negotiate proposalSubmit and negotiate proposal

3.3. Full scale developmentFull scale development

Plan=>Do=>Plan=>Do=>Check:Check:Problem: material does not satisfy requirementsProblem: material does not satisfy requirements

During the design phase (the end of 1998) after TDuring the design phase (the end of 1998) after Ten Cateen Cate tests: tests:

the glass/PPS composite material proved not to satisfy the the glass/PPS composite material proved not to satisfy the strength requirements after prolonged exposure to moisture strength requirements after prolonged exposure to moisture and extremes of temperatures and extremes of temperatures

These test were never concluded in the pre-study phase, owing These test were never concluded in the pre-study phase, owing to a number of different circumstancesto a number of different circumstances

QUESTION:QUESTION:

How to cope with a great project How to cope with a great project setback?setback?

ANSWER: ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT:ACT:Crisis management!Crisis management!

Inform client quickly and discuss route forward: Inform client quickly and discuss route forward: creates commitment and confidence to work creates commitment and confidence to work together in finding a solutiontogether in finding a solution

Form crisis team made up of one’s own experts + Form crisis team made up of one’s own experts + client + externals (including TUclient + externals (including TU’s’s)) analysis cause / effectanalysis cause / effect brainstorm solutions + selectionbrainstorm solutions + selection actions definition / allocationactions definition / allocation 2x /week progress monitoring/co-ordination with 2x /week progress monitoring/co-ordination with

parties:parties: Keep own management well informedKeep own management well informed

Problem: material does not satisfy Problem: material does not satisfy requirementsrequirements

Technical solution:– Quickly weigh up different alternatives:

• A different fibre: the more costly but stronger S-glass instead of E-glass. Not feasible in the short time that was available

• Different ‘sizing’ (type of bonding agent) between the fibre and the resin. Improvements to strength proved feasible but drawbacks in processability later emerged

The A340-The A340-500/600 J-nose500/600 J-nose

Assembly, welding ribs/stiffenersAssembly, welding ribs/stiffeners

Weld quality, J-nose outer surfaceWeld quality, J-nose outer surface

Lessons learnedLessons learned

1)1) For the introduction of truly new For the introduction of truly new technology, you need:technology, you need:

- a customer - a customer product championproduct champion- a good plan and control- a good plan and control- a fall back scenario + support- a fall back scenario + support

- be prepared for crisis management - be prepared for crisis management

2) Everybody together: Co-location in 2) Everybody together: Co-location in Hoogeveen Optimum Team WorkHoogeveen Optimum Team Work

3) Strategy follows opportunity

opportunity: welded fixed wing l/eAirbus A340-600

pressurized floorsGulfstream GV

welded MUC door Fokker 50

1996 1997 1998 1999

controlsurfaces

2000

first application: first application: limited limited volume on ‘inboard J-volume on ‘inboard J-nose’ A340-500/600nose’ A340-500/600

4) Start small and have potential for 4) Start small and have potential for growthgrowth

• followed by growth: ‘J-nose’ on full A380 mid- & outboard wing

First application: A340-500/600First application: A340-500/600

A380 J-noseA380 J-nose

A380 J-nose A380 J-nose

improved concept:improved concept:second generation welding second generation welding

tools and welding striptools and welding stripimproved press-forming of improved press-forming of

ribsribs

large volume productionlarge volume production

Stork Fokker AESP, Hoogeveen

composites

A380 wing (Broughton, UK)A380 wing (Broughton, UK)

Photo courtesy Airbus

Case 2 : DUT 2004 Race CarCase 2 : DUT 2004 Race CarDesign & Build & RaceDesign & Build & Race

Ultra light weight design principleUltra light weight design principle Highest effort in body design & Highest effort in body design &

production and Engine tuning, OKproduction and Engine tuning, OK Plan=>Do=>Plan=>Do=>Check:Check:

Machined parts designed and ordered too Machined parts designed and ordered too late! No capacity anymore at suppliers.late! No capacity anymore at suppliers.

Threat: Too late assembly, no time to testThreat: Too late assembly, no time to test

Question: What should we do now???Question: What should we do now???

ANSWER: ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT:ACT:Crisis management!Crisis management!

Analyse the Critical Path => Turning & Milling of Analyse the Critical Path => Turning & Milling of relative simple alu partsrelative simple alu parts

Form crisis team of own + externals (Fokker Form crisis team of own + externals (Fokker coaches)coaches) brainstorm solutions + selection: BUY Lathe and brainstorm solutions + selection: BUY Lathe and

Milling machine and train DUT team members!Milling machine and train DUT team members! actions definition / allocationactions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoringfrequent progress monitoring

RESULT : car ready just in time for tests and race!RESULT : car ready just in time for tests and race!

Elevators

Rudder

Case 3: G650Case 3: G650thermoplastic control thermoplastic control surfacessurfaces

First primary structure: GV

pressure floors

First welded assembly:MUC door Fo50

20001990 2010

First large scale assembly:

Welded fixed wing leading edges A340

Co-consolidated panels, beams

Welded control surfaces

First series production: Fairchild

Dornier ribs

Follow-up development: A380 outboard fixed

leading edge

Ca/PEI

Glass/PPS

Glass/PPS

Ca/PPS

Ca/PEKK & PEEK

Ca/PPS

Ca/PPS

Ca/PEI

Assembly:welding

Ribs:press forming

Design studies: dimensioning,certification, materials&processes

Spars:co-consolidation

Skins:co-consolidation

CVO Technology development projectCVO Technology development project‘thermoplastic control surfaces’ 2003 - 2009‘thermoplastic control surfaces’ 2003 - 2009

New material

Problem erupted: first product not OKProblem erupted: first product not OK Late design because of late customer inputsLate design because of late customer inputs Bad WeldsBad Welds Contour not OKContour not OK

Plan=>Do=>Plan=>Do=>Check:Check: Root Cause : Tooling too weak, long lead timeRoot Cause : Tooling too weak, long lead time Threat: Too late assembly, & deliveryThreat: Too late assembly, & delivery

Question: What should we do now???Question: What should we do now???

ANSWER: ANSWER: Plan=>Do=>Check=>Plan=>Do=>Check=>ACT:ACT:

IMPROVISE and BRUTE FORCEIMPROVISE and BRUTE FORCE Analyse the Critical Path => Tooling needs to be Analyse the Critical Path => Tooling needs to be

upgradedupgraded Form crisis teamForm crisis team brainstorm solutions + selection: Re-inforce brainstorm solutions + selection: Re-inforce

tooling by temporary stiffenerstooling by temporary stiffeners switch to 24/7 production with frequent checksswitch to 24/7 production with frequent checks

actions definition / allocationactions definition / allocation frequent progress monitoringfrequent progress monitoring

RESULT : First shipsets just in time for static tests RESULT : First shipsets just in time for static tests and first flight! and first flight!

Robot welding after improvementsRobot welding after improvements

Dec 2008: welding FAA approved

Gulfstream 650

Savannah, Sept 2009

Wat leren we hier vanWat leren we hier van

Elk project kan niet zonder een projectplan Elk project kan niet zonder een projectplan JUIST voor R&D omdat dat nieuw is:JUIST voor R&D omdat dat nieuw is:

Breek je SCOPE op in meetbare DELIVERABLESBreek je SCOPE op in meetbare DELIVERABLES Zet duidelijk je MILESTONES neer, met speling op het eindZet duidelijk je MILESTONES neer, met speling op het eind Plan je ACTIVITEITEN qua logica en samen met Murphy: Plan je ACTIVITEITEN qua logica en samen met Murphy:

zorg ook voor plan B voor elk risicozorg ook voor plan B voor elk risico Gebruik ervaring voor inschatting van duur en haalbaarheidGebruik ervaring voor inschatting van duur en haalbaarheid Doe het samen (Visual Plan) en check het Kritieke Pad (er Doe het samen (Visual Plan) en check het Kritieke Pad (er

is er altijd 1!)is er altijd 1!) Control hoort er altijd bij; PLAN>DO>CHECK>ACT (elke Control hoort er altijd bij; PLAN>DO>CHECK>ACT (elke

week / dag), en wees voorbereid op Crisis Managementweek / dag), en wees voorbereid op Crisis Management Blijf er voor gaan als TEAM, help elkaar en schakel! Blijf er voor gaan als TEAM, help elkaar en schakel!

Wat gaan Wat gaan julliejullie NUNU anders doen?anders doen?

Formula StudentFormula Student Formula ZeroFormula Zero Eco RunnerEco Runner Nova BikeNova Bike Human Powered TeamHuman Powered Team ZonnebootZonneboot ANDER eigen projectANDER eigen project