Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PRINCIPALES RIESGOS DE LAS
ECONOMÍAS AVANZADAS Y
EMERGENTES
Mikel Aguirre,
Head of Political and Single Risk de Coface
en España y Portugal
Pour changer d’image:
• Faites un clic droit
sur la diapositive
• Cliquez sur « Mise en forme de
l’arrière plan »
• Choisissez votre image
(1400x1050px)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
Sources: Eurostat, Coface
UN BUEN CRECIMIENTO GLOBAL NO DEBE OCULTAR UN AUMENTO DE RIESGOS Y VULNERABILIDADES
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
Source World Economic Situation Prospects
2019 United Nations
EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO SE MANTIENE FIRME PERO PUEDE SER QUE YA HAYA ALCANZADO EL PUNTO MÁS ALTO
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
INDUSTRIA EN LA EUROZONA: EL FIN DE UN CICLO MUY LARGO DE EXPANSIÓN
39
Euro Area: Industrial Production (3 month moving average, year-over-year change in percent)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
growth period industrial production
60 months22
months56
months
27 months
30months
25months
Source: Eurostat, Datastream, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
ALEMANIA
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
3,0
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan-
17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan-
18
May
-18
Sep
-18
Jan-
19
Germany: Consumers are happy
Unemployment Rate (lhs)
Consumer Confidence (rhs)
Source: ILO, Gfk, Datastream, Coface
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19
Germany: Industrial Production and New Orders (YOY in %)
New Orders
IndustrialProduction
Manufacturing
Source: Destatis, Datastream, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
FRANCIA: Enfocando su exportación en países emergentes con incremento del consumo
Sources: World
Bank, INSEE,
Coface
Brazil
China
Czech R.
Egypt
India
Korea
Mexico
Philippines
Russia
SaudiArabia
Turkey
0
20
40
60
80
100
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ex
po
rts
(a
s a
% o
f G
DP
)
Households consumption (as % of GDP)SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Demand for France's exports
SSSS
Poland
South Af.
Hungary
Thailand
Malaysia
Emerging Markets: Households consumption, exports and demand for French exports
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
El parlamento europeo que ha salido del 26/05 está más fragmentado
ALDE68
ALDE98
Greens/EFA52
Greens/EFA47
S&D186
S&D129
EPP218
EPP177
22
28
GUE/NGL52
GUE/NGL56
ECR74
ECR62
EFDD44
EFDD46
ENF34
ENF62
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2014
2019(projections)
Federalism Euroscepticism
Sources: European
Parliament, Europe
Elects (Dec 2018)
European Parliament:MEPs by parliamentary group (number of seats)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-01/china-s-real-exchange-rate-undervalued-5-10-imf-report-says.html
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
LA GUERRA COMERCIAL CHINA -EEUU: HAY QUE PRESTAR ATENCIÓN SOBRE LOS EFECTOS INDIRECTOS SOBRE LAS EMPRESAS EUROPEAS
Elasticity of Domestic Value Added (DVA) Exports of Country X in relation to US tariffs on EU 15, the DVA receiver
-0,4
-0,7
-4,3
-3,4
-1,2
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
To
tal
Ma
nu
fac
turi
ng
Ma
ch
ine
ry
Tra
ns
po
rt e
qu
ip.
Ch
em
icals
Min
ing
Wo
od
, p
ap
er
Ele
ctr
on
ica
l e
qu
ip.
Fo
od
pro
du
cts
Meta
ls
Tex
tile
Ag
ric
ult
ure
Statistically not significant Statistically significant (at 5%) Source: Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MERCADOS EMERGENTES– RIESGO #1: INCREMENTO DEL RIESGO CORPORATIVO EN CHINA
Source: Coface
60
55
5957 56
68
76
86
40
60
80
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
China: Coface Corporate Payment Survey (credit terms, number of days)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
¿SE ESTÁ TOMANDO EL CONSUMIDOR CHINO UN DESCANSO?
Retail and auto sales
(year on year % change)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
13 14 15 16 17 18
Retail sales (LHS)
Auto sales (RHS)
Sources: NBS, Coface
33
26
35
30
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
H1 2014 H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2017 H1 2018
Bank loans to SME
(as a % of total loans to businesses)
Sources: PBoC, Coface
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MERCADOS EMERGENTES– RIESGO #2: FLUJOS DE CAPITAL Y ECONOMIAS EMERGENTES: SOSPECHOSOS HABITUALES
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01/
01/
15
01/
01/
16
01/
01/
17
01/
01/
18
01/0
1/1
9
-11,9%
-7,8%
-2,4%
-1,7%
0,3%
0,6%
0,8%
1,5%
1,7%
2,4%
2,5%
3,5%
4,3%
4,5%
7,9%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
Argentinian Peso
Turkish Lira
South Korea Won
Polish Zloty
Nigerian Naira
Brazilian Real
Indian Rupee
Thai Baht
Indonesian Rupiah
Chinese Yuan
South Africa Rand
Egyptian Pound
Mexican Peso
Chilean Peso
Russian Ruble
Net non-resident purchases of EM stocks and bonds
(in USD bn, source: IIF)
Local currency versus USD
(YTD in %, 15 April 2019, source: Reuters)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fed - FFR
BCE - Refi
BCE - Depo
%
LA POLÍTICA MONETARIA EN LA EUROZONA SE IRÁ ESTABILIZANDO
Previsiones de CaixaBank Research de tipos de interés de referencia
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MERCADOS EMERGENTES– RIESGO #3 : PRECIOS DEL CRUDO VOLATILES
71,62
63,76
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
USD
Brent & WTI Oil Prices
Brent WTI
Source: Datastream
Last data point: 17/04/2019
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
ÁFRICA Riesgo Social: unos cuantos puntos calientes en el 2019
Africa: Coface Social Risk Index in 2018 Sources: Coface, ACLED
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
DEUDA CORPORATIVA EN MONEDA EXTRANJERA EN PAÍSES EMERGENTES: LA VUELTA AL PECADO ORIGINAL
Corporate debt denominated in USD and EUR
Sources: Coface,
IIF
Brazil
Argentina
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Israel
Korea
Malaysia
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
Mexico
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
De
bt-
to-G
DP
ra
tio
in
Q2
20
18
(%
)
Percentage point variation2008-2018
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
Near and Middle East
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
IMPORTANTES MONTOS DE VENCIMIENTOS DE DEUDA CORPORATIVA EN USD EN 2019
USD denominated corporate debt maturing in 2019 (as a share of GDP)
Sources: Coface,
IIF
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Uk
rain
e
Eg
yp
t
Ke
ny
a
Po
lan
d
Th
ail
an
d
Arg
en
tin
a
Cze
ch
R.
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Nig
eri
a
Co
lom
bia
Hu
ng
ary
Ru
ss
ia
S.
Ko
rea
Isra
el
Sa
ud
i A
r.
Ind
on
es
ia
Tu
rke
y
Bra
zil
Ch
ile
So
uth
Af.
Me
xic
o
Ma
lay
sia
Non-financial corporate bonds
Non-financial corporate loans
Financial corporate bonds
Financial corporate loans
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
MÁS INSOLVENCIAS EN 2019 SEÑALANDO QUE EL PUNTO DE PARTIDA ERA MUY BAJO
Business insolvencies: Coface 2019 growth forecast
Source: Coface
-16%
-9%-7% -6% -6%
-3% -3% -2% -2% -1% -1%
0% 0% 0%2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9%
12%
-2%
2%
-1%
3%4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
So
uth
Ko
rea
Fin
lan
d
Bra
zil
NZ
Ice
lan
d
Neth
erl
an
ds
Sin
gap
ore
So
uth
Afr
ica
US
A
Serb
ia
Belg
ium
Can
ad
a
Jap
an
No
rwa
y
Fra
nce
Germ
an
y
Ru
ss
ia
Latv
ia
Ukra
ine
Den
mark
Po
rtu
gal
Sp
ain
Czech
Rep
Slo
va
kia
Bu
lgari
a
Po
lan
d
Ta
iwa
n
Cro
ati
a
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Ro
man
ia
Slo
ve
nia
Italy
Sw
ed
en
UK
Esto
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Lit
hu
an
ia
Au
str
alia
Po
lan
d
Tu
rkey
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Eu
ro z
on
e
As
ia P
ac
ific
We
st.
Eu
rop
e
CE
E
2018
2019 (f)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GLOBALIZATION
Bill clinton una vez llamó a la
globalización:
“ El equivalente económico a una fuerza
de la naturaleza como el viento o el agua”
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
NEW GLOBALISATION
EL RESULTADO: ‘LA GRAN CONVERGENCIA’ (1990 A 2014)
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
https://www.ft.com/video/0ba9601c-54c2-43ff-8fb0-56d9b9db6839
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
LA VIDA SIGUE..
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
.
LA VIDA SIGUE..
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
GUERRAS TECNOLÓGICAS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
CRUCE DE CAMINOS: QUÉ DIRECCIÓN TOMAR
Jornada 38 PJ PG PE PP GF GC Ptos
1 Barcelona 38 26 9 3 90 36 87
2 Atlético 38 22 10 6 55 29 76
3 R. Madrid 38 21 5 12 63 46 68
4 Valencia 38 15 16 7 51 35 61
5 Getafe 38 15 14 9 48 35 59
6 Sevilla 38 17 8 13 62 47 59
7 Espanyol 38 14 11 13 48 50 53
8 Athletic 38 13 14 11 41 45 53
9 R. Sociedad 38 13 11 14 45 46 50 10 Betis 38 14 8 16 44 52 50
11 Alavés 38 13 11 14 39 50 50
12 Eibar 38 11 14 13 46 50 47 13 Leganés 38 11 12 15 37 43 45
14 Villarreal 38 10 14 14 49 52 44
15 Levante 38 11 11 16 59 66 44
16 Valladolid 38 10 11 17 32 51 41
17 Celta 38 10 11 17 53 62 41
18 Girona 38 9 10 19 37 53 37
19 Huesca 38 7 12 19 43 65 33
20 Rayo 38 8 8 22 41 70 32
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
RETOS PENDIENTES
• Tasa de paro • Crecimiento inclusivo
Macroeconómicos
Financieros
Sociales
• Competitividad • Productividad
• Deuda pública • Deuda externa
1
2
3
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
COFACE COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
ESKERRIK ASKO DENOI ZUEN ARRETAGATIK
“NO HAY EXPORTACIÓN SI NO HAY FINANCIACIÓN Y NO HAY FINANCIACIÓN SI NO
HAY SEGURO”