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IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
PostPC와 IT-SoC 분야의산업기술 동향과 전망
서울대학교 전기컴퓨터공학부
실시간운영체제 연구실
홍 성 수 교수
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Background (1)
• “Digital convergence” was an empty slogan for almost 2 decades.
• Now, technologies are merging-driven by faster chips, broader bandwidth, and common Internet standard.– Example: PDAs in the late ’90s is
vanishing as customers get the same functions in a cell phone, with camera.
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Background (2)
• New opportunities and challenges to PostPC and SoC industry
• “This is going to be the most disruptive period in the past 50 years”Hossein Eslambolchi, President AT&T Laboratories, 2004
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Background (3)
• Technology and market drivers for PostPC and SoC Industry
3C Convergence
33C Deep Submicron Technology
C ConvergenceConvergence
Extremely Diversified
Service Needs
Extremely Extremely DiversifiedDiversified
Service NeedsService NeedsPostPCPostPCPostPC IT-SoCITIT--SoCSoC
Deep Deep Submicron Submicron TechnologyTechnology
Extended Mobility
Extended Extended MobilityMobility
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
PostPC
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
PostPC Market Drivers
1. Mobility and mobile communications
2. Diversity and complexity in PostPC
– Reduce• Time-to-market
• NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Mobile Market beyond Voice is Growing Rapidly
Adoption of digital convergence devices accelerates
Mobile subscriber penetration grows at a healthy pace
Encouraging early uptake of 2.5-3G services
• 1.5 billion mobile subscribers – 25% adoption reached!
• Attractive growth market for profitable low ARPU solutions
• WAP page impressions in UK doubled last 12 months – now 1.4 billion per month.
• > 15 million Java downloads per month and growing
• ~ 60 operators launched video services
• Video on demand and TV streaming successful in Korea.
• Smart phone market CAGR >100%
• 200 million camera handsets expected to be shipped 2004
• Portable music devices embraced - 77% Nokia 8310 users listen to FM radio; 100 million iTunes downloads
• Intense mobile enterprise activity: WiFi, e-mail, VPN, RFID
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Approaching the Two Billion Milestone (Nokia Case)
Mobile
phone s
ubscription g
row
th
mill
ions
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
01992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006
//
Current globalpenetration 20%
Current globalpenetration 20%
2 billionin 2006!
2 billionin 2006!
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Interplay of Different Connectivity Technologies, Enriched by IP
Convergence
Wide Area ZoneWide Area Zone> 100m range> 100m range
3G (WCDMA, GSWEDGE, CDMA)3G (WCDMA, GSWEDGE, CDMA)
Local Area ZoneLocal Area Zone10m10m--100m range100m range
Bluetooth, WLAN (WIFI), 3GBluetooth, WLAN (WIFI), 3G
Personal ZonePersonal Zone1m1m--10m range10m range
BluetoothBluetooth
Touch ZoneTouch Zone< 0.1m range< 0.1m rangeRFID, NFCRFID, NFC
Broadcasting ZoneBroadcasting Zone> 10km range> 10km range
DMBDMB
IP ServiceIP Serviceandand
IP MobilityIP Mobility
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Opportunity and Portfolio across the Domains
MobileMobiledomaindomain
EnterpriseEnterprisedomaindomain
HomeHomedomaindomain
InternetInternet(Media)(Media)domaindomain ConsumerConsumer
3G-GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA continuum
Multiradio and multiaccess
Software platforms and architecture
IP convergence
Imaging
Music, mobile TV
Content sharing
Security/DRM
Secure mobile connectivity
E-mail and mobile office applications
Device and service management
Interoperability and convergence of fixed/enterprise/ mobile network
Interoperability of content and services
Manageability
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
3G Technologies for Rich Multimedia
Rich mobileBrowsing with
XHTML
Full Internetbrowsing with HTML
VideoMMS chips(MMS 1.2)
Video streaming(3GPP/Real)
P2P Video(CS,PS)
Mobile TV(DVB-H)
Audio personalization(polyphonic ringtones)
Rich music(AAC/MP3)
Visual ratiobroadcast
OMA DRM 1.0
OMA DRM 2.0
BrowsingBrowsing
VideoVideo
MusicMusic
DRMDRM
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Success Strategy
• Driving extended mobility
• Mastering horizontal spectrum of the industry
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Driving Extended Mobility
Open
peer-to-peer
architecture
Best possible
technology
available for each
application
Best radio
technology
capabilities and
portfolio
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Mastering Horizontal Spectrum of the Industry
Capability to
dynamically
renew bases of
competitive
advantage
Capability to
leverage best
available
technologies
by having
modular
architectures
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
PostPC Market Drivers
1. Mobility and mobile communications
2. Diversity and complexity in PostPC
– Reduce• Time-to-market
• NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Diversity in PostPC Industry
Hardware DevicesHardware Devices
General Purpose Platform Devices(PDA, Smart Phone, Tablet PC, Home Server)
General Purpose Platform Devices(PDA, Smart Phone, Tablet PC, Home Server)
Network Infrastructure Devices(Gateway, Router, Switch, Access Point)
Network Infrastructure Devices(Gateway, Router, Switch, Access Point)
Digital Consumer Electronic Devices(DTV, Digital Camera, PMP)
Digital Consumer Electronic Devices(DTV, Digital Camera, PMP)
Ubiquitous Devices(RFID Reader, Sensor Node)
Ubiquitous Devices(RFID Reader, Sensor Node)
Traditional Hard Real-Time Devices(Automotive, Robot, Medical System)Traditional Hard Real-Time Devices
(Automotive, Robot, Medical System)
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
ARMx
HAL (Device Drivers and etc. )
RT/Embedded Base Kernel
PVR DVRGame
boxPDA
Cell
PhoneRG
Middleware
Vert
ical
App
licat
ion
Choose &Configure
Choose &Configure
PostPC Design Challenges (2)
x86 PPC SH MIPS
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
ARMx
HAL (Device Drivers and etc. )
RT/Embedded Base Kernel
PVR DVRGame
boxPDA
Cell
PhoneRG
Middleware
Vert
ical
App
licat
ion
Choose &Configure
Choose &Configure
Vertical Customization and Component-based Design
Linux IPs, System Library
x86 PPC SH MIPS
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Horizontal Requirements
Embedded systems requirementsPhysical: footprint, powerBehavior: performance, predictabilityPerformance characteristics typically determined by a few application kernelsEconomic: time to market, NRE cost constraints dominate
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Customization
Embedded systems requirementsPhysical: footprint, powerBehavior: performance, predictabilityPerformance characteristics typically determined by a few application kernelsEconomic: time to market, NRE cost constraints dominate
Customization is the key !
Customization has been met with custom hardware solutions
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
IT-SoC
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
SoC Market Expansion
World Semiconductor MarketWorld SoC Market
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050%
15%
30%
45%
60%60%
SoC/SemiconductorMarket Ratio
Year
Chip market as a whole is expected to be $250B by 2008
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
SoC Success Factors
• Again, the reduction of– Time-to-market
– NRE (Non-recurring Engineering) cost
is the key to success!
• Moore’s law:– Performance doubles every 18 months
– Cost halves every 18 months?
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
NRE Cost Factors
Cost and risk rising to unacceptable levelsTop cost drivers
Verification (40%)Architecture Design (23%)Embedded Software Design
1400 man-months (SW)1150 man-months (HW)
HW/SW integration
Estimated Cost$85M – $90M
Example: Design with 80M transistors in 100nm technology
12 – 18 months
designverific
ation
plementa
erification
erification
ototypeoductiontion
v pr prim v
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Reconfigurable IC
• NRE reduction for low-volume production
bitbit--level: level: Excalibur EPXA10 by Excalibur EPXA10 by AAltera
ALUALU--level: level: Chameleon by Chameleon Systemsltera Chameleon by Chameleon Systems
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Success Strategy
Rapidly changing applicationkernels in low volume
EDATools
Power
Size
Timing
Application Specific DesignResponding via Automation
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Obstacles to Overcome
• Lack of
– Design culture and methodologies
– EDA tool industry
– Embedded software industry
• Difficulties in
– Interdisciplinary R & D and education
IT 산업전망컨퍼런스 2005
Conclusions
• Expected rapid expansion in PostPCand SoC industries
• Success strategies
– Driving extended mobility
– Mastering horizontal spectrum of industry
– Aggressive customization to reduce time-to-market and NRE cost