14
R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

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Page 1: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

R. Srinivasan

Prasad Daggupati

Deepa Varma

Page 2: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

1

2

3

Overview of Tigris river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh

Proposed dam

Current dam

Upper Zone

until Iraq border

Legend

tigris_dams

<all other values>

Type

Û Barrage

!( Dam

#* Dam Under Construction

$+ Planned Dam

Û Regulator

$+ planned dam

Page 3: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

1

2

3

Middle Zone until

Bagdad

Legend

tigris_dams

<all other values>

Type

Û Barrage

!( Dam

#* Dam Under Construction

$+ Planned Dam

Û Regulator

$+ planned dam

Page 4: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

Lower Zone until

Hawizeh Marsh

1

2

3

Legend

tigris_dams

<all other values>

Type

Û Barrage

!( Dam

#* Dam Under Construction

$+ Planned Dam

Û Regulator

$+ planned dam

Page 5: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

Flow into Hawizeh marsh from Karkheh

River

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

flo

w (

mc

m)

% Exceedance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1/1

/198

2

8/1

/198

2

3/1

/198

3

10/1/1…

5/1

/198

4

12/1/1…

7/1

/198

5

2/1

/198

6

9/1

/198

6

4/1

/198

7

11/1/1…

6/1

/198

8

1/1

/198

9

8/1

/198

9

3/1

/199

0

10/1/1…

5/1

/199

1

12/1/1…

7/1

/199

2

2/1

/199

3

9/1

/199

3

4/1

/199

4

11/1/1…

6/1

/199

5

1/1

/199

6

8/1

/199

6

3/1

/199

7

10/1/1…

5/1

/199

8

12/1/1…

7/1

/199

9

2/1

/200

0

9/1

/200

0

4/1

/200

1

11/1/2…

6/1

/200

2

1/1

/200

3

8/1

/200

3

3/1

/200

4

10/1/2…

5/1

/200

5

12/1/2…

7/1

/200

6

2/1

/200

7

9/1

/200

7

4/1

/200

8

11/1/2…

6/1

/200

9

1/1

/201

0

8/1

/201

0

Flo

w (

cm

s)

Flow without Karkheh dam Karkheh flow

2500 ha, 5900 mcm

Page 6: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

47000

12000

7000

22000

40000

3500

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

27000

42000

Tartar

5000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Average 80’s

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

64000

16000

11000

28000

53000

5000

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

DiyalaBagdad

37000

53000

Tartar

11000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

High 80’s

Al B

eta

rra

16000

5500

1500

7500

16000

2000

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

9000

15000

Tartar

1000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Low 80’s

Al B

eta

rra

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm

Annual Water budgets in 80’s Kutt Barrage

Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with

evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

Page 7: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

31000

8000

4000

15000

18000

2800

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

19000

22000

Tartar

9000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Average 90’s

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

40000

6000

5000

23000

22000

1800

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

DiyalaBagdad

29000

26000

Tartar

14000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

High 90’s

Al B

eta

rra

9000

3400

800

2500

7000

1000

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

6000

8000

Tartar

1000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Low 90’s

Al B

eta

rra

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with

evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

Annual Water budgets in 90’s until Kutt Barrage

Page 8: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

14000

4000

1000

8000

8000

1200

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

9000

10000

Tartar

4000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Average 2000’s

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

24000

6500

2000

13000

13000

2000

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

DiyalaBagdad

16000

16000

Tartar

8000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

High 2000’s

Al B

eta

rra

9000

3000

350

6000

5000

600

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

5500

7000

Tartar

2000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Low 2000’s

Al B

eta

rra

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm

Annual Water budgets in 2000’s Kutt Barrage

Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with

evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

Page 9: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm

16000

Tigris

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

9600

4000

2400

53000

Tigris

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

31800

13250

7950

7000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

4200

1750

1050

22000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

13200

5500

3300

18000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

10800

4500

2700

5000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

3000

1250

750

13000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

7800

3250

1950

8000

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

4800

2000

1200

40000

Tigris

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

24000

10000

6000

60%

Percentage based on

channel capacities

25%

15%

Average

80’s

Low 80’s High 80’s

Average

90’s

Low 90’s High 90’s

Average

2000’s

Low 2000’s High

2000’s

Annual Water budgets below Kutt Barrage

5000

900

800025005000

60004300

270 2200

Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with

evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

Page 10: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

Tigris

Karkheh

Kutt barrage

Al B

eta

rra

Amarah

After Kutt barrageFlow diversion into

Hawizeh marsh

Flow diversion above

Amarah barrage Flow of tigris towards

Basra

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

flo

w (

mc

m)

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

flo

w (

mc

m)

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

flo

w (

mc

m)

Ave

rag

e m

on

thly

flo

w (

mc

m)

% Exceedence % Excedence

% Excedence % Excedence

Flow intensity, duration, probability below Kutt Barrage

2000 mcm (208mcm monthly)2000 mcm (208mcm monthly)

5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly)5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly)

4000 mcm (330 mcm monthly)

Page 11: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

1/1/2…

5/1/2…

9/1/2…

Vo

lum

e (

mc

m)

Flo

w (

cm

s)

Flow out with reservoir

Flow out without

reservoirVolume with irrigation

Dams

Dam effects

Current Dam

Volume (mcm)

Inflow (mcm)

Outflow (mcm) % reduction

Evaporation (mcm)

evap/vol

Batman 1100 1105 874 21% 50 5%

Dicile 580 674 659 2% 24 4%

Kralkize 1920 342 305 11% 54 3%

Mosul 11110 18799 17972 4% 416 4%

Dokan 6800 5799 4587 21% 309 5%

Dibbis 4000 4953 3932 21% 154 4%

Hemrin 2500 3318 2670 20% 78 3%

Derbinkha

n3000

3250 2866 12% 142 5%

Karkheh 5900 1978 1086 45% 40 1%

Tartar 11000 9000 - - 2260 21%

Total 47910 49219 35519 3529

Future Dams

RiverCountr

yVolume

Taqtaq Lesser Zab Iraq 2858

Bekhme Greater zab Iraq 8300

BakeermanGreater zab Iraq 500

Mandava Greater zab Iraq 2000

Hakkari Greater zab Turkey 2000

GarzanTrib upper tigris Turkey 145

KayserTrib upper tigris Turkey 1970

DiliniTrib upper tigris Turkey 200

SilvanTrin upper tigris Turkey 1175

Cizie Upper tigris Turkey 200

Illisu Upper tigris Turkey 1041027777

Page 12: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

Current and Post Dams

14000

4000

1000

8000

8000

1200

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

9000

10000

Tartar

4000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Average 2000’s - Current

Al B

eta

rra

10000

2000

1000

6000

4000

1000

Greater zab

Tigris

Lesser Zab

Diyala

Karkheh

Bagdad

7000

7000

Tartar

3000

Kutt barrage

Samarra barrage

Mosul

Average 2000’s – Post dams*

Al B

eta

rra

600

2400

1000

*Assumptions based on current dam sizes,

inflow and outflow calculations

50% reduction

4800

2000 900

1200

900

Page 13: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage

Conclusions

Open source of knowledge about water is key to avoid

conflicts

Open source models and data availability publically is

very important

Mekong river basin is a good example

The water conflicts are well known in other river basins

such as Ganges, Nile, Amazonia, Danube, Colorado and

other major rivers around the world.

As SWAT modelers we could model these basins and

publish the information in a peer review process to bring

focus to the problem and contribute to the awareness to

countries that have no or poor information.

Page 14: R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma47000 12000 7000 22000 40000 3500 Greater zab Tigris Lesser Zab Diyala Karkheh Bagdad 27000 42000 Tartar 5000 Kutt barrage Samarra barrage