Planning Future Libraries and ‘ Creating the Future’ 未来图书馆运作模式：创造未来 Steve O’Connor University Librarian The Hong Kong Polytechnic University December

Planning Future Libraries and‘Creating the Future’

未来图书馆运作模式：创造未来

Steve O’Connor

University Librarian

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

December 2007

“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that matter” Lawrence Wilkinson

Tunnel Vision 管中窥天

Light at the end of the tunnel 亮光出现在隧道的尽头

Vision gets narrower 视线是狭窄 Open it up ? 打开它如何？ Think ‘outside the box’ 跳出盒子来

思考 Allow for outrageous thoughts 允许

奇异的想法 There is nothing which cannot be

changed ! 世上没有什么是不可以改变的！

INSERT BINOCULARS

Future Thinking

What it is not…Strategic planning

…Only thinking about what to do tomorrow

How not to change …Cling to present views of ‘our’ world

…Not being able to conceive of other ways of doing

…Wait for others outside our environment to tell us what to do; to reduce budget ; to force change of direction; to become less relevant

University Libraries

Two Manifestations:– Physical– Digital

Both are very popular Serve similar but different purposes

Use of the Physical Library - Entry

Entry Total & Entry per FTE 1997-2006

139 128

159181

162 151 159 167 162 154

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total Entry 43% in 10 years;

Entry per FTE 11% in 10 years

1,954,360

2,798,826

7,668 users walked in the Library on an average day in 2006

Use of the Physical Library - Loans

Loans Total & Loan per FTE 1997-2006

51 54 56 5552 55

59 58 5652

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Book Loans 30% in 10 years

Loan per FTE remains quite stable

721,976

938,183

Use of the Digital Library – Web Access

2,203,058

2,670,4552,958,995

189,138362,214 415,901

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2004 2005 2006

Visit to Library Website 30% in 2 years.

Articles downloaded from Science Direct by PolyU users

120% in 2 years.

Visit : a unique host active during the period of an hour.

VPN usage increased by 84% from 2004 to 2007 (ITS statistics)

Our Academic Book Industry

US academic books publishing keep static even US academic library purchases of print resources down 8% in 2002

Chinese academic book titles rose 25% and sales volumes increased 13% in 2004

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

US Academic Book Industry

Title

SUMMATION: Print Book industry is not shrinking; academic book industry ????

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Chinese Academic Book Industry

Title

Top ten assumptions for the future of academic libraries and librarians(ACRL Research Committee)

3. Students and faculty will increasingly demand faster and greater access to services.

6. Higher education will increasingly view the institution as a business.

7. Students will increasingly view themselves as customers and consumers, expecting high-quality facilities and services.

8. Distance learning will be an increasingly more common option in higher education, and will coexist but not threaten the traditional bricks-and-mortar model.

College & Research Libraries News, April 2007

http://www.pla.org/ala/acrl/acrlpubs/crlnews/backissues2007/april07/tenassumptions.cfm

Our E-book Industry

SUMMATION: E-book industry is flourishing but what will be long-term user reaction?

•In 2007, 88% of academic libraries use e-books

•More and more academic publishers, such as Oxford University Press, Wiley and Elsevier, publish their books in print and electronic format at the same time

•Chinese academic libraries use of e-books increased 16% in 2005

Chinese e-book titles increased to 210,000 titles

•More and more academic publishers published their books in both formats

Our Users

User use Google first: 89% uses search engine…2% use library catalogue

Research says Wikopedia as accurate as Britannica

Broadband penetration rates important

SUMMATION: Students are young; researchers are older;Who are we designing THIS Library for?

Generation Y students study differently and becoming next generation of researchers

Growing emphasis on research as well as teaching

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Period

Use

Normal Life Cycle 一般的生命周期

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Period

Use

Life Cycle with Spikes 跳跃的生命周期

Life Cycle with Long Tail 长尾巴的生命周期

Growth of Digital… 增长的数字化资源

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Web

Digital

Print

What is YOUR prediction for – Web? %– Digital? %– Print? %

Think about it for OUR Library and YOUR research needs

Digital Futures in Web 2.0

Planning for delivery of ‘Born Digital’ and ‘Born Again Digital’

Working toward Institutional Repository for PolyU More powerful and discriminating meta search

engine software Creation of AVATARS.. Librarians roaming the net Creation of ‘boutique’ libraries Using PDA devices, especially mobiles with touch Working more collaboratively

Trends

Anything ‘born’ or ‘born-again’ digital will be used ! User preference is for digital but require print-out

capability Much print will NEVER be digitised Academics prefer to remotely from the Library,

except when lecturing Library has two manifestations ..

– Physical, and – Digital

Role of a Business Model运作模式的角色

Sources of InputsSources of Inputs资源的来源

Value and informationValue and informationOutputsOutputs

信息资源的输出BUSINESSBUSINESS

MODELMODEL运作的模式

Fast Food快餐

BUSINESSBUSINESSMODELMODEL

运作的模式



信息资源的输出


Fast Food快餐

McDonalds麦当劳模式


运作的模式





Fast Food快餐

McDonalds麦当劳模式

Convenience, satisfy hunger方便、满足客户



运作的模式




Fast Food快餐

McDonalds FAST JUNK FOODMcDonalds FAST HEALTHY FOOD 麦当劳垃圾食物麦当劳健康食物

Convenience, satisfy hunger 方便、满足客户



运作的模式




Role of a TRADITIONAL Library Business Model传统图书馆运作模式的角色

Books and Journals图书和期刊

User find what they can.. Good luck!!读者查到他们所需的资料。。运气好！！



运作的模式




Collecting , preserving, reactive收集、保存、反馈



运作的模式



Books and Journals图书和期刊

User find what they can.. Good luck!!读者查到他们所需的资料…运气好！！


More digital and

‘Free-to-air’更多数字资源和免费资源

How is the client assisted when they are

less likely to be in a physical Library??

当读者不再来图书馆，我们应该怎样提供服务？



运作的模式



Role of a Library Model运作模式的角色

What is the new Business or Operating Model What is the new Business or Operating Model for the Library ??for the Library ?? 什么是图书馆新的经营或运作的模式？？什么是图书馆新的经营或运作的模式？？



运作的模式



Publishing cycle 出版周期USER as AuthorUSER as Author

使用者是著者使用者是著者

PublisherPublisher出版社出版社

Librarian as funderLibrarian as funder图书馆员是建立者图书馆员是建立者

USER asUSER asReaderReader

使用者是读者使用者是读者

IPRIPR知识产权

Publishing cycle 出版周期





USER as AuthorUSER as Author使用者是著者使用者是著者

$$$$$$







IPRIPR知识产权

$$$$$$

Publishing cycle 出版周期USER as AuthorUSER as Author

读者也是著者读者也是著者





IPRIPR知识产权

How many models are there currently ????

目前存在多少模式？？？？







? ? ? ? ?



运作的模式




In this context let’s briefly review… 以下我们来简单地回顾一下…

Publishing industry 出版行业

Life cycle 出版物的生命周期

Collection development 馆藏建设

Professional Publishing and Information Universe 专业出版社和信息资源

7,982

6,850

6,143

4,275

4,229

4,220

3,555

1,730

1,377

1,119

880

649

293

Reed Elsevier

Thomson

Pearson

VNU

McGraw-Hill

Reuters

Wolters Kluwer

Scholastic

Dow Jones

UBM

Springer

John Wiley

Taylor & Francis

(a)

STM

Legal & Tax

Financial

B2B

Education

Media/Marketing

Other

Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a)(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.Combined KAP/Springer entity.

Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)Total 2002 Sales (€ in m) 2002 2002 销售总数（百万欧元）销售总数（百万欧元）

A Truly Global Industry全球出版业的现状

Reed ElsevierReed Elsevier Wolters KluwerWolters Kluwer

PearsonPearson

64%

28%

8%

46%49%

5%

USUS

19%

8%

73%

EuropeEurope% of Revenues Originating from:% of Revenues Originating from:

收入来源收入来源 %%Rest of the WorldRest of the World

VNUVNU

36%

11%

53%(a)

(a)(a) Includes Canada.Includes Canada.

Publishing Business Models出版业运作模式

Different business models 不同的运作模式

Very significant cash flows大量的现金流通

What about Open Access ?开放取阅将会带来怎样变化？

Life Cycle of Books and Journal Articles 图书和期刊文章的生命周期

Patterns changing 形式的变化 Libraries had archival role 图书馆有贮存的作用 Publishers now current archive 当前出版商也贮存 Old cycle model no longer relevant 旧周期模式不再适用

Affecting business model 对运作模式的影响 What business have libraries been in ? 图书馆应该如何

运作？ What impact will life cycle changes have for libraries ? 生

命周期的变化对图书馆有什么影响？

Emergence of ‘Long Tail’‘ 长尾巴’的出现

Affecting many industries 对多行业的影响

– Music 音乐– Books 图书– Movies 电影

If you can digitise older, very low or no use material, ‘they will come’ 如果将旧的、低用量或没用量的馆藏数字化，该类资源将会刺激使用量 , ‘ 长尾巴就出现’

What is the impact on library collections? 对图书馆馆藏有什么影响？

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Do

wn

load

s

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55

Volume

AJ Agricultural ResearchDownloads per Volume

1 November 2004 to 22 May 2005

《农业研究》每册下载数量 2004 年 11 月至 2005 年 5月

Future of Print and Collection Growth 未来图书的形式和馆藏的增长

Journals to be disaggregated 期刊将被分拆开 Collections of articles, and book chapters not

books and journals 期刊分成文章、图书分成章 Institutional Repositories of university staff

publications 大学教职员出版物的机构贮存库 Can purchase on a partial basis 允许定购出版物的

部分章节 Impact of Learning Objects as new forms of

information 新形式的学习对象 ‘Cut and Paste’ OR ‘Cut and post’ mentality ‘ 剪和

贴’或‘剪和网上发表’的心态

Published Output Held 拥有出版物的比例

Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas 1975-1995

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

% h

eld

1975-1995 非澳大利亚出版的英文书的馆藏百分比

Distributed Collections Model 分散式的收藏模式 Adapted from and used with permission of Brian Schottlaender使用以下内容已征得布赖恩同意

Increasing shared management

Decreasing library autonomy

Increasing archival assurance

Decreasing object access

Primary Service Layer: Local Libraries初级服务层次：地方图书馆

“Bright”

Full user services, access, circulation, significant redundancy全面读者服务、获取信息、流通，大量裁员

Tertiary Service Layer: Archival Repositories三级服务层次：档案贮存库

“Dark” No user services, emergency institutional services, planned redundancy 无需读者服务，紧急机构服务，有计划裁员

Secondary Service Layer: Regional Repositories次级服务层次：区域贮存库

“Dim”

Limited user services, planned redundancy有限读者服务，有计划裁员

增加联合管理

减少图书馆的自治权

增加档案功能减少获取实物

Shared profiling 1 共享资源

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5

Subjects

Library One

Shared profiling 2 共享资源

Percent Collect

ed

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5

Subjects

A Three-Library Shared Profile

What have we seen……我们已经看到…

Can you predict the near future?你能预言未来吗？

What is your library’s Business Model ? 你图书馆的运作模式是什么？

What Business Model do you want to aim at ? 你的运作模式要达到什么目标？

Will the Long Tail affect your library ?长尾巴会影响到你的图书馆吗？

What form will collections take in the future? 未来馆藏将采用什么形式？

Emerging Trends in the BroaderEnvironment

www.lib.polyu.edu.hkGo to……

Documents

Planning Future Libraries and ‘ Creating the Future’ 未来图书馆运作模式：创造未来 Steve O’Connor University Librarian The Hong Kong Polytechnic University December