Regional Security Issues in Regional Security Issues in China-US RelationsChina-US Relations

Guo XuetangGuo Xuetang Department of International Studies & Department of International Studies &

Public AdministrationPublic AdministrationSHUPLSHUPL

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Case Study: North Korean Nuclear CrisisCase Study: North Korean Nuclear Crisis

• The Six Party Talks– The Six-Party Talks are aimed at ending North Kore

a's nuclear program through a negotiating process involving China, the United States, North and South Korea, Japan, and Russia.

– Since the talks began in August 2003, the negotiations have been bedeviled by diplomatic standoffs among individual Six-Party member states--particularly between the United States and North Korea.

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– In April 2009, North Korea quit the talks and announced that it would reverse the ongoing disablement process called for under the Six-Party agreements and restart its Yongbyon nuclear facilities.

– Because Pyongyang appears intent on maintaining its nuclear program, some experts are pessimistic the talks can achieve anything beyond managing the North Korean threat.

– The Obama administration has been pursuing talks with the other four countries in the process to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiation table.

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• Objectives for the United States – For Washington, the Six-Party Talks serve as a mean

s to make North Korea's nuclear weapons program a multinational problem rather than an issue to be solved through bilateral discussion.

– Although Washington worries about the Communist state's poor human rights record, the chief U.S. concern remains Pyongyang's nuclear program and possible sale of nuclear materials and technology to hostile states and terrorist groups.

– As part of any agreement, Washington wants the reclusive state to accept IAEA monitors in the country.

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• Objectives for North Korea– The regime of Kim Jong-Il seeks a nonaggression sec

urity pledge from the United States, which deploys more than twenty-five thousand troops in South Korea.

– Pyongyang also wants normalized relations with Washington.

– North Korea wants unfettered access to economic aid from other Six-Party countries and hopes for the completion of the two light-water reactors promised in the 1994 Agreed Framework.

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• Objectives for China– Beijing serves as Pyongyang's long-standing ally and

main trade partner, and has used its influence with the Kim regime to bring North Korea to the Six-Party negotiating table.

– China's ability to play such a role in the talks boosts its relations with Washington. Like South Korea, China fears a rush of refugees across its border and has provided North Korea with energy and food assistance.

– Beijing has been resistant to implementing stringent UN resolutions imposing sanctions against Pyongyang. North Korea also serves as a buffer zone between China and U.S. troops in South Korea.

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• Obstacles to the Talks – An unpredictable North Korean regime. Despite shi

fting ground on holding bilateral talks, the United States has found North Korea erratic in negotiations and actions.

– Differing approaches by Six-Party governments. While Japan and the United States consistently have pushed for strong sanctions in response to North Korean weapons testing, China, South Korea, and Russia often have pushed for less stringent sanctions out of fear that a sudden toppling of the regime would lead to major refugee influxes.

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– U.S. resistance to bilateral negotiations. For much of the Bush administration's tenure, Washington resisted holding one-on-one talks with Pyongyang, preferring the Six-Party Talks so that any compromises with the Kim regime were framed as part of multilateral negotiations.

– Regime succession in Pyongyang.

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• How to Solve the Policy Puzzle– So far, the Six-Party Talks have failed to denuclearize

North Korea and have brought few results. – After Pyongyang walked out of the Six-Party Talks in

May 2009, the Obama administration has pursued negotiations with the other parties in the forum to signal that it hasn't abandoned the goal of North Korea's denuclearization.

– However, on trying to restore the negotiating track with North Korea, the Obama administration could also offer strictly bilateral U.S.-North Korea negotiations.

Table layout of Six-Party TalksTable layout of Six-Party Talks

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• Closer Sino-US Cooperation on the Korean Peninsula?– Both sides are maintaining the momentum of coopera

tion with increasing mutual understanding and trust. – Apart from bilateral contact with North Korea, the Unit

ed States is insisting on a multilateral approach, continuing to persuade China to share responsibility for a nuclear-free Peninsula.

– The indispensable China's role in solving the nuclear crisis.