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  • R Graphics Output · 2020. 12. 14. · Alaska Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01...
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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● National** Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 5k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 100k 200k 300k 400k Total Deaths Reported BPagano Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI QJHong RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 100k 200k 300k 400k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-12-14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Alabama Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano CMU Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID IHME ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI ESG RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSD-NEU UMass-MB USC UT Wadhwani Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 1k 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k Total Deaths Reported BPagano Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL Microsoft MIT-LCP MOBS NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI RPI-UW CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSD-NEU UMass-MB USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 Jan-01 0 1k 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-12-14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greater that more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

R Graphics Output · 2020. 12. 14. · Alaska Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 0 20 40 New Weekly Deaths 60 Reported BPagano CMU Columbia−UNC Covid19Sim MIT−ORC

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  • ● ●● ●

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    National**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    30kN

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    30k

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100k

    200k

    300k

    400k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIQJHongRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100k

    200k

    300k

    400k

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

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    ●

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    Alabama

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

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    Alaska

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    ●●

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    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

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    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    American Samoa

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0● ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0● ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

  • ● ● ●

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    Arizona**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ●

    ●

    ● ● ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

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    Arkansas

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●

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    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

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    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●● ●

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    California**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●● ●

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    ●

    ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    30k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    30k

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ● ●●

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    Colorado

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UW

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ●● ●

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    Connecticut

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    ●

    ●● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

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    Delaware**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

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    ●

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    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

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    1k

    1.2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    1.2k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    District of Columbia

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60N

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMIT−LCPNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    ●

    ●● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ●● ● ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL

    KarlenLANLMIT−LCPNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete

    UAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ●● ● ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Florida**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    RPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    25k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Georgia**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    RPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    12k

    14k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    12k

    14k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Guam

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedLSHTMJHU−CSSE

    JHU−IDDJHU−APLNotreDame−Mobility

    PSIESGUCLA

    UMass−MBUSC

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    ● ●

    ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLNotreDame−MobilityPSIUCLAUMass−MBUSC

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ● ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    ● ●● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Hawaii

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40N

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMIHMEJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    ● ●

    ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Idaho

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

  • ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●●

    Illinois

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    ● ● ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Indiana**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    ●● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Iowa

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Kansas

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    ●● ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

  • ●

    ●

    ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Kentucky

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    ●● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniWalmartBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    Louisiana**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●●

    ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Maine**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Maryland**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ● ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Massachusetts**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UW

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Michigan

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    ● ● ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Minnesota

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    ●● ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Mississippi**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Missouri

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    RPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    ● ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    Montana

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    1.2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    1.2k

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

  • ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Nebraska

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300N

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    ● ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityPSICovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ● ● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Nevada**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ●●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    New Hampshire**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140N

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    ●

    ● ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ● ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ● ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ●

    ● ● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    New Jersey**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ● ● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●● ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUT

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    New Mexico

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    ● ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    3k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    3k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ● ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    New York**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10k

    20k

    30k

    40k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UW

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    10k

    20k

    30k

    40k● ●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●●

    ●● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●●

    North Carolina**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800N

    ew W

    eekl

    y D

    eath

    sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniWalmartBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    North Dakota

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Northern Mariana Islands

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedLSHTMJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1

    ● ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1

    2

    3

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1

    2

    3

    ● ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Ohio**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    1.2k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1k

    1.2k

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    12k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    IHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    2k

    4k

    6k

    8k

    10k

    12k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●

    ●●

    ● ● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oklahoma**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●●

    ● ● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    ●

    ● ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    3k

    3.5k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniWalmartBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    3k

    3.5k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●●

    ● ● ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Oregon**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ● ● ● ●

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    ●

    ● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

    UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ● ●● ● ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Pennsylvania**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

    ● ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    5k

    10k

    15k

    20k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Puerto Rico

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimLSHTM

    JHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    NotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLAUMass−MB

    USCWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    ●●

    ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCovid19Sim

    JHU−CSSEKarlenLANL

    NotreDame−MobilityPSIUCLA

    UMass−MBUSCWadhwaniBands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●● ● ● ●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Rhode Island

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

    ● ● ● ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    ●● ● ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●● ●

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    2.5k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    South Carolina**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    ●

    ●●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

    ISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

    MOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

    UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ● ●●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    1k

    2k

    3k

    4k

    5k

    6k

    ●●

    ●●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

  • ●●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    South Dakota*

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

    LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

    LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESG

    CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●●

    ●●

    ● ●

    ●●

    ● ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models

    Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    Tota

    l Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

    MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ● ●●

    ●●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    500

    1k

    1.5k

    2k

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ●

    EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    Update: 2020−12−14 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Tennessee**

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    New

    Wee

    kly

    Dea

    ths

    ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM

    GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

    MIT−LCPMOBSNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

    UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

    Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

    ●

    ●

    ●

    ● ●

    ●

    ● ●●

    ●

    Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ●


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